Political Posts

[cubsfan]

On 7/4/2025 at 6:15 AM, cwericb said:

Simply put, Carney has an impressive education AND the track record to back it up. 

 

I would much rather have a proven, successful businessman as PM than a former drama teacher OR a professional politician, which were our choices. 

 

Personally, I have been a capital "C" Conservative all my life, but I am quite happy to have Carney running the Country at this point in history.

 

Carney looks good and talks good. Hopefully for you, he's not another Obama - snake oil salesman that fooled Americans.

 

Like Trump following Biden, Carney has got a huge pile of shit left to him by POS Trudeau...Good luck.

 

His first go with Digital Service Tax - busted.....but Trump will get him in line!

Edited July 5, 2025 by cubsfan

[cubsfan]

On 7/3/2025 at 9:14 PM, cwericb said:

 

Hi TB,

Canada has been blindsided by our American friends and a period of piss poor leadership from our former prime minister. But we are now in the process of getting back on our feet. I think a lot of people here might find this video very interesting.

Many Americans don't really know much about Canada, what do you think about this?  

 

 

 

CW - that was a wonderful video. 

 

The future of Canada is certainly bright and America is collapsing as we speak.

Canadian dominance in energy, agri-business, info tech and shipping is assured.

 

You should be very, very happy!

 

Like all the "experts" that last 5 months - all have predicted this American collapse.

 

Just keep waiting.

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

You're coming around @changegonnacome - I'm sending you my MAGA hat!

Happy 4th!

 

Ha ha just calling it like it is.....not many Presidents with as thin a majority could do what Trump did in the House with the BBB.....he dominates the GOP in a way that no President has since Reagan. He is a master in the leverage of power.

 

Happy 4th weekend.

[Spekulatius]

Another exec (from Transneft) falling from a window of this apartment in Russia:

https://www.newsweek.com/top-russian-oil-executive-dies-moscow-window-fall-2094669

Edited July 5, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

Based in the deal with Vietnam (20% tariffs)  I think the tariffs for most countries or trade blocks (EU) are going to be higher than 10% rate that has been floating around, so still probably inflationary.

I wonder who is going to get dinged with 70% tariffs per Trumps announcement? Next week the letters should go out.

Edited July 6, 2025 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I wonder who is going to get dinged with 70% tariffs

 

I'd say a good guess would be whatever countries haven't done a golf course or hotel JV deal yet with Eric Trump!

[Spekulatius]

6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I'd say a good guess would be whatever countries haven't done a golf course or hotel JV deal yet with Eric Trump!

I think 70% is just a threat, but could be wrong. In any case, I think we are going to see macro headwind from tariffs - not as much as the worst case scenario but much more than the best case scenario which currently seems to be priced into stocks.

[changegonnacome]

36 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

In any case, I think we are going to see macro headwind from tariffs - not as much as the worst case scenario but much more than the best case scenario which currently seems to be priced into stocks.

 

Agree - anecdotally the tariff prices are only starting to be fully felt in supply chains and are making their way to store shelves starting about now......feels to me like were in the midst of slow down at the moment but lets see what the data says in a while.....having said all that I think things re-accelerate afterwards if the scaled down tariff situation emerges as is expected now. 

[Marco Van Basten]

4 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Agree - anecdotally the tariff prices are only starting to be fully felt in supply chains and are making their way to store shelves starting about now......feels to me like were in the midst of slow down at the moment but lets see what the data says in a while.....having said all that I think things re-accelerate afterwards if the scaled down tariff situation emerges as is expected now. 

Imports were $3.36 trillion in 2024.  Even if we assume a 20% tariff across the board, which is not going to happen given the exceptions, et cetera, that's a $672bn increase in costs.   Let's assume that the entire burden is passed on to US consumers, which is highly unlikely.  Then, given given USD 30 trillion in GDP, it is a 2.6% one-time increase in costs.  In reality, given the exceptions, and given the some companies stated that they would eat tariffs, you could have a 1.0% one-time increase in costs.  

[Parsad]

13 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Agreed, though I'd argue that Obama began the divisiveness that plagues politics today.  Nothing will change with the present cast of characters.  Who would have thunk that a communist would ever be in the conversation for mayor of NYC?  That is how far they have digressed.  They believe that the answer is a change of how they present their message.  What they don't understand is the problem is the very substance of their message.

 

The divisiveness really started with Dubya and Cheney...Obama didn't help it...but he certainly didn't start it.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

11 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Carney looks good and talks good. Hopefully for you, he's not another Obama - snake oil salesman that fooled Americans.

 

Like Trump following Biden, Carney has got a huge pile of shit left to him by POS Trudeau...Good luck.

 

His first go with Digital Service Tax - busted.....but Trump will get him in line!

 

Carney plans to make huge cuts to the workforce to reduce costs and reduce the budget deficit.  All without alienating the most underprivileged of citizens and still not pissing off the wealthy ones.  It's something Trump hasn't managed to do, nor plans to as he increases the debt by $4T and is probably a minimum of two years away from reducing budget deficits.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

11 hours ago, TB said:

The NYC mayor seems to be a manufactured candidate according to this forensic accountant 

 

 

 

You're quoting Sam Antar...one of the biggest frauds and crooks in New York history?  Cheers!

[adesigar]

6 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

The divisiveness really started with Dubya and Cheney...Obama didn't help it...but he certainly didn't start it.  Cheers!

It actually started with Newt Gingrich. Id call him a piece of shit but I don’t want to insult shit.

Edited July 6, 2025 by adesigar

[adesigar]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/05/elon-musk-america-party-democrats-trump.html
 

Elon Musks new party.

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Imports were $3.36 trillion in 2024.  Even if we assume a 20% tariff across the board, which is not going to happen given the exceptions, et cetera, that's a $672bn increase in costs.   Let's assume that the entire burden is passed on to US consumers, which is highly unlikely.  Then, given given USD 30 trillion in GDP, it is a 2.6% one-time increase in costs.  In reality, given the exceptions, and given the some companies stated that they would eat tariffs, you could have a 1.0% one-time increase in costs.  

Thai is possible but a rather optimistic take. I think form my experience, US companies that compete with imports will take the opportunity to raise prices also. We already saw this with steel and Aluminum.

 

There are also increased costs from supply chain snarls due to holdups from custom which has trouble processing all those now tariffed goods. Also now you have to document the country of origin not just of the final product but also the components, since it is needed  to calculate the tariffs rate. This can get rather complicated.

 

There are also odd things going on too with Aluminum goods for example. If you can’t prove where your Aluminum comes from, because you bought it from a dealer warehouse, you are now subject to 200% tariff rates , because custom assumes it comes from Russia (which has a punitive 200% tariff rate). So the administrative cost of all this isn’t negligible. I have seen some crazy changes in the cost of good within days on quotes based on what those tariffs rules were that point was. I am sure this is all going to smooth out over time, but still.

Edited July 6, 2025 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

17 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Imports were $3.36 trillion in 2024.  Even if we assume a 20% tariff across the board, which is not going to happen given the exceptions, et cetera, that's a $672bn increase in costs.   Let's assume that the entire burden is passed on to US consumers, which is highly unlikely.  Then, given given USD 30 trillion in GDP, it is a 2.6% one-time increase in costs.  In reality, given the exceptions, and given the some companies stated that they would eat tariffs, you could have a 1.0% one-time increase in costs.  

 

I think that particular analysis is correct in a kinda of macro sense - but it underplays the disruption and indeed destruction your going to see in US manufacturers and SME's for whom China or steel or other low cost producer countries inputs we're an essential part of their business......a reorganization of what makes sense in the new Trump tariff world will be bumpy for many US firms.....I think manufacturing employment in the US for example will go down in the short term before it may go up later on.

[Parsad]

Has Trump tweeted blame on the Biden Administration for the flooding and deaths yet in Texas?  I bet he does by Monday!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

29 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Has Trump tweeted blame on the Biden Administration for the flooding and deaths yet in Texas?  I bet he does by Monday!  Cheers!

 

Didn't take long for one of the nutjobs!  Cheers!

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/maga-congressional-candidate-calls-texas-215509077.html

[Libs]

26 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Didn't take long for one of the nutjobs!  Cheers!

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/maga-congressional-candidate-calls-texas-215509077.html

 

She is deranged, but at least other Republicans called her out for it. Other than Fetterman, I don't see that from Democrats.

[whiskybravo]

Speaking about the Texas floods which involve the hill country, where LBJ is from.  In the first volume of Robert Caro’s wonderful biography of LBJ “The Path to Power,” he describes the thin clay rich soil over limestone which made farming there a heartbreaking futile enterprise.  In the recent flooding it has played a tragic role because it can hold so little water.

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

Speaking about the Texas floods which involve the hill country, where LBJ is from.  In the first volume of Robert Caro’s wonderful biography of LBJ “The Path to Power,” he describes the thin clay rich soil over limestone which made farming there a heartbreaking futile enterprise.  In the recent flooding it has played a tragic role because it can hold so little water.

 

A number of news outlets are also saying that DOGE cuts to the NOAA might have contributed to the delayed evacuation alerts and evaluating data as the rain fell.  Cheers! 

[changegonnacome]

8 hours ago, Parsad said:

A number of news outlets are also saying that DOGE cuts to the NOAA might have contributed to the delayed evacuation alerts and evaluating data as the rain fell.  Cheers! 

 

You dont miss your useless lazy overpaid tenured waste fraud and abuse bureaucrats till something tragic happens....like 20 kids from Camp Mystic - then you realize that maybe there was a point to it all.......lets wait for all the details to come out.......but early indications even from Musk's own truth maximizing AI agent Grok are pointing that way - 

 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

 

Expect the chant to 'finish off' Iran's nuclear program to grow louder and louder as Trump's Presidency continues......and to be clear.....finish off may sound like more aerial bombs to the lay person....but in reality to truly 'finish off' Iran's program you require regime change....and regime change cannot be achieved via aerial bombardment.

 

A commentator made a great point recently - that with the IAEA shut out of Iran  and unlikely to get back in anytime soon...the world is flying blind re:Iran nuclear program capability.....into that blind spot Bibi can inflate the Iranian nuclear to whatever degree he wishes to fulfill his ultimate aim of regime change in Tehran and its very hard for an American administration to  counter those claims.....Bibi has 3.5yrs left to fulfill his life's work...in Donald vs. Bibi bake-off....I'd bet on Bibi all day long.

Edited July 7, 2025 by changegonnacome

[whiskybravo]

12 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

A number of news outlets are also saying that DOGE cuts to the NOAA might have contributed to the delayed evacuation alerts and evaluating data as the rain fell.  Cheers! 

Let me know if you get to the truth, because if true this would be unconscionable!  I think we can admit the not unlikely possibility that these sorts of talking points would be advanced without any substantiation.

 

My hope is that, like Buffett’s approach to being hyper attentive to costs in running a business, we can, while allowing for inherent differences between public and private concerns, hope to continually prune where possible and provide taxpayers with the best government for their hard earned tax dollars.  I would hate to think we are obligated to accept forever hypertrophying government.  

Edited July 7, 2025 by whiskybravo

[whiskybravo]

3 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

You dont miss your useless lazy overpaid tenured waste fraud and abuse bureaucrats till something tragic happens....like 20 kids from Camp Mystic - then you realize that maybe there was a point to it all.......lets wait for all the details to come out.......but early indications even from Musk's own truth maximizing AI agent Grok are pointing that way - 

 

 

 

If these deaths were due to horrifically executed DOGE cuts, it would not be cuts to overpaid, lazy, tenured bureaucrats.  No it would be cuts to qualified competent executives.  Lazy bureaucrats would not have been key to providing the timely alerts which would have saved lives.

Edited July 7, 2025 by whiskybravo