Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

17 hours ago, Parsad said:

TACO Tuesday arrives early...but "Where's The Beef?"  Cheers!

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/trump-says-hes-called-off-191419235.html

 

Hang on why we're contemplating going back to bombing? I thought the blockade of the blockade was going to get Iran to capitulate about a month ago? Most recently Project Freedom was going to fix things and of course Epic Fury was the original silver bullet fix the problem of Trump finding out that its hard to do much better than the JCPOA.

 

In the future when you look up 'stuck' in the dictionary there will be a picture of Trump with an Iranian flag behind him  

 

I wonder when Iran will give Trump a formulation of words that is sellable enough to allow him to do the TACO of all TACOs and off ramp to Cuba....all while shouting treason and fake news at newspapers and media outlets that dare to point how no strategic progress was made after billions upon billions was spent, hundreds of billions more of indirect costs incurred by the global economy and lives lost all to move the nuclear football zero yards down the field.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

At this point, they probably dont need an off ramp. It's more akin to Iran being equivalent to pesky seasonal ants. Theyre annoying, but hardly debilitating. More than anything you keep trying to spray, deter, get them to just stop, but theyre too dumb to just go away. Theres no reasoning with them. Eventually you call Orkin and.....

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

At this point, they probably dont need an off ramp.

 

Trump needs the SOH re-opened.....end of story.

 

What he needs from the Iranian's now is some formulation of words that he can construct into a media package that he but also his surrogates can sell the shit out of and spin into a justification for this whole episode. Easily done if this was just a bilateral conflict but its a trilateral one including Israel.

 

So IMO Trump needs to get this whole horse and pony show put together before Israel holds elections in early Sept to ensure the 'messaging' from Bibi on the great Trump victory over Iran is aligned. Trump remains a hugely popular figure in Israel and well Israeli's understand how dependent they are on the US security umbrella and so Trump's endorsement is vital. This endorsement can be tangled over Bibi's head who needs to stay in power to stay out of prison - motivation enough, one might assume, to make sure everybody is singing from the same V for Victory hymn sheet.

 

The only risk in this is the Iranian's overplay their hand here....the window where the US and Iran get the off ramp they need and said off ramp can be forced down Bibi throat is essentially the next couple of months.

 

Edited May 19 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Trump needs the SOH re-opened.....end of story.

 

What he needs from the Iranian's now is some formulation of words that he can construct into a media package that he but also his surrogates can sell the shit out of and spin into a justification for this whole episode. Easily done if this was just a bilateral conflict but its a trilateral one including Israel.

 

So IMO Trump needs to get this whole horse and pony show put together before Israel holds elections in early Sept to ensure the 'messaging' from Bibi on the great Trump victory over Iran is aligned. Trump remains a hugely popular figure in Israel and well Israeli's understand how dependent they are on the US security umbrella and so Trump's endorsement is vital. This endorsement can be tangled over Bibi's head who needs to stay in power to stay out of prison - motivation enough, one might assume, to make sure everybody is singing from the same V for Victory hymn sheet.

 

The only risk in this is the Iranian's overplay their hand here....the window where the US and Iran get the off ramp they need and said off ramp can be forced down Bibi throat is essentially the next couple of months.

 

Theyre all cutting it very close. I almost spit my drink out the other day seeing a headline about "Trump and Republicans to focus on affordability ahead of mid terms"....Yea, adding $50 a barrel and 15% to mortgage rates for no reason was really smart LMFAO My guess is they need to reverse that super quick or they probably go off the rails on Iran.

[changegonnacome]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Theyre all cutting it very close. I almost spit my drink out the other day seeing a headline about "Trump and Republicans to focus on affordability ahead of mid terms"....Yea, adding $50 a barrel and 15% to mortgage rates for no reason was really smart LMFAO My guess is they need to reverse that super quick or they probably go off the rails on Iran.

 

Yep. I think the Trump timeline is little tighter than the Iranian one. The midterms starting gun traditionally starts after memorial day. I firmly believe the Iranians know Trump's off ramp is contingent on messaging alignment with Bibi and Bibi staying on message can only be guaranteed for the next few months.

 

All told the optimal time for a deal is probably over the next couple of weeks. 

[Sweet]

Why would Iran make such a deal though.  Fucking up the midterm is payback for them.

[changegonnacome]

32 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Why would Iran make such a deal though.  Fucking up the midterm is payback for them.

 

The midterms are already fucked up.

 

As I said - Iran know that Trump is in a bind.....he wants to go home and declare a victory...its in Iran's interest he goes home....Iran is happy to let him sell a victory domestically to the US population, the chief spoiler in that sales job will be Bibi and AIPAC.....the Israeli elections are slated for potentially early September.....between now and then Trump has enormous leverage over Bibi to effectively call off the AIPAC attack dogs on whatever deal he does..... in exchange Trump gives Bibi a resounding endorsement......after September with a new Israeli government in place with Bibi on top or who knows an even more hawkish PM the ability of POTUS to control messaging diminishes greatly.

 

Put it together - optimal timing for a deal for POTUS is next couple of weeks. Optimal time for Iran is probably a couple of weeks after POTUS's optimal time....but this mess needs to get packaged up over the early summer with a heavy lid put on top before Israel goes to the polls in early September.

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep. I think the Trump timeline is little tighter than the Iranian one. The midterms starting gun traditionally starts after memorial day. I firmly believe the Iranians know Trump's off ramp is contingent on messaging alignment with Bibi and Bibi staying on message can only be guaranteed for the next few months.

 

All told the optimal time for a deal is probably over the next couple of weeks. 

Keep in mind that treasury yields are increasing and now the 30 year solidly a over 5% yield. This despite mostly financing the deficit with short term treasuries which is exactly what he critiqued Yellen for.

 

A stock market correction would force Trump hand as it would hurt the benefactors of the k- shaped economy. The plebs are already hurting for a while.

[changegonnacome]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

A stock market correction would force Trump hand as it would hurt the benefactors of the k- shaped economy. The plebs are already hurting for a while.

 

Totally....in a Soros reflexivity sort of way the stock market has kept Trump in the war longer than he would have optherwise with a 20% drawdown lets say.

 

Like last I count and including this week I think we are on Trump's sixth ultimatum to Iran its become almost comical...

 

But he's doing what all President's do when they get in a quagmire, he's praying, hoping the facts on the ground somehow change with time .....as you quite rightly point out SPY/QQQ hopium has given him the hopium that he can stick it out a while longer to see if anything changes.....eating crow is not something any President but especially this President wants to do! And surely its clear now to Trump that without some miracle he is going to have eat an adult sized portion of it....and as I said last thing he needs is Bibi/AIPAC piling on behind the NYTs, CNN, MSNBC & DNC.....so best to eat that crow soon such that you can at least have leverage over Israeli messaging via your endorsement.

 

[Maverick47]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Why would Iran make such a deal though.  Fucking up the midterm is payback for them.

You got that right.  They hated Carter enough that they didn’t end the hostage crisis until after he lost the election to Reagan.  Never underestimate the attractiveness of personal revenge as a motivation over and above rational dispassionate economic motives.

[cubsfan]

15 minutes ago, Maverick47 said:

You got that right.  They hated Carter enough that they didn’t end the hostage crisis until after he lost the election to Reagan.  Never underestimate the attractiveness of personal revenge as a motivation over and above rational dispassionate economic motives.

 

That's pretty funny really. So many of these guys can end up dead, just like the dozens of other IRGC leaders. 

 

So you get your "revenge" on Trump,  but you're dead.

 

Trump will take that side all day long. LOL

[Maverick47]

49 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

That's pretty funny really. So many of these guys can end up dead, just like the dozens of other IRGC leaders. 

 

So you get your "revenge" on Trump,  but you're dead.

I guess they figure they get the benefits of martyrdom if they’re dead.  The prospect doesn’t appear to bother them as much as it would me, if I were in their shoes.

 

Trump’s not immune from the enticement of thoughts of revenge either.  He got his on Cassidy, but now Cassidy feels fine with voting for Iran war power limitations resolutions.

 

As a species, rational actors we humans are not…

[Spekulatius]

The problem with making a deal with Trump is that he does keep his side of deals. As a rule, you never want to give Trump something permanently (like giving up enriched Uranium) when Trump tends to renegate his part of the deal at a whim. It onlymakes sese to make a deal with Trump if you can renagatd as well. I would be surprised if they agree to giving up their enriched Uranium for a promise from Trumpowhich he tends to rip up constantly.

[Mephistopheles]

Not a peep about the Trump IRS deal! I’d love to be audit free for myself and my family and my business forever and get handed $2 billion on top. How do I sign up??

 

And I’m all for avoiding taxes as much as possible. What a lucky family!

Edited May 20 by Mephistopheles

[LC]

I was just about to post this:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/57334fae-a475-4ab0-a202-8df3766927e4?syn-25a6b1a6=1
 

Quote

 

US tax authorities will be barred from pursuing claims against Donald Trump, his eldest sons and the Trump Organization under an agreement to halt the president’s $10bn lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service. The pledge by the Department of Justice on Tuesday came a day after Trump agreed to settle his lawsuit against the IRS in exchange for the US government launching a $1.8bn fund for victims of alleged “lawfare”.

 

The pledge by the Department of Justice on Tuesday came a day after Trump agreed to settle his lawsuit against the IRS in exchange for the US government launching a $1.8bn fund for victims of alleged “lawfare”.

 

 

Amazing what happens when you elect a felon. 

[Mephistopheles]

7 minutes ago, LC said:

I was just about to post this:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/57334fae-a475-4ab0-a202-8df3766927e4?syn-25a6b1a6=1
 

 

Amazing what happens when you elect a felon. 

Maybe Elon musk can DOGE save us another couple billion

 

Can’t wait to see the cult crawl out of Trump’s ass to defend this one

[Maverick47]

1 hour ago, Mephistopheles said:

Not a peep about the Trump IRS deal! I’d love to be audit free for myself and my family and my business forever and get handed $2 billion on top. How do I sign up??

 

And I’m all for avoiding taxes as much as possible. What a lucky family!

The “sticker” price of this theft of taxpayer funds is bad enough…until you stop to realize that the US Treasury has been running chronic deficits, so this is in fact another addition to the national debt.  We’ll all get the opportunity to keep paying for this through our taxes for the rest of our lives and those of all future generations as well.  
 

Might as well call it the Trump and friends tax.

Edited May 20 by Maverick47

[Parsad]

10 hours ago, Gregmal said:

At this point, they probably dont need an off ramp. It's more akin to Iran being equivalent to pesky seasonal ants. Theyre annoying, but hardly debilitating. More than anything you keep trying to spray, deter, get them to just stop, but theyre too dumb to just go away. Theres no reasoning with them. Eventually you call Orkin and.....

 

Not sure Trump has the cahones to actually do that.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

9 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Theyre all cutting it very close. I almost spit my drink out the other day seeing a headline about "Trump and Republicans to focus on affordability ahead of mid terms"....Yea, adding $50 a barrel and 15% to mortgage rates for no reason was really smart LMFAO My guess is they need to reverse that super quick or they probably go off the rails on Iran.

 

Yup.  He still has clout...as we've seen with what happened to Massie today.  But they've sown their own oats here and they ain't quick oats!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, LC said:

I was just about to post this:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/57334fae-a475-4ab0-a202-8df3766927e4?syn-25a6b1a6=1
 

 

Amazing what happens when you elect a felon. 

 

I just don't understand how this is possible.  How can the Justice Department even approve such a thing? 

 

It's completely indefensible!  It's even beyond what most other dictators get in terms of privilege.  Cheers!

[dwy000]

3 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I just don't understand how this is possible.  How can the Justice Department even approve such a thing? 

 

It's completely indefensible!  It's even beyond what most other dictators get in terms of privilege.  Cheers!

why do you need protection from audits?  I guess same reason you don't want the Epstein files released.  

[Parsad]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

why do you need protection from audits?  I guess same reason you don't want the Epstein files released.  

 

Sure.  But one is preventing release of possibly incriminating documents or references.  The other is not even reviewing them. 

 

Yeah, the line isn't much different, but essentially one is lying for him...the other is not even investigating on behalf of the American people!  

 

There is a big difference between weaponization and simply a government agency doing their job.  Cheers!

[Sweet]

I know it’s going to be difficult for some to understand, but when the structures of government are turned into a political weapon against Trump and his friends, you kind of just shrug at ‘no more audit’ stuff.  Improper use of government begets improper use of government.  It’s like the universe balancing itself out.  Democrats can only really call this out when they stop doing it themselves.

[John Hjorth]

17 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

@changegonnacome,

 

It's just so awesome, that it's actually pure play mean! 

[John Hjorth]

 

Greenland sitation now, by Orla Joelsen, by opening of new consulate in Nuuk :

 

 

Jeff Landry out making new friends with some MAGA hats! 

 

[If you already have tried to achieve something by a certain appoach, that has proved it self not to work, you'd better try to come up with a new one, if you try again! ]

 

Outcome for me personally as I would expect ! [... one Greenlander gave his [Landry's, John] entourage the finger, ... After he offered some MAGA hats to Greenlandic children, several shook their heads.]

Edited May 20 by John Hjorth