Russia-Ukrainian War - Political

[LC]

 

Trump just wants the war to end so people stop dying....right? right....?

[Mephistopheles]

If only Zelensky put on a suit and a Trump tie for the Oval Office meeting, none of this would have transpired 

[formthirteen]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

That this is the reality, is gradually dawning here in Europe. And you see it in the major shift in Western European sentiment going on in these days.

European ignorance and weakness invited Putin and Russia to their backdoor. If you have a Russian bear in your backyard, you don't keep the door wide open. Good riddance to all that.

 

Follow the money:

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/05/has-europe-spent-more-on-russian-oil-and-gas-than-aid-to-ukraine-as-trump-claims

Edited Thursday at 08:10 AM by formthirteen

[Sweet]

20 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

European ignorance and weakness invited Putin and Russia to their backdoor. If you have a Russian bear in your backyard, you don't keep the door wide open. Good riddance to all that.

 

Follow the money:

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/05/has-europe-spent-more-on-russian-oil-and-gas-than-aid-to-ukraine-as-trump-claims

All of this is true.  Trump went to Germany years ago and basically said we are spending lots on nato spending, you aren’t, and you are buying all this oil and gas from Russia.

 

of course there the amount bought is not the same as profit for Russia.  Still it shouldn’t be happening, and plans are being made to move away from that.

 

Canada had an open goal to provide this and Trudeau said no I understand.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

All of this is true.  Trump went to Germany years ago and basically said we are spending lots on nato spending, you aren’t, and you are buying all this oil and gas from Russia.

 

of course there the amount bought is not the same as profit for Russia.  Still it shouldn’t be happening, and plans are being made to move away from that.

 

Canada had an open goal to provide this and Trudeau said no I understand.

At least Europe moving in the right direction, the direction that the US is taking under Trump is downward scary.

 

I think for equity markets it means that the US valuation premium will diminish. The US markets still has the best business but that only explains part of the valuation difference. There is a clear premium for US stocks right now compared to likewise foreign stocks (as is evident when business relist in the US) and this premium will be smaller going forward, imo.

[cubsfan]

10 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

I personally don't believe your POTUS will even succeed establishing a lasting ceasefire, truce.

 

I certainly understand this thinking. You have a stalemate, so you try for peace, before further escalation into a wider war.

[nsx5200]

Don't know if it's my right-brain speaking, but watching the Zelensky & Trump exchange in full, and reading about the the news commentaries about the State of Union, the thing that keeps going off in my head is that he's try really hard angling for a Nobel Peace prize with wanting to be known as the "peace president".  Trump really blew up when Zelensky kept bringing up long-lasting security guarantee, which is really hard to achieve.  Again with that language in the SOTU.  Seems a little bit petty, but it's consistent with Trump's character.  All the other stuff about mineral, lives lost and long-lasting security for Ukraine, are, IMHO, just noise or at last side-shows to Trump.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Like Trump said in the SOTU - nothing he says or does will ever be enough for the Trump haters.

Even if he brings peace to Europe or helps a 13 year with cancer enjoy his life.

There will always be a reason for Trump haters to continue. Look at what fools the Democrats made of themselves in the SOTU.

[Sweet]

49 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Like Trump said in the SOTU - nothing he says or does will ever be enough for the Trump haters.

Even if he brings peace to Europe or helps a 13 year with cancer enjoy his life.

There will always be a reason for Trump haters to continue. Look at what fools the Democrats made of themselves in the SOTU.

There are Trump haters and people who aren’t Trump haters though.  
 

Douglas Murray attended Trump’s inauguration, he has a critical piece about Trump’s stance on Ukraine in the Spectator today.

[Sweet]

Today, talking about European countries putting troops the police the peace:

 

“Such things, if you call them a peacekeeping force, they must be discussed and agreed to by [all] sides. This is something which neither Macron or Starmer or other advocates of deploying troops to Ukraine have not even mentioned," Lavrov says. 

He adds: "We will see the presence of such troops on Ukrainian territory the same way as we saw a potential Nato presence in Ukraine... this would mean not supposedly hybrid, but direct, official and unconcealed involvement by Nato countries in a war against the Russian Federation.”

 

Yes… European troops to ensure the peace would be a direct war against Russia.

 

Edited Thursday at 04:48 PM by Sweet

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

I certainly understand this thinking. You have a stalemate, so you try for peace, before further escalation into a wider war.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Let's see how things evolve from here. At least the parties that ended in a severe quarrel in public last week seem by now not to have slammed any doors definitely. That's what matters most right now.

 

Every possible option needs to by given its chance for carrying through.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I have several times written in this topic, that our views on the situation have to be forward looking to be constructive and logic.

 

In that regard, I have yet to give you, that Europe has been at sleep for too long here, while the alarm clock now has rung.

[cubsfan]

26 minutes ago, Sweet said:

There are Trump haters and people who aren’t Trump haters though.  
 

Douglas Murray attended Trump’s inauguration, he has a critical piece about Trump’s stance on Ukraine in the Spectator today.

 

I'm a fan of Douglas Murry, so I'll be interested to see his POV.

 

Murray is a large critic of European leadership and the circular firing squad it has become with the destruction of their culture through immigration policy and blatant anti-semitism.  I know he's been quite critical of Starmer and his do nothing approach.

 

Good to see Murray spreads around his criticism.

[John Hjorth]

15 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Today, talking about European countries putting troops the police the peace:

 

“Such things, if you call them a peacekeeping force, they must be discussed and agreed to by [all] sides. This is something which neither Macron or Starmer or other advocates of deploying troops to Ukraine have not even mentioned," Lavrov says.

 

He adds: "We will see the presence of such troops on Ukrainian territory the same way as we saw a potential Nato presence in Ukraine... this would mean not supposedly hybrid, but direct, official and unconcealed involvement by Nato countries in a war against the Russian Federation.”

 

Yes… Europe troops to ensure the peace would be a direct war against Russia.

 

There you got it, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

How does anyone solve that?

 

I really can't see any other hands-on solution to that than placing a bullet in the forehead of Sergej Lavrov, after doing that asking : 'Who is next in line?', or he can just try, and let him see what he gets. He will get hit by a bus and get steamrolled.

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

There you got it, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

How does anyone solve that?

 

I really can't see any other hands-on solution to that than placing a bullet in the forehead of Sergej Lavrov, after doing that asking : 'Who is next in line?', or he can just try, and let him see what he gets. He will get hit by a bus and get steamrolled.

 

When the time comes to negotiate with the Russians - there will be a go/no decision obviously.

Like Zelensky, the Russians will not get everything they want. 

 

IF they do not want peace, then it will be war, but without the USA.

 

I really don't think you want to throw in the towel as long as Trump has a dialogue going with Putin.

Or do you?

 

 

[John Hjorth]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

When the time comes to negotiate with the Russians - there will be a go/no decision obviously.

 

Like Zelensky, the Russians will not get everything they want. 

 

IF they do not want peace, then it will be war, but without the USA.

 

I really don't think you want to throw in the towel as long as Trump has a dialogue going with Putin.

 

Or do you?

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Naturally not.

 

The problem here is the appoach that POTUS has chosen here, combined with no public information available about discussions between USA and Russia in Saudi Arabia.

 

Your POTUS  - by logic - must think, that both Ukraine and Europe will accept this approach as valid for negotiations.

 

Mind you, we aren't some early stage neandertals, or even earlier stages of homo sapiens.

 

Is that difficult to understand, and if so, how difficult is that to understand? 

[cubsfan]

Not sure I understand your question John, but that's ok. (BTW - I think your English is perfect)

 

IF I do understand, then the answer is this: Trump has advised Europe that Putin seeks peace.

He has re-iterated that point many times. Now if you don't trust Trump - and as a group (Europe/Ukraine) - refuse to talk to Putin - then where does that leave you??

 

You either have to trust Trump or take over negotiations.

 

Which do you prefer??

 

I think you are saying that Europe will not stand for Trump conducting negotiations??

[John Hjorth]

5 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Not sure I understand your question John, but that's ok. (BTW - I think your English is perfect)

 

IF I do understand, then the answer is this: Trump has advised Europe that Putin seeks peace.

He has re-iterated that point many times. Now if you don't trust Trump - and as a group (Europe/Ukraine) - refuse to talk to Putin - then where does that leave you??

 

You either have to trust Trump or take over negotiations.

 

Which do you prefer??

 

I think you are saying that Europe will not stand for Trump conducting negotiations??

 

This is actually an awesome reply from you, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Now I need time to really think about who to be - if not the right - then the best possible mediator in all this mess.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Thank you for being a great discussion partner here, Mike [ @cubsfan ].

 

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

This is actually an awesome reply from you, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Now I need time to really think about who to be - if not the right - then the best possible mediator in all this mess.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Thank you for being a great discussion partner here, Mike [ @cubsfan ].

 

 

Thank you John. We all want the right outcome, although we differ on methods.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

IF they do not want peace, then it will be war, but without the USA.

So this is different that what you have said before.  Pretty sure.

 

I’m not going to try and find the posts earlier in this thread - can’t be bothered - but I’m pretty sure you were talking about ‘ambiguous’ security guarantees with the mineral, and if peace fails because of Russia the US would be helping Ukraine again.

 

Now you are basically confirming what I and others have been saying all along.

 

If this IS the position of the US, there is even less incentive for Russia to have a peace deal than with Biden as President.   So much for trying peace and all that talk then.  You might ask well just wash your hands and be done with it rather than moralising about peace deals.

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

35 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Not sure I understand your question John, but that's ok. (BTW - I think your English is perfect)

 

IF I do understand, then the answer is this: Trump has advised Europe that Putin seeks peace.

He has re-iterated that point many times. Now if you don't trust Trump - and as a group (Europe/Ukraine) - refuse to talk to Putin - then where does that leave you??

 

You either have to trust Trump or take over negotiations.

 

Which do you prefer??

 

I think you are saying that Europe will not stand for Trump conducting negotiations??

Why would Europe trust Trump? He has attacked Mexico, Canada, and threatened to invade Denmark. Why would anyone trust him? 

Why would Europe Trust Putin" He has breaks agreement after agreement and has attacked his neighbours 25 times since taking charge. 

Nobody should or will trust either. 

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

14 minutes ago, Sweet said:

So this is different that what you have said before.  Pretty sure.

 

I’m not going to try and find the posts earlier in this thread - can’t be bothered - but I’m pretty sure you were talking about ‘ambiguous’ security guarantees with the mineral, and if peace fails because of Russia the US would be helping Ukraine again.

 

Now you are basically confirming what I and others have been saying all along.

 

If this IS the position of the US, there is even less incentive for Russia to have a peace deal than with Biden as President.   So much for trying peace and all that talk then.  You might ask well just wash your hands and be done with it rather than moralising about peace deals.

Biden was a man of principle and stuck to his word. You can't hold Trump or those around him to the same standards. Neither he nor Putin are to be trusted. 

[cubsfan]

23 minutes ago, Sweet said:

So this is different that what you have said before.  Pretty sure.

 

I’m not going to try and find the posts earlier in this thread - can’t be bothered - but I’m pretty sure you were talking about ‘ambiguous’ security guarantees with the mineral, and if peace fails because of Russia the US would be helping Ukraine again.

 

Now you are basically confirming what I and others have been saying all along.

 

Incorrect. The "ambiguous" security guarantee would be spelled out to Putin once talks

are serious. (after both parties AGREE they want peace pursued - otherwise USA is done)

 

Zelensky says he is committed to peace, Putin agrees says he's committed to peace.

A Russia/Ukraine agreement is signed - with a joint Euro/USA backing.

 

US establishes their mineral deal using US resources - if peace agreement is violated by Russia, there is hell to pay by Russia with US involvement.  Does that mean troops on ground?  No idea.

Does it mean military strikes? Probably - but Trump won't telegraph exactly what - nor should he.

 

 

Frankly, I have no idea where this deal is at currently. I would expect lots of back & forth

and changing conditions, given last Friday - but it does look a lot closer.

[cubsfan]

20 minutes ago, Fundmanagerthrwawy said:

Why would Europe trust Trump? He has attacked Mexico, Canada, and threatened to invade Denmark. Why would anyone trust him? 

Why would Europe Trust Putin" He has breaks agreement after agreement and has attacked his neighbours 25 times since taking charge. 

Nobody should or will trust either. 

 

You definitely should not - in which case, you are on your own.

 

War it will be!

 

It may have been Biden's war - but now it is Ukraine & Europe's war.

We want it settled. You don't.

 

Trump is just the messenger for the American people - so let them have it ! @Fundmanagerthrwawy

[Sweet]

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Incorrect. The "ambiguous" security guarantee would be spelled out to Putin once talks

are serious. (after both parties AGREE they want peace pursued - otherwise USA is done)

 

Zelensky says he is committed to peace, Putin agrees says he's committed to peace.

A Russia/Ukraine agreement is signed - with a joint Euro/USA backing.

 

US establishes their mineral deal using US resources - if peace agreement is violated by Russia, there is hell to pay by Russia with US involvement.  Does that mean troops on ground?  No idea.

Does it mean military strikes? Probably - but Trump won't telegraph exactly what - nor should he.

 

 

Frankly, I have no idea where this deal is at currently. I would expect lots of back & forth

and changing conditions, given last Friday - but it does look a lot closer.

Why would Russia sign up to that lol.

 

So if Russia / Ukraine accept peace, there will be a mineral deal and US involvement in Ukraine with possible security guarantees.  ‘Hell to pay for Russia if it breaks it’ - so now risking WW3 and funding for a war against Russia is OK?  Which is it?

 

If Russia rejects a deal, the US walks away, and there is no US involvement in the region.  Exactly what Russia wants lol. 

 

If this is the plan it’s horrendously bad.  I have to assume that this isn’t what Trump has planned.

 

Edited Thursday at 07:02 PM by Sweet

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

Don't know if it's my right-brain speaking, but watching the Zelensky & Trump exchange in full, and reading about the the news commentaries about the State of Union, the thing that keeps going off in my head is that he's try really hard angling for a Nobel Peace prize with wanting to be known as the "peace president".  Trump really blew up when Zelensky kept bringing up long-lasting security guarantee, which is really hard to achieve.  Again with that language in the SOTU.  Seems a little bit petty, but it's consistent with Trump's character.  All the other stuff about mineral, lives lost and long-lasting security for Ukraine, are, IMHO, just noise or at last side-shows to Trump.

Yeap his goals are to get a spot on Mt Rushmore ( for expanding America by annexing Greenland) and the Peace Nobel price for bringing “peace” to Gaza and Ukraine.

Edited Friday at 12:01 AM by Spekulatius