Russia-Ukrainian War

[Luke]

Never going to happen-->The end of the war should be the moment and opportunity for just the opposite, i.e. the redesign of an economic model no longer dominated by oligarchy and corruption, but where land and resources are controlled by and benefit all Ukrainians. This could form the basis for the transformation of the agricultural sector to make it more democratic and environmentally and socially sustainable. International policy and financial support should be geared towards this transformation, to benefit people and farmers rather than oligarchs and foreign financial interests.

 

You simply don't get any Western dollars or euros for free! 

 

 

 

[Luke]

After securing investments from prominent Western financial institutions, it channeled these funds through offshore companies located in tax havens like Cyprus and the Cayman Islands and into joint ventures with local firms to take over the land.72 The firm faces accusations of unlawful land acquisition, tax evasion, and illicit financial activity.73 NCH Capital played a key role in pushing for land reform in Ukraine: In 2015, its founder and CEO George Rohr was part of the high-level meetings involving the Ukrainian President and the US Secretary of Commerce that led Ukraine to agree on an IMF reform plan, as a condition for two US$1 billion loan guarantees from the US government.74

 

Those seem like nice guys! The best system in the world! Slava Ukraini! 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:39 PM, John Hjorth said:

 

 

@UK & @Spekulatius,

 

Again :

 

Reuters [September 11^th 2024] : Kremlin warns of escalation if US allows Kyiv to hit Russia with long-range missiles.

 

On 9/13/2024 at 4:13 AM, UK said:

 

Thanks. Well it seems they really do not like the idea this time: 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-west-will-be-fighting-directly-with-russia-if-it-lets-kyiv-use-long-2024-09-12/.

 

And honestly I have no idea what would be the best way forward, but I think odds are perhaps better than 50/50, it is only some loud barking one more time?

 

 

Barrons - From AFP News [September 13^th 2024] : Biden Says 'I Don't Think Much About Putin,' After Russia War Threats .

 

It is a bit funny, actually ... almost like the former POTUS talking about the little 'rocket man'.  I guess Putin is fuming in his office over being ignored. -Is he worried about the risk exposure of his 'modest cottage' [read : flamboyant palace] ?

[Luke]

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/biden-nato-effectively-declaring-war-on-russia/

[John Hjorth]

4 minutes ago, Luke said:

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/biden-nato-effectively-declaring-war-on-russia/

 

And now we are back to the question : 'Who started this?' Putin won't dare, otherwise he will be swept away from the surface of this planet.

[Spekulatius]

18 minutes ago, Luke said:

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/biden-nato-effectively-declaring-war-on-russia/

Thats an opinion piece, nothing more nothing less.

 

If what he states is true, then Iran and North Korea also have declared war.

 

All nonsense.

Edited September 14 by Spekulatius

[UK]

I am not sure Der Spegiel is serious source, but: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3906009-putin-consults-with-shamans-over-war-media.html

 

 

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, UK said:

I am not sure Der Spegiel is serious source, but: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3906009-putin-consults-with-shamans-over-war-media.html

 

 

Der Spiegel is legit, but I think the article in question was more or less from a freelance guest writer.

Edited September 16 by Spekulatius

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-17/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-kyiv-s-allies-start-to-look-at-how-it-could-work?srnd=homepage-europe

 

Ukrainians are strongly opposed to any territorial concessions, with 55% of respondents rejecting the idea in a poll released by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in July. However, the number of those categorically against giving up land drops to 38% if Kyiv is granted NATO and European Union membership as part of the deal.

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-targets-western-russian-regions-with-drones-russian-officials-says-2024-09-18/

 

Edited September 18 by UK

[UK]

On 9/14/2024 at 7:08 PM, John Hjorth said:

 

And now we are back to the question : 'Who started this?' Putin won't dare, otherwise he will be swept away from the surface of this planet.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/ukraine-use-of-weapons-in-russia-should-be-loosened-denmark-pm-frederiksen-says?srnd=homepage-europe

[John Hjorth]

4 hours ago, UK said:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/ukraine-use-of-weapons-in-russia-should-be-loosened-denmark-pm-frederiksen-says?srnd=homepage-europe

 

Thanks, @UK,

 

Yes, the whole proposition of red lines and Russia telling others what to do and not to do is absurd in the context of the actual situation exists because of Russian agression. The world simply does not work that way.

 

Exactly the same, when the POTUS, while asked about it, ignores Putin, answering 'I do not think much about 'him'', meaning 'Putin and his doings'.

Edited September 23 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

And that did not last long :

 

Lenta.ru [September 23^th 2024] : Russia responds to Danish PM's call to lift restrictions on strikes deep into the country

 

Subheader: Senator Dzhabarov : NATO countries will be held separately responsible for strikes deep into Russia.

 

What a nice guy he seems to be.

Edited September 23 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Putins idea how this works is you play by my rules but none apply to me.

<<insert nuclear saber rattling sound here>>
 

Obvious play on gullibility.

 

There are some nice mushroom clouds from Russian ammo depots in YT. Imagine what Ukraine could do with a few hundred cruise missiles.

[John Hjorth]

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Putins idea how this works is you play by my rules but none apply to me.

<<insert nuclear saber rattling sound here>> ...

 

 @Spekulatius,

 

This one of yours made me chukle. At least the last part, understood as the last line.

 

The first line of yours also contains the core of the problem at hand here : The Russian population's glaring lack of democratic attitude, by not stating demands on such matter at and against their Head of State/ruler.

 

Very frustrating to be a spectator to. I suppose this issue will take generations to solve and eventually get right going forward.

[Viking]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 @Spekulatius,

 

This one of yours made me chukle. At least the last part, understood as the last line.

 

The first line of yours also contains the core of the problem at hand here : The Russian population's glaring lack of democratic attitude, by not stating demands on such matter at and against their Head of State/ruler.

 

Very frustrating to be a spectator to. I suppose this issue will take generations to solve and eventually get right going forward.

@John Hjorth your comment gets at political culture. Russia has never had a democratic political culture (they tried for a brief time and not surprisingly it was a catastrophe). Democratic political cultures are not the norm - autocracies are the norm (I am including autocracies masquerading as democracies here). So I am not sure Russia will ever get one.

Edited September 23 by Viking

[Spekulatius]

I am not sure either. I think the chance that a Democratic Revolution swipes away Putin isn’t large, but surprising things have happened - Ceaucescu was one of those.

 

I think there is a much higher likelihood that a coup sipes away Putin and somebody close to his inner circle eff’s him off, but that’s not something we can predict , much less count on.

 

Andy Grove famously said “Only the paranoid survive” and that’s true even more so for dictators & autocrats than for business.

Edited September 23 by Spekulatius

[Warner]

Putin fully controls Russia top to bottom. Someone removing him is a fallacy by Western media/leaders. 

The vast majority of Russians support Putin, and all of them recall the chaos and tragedy of the 1990's. No Russian is willing to go back to their Western experiment.

 

Russia has a long history of sacrificing soldiers. It is likely they will rebuild their army stronger after this conflict ends and the West ends up facing a stronger force than prior to 2022. 

 

Peter the Great's closed associates told him after the battle of Narva, "Don't cry my lord, Russian mothers will have more sons". This may seem callous, but it is a fact that remains true. Russians can and will sacrifice.

 

The West needs to get out of this conflict and move on. Russia will not loose or give up any significant territory they have expropriated. Ukraine will be their buffer start for decades to come.

 

This was the West failure since 2014. 100% foreseeable. Even the current CIA director made this clear in the late 2000's

[John Hjorth]

14 hours ago, Viking said:

@John Hjorth your comment gets at political culture. Russia has never had a democratic political culture (they tried for a brief time and not surprisingly it was a catastrophe). Democratic political cultures are not the norm - autocracies are the norm (I am including autocracies masquerading as democracies here). So I am not sure Russia will ever get one.

 

Thanks, @Viking ,

 

Your post triggered quite some searches by me, I'll post some the search results later, because I think it would educational for all CoBF members [including me] reading or participating in this topic.

[John Hjorth]

7 hours ago, Warner said:

... The West needs to get out of this conflict and move on. ... 

 

Personally, I find that future outcome to become the actual happening of the total space of possible outcomes highly unlikely, @Warner. Because this war has alreeady been turned into a clash between ideologies, based on that noone trusts or beleives anymore that Russia would stop with Ukraine.

 

In the international society of countries, Putin has totally lost the last bit of personal credibility he had left. Nobody wants to talk with him about anything any more. To me, very hard to understand that the Russian population is indifferent about the overall direction for Russia set by Putin, i.e. now trading with shady companies, states hosting terrorists and rogue states.

[Warner]

In 2007, Putin, in Munich, made it clear NATO expansion to Ukraine and Georgia was not acceptable to Russia.

Bush invited Georgia and Ukraine to NATO the following year, and Russia took the threat, invaded Georgia, and stopped it.

Again post 2014, NATO expansion was proposed for Ukraine, in 2022 after the failed implementation of the Minsk accords, future peace plan proposal ignored in Dec 2021, Russia invaded Ukraine, and stopped NATO expansion.  

 

The pattern is starting to become clear....... You may or may not agree, but from the Russian prospect I promise to all they do not want more NATO alignment on their borders, especially, in countries they consider (right or wrong) in their sphere of influence. It is honestly full stop for them with this.. 

 

Russians are not indifferent. They just happen to support the Russian gov't position and they are fighting (and dying)for it.

 

International society of countries are N.A. Europe, Japan, Australia, and South Korean. Wealthy, but far from all. Very few others are interested, and the moment sanctions are lifted most trade will resume immediately for most.

 

Russia has what the world needs in resources, the relationship will not be like before, but the moment the war ends trade in the necessities will resume.

 

The USA fought directly the N. Vietnamese for over a decade and 20 years after the war the relationship was restored. In Ukraine, this will happen much faster as it was fought by proxy.

 

The West has more to gain from a good relationship with Russia. What your hear in the Western news is not the full story politically and culturally. This war is a stalemate as is right now and it is better to end the blood shed and move on.. There is nothing more to be gained, only more lost lives for nothing. Ukraine has lost.

 

And, if you don't like Putin then her very carefully what you with for. The replacement will not be more Western aligned in any sort of way.

 

Btw, I am Canadian but I work and live 200 km from the Russian border. Perspective can change it you are open to hear the opposite of the story. The truth is always buried somewhere in the middle

 

Thanks for the respectful conversation! very rare and appreciated.

[John Hjorth]

21 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Thanks, @Viking ,

 

Your post triggered quite some searches by me, I'll post some the search results later, because I think it would educational for all CoBF members [including me] reading or participating in this topic.

 

Freedom House [www.freedomhuuse.org] : Freedom in The World 2022 , p. 18 :

 

 

 

Wikipedia : The Economist Democracy Index :

 

 

Wikipedia : Political culture.

 

From the article about definition :

 

Quote

Political culture describes how culture impacts politics. Every political system is embedded in a particular political culture.^[1] Political culture is what the people, the voters, the electorates believe and do based on their understanding of the political system in which they have found themselves. These may be regarded as being bad or good placed side by side with global best practices or norms.

 

From the article and about Russian political culture :

 

Quote

Russia is a low-trust society, with even the highest trusted institutions of church and the military having more distrustful than trusting citizens, and with low participation in civil society.^[3][5] This means that Russia has a weak civic political culture. Furthermore, the authoritarian traditions of Russia mean that there is little support for democratic norms such as tolerance of dissent and pluralism.^[6] Russia has a history of authoritarian rulers from Ivan the Terrible to Joseph Stalin, who have engaged in massive repression of all potential political competitors, from the oprichnina to the Great Purge. The resulting political systems of Tsarist autocracy and Soviet communism had no space for independent institutions.^{[citation needed]}

 

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Warner said:

In 2007, Putin, in Munich, made it clear NATO expansion to Ukraine and Georgia was not acceptable to Russia.

Bush invited Georgia and Ukraine to NATO the following year, and Russia took the threat, invaded Georgia, and stopped it.

Again post 2014, NATO expansion was proposed for Ukraine, in 2022 after the failed implementation of the Minsk accords, future peace plan proposal ignored in Dec 2021, Russia invaded Ukraine, and stopped NATO expansion.  

 

The pattern is starting to become clear....... You may or may not agree, but from the Russian prospect I promise to all they do not want more NATO alignment on their borders, especially, in countries they consider (right or wrong) in their sphere of influence. It is honestly full stop for them with this.. 

 

Russians are not indifferent. They just happen to support the Russian gov't position and they are fighting (and dying)for it.

 

International society of countries are N.A. Europe, Japan, Australia, and South Korean. Wealthy, but far from all. Very few others are interested, and the moment sanctions are lifted most trade will resume immediately for most.

 

Russia has what the world needs in resources, the relationship will not be like before, but the moment the war ends trade in the necessities will resume.

 

The USA fought directly the N. Vietnamese for over a decade and 20 years after the war the relationship was restored. In Ukraine, this will happen much faster as it was fought by proxy.

 

The West has more to gain from a good relationship with Russia. What your hear in the Western news is not the full story politically and culturally. This war is a stalemate as is right now and it is better to end the blood shed and move on.. There is nothing more to be gained, only more lost lives for nothing. Ukraine has lost.

 

And, if you don't like Putin then her very carefully what you with for. The replacement will not be more Western aligned in any sort of way.

 

Btw, I am Canadian but I work and live 200 km from the Russian border. Perspective can change it you are open to hear the opposite of the story. The truth is always buried somewhere in the middle

 

Thanks for the respectful conversation! very rare and appreciated.

 

Thank you for sharing, @Warner,

 

And thank you for the personal backdrop information from and about you.

 

Very frustrating to think about this Gordian Knot and how to get the meaningless losses of many lives to stop.

[Warner]

It is a complete failure of diplomacy. It was totally unnecessary. All of this was for nothing significant. Neither side will reach their goals, but many have and will die.

[Luke]

2 hours ago, Warner said:

It is a complete failure of diplomacy. It was totally unnecessary. All of this was for nothing significant. Neither side will reach their goals, but many have and will die.

 

Russia has expanded its wealth of natural resources by more than 10%, and there is a lot of value in the eastern region, so I don't think "nothing" was gained here. But as you already said in previous posts, it was not smart at all from Ukraine to lean towards either side and could have existed perfectly fine if it would have run a more "swiss" position with a government that operates more strategically. I agree basically with everything you said in previous post though. Ukraine got into things way bigger than them, and the government didn't think about its position and the willingness of Russia to solidify itself there. Very tragic. 

Edited September 25 by Luke