Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

Yeah, I've been puzzled lately there is so little information in MSM about what's going on. The most logical explanation : Not much is going on.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

On the counteroffensive, it seems like Ukraine does very little lately and Russia is burning tremendous amount of material and manpower to take the Avdiivka salient. The videos that come from there are really something to check out (most NSFW).

 

Got it thanks for the broad update - yep both sides seem to be spinning their wheels while they destroy huge amounts of resources....which is to say nothing off the human death and casualities....

 

The Ukrainians from what I can see continue to outperform expectations.....especially expectations around casualty exchange ratios for an offensive party versus a defensive one....as well the same metric for equipment.

 

It seems the Russian army is /was in a poorer state than anybody could have imagined.......all the more reason to double efforts now to support Ukraine.......the Russian army is a shambles......but the reality of any standing army is that battle experience (assuming the resources to continue to support them) improves over time....Congress needs to stop dilly dallying on support.....there will be dimishing returns to aid provided in 2024/2025 as the Red Army gets its act together.

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/seizing-initiative-ukraine-waging-war-defense-dominant-world

[UK]

https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/

 

Amid all the pressure to root out corruption, I assumed, perhaps naively, that officials in Ukraine would think twice before taking a bribe or pocketing state funds. But when I made this point to a top presidential adviser in early October, he asked me to turn off my audio recorder so he could speak more freely. “Simon, you’re mistaken,” he says. “People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow.” 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by UK

[Gamecock-YT]

14 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Yeah, I've been puzzled lately there is so little information in MSM about what's going on. The most logical explanation : Not much is going on.

only so much blood you can put on the front page

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

only so much blood you can put on the front page

The Palestine conflict stole the eyeballs.

 

FWIW, there are probably more Russians dying each day than Palestinians right now.

[shhughes1116]

On 10/27/2023 at 8:44 PM, Xerxes said:

Either that, or Chuck Norris was the captain of USS Ranger. And he refused to fight easy enemies. 

USS Ranger, as well as the USS Wasp (modeled after the Yorktown class carriers but “value engineered” to avoid exceeding the remaining treaty tons) were both slower than the Yorktown class carriers so they were kept in the Atlantic, or at least that was the plan prior to the Battle of Coral Sea and subsequently Battle of Midway.  After those battles, the US was desperate for another Pacific carrier and the Wasp was the least-bad choice.  Her value-engineering likely played a part in her demise during the Guadalcanal campaign. 
 

sorry for the deviation from the regularly scheduled programming on Ukraine…

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia

 

The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable, forcing Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are the first and second world wars, in which Russia lost tens of millions.

...

“First I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades,” says General Zaluzhny. When those changes failed to make a difference, the general told his staff to dig out a book he once saw as a student. Its title was “Breaching Fortified Defence Lines”. It was published in 1941 by a Soviet major-general, P.S. Smirnov, who analysed the battles of the first world war. “And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”

...

Mr Putin is counting on a collapse in Ukrainian morale and Western support. There is no question in General Zaluzhny’s mind that a long war favours Russia, which has a population three times and an economy ten times the size of Ukraine. “Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people,” he says.  For now he has enough soldiers. But the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to sustain. “We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by UK

[Pelagic]

This is one of the best discussions on the current state of the war in Ukraine that I've heard. Both the interviewer and guest are very knowledgeable, and it leads to a high level discussion that's hard to find elsewhere.

 

 

[Xerxes]

Reading a book that covers the last chapter of the Romanov dynasty. I am half way through the book about when the first war starts. There are some eerily similarities to 2022 and the way it was conducted. 

 

 

^^^^

…. on the Russian side “the Supreme Command ordered, but the railroads decided” …. 
 

 

^^^^
the jealousy between the minister of war and C-in-C who was a Grand Duke. The then minister of war in 1914 sound very similar to today’ minister of defense: Shoigu  

 

 

 

 

^^^^
The minister of war holding up ammunitions and artillery shells to undermine the Grand Duke … lol

 

^^^^^
The Kaiser summarizing von Moltke battle plan: “Lunch in Paris, dinner in St Petersburg” 

 

[UK]

6 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Reading a book that covers the last chapter of the Romanov dynasty. I am half way through the book about when the first war starts. There are some eerily similarities to 2022 and the way it was conducted. 

 

. Not holding my breath...but, I wish the end this time would be also similar:)

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by UK

[John Hjorth]

Politico [November 3^rd 2023] : Ukraine faces economic crisis without quick EU aid, finance minister warns.

 

'The country needs Western help from the start of 2024 to fill an estimated $ 29 billion budget gap, Serhiy Marchenko says.'

 

Well, Switzerland recently got away with screwing [at least, so far] CS AT1  bond holders for USD 17 B.

 

**SHRUG**??

[ValueArb]

On 11/8/2023 at 9:45 PM, Xerxes said:

Reading a book that covers the last chapter of the Romanov dynasty. I am half way through the book about when the first war starts. There are some eerily similarities to 2022 and the way it was conducted. 

 

 

^^^^

…. on the Russian side “the Supreme Command ordered, but the railroads decided” …. 
 

 

^^^^
the jealousy between the minister of war and C-in-C who was a Grand Duke. The then minister of war in 1914 sound very similar to today’ minister of defense: Shoigu  

 

 

 

 

^^^^
The minister of war holding up ammunitions and artillery shells to undermine the Grand Duke … lol

 

^^^^^
The Kaiser summarizing von Moltke battle plan: “Lunch in Paris, dinner in St Petersburg” 

 

 

 

Von Moltke should have never kept strengthening the left, cost Germany the war.

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

 

Von Moltke should have never kept strengthening the left, cost Germany the war.

The book (and conventional view IIRC) considers the pulling of two army corps and one cavalry division from the outmost right-wing sweeping through the Low Countries as fatal.  

 

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/world/tired-ukrainian-troops-fight-to-hold-back-russian-offensive-they-come-like-zombies-9b4a31a1

 

The attacking Russian infantry are mostly poorly trained, often bunching up and making easy targets, say Ukrainian soldiers fighting here.  “They come like zombies. Some wear headlamps—a happy moment for any machine-gunner,” said Pvt. Bohdan Lysenko, who mans the 25 mm automatic cannon on a U.S.-made Bradley Fighting Vehicle with the 47th Brigade. Drone images show fields littered with the bodies of Russian infantry hit by artillery, including U.S.-supplied cluster munitions. But the Russians keep coming. “They’re not stupid. It’s a strategy,” said Cpl. Mykhailo Kotsyurba, a Bradley commander in the same company as Lysenko. “They look for weak points, then go there. We don’t have enough ammunition, but they have enough people.”

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, UK said:

They look for weak points, then go there. We don’t have enough ammunition, but they have enough people.”

Enough people AND the means to produce 80%+ of the war equipment they need….with the remaining 20% supplied by willing and able allies.

 

Ukraine has right on its side….but it lacks people vs. Russia….and is dependent on the kindness of strangers.

 

Russian’s strategy is clearly now just to hunker down and let the Ukrainians burn through young men and burn through the patience and good will of the Western allies…all for a few hundred feet of wasteland . Congress has kindly nodded to the future where the cheques for Ukraine dry up…maybe already have.

 

It should also be noted that for all the Putin war criminal & genocidal maniac talk (which is true)…..Israel in a few short weeks has killed more civilians in Gaza than Putin has in Ukraine in a year and half of war. The difference - Netanyahu is our genocidal maniac…..and the ends justify the means…..when those in ‘other’ countries that aren’t our friends accuse us of self-righteous hypocrisy this is what they mean. 
 

To be clear, my opinion is simple, Putin has committed war crimes & so has Netanyahu in the scale and scope of his retaliatory response….he had a right to strike back….but he has failed the proportionality test. You don’t fight monsters by becoming one yourself….cause then in a way they’ve won and you’ve lost.

 

When I say war crimes of course….i say it with a knowing nod to my earlier posts….to say war crimes in the context of great powers or their allies…is to assume some World State that sits above nation states exists….there really is no such justice system….the UN Security Council members + close allies are immune to the mock justice of the international system.

 

Its a dangerous world out there…..but the US is making a huge strategic mistake getting bogged down in Eastern Europe & the Middle East…the real cost isn’t $$$$$…it’s the loss of focus…..and strategic expense of creating new and greatly improved allies for column China….the China sun is rising in the East….and every minute and dollar spent not addressing this is a ‘win’ with a capital W for Xi.

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Enough people AND the means to produce 80%+ of the war equipment they need….with the remaining 20% supplied by willing and able allies.

 

Ukraine has right on its side….but it lacks people vs. Russia….and is dependent on the kindness of strangers.

 

Russian’s strategy is clearly now just to hunker down and let the Ukrainians burn through young men and burn through the patience and good will of the Western allies…all for a few hundred feet of wasteland . Congress has kindly nodded to the future where the cheques for Ukraine dry up…maybe already have.

 

It should also be noted that for all the Putin war criminal & genocidal maniac talk (which is true)…..Israel in a few short weeks has killed more civilians in Gaza than Putin has in Ukraine in a year and half of war. The difference - Netanyahu is our genocidal maniac…..and the ends justify the means…..when those in ‘other’ countries that aren’t our friends accuse us of self-righteous hypocrisy this is what they mean. 
 

To be clear, my opinion is simple, Putin has committed war crimes & so has Netanyahu in the scale and scope of his retaliatory response….he had a right to strike back….but he has failed the proportionality test. You don’t fight monsters by becoming one yourself….cause then in a way they’ve won and you’ve lost.

 

When I say war crimes of course….i say it with a knowing nod to my earlier posts….to say war crimes in the context of great powers or their allies…is to assume some World State that sits above nation states exists….there really is no such justice system….the UN Security Council members + close allies are immune to the mock justice of the international system.

 

Its a dangerous world out there…..but the US is making a huge strategic mistake getting bogged down in Eastern Europe & the Middle East…the real cost isn’t $$$$$…it’s the loss of focus…..and strategic expense of creating new and greatly improved allies for column China….the China sun is rising in the East….and every minute and dollar spent not addressing this is a ‘win’ with a capital W for Xi.

Interesting comment: last I remember. Hamas attacked Israel and took hostages. Israel then declared war on Hamas. They declared war, meaning the strongest is determined to win. Is it a war crime to give civilians ample time to evacuate the battlefield your enemy holds?

 

Why should Israel fight with there hands tied behind their back?

 

The objective of war is to win and destroy your enemy regardless of scale or proportion.

 

[Xerxes]

What if you were both wrong and right at the same time. Can you hold two different points of views at the same time ?
 

I think we best leave the discussion on current ME conflict outside this forum. It is very polarizing, and doesn’t bring the best in people. (Not in me anyways). 
 

 

[changegonnacome]

41 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Why should Israel fight with there hands tied behind their back?

 

41 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

The objective of war is to win and destroy your enemy regardless of scale or proportion.

 

Proportionality is a well accepted principle in matters of self-defense…it’s why it’s not acceptable to kill a man for bumping into you on the street even when he meant to do it….on this idea I can assure you we are on firm footing.

History has taught us that it’s near impossible to teach peace to the conquered. Short of wiping the Palestinian people from Gaza completely in an act of ethnic cleansing…..you don’t ‘win’ against gorilla warfare…..you have brief pyrrhic victories….until the next wave of nationalistic terrorism, that you seeded with your last supposed victory, reconstitutes itself. Israel has a right to safety but it is not without limits.

 

Hamas in Gaza poses in the short term now almost zero threat to Israeli lives & sovereignty now that Israel’s vast military & intelligence apparatus is focused on the threat. Let’s be clear here….toe to toe….Hamas poses limited threat to the survival of Israel….in fact continue on with this level of proportionality and you risk pulling in unseemly neighbors to the fight such that the question of Israel’s survival as state re-appears when truly resourced state level actors step into the fray. 
 

Israel IMO, over the long pull, is making itself less safe not more safe via its current strategy. That is my view as someone deeply interested in the survival of Israel over time. 
 

Like I said you don’t beat monsters by becoming a monster. Retribution against an asymmetric threat relative to your strength is a sugar high with a terrible hangover…..the US escapades after 9/11 taught us that. This is not the might of Nazi Germany vs. the Allies…..it’s monsters who had to fly in on god damn powered powergliders for gods sake…. the lufftwaffe this is not. If winning justifies all ends….Israel could win the ‘war’ tonight. 

 

And finally it’s not clear to me how these actions with their lack of proportionality are making the state of Israel more safe over time….you destroy an apartment building with one Hamas terriosit and kill 100 civilians…whatever your personal moral view is around who killed those civilians (I’m sympathetic to the view that Hamas really killed those 100 people not Israel)….but what I can assure you is that 1000 people of that family tree that remain….10% of them will blame Israel….well congratulation's you just created 100 Hamas fighters for the next Intifada in 10-15yrs time. This is not how you optimize for the long run safety of the Jewish state for which I am an ardent supporter. I’ve many friends in Israel and this is not a minority view within the State of Israel itself….put simply that the Netanyahu coalition is not acting in the long term interest of Israel.

[ValueArb]

Quote

To be clear, my opinion is simple, Putin has committed war crimes & so has Netanyahu in the scale and scope of his retaliatory response….he had a right to strike back….but he has failed the proportionality test. 

 

Reminds me of when Israel had perfect intel on a meeting of the top leaders of Hamas in a house a few years ago. They debated over and over how large a bomb to use, but there were a handful of kids playing on the street in front of the house so they ended up choosing a small bomb. It just rattled the Hamas staff, and now how many kids are dead?

[changegonnacome]

9 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

What if you were both wrong and right at the same time. Can you hold two different points of views at the same time ?

I do indeed hold some of @cubsfan views in my head….I can see both sides….

 

11 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I think we best leave the discussion on current ME conflict outside this forum. It is very polarizing, and doesn’t bring the best in people. (Not in me anyways). 

Your right - it seems anything, more or less, can be discussed….but this is one issue where all nuance, minutia and complexity gets lost.

 

Ill take your wise advice @Xerxes

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Proportionality is a well accepted principle in matters of self-defense…it’s why it’s not acceptable to kill a man for bumping into you on the street even when he meant to do it….on this idea I can assure you we are on firm footing.

History has taught us that it’s near impossible to teach peace to the conquered. Short of wiping the Palestinian people from Gaza completely in an act of ethnic cleansing…..you don’t ‘win’ against gorilla warfare…..you have brief pyrrhic victories….until the next wave of nationalistic terrorism, that you seeded with your last supposed victory, reconstitutes itself. Israel has a right to safety but it is not without limits.

 

Hamas in Gaza poses in the short term now almost zero threat to Israeli lives & sovereignty now that Israel’s vast military & intelligence apparatus is focused on the threat. Let’s be clear here….toe to toe….Hamas poses limited threat to the survival of Israel….in fact continue on with this level of proportionality and you risk pulling in unseemly neighbors to the fight such that the question of Israel’s survival as state re-appears when truly resourced state level actors step into the fray. 
 

Israel IMO, over the long pull, is making itself less safe not more safe via its current strategy. That is my view as someone deeply interested in the survival of Israel over time. 
 

Like I said you don’t beat monsters by becoming a monster. Retribution against an asymmetric threat relative to your strength is a sugar high with a terrible hangover…..the US escapades after 9/11 taught us that. This is not the might of Nazi Germany vs. the Allies…..it’s monsters who had to fly in on god damn powered powergliders for gods sake…. the lufftwaffe this is not. If winning justifies all ends….Israel could win the ‘war’ tonight. 

 

And finally it’s not clear to me how these actions with their lack of proportionality are making the state of Israel more safe over time….you destroy an apartment building with one Hamas terriosit and kill 100 civilians…whatever your personal moral view is around who killed those civilians (I’m sympathetic to the view that Hamas really killed those 100 people not Israel)….but what I can assure you is that 1000 people of that family tree that remain….10% of them will blame Israel….well congratulation's you just created 100 Hamas fighters for the next Intifada in 10-15yrs time. This is not how you optimize for the long run safety of the Jewish state for which I am an ardent supporter. I’ve many friends in Israel and this is not a minority view within the State of Israel itself….put simply that the Netanyahu coalition is not acting in the long term interest of Israel.

Yeah, I totally disagree.

 

War is war. It is not a “test” or limited to proportionality. War is a last final step when diplomacy fails. War is a test of who is the strongest. We all know it’s Israel- even the Palestinians know it. That makes them fools for testing the resolve of Israel. It’s like the bully that bothers you countless times in school , until you decide to flatten him for good.

 

The bully had it coming, and was a fool for testing you, not understanding that you would be capable of an act of violence to set you straight.

 

”Proportionally” is an idiotic concept in war - because war settles the issue of who is strongest once and for all. The determination to use that strength was SERIOUSLY misjudged by the fools in Hamas - and unfortunately their people are paying the price.

 

Now it will be the decision of the Palestinian people as to whether they allow Hamas to run their affairs after it’s over.  If they do - they are indeed fools.

 

Proportionality has no place in this discussion of the final option of war.

 

Its now a simple decision: give up hostages, give up Hamas - and you will get peace.

 

Your choice: unconditional surrender.

[cubsfan]

23 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Reminds me of when Israel had perfect intel on a meeting of the top leaders of Hamas in a house a few years ago. They debated over and over how large a bomb to use, but there were a handful of kids playing on the street in front of the house so they ended up choosing a small bomb. It just rattled the Hamas staff, and now how many kids are dead?

And it should be very clear of the objective here: eliminate Hamas and deter Hezbollah.

 

The USA dropped a bomb on Japan. A horrible act of violence. The war in the Pacific is over. What happened to that guerrilla war in Japan?? Nothing..

 

What about the uprising in Germany? Never happened.

 

The facist military dictatorship were replaced once and for all - with 70 years of peace.

 

Palestinians get to make their own choice. Peace or more war???

 

Up to them.

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

 

It should also be noted that for all the Putin war criminal & genocidal maniac talk (which is true)…..Israel in a few short weeks has killed more civilians in Gaza than Putin has in Ukraine in a year and half of war. The difference - Netanyahu is our genocidal maniac…..and the ends justify the means…..when those in ‘other’ countries that aren’t our friends accuse us of self-righteous hypocrisy this is what they mean. 
 

To be clear, my opinion is simple, Putin has committed war crimes & so has Netanyahu in the scale and scope of his retaliatory response….he had a right to strike back….but he has failed the proportionality test. You don’t fight monsters by becoming one yourself….cause then in a way they’ve won and you’ve lost.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I don't get this!  Hamas sent in terrorists to kill, maim and kidnap Israeli citizens.  No war, no provocation...nothing!  Then Israel systematically works their way into Gaza to eliminate Hamas and create a safe zone outside of their border in Gaza.  As they did this, they warned and opened roads to allow evacuation of areas they were going to slowly plow through and root out Hamas.  

 

I have no idea what the protestors screaming at Israel and allied politicians calling for a cease fire want!  Why aren't they protesting to the UN, politicians in Iran, North Korea and Russia for funding and supporting Hamas...a group using human beings as shields, including women and children.  How about asking Hamas to release the hostages...whether they get a cease fire or not?  Hamas wouldn't go for that!  These guys are effing scum!

 

I didn't hear anything about war crimes when Bush and Obama killed over 100K Iraqi citizens as they fought Bin Laden, Al Qaida and ISIS.  First, they never should have gone into Iraq...but there was little outcry when they did because U.S. citizens wanted Bin Laden and Al Qaida.  

 

Just like 9/11, Israel is not fighting a nation state but terrorist groups using citizens in other countries as human shields...they aren't fighting fair, nor are they inclined to honor anything in the Geneva Convention.  There is no way around that. 

 

Diplomacy will only provide a short-term solution.  You need to cut off the heads of the terrorist group and any funding it is getting.  And yes, because of Hamas, there will be war, casualties, displacement, starvation, terror, hopelessness, etc.  That's what happens when you provoke a bear...it bites!  Cheers!

[Dinar]

@changegonnacome, every opinion poll shows that 75% of people in the West Bank approve of Hamas's atrocities on October 7th and Hamas' call to wipe out Israel from the earth.   So actually, it is your Arab friends who are genocidal maniacs!  

 

Innocent civilians in Gaza?  They elected Hamas knowing that Hamas wanted to kill every Israeli, so how innocent are they?  

 

Is killing someone who wants to kill your family genocidal? To me that's self defense. 

 

As for calling Netayahu a genocidal maniac, you sure as hell have an interesting definition of genocide.  Genocide is wiping out a population, not a situation where population is growing at 3%+ per year.  However don't let facts get in the way of your lies.  

 

[Parsad]

46 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

What if you were both wrong and right at the same time. Can you hold two different points of views at the same time ?
 

I think we best leave the discussion on current ME conflict outside this forum. It is very polarizing, and doesn’t bring the best in people. (Not in me anyways). 
 

 

 

One was an unprovoked attack on civilian women and children by a terrorist organization...the other is an attempt to root out that terrorist organization so it can't do it again.  Are there really two views on this?

 

Israel should arm Palestinians who want Hamas out...train them and fight.  That is the only way to end this thing once and for all.  The other is to acknowledge Hamas as a non-terrorist organization and use diplomacy...do we really want to do that?  Turn them into another Sinn Fein?  Yes, you have peace but legitimize terrorists! 

 

I agree that there is no simple solution.  But believe it or not, I'm not of two views on this!  Israel has a right to defend itself and rid the world of Hamas.  Cheers!