Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

14 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

 

This.
Frankly, I find the guy in the video that Spek posted distasteful. From the thumbnail to selling his war merch in the middle of the video.

It a fair statement. it is also true that every one of the youtubers following the war has something to sell or hunting for eyeballs. That being said, i found his commentary in this particular case useful.  These guys do have their ears on the ground and follow the telegram channels (both Russian and Ukraine) so you get the info there sooner and with more detail than with MSM.

 

I think there is a good chance that we are going to see some action on the frontline around Robotyne and perhaps the Russian frontline is about to crack there.

[Spekulatius]

If you don't like above, here is another one from Michael Clark (which i follow closely). it is clear that something is up , because the Russian are throwing their elite forces on the frontline near Robotyne (76 Paratrooper)

 

[backtothebeach]

Michael Clark is definitely more pleasant to listen to.

 

Look up Robotyne, a village of 5 streets, on Google maps. Kind of puts into perspective what they are talking about. How many men died on both sides over this tiny patch? Depressing.

(Hint: From the middle of the image, look west-south-west, there is a small red outline).

Edited August 28, 2023 by backtothebeach

[cubsfan]

This really is looking like Verdun. High casualties on both sides for small progress. Found it easy to be all juiced up this past winter with the coming “spring offensive” that was going to be the turning point.

 

Now reality setting in for the Ukrainians.  Russia can keep throwing manpower at this, which Ukraine really can’t match.

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Russia can keep throwing manpower at this, which Ukraine really can’t match.

 

This is the math problem at the heart of the conflict.

 

Ukraine runs out of men aged 16-65 before Russia does.

 

Ukraine runs out of artillery, supplies & various weaponry before Russia does.

 

& finally 'the West' runs out of perseverance & staying power before Russia does.

 

If there was some kind of imperfect deal to be had in May 2022.......and Boris Johnson et al told Zelensky 'no dice' in a Churchill fever dream......then its really a terribly sad situation for every life lost on both sides since then.

[no_free_lunch]

There were multiple deals over the past decade. Putin doesn't honor them.  I think it's similar to the nazis and so many others, Putin will just keep attacking if he feels he can win.

 

So with these negotiations, Ukraine gives up its sovereignty and once that's gone they aren't ever getting it back.  Putin learns the utility of force.  China learns the west can be intimidated.  Creates issues..

 

What history have you guts read that makes you believe Putin is just going to be content with some treaty?

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

This is the math problem at the heart of the conflict.

 

Ukraine runs out of men aged 16-65 before Russia does.

 

Ukraine runs out of artillery, supplies & various weaponry before Russia does.

 

& finally 'the West' runs out of perseverance & staying power before Russia does.

 

If there was some kind of imperfect deal to be had in May 2022.......and Boris Johnson et al told Zelensky 'no dice' in a Churchill fever dream......then its really a terribly sad situation for every life lost on both sides since then.

Incorrect.

Who runs out first depends in the attrition ratio.

Russia also is running out of material. For example they don’t seem to be able to field that many tanks any more. Their offensive power is gone.

 

They have plenty of artillery, but it’s not precision guided, so every time they shoot, they open themselves up to precise Ukrainian counterbattery fire. In my opinion, Russia will run out of men and material before Ukraine does. End result are a very bad attrition ratio for the artillery for the Russian side.

 

.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

This is the math problem at the heart of the conflict.

 

Ukraine runs out of men aged 16-65 before Russia does.

 

Ukraine runs out of artillery, supplies & various weaponry before Russia does.

 

& finally 'the West' runs out of perseverance & staying power before Russia does.

 

If there was some kind of imperfect deal to be had in May 2022.......and Boris Johnson et al told Zelensky 'no dice' in a Churchill fever dream......then its really a terribly sad situation for every life lost on both sides since then.

I agree they will run out of men. Gotta be awful now with 10 million that have left country. I doubt they run out of weapons with the West behind them - I guess we’ll see. 
 

Yeah, and I agree, they should have made their deal a few months ago. The vaunted Spring Offensive didn’t go as planned.

 

A war of attrition means Putin gets to keep his gains which is currently a wasteland.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

There were multiple deals over the past decade. Putin doesn't honor them.  I think it's similar to the nazis and so many others, Putin will just keep attacking if he feels he can win.

 

So with these negotiations, Ukraine gives up its sovereignty and once that's gone they aren't ever getting it back.  Putin learns the utility of force.  China learns the west can be intimidated.  Creates issues..

 

What history have you guts read that makes you believe Putin is just going to be content with some treaty?

 

 

 

I don’t disagree at all. I’m saying we’re headed to a DMZ, much like N & S Korea. A heavily fortified border that is manned forever.

[mcliu]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

There were multiple deals over the past decade. Putin doesn't honor them.  I think it's similar to the nazis and so many others, Putin will just keep attacking if he feels he can win.

 

So with these negotiations, Ukraine gives up its sovereignty and once that's gone they aren't ever getting it back.  Putin learns the utility of force.  China learns the west can be intimidated.  Creates issues..

 

What history have you guts read that makes you believe Putin is just going to be content with some treaty?

 

 

 

Isn’t Georgia still a sovereign country? Why didn’t Putin take over Georgia? France brokered a peace deal, only 300 killed on both sides. Why can’t we do this with Ukraine?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

[Xerxes]

Is that called Keynesian economics ! Akin to how WW2 slowly pulled participating nations from the doldrums of the Great Depression 

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

@changegonnacome has a point on manpower. Russia has 144M citizens, Ukraine had 43M, but 10M or so have left and I’m unsure of the population in the occupied territories. 
 

I doubt the West wants to supply troops, but is willing to keep military aid going. The AirPower in the West dwarfs the Russians. Between US & Northern European air power, it’s not much of a contest. It comes down to the will to use it.

[aws]

You can't just look at population size of each country and assume that will determine the outcome. That would require assuming that the average Russian cares as much about subjugating their neighbor as the average Ukrainian cares about defending their homeland. Ukraine has shown a willingness to sacrifice more, while Russia has sheltered the rich areas of the country from the realities of war and relied on contract soldiers from the poor regions that will fight for money, or convicts that will fight to get out of prison. 

 

The summer counter offensive has gone slower than most hoped, but this time last year morale was also quite low, and then in quick succession Ukraine reclaimed most of the area around Kharkiv and retook Kherson. 

 

[cubsfan]

23 minutes ago, aws said:

You can't just look at population size of each country and assume that will determine the outcome. That would require assuming that the average Russian cares as much about subjugating their neighbor as the average Ukrainian cares about defending their homeland. Ukraine has shown a willingness to sacrifice more, while Russia has sheltered the rich areas of the country from the realities of war and relied on contract soldiers from the poor regions that will fight for money, or convicts that will fight to get out of prison. 

 

The summer counter offensive has gone slower than most hoped, but this time last year morale was also quite low, and then in quick succession Ukraine reclaimed most of the area around Kharkiv and retook Kherson. 

 

Understand. Russia is not exactly a joke anymore and they are a well entrenched defender. The west has the advantage for weapons, but unlikely the will to send troops.

I fail to see how Ukraine can sustain large manpower losses with an offensive.

 

It looks like a stalemate, war of attrition. 

[UK]

Hey, this supposed to be funny:). Anyone?

 

Question: what was the largest city taken over by Russia in it's war in Ukraine so far?

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, UK said:

Hey, this supposed to be funny:). Anyone?

 

Question: what was the largest city taken over by Russia in it's war in Ukraine so far?

Mariupol is the largest city taken by the Russians.

[UK]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

Mariupol is the largest city taken by the Russians.

 

Rostov!:)

[changegonnacome]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Incorrect.

Who runs out first depends in the attrition ratio.

 

My comment about Ukraine running out of men before Russia was a combination of population AND casualty exchange ratio combined.

 

Ukraine running out of men before Russia is just patently clear just based on the strategic aims of the two sides.

 

Attrition ratio imbalance is patently clear based on the strategic posture/aims of the sides - dont forget Ukraine is trying to TAKE land, Russia is DEFENDING land.....the short hand military math for the casualty exchange ratio based on this posture alone is at best 2 to 1......more likely 3 to 1 in Russia's favors. It is the Ukranian men who are the end of the day going "over the top" and getting mowed down by entrenched Russian forces.

 

Then on top of this you just layer on the clear male 16 - 65 population size advantage Russia has over Ukraine......sure lots of bodies being put through the meat grinder on both sides......but a proportionally higher percentage of Ukrainian males aged 16-65  are getting put through it everyday.

[John Hjorth]

10 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Understand. Russia is not exactly a joke anymore and they are a well entrenched defender. The west has the advantage for weapons, but unlikely the will to send troops.

I fail to see how Ukraine can sustain large manpower losses with an offensive.

 

It looks like a stalemate, war of attrition. 

 

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

My comment about Ukraine running out of men before Russia was a combination of population AND casualty exchange ratio combined.

 

Ukraine running out of men before Russia is just patently clear just based on the strategic aims of the two sides.

 

Attrition ratio imbalance is patently clear based on the strategic posture/aims of the sides - dont forget Ukraine is trying to TAKE land, Russia is DEFENDING land.....the short hand military math for the casualty exchange ratio based on this posture alone is at best 2 to 1......more likely 3 to 1 in Russia's favors. It is the Ukranian men who are the end of the day going "over the top" and getting mowed down by entrenched Russian forces.

 

Then on top of this you just layer on the clear male 16 - 65 population size advantage Russia has over Ukraine......sure lots of bodies being put through the meat grinder on both sides......but a proportionally higher percentage of Ukrainian males aged 16-65  are getting put through it everyday.

 

This is exactly why those with real skin in the game here - the NATO allies in Europe - really can't afford not to ramp up support for the war effort.

 

If you already have said 'A', you simply must say 'B' here [to continue] [, or saying 'A' would be in vain, [and somebody [the people of your country] would take you on and calling your *BS* in the first place].

 

- - - o  0 o - - -

 

In that respect, we are already beyond the point of no return in this situation.

 

Lingering does not work on, nor solve, anything.

 

To do what has to be done, to end this thing, is what matters. Everybody knows it, but really nobody [, or few ] approaches this issue from that angle, by now.

 

There is only the alternative : To ramp further up, to make an end of this.

Edited August 29, 2023 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg [August 29^th 2023] : Putin Agrees to Visit China in First Trip Since Arrest Warrant.

 

How difficult is this? - The culprit at the center of all this has already himself lost his greatest privilege : His freedom. In that respect and lens, the whole mess by now appears absolutely meaningless.

[Pelagic]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Incorrect.

Who runs out first depends in the attrition ratio.

Russia also is running out of material. For example they don’t seem to be able to field that many tanks any more. Their offensive power is gone.

 

They have plenty of artillery, but it’s not precision guided, so every time they shoot, they open themselves up to precise Ukrainian counterbattery fire. In my opinion, Russia will run out of men and material before Ukraine does. End result are a very bad attrition ratio for the artillery for the Russian side.

 

.

 

Exactly. Furthermore, Ukraine has been using GMLRS to hunt Russian individual pieces of artillery for the last few months quite successfully. GMLRS and other smart artillery munitions provided by the west combined with reconnaissance drones have proven very effective against Russia's artillery (as have Ukrainian FPV drones). The idea that Russia maintains some massive advantage in terms of artillery capabilities has been wrong for at least 6 months, probably longer if you look at the logistical challenges Russia faced once western GMLRS started targeting their supply depots. 

 

Ukraine is also using precision strikes to target Russian air defense systems, I saw a stat where since May, Russia has lost more air defense systems than throughout the rest of the war combined. I suspect this is being done to allow close air support to strike with extended range JDAMs that they've received, which will pack more of a punch on fortified Russian positions than any of the artillery Ukraine has available.

 

 

[cubsfan]

34 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Bloomberg [August 29^th 2023] : Putin Agrees to Visit China in First Trip Since Arrest Warrant.

 

How difficult is this? - The culprit at the center of all this has already himself lost his greatest privilege : His freedom. In that respect and lens, the whole mess by now appears absolutely meaningless.

 

Wouldn't it be wonderful if someone shot down his plane for once.

[John Hjorth]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Wouldn't it be wonderful if someone shot down his plane for once.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan],

 

He does not - for exactly that reason - move around much by plane, but by train.

 

His layers of paranoia are multidimensional, thereby also making them aggregated : There is absolutely no way back to sleeping well at night , because of what he he has already done. Great to read on the Net, that even your own mother recents you.

[ValueArb]

5 hours ago, Pelagic said:

 

Exactly. Furthermore, Ukraine has been using GMLRS to hunt Russian individual pieces of artillery for the last few months quite successfully. GMLRS and other smart artillery munitions provided by the west combined with reconnaissance drones have proven very effective against Russia's artillery (as have Ukrainian FPV drones). The idea that Russia maintains some massive advantage in terms of artillery capabilities has been wrong for at least 6 months, probably longer if you look at the logistical challenges Russia faced once western GMLRS started targeting their supply depots. 

 

Ukraine is also using precision strikes to target Russian air defense systems, I saw a stat where since May, Russia has lost more air defense systems than throughout the rest of the war combined. I suspect this is being done to allow close air support to strike with extended range JDAMs that they've received, which will pack more of a punch on fortified Russian positions than any of the artillery Ukraine has available.

 

 

 

This. Attrition of Russian artillery has been at incredible rates, while Ukraine is still getting its artillery replaced by the West Russia is running low on stocks to draw from. They can probably get more from North Korea but the quality is terrible, even worse than standard Russian.

 

Ukraine forces are getting very close to being able to interdict all Russian transport in the Crimean land bridge with HIMARs, and other long range weapons. It will be interesting to see what happens to Russian forces south of Tokmak when their ammunition resupply situation turns from spotty to non-existent.

[ValueArb]

22 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

This is the math problem at the heart of the conflict.

 

Ukraine runs out of men aged 16-65 before Russia does.

 

Ukraine runs out of artillery, supplies & various weaponry before Russia does.

 

& finally 'the West' runs out of perseverance & staying power before Russia does.

 

If there was some kind of imperfect deal to be had in May 2022.......and Boris Johnson et al told Zelensky 'no dice' in a Churchill fever dream......then its really a terribly sad situation for every life lost on both sides since then.

 

Zelenskyy has never been willing to accept a peace deal that involves giving up the Donbas or Crimea. 

 

"President Zelenskyy denounced suggestions by former US diplomat Henry Kissinger that Ukraine should cede control of Crimea and Donbas to Russia in exchange for peace.^[66] On 25 May, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not agree to peace until Russia agreed to return Crimea and the Donbas region to Ukraine."

 

And it's not a "sad situation". Peace on those terms would just be temporary. Russia would just use it to re-arm and prepare for another invasion. Putin has broken every single commitment Russia has made to the Ukraine, it's peddled false narratives and run fake elections. Ukraine understands this, they don't want to deal with another 4 years of being shelled from even closer, more Russian electoral interference and bribery corrupting their politicians, until Russia just attacks again. 

 

The only way the war ends is if Russia withdraws. If Ukraine stops fighting it ceases to exist. And as far as Ukraine running out of men, in 1914 France had a population smaller than Ukraine did and took over 800,000 casualties in the first 60 days without ever considering quitting. They ended up enduring over 6M casualties and 1.4M dead over five years of war. Its likely that Ukraine has suffered fewer casualties in a year and half of war than the French did in a couple weeks at either the battle of the Frontiers or the Miracle of the Marne.