Russia-Ukrainian War

[cubsfan]

^^^ Awful. Artillery was the big killer in WWII combat, accounting for, I believe 60% of casualties.

[John Hjorth]

13 hours ago, Warner said:

Navalny was indeed very brave and certainly dedicated to his cause. He deserves respect and admiration for this. He certainly did not deserve what he received from the Russian state.

 

But, the Russian state controls the domestic narrative and 75% of the Russian people did not know or care about him. This is really missing from the conversation. Navalny was more well know outside of Russia than inside because he had foreign support and funding. He had some support in the middle class, as these few in Russia in a way turned on Putin's gov't slightly in the past 10 years.

 

Everyone here blames all on Putin and what is left out is that he has a large apparatus in gov't that supports him and 99% of these agree with his policies. 

 

Russia does not want and will not accept to go back to the chaos of the 1990's. They are not going to throw their unabashed support around an unknown (and state media will ensure he is never known). They will stay with Putin until he decides who is the next leader in Russia as he represents stability and don't forget in his very very long time in power the lives of most Russians has improved.

 

I am not a Putin supporter, but we all need to be pragmatic and look at this from the Russian perspective.

 

@Warner,

 

Thank you for sharing, and thereby providing insights to Russian thinking [, in general] to CoBF members, also presented by you in a polite manner here.

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, Pelagic said:

For Russia troops are fungible. 10,000 NKs on the border with Ukraine somewhere in Russia allows them to transfer troops to occupied Ukraine. Or as some are suspecting they'll employ them in an offensive against Ukrainian held positions in Kursk.

 

Russian troops who volunteer to fight in Ukraine get paid around $4,000 a month which is part of the "allure" of joining the Russian military, as pay is significantly higher than what they can make elsewhere. And also why Russia has had some success recruiting non-Russians to join their military. I wonder if NK troops will be paid similarly or does that money just get kicked up to the NK regime.  There's also been some mention of Russian contract soldiers who signed up to fight in Ukraine not receiving benefits when fighting in Kursk (Russia) and their families being denied the death benefits they would have normally received. No doubt Russia faces an ever growing manpower shortage but perhaps there's some more nuanced issues with regards to the specific terms of contract soldiers that they think NK troops might help alleviate.

 

Awesome post, @Pelagic!,

 

Thank you! We'll eventually see how this turns out, over time.

 

I'm sure, we'll in the end eventually know, because the Russian State simply is incabable of controlling and limiting the flow of all kinds of information World Wide during a[n] <undefined> number of information channels out of control af the Russian State. [, the Russian State still 'anchored in the truth of the past'.]

[Spekulatius]

On 10/28/2024 at 10:34 AM, dwy000 said:

Have things gotten so bad in North Korea they're now selling soldiers?

They probably can’t feed them so they may have decided they can out them to use as relatively well paid mercenaries.

 

Peronally, I think the US and NATO should encourage  South a Korea to enter the chat, because they have something that almost no western nation has any more:

 

They can mass produce decent weapons alike ships, artillery, tanks,  rockets etc like from an assembly line as was the case in WW2 on fairly short notice. My guess is they can do that because  they are an in industrial powerhouse with deep supply chains within the chaebols.

 

I do believe that with US and eastern encouragement, funding and maybe some tech help, they could do wonders to overcome the advantage the Russians have in material quantity. And while the SK we pans are not always top notch compared to US or European ones, they are overall much better then the Russian ones. They have already delivered some weapon systems to Ukraine as far as I know , but not in large enough numbers to make a difference.

 

There is an added benefit that it would make Korea more resilient against NK and Chinese aggression.

Edited October 30 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

Here is a fairly new YouTube video by Anders Puck Nielsen [Personally, he is growing on me] :

 

YouTube - Anders Puck NIelsen [October 28^th 2024] : Nuclear weapons and security guarantees for Ukraine.

 

 

 

[Sweet]

On 10/29/2024 at 12:23 AM, Spekulatius said:

because they have something that almost no western nation has any more:

 

They can mass produce decent weapons alike ships, artillery, tanks,  rockets etc like from an assembly line as was the case in WW2 on fairly short notice. My guess is they can do that because  they are an in industrial powerhouse with deep supply chains within the chaebols.

 

This is a major problem for the West.

[UK]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/russia-ukraine-war.html

 

American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening.

 

Edited November 2 by UK

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, UK said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/russia-ukraine-war.html

 

American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening.

 

That indeed seems to be the case. The Russian steamroller in action and the Ukraine does not have enough material and men to counter it.

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/russia-ukraine-war.html

 

American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening.

 

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

That indeed seems to be the case. The Russian steamroller in action and the Ukraine does not have enough material and men to counter it.

 

And then we have :

 

AP News - World News [October 22^nd 2024] : US defense chief promises Ukraine what it needs to fight Russia but goes no further.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Now how the h*ll does all that add up?

[UK]

8 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

And then we have :

 

AP News - World News [October 22^nd 2024] : US defense chief promises Ukraine what it needs to fight Russia but goes no further.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Now how the h*ll does all that add up?

 

But what else he is going to say officially? Perhaps It is not unlike a CEO of a failing company, expressing his optimism to the end, no mater realities.

 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/29/ukraine-is-now-struggling-to-cling-on-not-to-win

 

The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armoured punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning.

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, @UK,

 

So what comes first?, Ukraine getting run over, or Russian war machine running out of steam.

[UK]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Thank you, @UK,

 

So what comes first?, Ukraine getting run over, or Russian war machine running out of steam.

 

Well for sure all this is way above my paygrade to answer:). But I quess Ukraine will get some more millitary equipment from the outgoing US administration so the question of sudden defeat would be postponed for another 6 or 12 month. But I think the real question is what will happen if US elections is won by a candidate promising to end everything in a few days. But would it necessarilly mean some kind of peace (temporary or not) or even more escallation (IIRC Trump himself boasted he once suggested that he would have bombed Moscow if Russia invaded Ukraine), anybody's guess is as good or likelly better than mine:). I pesonally think the chances of some kind of a truce or a frozen conflict are much higher with him.

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-the-bully-with-a-heart-of-gold-2024-presidential-election-dd922dd6

 

Vladimir Putin knows it too, in Mr. Trump’s telling: “I said to Putin, ‘Vladimir, we have a great relationship.’ I got along with him great. He’s a different kind of a character, I will tell you, much different than anybody under—I knew him very well. I said, ‘Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow.’ I said, ‘We’re friends. I don’t want to do it, but I have no choice.’ He goes, ‘No way.’ I said, ‘Way.’ I said, ‘You’re going to be hit so hard, and I’m going to take those f— domes right off your head.’ Because, you know, he lives under the domes.”

 

Edited November 3 by UK

[Spekulatius]

if you have not heard nothing about weapon packages, it because they slowed down to a trickle in the last 6 months or so.
 

If Ukraine gets run over, Europe has a huge problem on their hands. Start with 15 million + refugees.

 

Germany for example has only 180k troops and combat readiness is questionable. They may have to think about getting the draft implemented again, which creates a large reserve force over time. During the Cold War, the Bundeswehr had a 800k reserve force, mostly from ex draft, now it’s just a few ten thousands.

 

Or perhaps there are other solutions, but 180k are not going to cut it.

 

If Putin wins he is going to re-arm and start another adventure 5-10 years from now, when oil prices happen to be high again.

 

You can stick your head in the sand and avoid confronting a problem, but in the end the problem will run you over. From a politicians perspective this preferably happens under the next administrations watch.

[Blugolds]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

Or perhaps there are other solutions, but 180k are not going to cut it.

 

If Putin wins he is going to re-arm and start another adventure 5-10 years from now, when oil prices happen to be high again.

 

 

A little different though, rather than a proxy war, Germany IS a member of NATO. I think Putin went into Ukraine because he knew he could without much issue, sure US gives Ukraine some token help but no real game changer help, not stopping Russia, just making it slightly more inconvenient. That would be totally different if Putin attempted the same with a NATO country.

 

US has an embassy in Ukraine but no bases, the US has several bases in Germany and before the Germans had anything to worry about Putin would have had to already have made a significant push West through countries with increased US presence and NATO countries, including Poland. 

 

https://www.army.mil/article/265027/army_establishes_permanent_garrison_in_poland

 

Putin doesnt get further than Ukraine. 

 

Trump is all talk about bombing Moscow, that is ridiculous and no way he told Putin that. Its a talking point to portray strength to voters, Putin knows he wouldnt do it because it would be the start of WWIII and to even suggest it is irresponsible IMO, just like if Putin threatened to bomb Washington, to even mention it is irresponsible IMO. Just like Putins threats to use "tactical Nukes".

 

The truth is, people may not really like Putins invasion of Ukraine but he is more willing to sacrifice troops to do it than anybody else is to stop him, so he gets a pass, the US gives some token defense tools but nothing that makes a significant difference in the battle because its not worth escalation. The juice isnt worth the squeeze, unfortunate for Ukrainians, but thats just the way it is. Now with expendable North Korean mercenaries, Ukraine has already lost as Russia has addressed the attrition issue with its own citizens by now securing fodder that nobody will miss or have issue with, very low risk for Russia and it cost Ukraine everything, those arent good odds and its only a matter of time. 

[John Hjorth]

@Blugolds,

 

Respectfully, and for backdrop information purposes only, what is your nationality?

[Spekulatius]

Oof, This is what we are up against.:

https://x.com/ThorntonWa47373/status/1853029791638987136

 

Idiots like this guy are everywhere, especially on X. They don’t even know how to use photoshop.

 

Edited November 3 by Spekulatius

[Blugolds]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

@Blugolds,

 

Respectfully, and for backdrop information purposes only, what is your nationality?

 

American

 

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, @Blugolds.

[Sweet]

Not the take I was expecting:

 

 

[Sweet]

And as much as I hate to admit it, this rings true.  
 

 

Some countries in Europe have done their bit.  But the biggest countries like the UK (where I am from), Germany, France, Italy, Spain…. come on.  We still aren’t meeting our 2% defence spending when the wolf is at the door.  We’ve got complacent, what’s it going to take to wake up.

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Not the take I was expecting:

 

 

Kasparov is a pompous fool, he knows chess and probably nothing else!  He can't pick wives (on number 3), and he is no strategist.  Trump is not loyal to Putin, but US does not need to spend money on helping Ukraine, Germany needs Ukraine to fight, so Germany should pick up the tab.  I said this two years ago, and will say it again, instead of sending weapons and money to Ukraine, offer every Russian serviceman who deserts and every Russian male/female between 20-40 who leaves Russia $50K and $5K respectively plus permanent residency in US/Canada/Germany.  Watch Russian army and population melt away, and comrade Putin will have to negotiate.   Instead, the pompous moron Garry wants hundreds of billions of US aid and hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives to be wasted while he is sitting on Upper West Side of Manhattan scratching himself and saying do I look like Napoleon or Bismark!

[Pelagic]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

 I said this two years ago, and will say it again, instead of sending weapons and money to Ukraine, offer every Russian serviceman who deserts and every Russian male/female between 20-40 who leaves Russia $50K and $5K respectively plus permanent residency in US/Canada/Germany.  Watch Russian army and population melt away, and comrade Putin will have to negotiate.   

 

This would have worked in the first 6 months of the war and should have been done then but almost all soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine currently are contract soldiers who are *usually* from the lowest socioeconomic rung of Russian society, signing up to fight for a few thousand dollars a month. You're just creating an even larger incentive to sign up with a defection bonus. And an even larger incentive for Russian commanders to throw their men into attacks they're unlikely to survive. Ukraine does pay out defection bonuses for those surrendering equipment, however Russia has gone to extreme lengths to target those who defected in order to deter it (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68337794).

 

Russia has for practical purposes an almost unlimited capacity to send people from its poorest regions to fight in Ukraine and take casualties at current rates. And somewhat counterintuitively as their economy worsens, higher interest rates, cost of living increases etc. that capacity increases because the pool of potential recruits who need that $4,000 a month or so grows. And it's not clear that people in the more prosperous regions of Russia have a strong view on the deaths of their countrymen, especially since they're "volunteering" for service in Ukraine unlike as was the case during their invasion of Afghanistan which utilized conscripts where casualties were a major reason for their withdrawal.

 

It's a tough position for Ukraine currently, and their best option is still the one that the West has sought to avoid all along, hit Russia in their pocketbook by targeting crude exports. Who knows, it's been primarily Biden who's discouraged long range strikes into Russia, maybe if the UK and France take the lead on things, that changes the calculus as they've been in favor of allowing them.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 7 by Pelagic

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Kasparov is a pompous fool, he knows chess and probably nothing else!  He can't pick wives (on number 3), and he is no strategist.  Trump is not loyal to Putin, but US does not need to spend money on helping Ukraine, Germany needs Ukraine to fight, so Germany should pick up the tab.  I said this two years ago, and will say it again, instead of sending weapons and money to Ukraine, offer every Russian serviceman who deserts and every Russian male/female between 20-40 who leaves Russia $50K and $5K respectively plus permanent residency in US/Canada/Germany.  Watch Russian army and population melt away, and comrade Putin will have to negotiate.   Instead, the pompous moron Garry wants hundreds of billions of US aid and hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives to be wasted while he is sitting on Upper West Side of Manhattan scratching himself and saying do I look like Napoleon or Bismark!

Why does Germany need to lick up the tab? They don’t need Ukraine to continue fighting either, there are a lot of countries between Ukraine, Russia and Germany.

 

I do agree that low crude prices is one arrow to hit both Iran and Russia in their pocketbook nd targeting the Shadow fleet would be one way to do so.

[Sweet]

Germany shouldn’t pick up the tab alone, Europe should, together if it is important to them - and I think it is.

 

Europe has sent a lot of money already, more total than America when all added together.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/

 

This narrative that Europe hasn’t helped is just wrong.  The question is it enough.

Edited November 7 by Sweet

[John Hjorth]

Reuters - Europe - Ukraine and Russia at War [November 8^th 2024] : Putin is ready to talk to Trump but his Ukraine demands are unchanged, Kremlin says.

 

I wonder what will happen when these two goats [, not to be confused with GOATs, here rams] butt heads in the near future.

 

Will Trumps approach for 'big rocket man' be similar to that applied against 'little rocket man'? [<- Now perhaps that turned out reading at least bit funny, if one has hit Friday mood and sentiment, but that was unintentional here.]