Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

Which news are you referring to?

 

Russians are crushing it:

 

[cubsfan]

On 2/9/2025 at 3:43 PM, John Hjorth said:

Mike [ @cubsfan ], @Spekulatius, @UK et. al.,

 

How do you asses recent developments, within the last few days? Are we by now able to see the end of these warfare activities, to stop all the meaningless madness.

 

Trump isn't saying much. We'll have to see what he and Putin have up their sleeves.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-it-neither-confirms-nor-denies-trump-putin-phone-call-2025-02-10/

 

 

[nsx5200]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/trump-hesgeth-ukraine-russia-peace-nato-b2697001.html

"Pete Hegseth told Nato defence ministers the US won’t support Nato membership for Ukraine - or most of its peace talk platform - leaving Zelensky little room to negotiate,"

 

Unless Hegseth has gone off the rails already, then we can assume this direction is coming from Trump.  IMHO, there's nothing Trump wants from Ukraine, so they're being thrown under the bus.  Maybe Ukraine can try to offer land/subsidies for Trump companies to build his hotels at?

 

Note that The Independent leans left.

https://www.allsides.com/news-source/independent-media-bias

[cubsfan]

8 minutes ago, nsx5200 said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/trump-hesgeth-ukraine-russia-peace-nato-b2697001.html

"Pete Hegseth told Nato defence ministers the US won’t support Nato membership for Ukraine - or most of its peace talk platform - leaving Zelensky little room to negotiate,"

 

Unless Hegseth has gone off the rails already, then we can assume this direction is coming from Trump.  IMHO, there's nothing Trump wants from Ukraine, so they're being thrown under the bus.  Maybe Ukraine can try to offer land/subsidies for Trump companies to build his hotels at?

 

Note that The Independent leans left.

https://www.allsides.com/news-source/independent-media-bias

 

Yeah, not really. President Trump would like to see the remaining young men of Ukraine not get wiped off the face of the earth - at least that way, they can have a normal life instead of ending up dead. Ukraine should have settle this war in the last 24 months when they were dealing from a position of strength. Major miscalculation on Zelensky's part.

 

Should this war end - Putin gets a big win - no NATO membership, Zelensky wins - what's left of his country and people gets saved from defeat.

[Sweet]

14 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Yeah, not really. President Trump would like to see the remaining young men of Ukraine not get wiped off the face of the earth - at least that way, they can have a normal life instead of ending up dead. Ukraine should have settle this war in the last 24 months when they were dealing from a position of strength. Major miscalculation on Zelensky's part.

 

Should this war end - Putin gets a big win - no NATO membership, Zelensky wins - what's left of his country and people gets saved from defeat.

There wasn’t an opportunity to do.  At no point have Ukraine been in a position of strength either.  An effective counter attack which pushed the Russians back from Kyiv, Kherson and Kharkiv still leaves the Russians with nearly all the land they took in the South West.

[cubsfan]

38 minutes ago, Sweet said:

There wasn’t an opportunity to do.  At no point have Ukraine been in a position of strength either.  An effective counter attack which pushed the Russians back from Kyiv, Kherson and Kharkiv still leaves the Russians with nearly all the land they took in the South West.

 

There was no opportunity to do so, precisely because the last administration refused to enter into negotiations with Putin. Neither did Europe. The counter attack left them in the best position they were going to get. Looks like Ukraine will lose plenty of territory, but they get to save what they have left. That's why it should have been settled when Ukraine was stopped.

[Xerxes]

Hard cold truth (mostly anyways)

 

 

[Warner]

Ukraine has lost this war. They need to end it without delay to save what they have remaining. Vladimir will get pretty well all he wants as he has the upper hand on the ground. 

[Spekulatius]

The problem with this deal is there is no enforcement. Supposedly European troops shall enforce the deal and others TBD but neither seem to be involved in the negotiations. The US has already excused themselves. This pretty much guarantees  that this remains a frozen conflict.

 

Also, since when is it a good idea to give away freebies before the negotiations even begin? Putin hasn’t given anything. 

[Xerxes]

We don’t know. He may be wanting something somewhere else. Not everything is and revolves about Ukraine. Russia clearly cares about Ukraine far more than America cares. 

 

ex: no trouble from Kremlin when (not if) Greenland is annexed etc. That is the whole idea as to why great power want to talk to each other directly. Quid pro quo. 
 

But like John Bolton said on CNN, in Russia they are probably drinking vodka directly from the bottle after yesterday announcement. 

Edited Friday at 12:32 PM by Xerxes

[cubsfan]

The Europeans had every opportunity to get in front of this potential settlement long ago.

If President Trump pulls this off, it will be somethng.

[Spekulatius]

Europe better get the nukes ready because it’s clear that the USA is going to break away from the NATO. The nuclear umbrella is gone too, but at least the French and UK have some Nukes of their own but it may not be enough deterrence. Everyone needs nukes, that’s the lesson of this war.

[Dinar]

51 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Europe better get the nukes ready because it’s clear that the USA is going to break away from the NATO. The nuclear umbrella is gone too, but at least the French and UK have some Nukes of their own but it may not be enough deterrence. Everyone needs nukes, that’s the lesson of this war.

Why can't you just have a well trained conventional force?  In 1967 and 1973, Israel defeated armies of countries that had 10x the population.  The problem is that most European countries, excluding Poland, don't have a real standing army beyond 10-50K men.  If Israel is capable of fielding 500K army on a population of 7-10MM (Jews+Druze+Bedouins), then why couldn't Ukraine field two million on a 40MM population?

[Spekulatius]

41 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Why can't you just have a well trained conventional force?  In 1967 and 1973, Israel defeated armies of countries that had 10x the population.  The problem is that most European countries, excluding Poland, don't have a real standing army beyond 10-50K men.  If Israel is capable of fielding 500K army on a population of 7-10MM (Jews+Druze+Bedouins), then why couldn't Ukraine field two million on a 40MM population?

Because Russia can use nuclear blackmail. The only real means against nuclear blackmail is having nukes yourself.

[sleepydragon]

After this Xi will be emboldened to invade taiwan. Trump is not going to do much about it.

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

After this Xi will be emboldened to invade taiwan. Trump is not going to do much about it.

This is one concern. The bigger concern is that next conflict in Europe will have Chinese troops involved too. The world is just to get divided up here.

 

Europeans really need to arm themselves with nuclear weapons well as strengthen the conventional forces. They better be home made or they may not work (kill switch) if use is deemed against US interests.

[Xerxes]

Nice. A blend of fact and fiction when it comes to Israel. 
 

Israel DID have nuclear weapons in 1973 and used it as BLACKMAIL to get critical weapon delivery from Nixon and Kissinger. Now I would have done the same thing if I were them. Nothing wrong with that.
 

But let us not assume that Israel is too noble to blackmail. 

And to this day, we don’t know if Israel attacks USS Liberty on purpose or not in 1967. What was that for ? It is thick with controversies. Hell, an Iraqi mistake with USS Stark in the mid-1980s came out cleaner than that. 

Back on Ukraine, it needs to take the loss so that it can grow to be the fortress that needs to be. After this round 2, Ukraine will have the most advanced, combat-ready military force on the continent. That is an asset. 
 

Yes no one can trust Putin with any settlement. But you can trust that Trump doesn’t want another 2021 Kabul situation. And you can trust that once there is a ceasefire there would a reckoning in Moscow to take stock of what was accomplished. That will keep them busy. 
 

The question is Zelenskyy the man to lead Ukraine toward that settlement. 
 

 

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Back on Ukraine, it needs to take the loss so that it can grow to be the fortress that needs to be. After this round 2, Ukraine will have the most advanced, combat-ready military force on the continent. That is an asset. 
 

Yes no one can trust Putin with any settlement. But you can trust that Trump doesn’t want another 2021 Kabul situation. And you can trust that once there is a ceasefire there would a reckoning in Moscow to take stock of what was accomplished. That will keep them busy. 
 

The question is Zelenskyy the man to lead Ukraine toward that settlement. 

 

Right. The signal to Europe is this: you take the lead on Russia, you have plenty of resources, and you need to shoulder most of the burden that you have been unwilling to...The Marshall Plan is over. The US will take care of the seas - particularly the North Atlantic and the Pacific with Taiwan.

Edited Friday at 02:55 PM by cubsfan

[Spekulatius]

US needs lots of ships. I bought some HII this morning at the open. It may be a crappy shipbuilder but it’s the only one we got.

 

Obviously not investment advice.

[Hektor]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

It may be a crappy shipbuilder but it’s the only one we got.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

US needs lots of ships. I bought some HII this morning at the open. It may be a crappy shipbuilder but it’s the only one we got.

 

Obviously not investment advice.

@Spekulatius @Hektor

 

you gents do know about Electric Boat, don’t you ?

 

no I don’t mean a boat that is electric. But rather the name of shipyard business owned by General Dynamics for decades now. 

[John Hjorth]

Munich Security Conference 2025 (MSC2025)[Friday, February 14^th 2:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.] : The U.S. in the World - J.D. Vance, Vice President, United States of America.

 

I have never before spent time really listening to Mr. Vance before. I simply must say : Godd***it he is good! He is of another, - totally different! - caliber [or breed] of a speaker than the incumbent POTUS.

 

The messages from Mr. Vance passes pretty clear and as obvious into the content inside the upper part of my Northern European, semi-thick, semi-neanderthaloid skull.

 

Does anyone hear anything in the speech by Mr. Vance below the three upper levels in Graham's Hierarchy of Disagreement? :

 

Edited Friday at 05:25 PM by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

@Spekulatius @Hektor

 

you gents do know about Electric Boat, don’t you ?

 

no I don’t mean a boat that is electric. But rather the name of shipyard business owned by General Dynamics for decades now. 

Yes we do, but it’s diluted with Gulfstream, a mediocre military IT business and land systems (Abrahams tank, Stryker).

 

They are good operators but I don’t like many of their business they are in especially IT and Land systems.

 

Anything catering to the army will shrink, imo.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Munich Security Conference 2025 (MSC2025)[Friday, February 14^th 2:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.] : The U.S. in the World - J.D. Vance, Vice President, United States of America.

 

I have never before spent time really listening to Mr. Vance before. I simply must say : Godd***it he is good! He is of another, - totally different! - caliber [or breed] of a speaker than the incumbent POTUS.

 

The messages from Mr. Vance passes pretty clear and as obvious into the content inside the upper part of my Northern European, semi-thick, semi-neanderthaloid skull.

 

Does anyone hear anything in the speech by Mr. Vance below the three upper levels in Graham's Hierarchy of Disagreement? :

 

 

Before 1 year ago, JD was an unknown in the bulk of the country. But he was among the smartest in the Senate, with an impressive background of being a self-made man. If this term goes well for the current adminstration - you're looking at the next US President in my opinion.

[Hektor]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

@Spekulatius @Hektor

 

you gents do know about Electric Boat, don’t you ?

 

no I don’t mean a boat that is electric. But rather the name of shipyard business owned by General Dynamics for decades now.

@Xerxes Thanks for this. I've looked at EB when looking at BWXT, which is a sub contractor/supplier to EB. BWXT is a monopoly of interest to me. It's always pricey :(.