Political Posts

[Gregmal]

51 minutes ago, NotSoWise said:

As per the latest news, it is 4 ships now that have crossed the SOH/ US blockade. What a joke...

So when Iran has "the straight closed", and ships are getting through, a certain bunch, carry on a narrative that "Iran holds all the cards"....when the US is blocking it, and some ships get through(apparently, although Im guessing something shoddy like Twitter is the source for this), its a total joke and the straight is "open" and the blockade is ineffective? The purpose of anyone blocking it, is to cause disruption and chaos. Unless you are unilaterally going to destroy anything going thru, and wage war on those respective countries, thats all this is. Does anyone really think the US is going to takeout Chinese ships lmfao?

 

The whole purpose of investment framework is to remove the narratives of bad actors and noise and at least make sure the parameters and framework are solid. Thats why some people here have opinions that are totally worthless, especially when expressed in the politics thread. 

 

Sooo.. things like 

1 hour ago, NotSoWise said:

The idea in theory was good, but in practice it could only work if US was ready to go to war with China, which is not.

 

In theory it's exactly what it is. A stunt that just keeps the SOH in a state of disruption. If one really wants to go further, you ask whom benefits from this. This folks drunk on a media narrative have been desperately trying to tell us that Iran benefits as apparently they have "all the time in the world"....I mean maybe the underground bunkers are luxurious, but for a bunch of guys in a game of whackamole....any objective person can call BS on this narrative. Look a little deeper and you see the true beneficiaries of this disruption are....NA O&G exporters....

 

1 hour ago, NotSoWise said:

Iran situation is already called the worst decision in US foreign policy ever - even worse than Iraq war by Bush.

This is pretty laughable as well. Void of historical knowledge. From a purely tactical standpoint, the risk/reward was actually pretty obviously favorable for taking a shot on Iran. I say this as someone's who's completely opposed to the war. The area where this was utterly stupid was strictly from the position of "Im a republican president with a razor thin margin and mid terms 6 months away"...thats it. From a foreign policy perspective, not only are there numerous examples of real blunders over the 250 years of US existence, but theres also so much evidence that if one wanted to take a shot at Iran, now was a pretty damn good time to try. 

 

1 hour ago, NotSoWise said:

In general, I am pro US, but this unfortunate event could result in increasing probability of more negative outcomes like Taiwan joining China (they dont want to be the next Ukraine), Baltic countries attacked by Russia over the next 3-4 years, etc.

How? If you look at how those countries operate, this is plain silly. Russia has outright admitted they waited for Biden before going into Ukraine because he was a pushover. But, I get it. The MSM narrative of "AHAH! Trump couldn't end the Ukraine War on Day 1! Putins Puppet!" is powerful....

 

 

Edited April 14 by Gregmal

[Hektor]

Saudi Arabia Is Pressing U.S. to Drop Its Naval Blockade

Gulf energy exporters worry Iran could escalate and close the Bab al-Mandeb, the main exit route for bottlenecked Persian Gulf oil

 

 

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-us-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-25fbd430

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, Hektor said:

Saudi Arabia Is Pressing U.S. to Drop Its Naval Blockade

Gulf energy exporters worry Iran could escalate and close the Bab al-Mandeb, the main exit route for bottlenecked Persian Gulf oil

 

 

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-us-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-25fbd430

Bullshit. The Twitter guys are saying the US blockade is an ineffective joke. 

[NotSoWise]

When Iran closed the SOH - all non-Iranian ships couldnt get through - those who tried were damaged or had to go back. Iran blockade was 100% working for non-Iranian ships.

 

When US did blockade (on top of Iranian), allied ships could not get through (because of Iran), but Iranian linked could get through (Chinese, 80% of Iranian traffic).

 

If 80%of Iranian linked ships are Chinese and US didnt want to take them out, then what sense was it to have a blockade - US blockade is simply a joke.

 

The source was BBC - relatively objective, reliable source.

 

My post is purely political - does not relate to any investment ideas. NA O&G clearly benefits, but since oil is a global commodity with globally set price, all the consumers and all the US industry that uses oil as raw materials pay higher price, which is to their detriment. Net, net is probably negative for all stakeholders in US.

 

Risk/reward has to be weighted by probability. Reward was great, but at 5-10% success rate (all Trump advisors told him it is unlikely to happen), cost of risk was also high in my view but its probability was very high 90-95%. So from my perspective the risk/ reward weighted by probability was pretty bad. But I agree, if it was successful, US would control lots of oil, good negotiating point against China.

 

Agree, Biden made the Russian invasion more likely. However, it was not possible to close the war in one day/ week/ month, by anybody, even by Trump. His promise to shut it down was presidential campaign marketing or stupidity (I think the former). He also promissed not to make wars and focus on US and here we come with Iran war...

 

 

[NotSoWise]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Bullshit. The Twitter guys are saying the US blockade is an ineffective joke. 

Greg, you misrepresent the facts, below some explanation:

 

1. US blockade is a joke, because Chinese ships with Iran oil can go through. (Chinese not paying any fees to US...)

2. Iran blockade in SOH is working fine, as Arab oil cant go through via SOH. Ships cant go through unless they pay USD 2m fee.

3. Saudi Arabia sends its oil via pipeline only, to Red Sea - (but only Saudi because of pipeline, the rest of Arabs cant export at all via SOH). And Saudi A. is worried that Houthis will close the Red Sea or Iran damage the pipeline, which can happen if escalation.

 

The source was not Twitter, but BBC, quite reliable source, unlike Twitter BS.

[Gregmal]

As long as there’s disruption to the SOH, the situation is effectively UNCH as far as putting it in stock terms. Theres this vapid instinctual need for many people and outlets to constant assign winners and losers to every single situation. Whether its the US or Iran disrupting things isn’t really relevant other than to the extent that Iran(again pulling this back to the timing being somewhat strategic) having made, an continuing to make lots of neighbors their enemy. 
 

Until something on those fronts change, it’s all largely worthless daytime drama tv. 

Edited April 14 by Gregmal

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, NotSoWise said:

Today two Chinese ships went via SOH through US blockade - they were asked by US Navy to stop - but didnt give a f...k about this stop request. US Navy did not chase them, did not take over these ships and did not shoot at them. With 80% of Iran's oil export going to China - this US blockade is clearly not working.

 

The idea in theory was good, but in practice it could only work if US was ready to go to war with China, which is not.

 

Can we call it a TACO?

 

Wars are not about how many you kill or what you damage, they are about bending the will of the adversary, to make him do what you want (e.g. Venezuela). Iran situation is already called the worst decision in US foreign policy ever - even worse than Iraq war by Bush.

 

In general, I am pro US, but this unfortunate event could result in increasing probability of more negative outcomes like Taiwan joining China (they dont want to be the next Ukraine), Baltic countries attacked by Russia over the next 3-4 years, etc.

 

 

Think about the financial cost after all of this, the deaths, etc. and we are still not even back to the original $1.7B Obama deal that the GOP and MAGA criticized as a payment to Iran...which looks like a bargain now!  Yeah, Biden paid too much, but the original Obama deal isn't nearly as bad as the critics would make it.   

 

What the fuck is the U.S. doing now?  Probably spent 50 times as much already ($1B per day just in military), then add up all other costs, including the cost of oil and damage to the U.S. economy alone...looking at well over $500B if it goes on for another month or so!  Atlantic City all over again!  This guy is a menace to financial stability!

 

Cheers!

 

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

That’s quite the extrapolation 

 

It comes down to whether the US actually interdicts all Chinese owned cargo. They don't, and every cargo going out of the SOH is sold to China, then resold to someone else once the ship is on the open seas. Iran wins, China wins, and the US navy is demonstrated to be an obsolete joke that can no longer maintain a power projection in the age of drones. 

 

The US treasury also needs some of that physical crude to deliver against all its shorts; it sucks when you sell more production than you actually have  Buy that exposure back, and WTI is > USD 100/bbl again  

 

The reality of course, is that the oil WILL flow; just not as the US wants it. Last of the deliveries, pre SOH closure, arrive on the US coast this week .... then the SPR draws start.

 

SD

 

 

[73 Reds]

31 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Think about the financial cost after all of this, the deaths, etc. and we are still not even back to the original $1.7B Obama deal that the GOP and MAGA criticized as a payment to Iran...which looks like a bargain now!  Yeah, Biden paid too much, but the original Obama deal isn't nearly as bad as the critics would make it.   

 

What the fuck is the U.S. doing now?  Probably spent 50 times as much already ($1B per day just in military), then add up all other costs, including the cost of oil and damage to the U.S. economy alone...looking at well over $500B if it goes on for another month or so!  Atlantic City all over again!  This guy is a menace to financial stability!

 

Cheers!

 

The original Obama deal is one of the very reasons why we are in this pickle now.  But heck, it didn't cost Canada anything at the time so it must be all good.

[Parsad]

16 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The original Obama deal is one of the very reasons why we are in this pickle now.  But heck, it didn't cost Canada anything at the time so it must be all good.

 

Nope...Canada just suffered casualties in Afghanistan for 13 years and Iraq during the Gulf War and since 2014 for you guys!  Heck, it must be so easy to discount your friends efforts with that massive ego!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

34 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

the US navy is demonstrated to be an obsolete joke that can no longer maintain a power projection in the age of drone

Eh that’s a wee little bit of a stretch. The odds of the US Navy blowing up Chinese ships was always zero. Expensive demonstration/rhetoric? Sure. Obsolete…almost as bogus as the “Iran winning just by surviving” rhetoric. 

Edited April 14 by Gregmal

[John Hjorth]

Meanwhile :

 

[aws]

FWIW Centcom says zero ships passed in 24 hours

 

 

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Meanwhile :

 

Yup. Just like with Ukraine, the folks swallowing the hand fed hysteria will be left behind. 

[SharperDingaan]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

Eh that’s a wee little bit of a stretch. The odds of the US Navy blowing up Chinese ships was always zero. Expensive demonstration/rhetoric? Sure. Obsolete…almost as bogus as the “Iran winning just by surviving” rhetoric. 

 

Nah, in the days of gunboat diplomacy ... one just sailed up, seized the top people, and pounded the shore line in impunity to demonstrate your power. Simply grab the land, and there was little the other guy could do about it. Life was good!

 

Bigger ships, bigger guns, and better aircraft; you could still pound the other guy, but now you had to do it from further offshore ... outside of the range of the other guy. Same as before, just harder, and now a lot more expensive.

 

Today ....  the other guy has cheap air/sea drones, ship-killer missiles, and video. Now your ships cannot be anywhere near the shore, for fear of an expensive sinking .... that everyone can now see (via video). Now you have to blockade and sink everything; before bribery does its thing ... and those 'passing' ships are caught on drone video 

 

Expensive shells and missiles vs cheap drones. Expensive capital ships at risk, vs cheap Ukrainian sea drones that work. Today? it's much more much shock and awe, with a glass jaw 

 

Times have changed.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

24 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yup. Just like with Ukraine, the folks swallowing the hand fed hysteria will be left behind. 

 

I'm at 4 percent cash right now, it hasen't been that large since 2017, I think, I can't figure out what to do with it. So I'm on another shopping spree these days, covering all my other shortcomings!  So now, I'm surfing the wave of popularity!  

 

-Eventually, I'll figure it out, or alternatively f**k it up! 

Edited April 14 by John Hjorth

[cubsfan]

48 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Eh that’s a wee little bit of a stretch. The odds of the US Navy blowing up Chinese ships was always zero. Expensive demonstration/rhetoric? Sure. Obsolete…almost as bogus as the “Iran winning just by surviving” rhetoric. 

 

SD is so tongue in cheek.... Obsolete? 

 

He knows that Iran has launched 110 missiles against US Navy ships - ALL of them shot down.

 

When has that EVER happened in Naval warfare??

 

But I guess the BBC still says Iran is winning,,,

[Hektor]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

It comes down to whether the US actually interdicts all Chinese owned cargo. They don't,

 

Sanctioned Chinese Tanker Makes U-Turn in Hormuz After U.S. Blockade Takes Effect

 

A sanctioned Chinese tanker with a history of evading U.S. restrictions on Iranian oil appeared to do a U-turn to sail back into the Persian Gulf after trying to exit through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

The Rich Starry, built to carry chemicals and oil products and flying a false Malawian flag, made it past the narrowest stretch of the strait before turning around on Tuesday, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. The apparent change of direction came a day after the U.S. blockade of ships sailing to and from Iranian ports took effect.

 

 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Yup. Just like with Ukraine, the folks swallowing the hand fed hysteria will be left behind. 

 

Not hand fed hysteria...the risks are real. 

 

That being said, investors should take advantage of any volatility to buy stuff cheap and rebalance as things go back up.  Up over 10% in the last month...with more gains coming!

 

But the risks are there if this thing goes on and on...so let's not pretend it's a nothing burger either.  It's a fluid situation with a crazy man at the helm and a crazy regime on the other side dropping anchor at full speed!  Cheers!

 

Trumps next plan to get tankers across the Strait!

 

[Gregmal]

33 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

But I guess the BBC still says Iran is winning,,,

In a way, it's similar to the narrative around a local issue. Here on 30A, theres this nagging hot topic of "customary use". It basically means beaches are private, minus the 5 ft space of wet sand. One of the big cases, involves a fairly famous dude, Backstreet Boy, Brian Littrell. It's presented as if hes a greedy psycho rich guy with private security that quickly confronts anyone walking on the part of the beach thats within his parcel. His adversary, is some supposedly retired lady from Freeport. Freeport meaning she has to drive over the bridge and pass a bunch of public beach access points, to get to the spot she likes to camp out at, on Littrells property. Well, Littrell has sued here in Walton County Court. The predominant "narrative" amongst locals and the media is that Littrell bad, nuisance lady good. They went to court, and eventually the case was dismissed in favor of the lady on a technicality. Littrells lawyers refiled the suite...on and on. Every time, the narrative is "lady destroys greedy backstreet boy in court"...what really occurred? Retired lady who needs Gofundme to pay for her legal expenses, got a case dismissed, and rich backstreet boy who's spending money thats immaterial to him, just tells his lawyer, "rinse, repeat"...if nothing else, just cuz he CAN spend more than this lady. And because in reality, her "victories" and "destroys him in court"'s end up harming her dearly(just like "winning" by "surviving" despite known names being blown up and those anons hiding in bunkers...). While only merely being "annoying" to Littrell. The same narrative vs reality more or less exists with the US/Iran war. Folks need to be sensational and redefine victories based on narratives, not realities. And those that chose to do so and actually believe it, are stupider because of it. 

[rogermunibond]

A 46 day game of chicken between US/Israel and the Iranian Regime that everyone including the combatants are tired of.

 

 

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

Nope...Canada just suffered casualties in Afghanistan for 13 years and Iraq during the Gulf War and since 2014 for you guys!  Heck, it must be so easy to discount your friends efforts with that massive ego!  Cheers!

You like to change the subject.... the original deal cost Canada nothing and you didn't feel threatened even as you and all Westerners were but didn't know it.  There is no price large enough to avoid nuclear weapons winding up in the wrong hands.  Especially those who don't value life, either theirs or anyone else's.  

[SharperDingaan]

We're just for crude to start flowing again; so far, WTI is down USD 6+ today, and still falling ....

 

Lower gas prices always welcome, along with the strong probability of being able to buy back stock, in quantity, for a lot less that we sold it at. Never waste a good opportunity 

 

The 'navy/force projection' thing? It's 2026 and a different world, these things are a time limited engagement. Every wartime both sides bring up their heavy ordinance, they pound each other, and typically sink because of some thing that hadn't been conceived of. Evolution.

 

The 'blockade' thing. Friends remind that its great for business  but the reality is that they seldom work unless enforced, and are in place for a great many months. A few weeks just makes some folks richer, but doesn't really change anything. 

 

The obvious nearer term solution is a permanent UN naval security force, using existing gulf bases; US out, UN in. No Iranian nukes for X years, reparation payments (via toll fee's) across the Gulf for the same X years. War stops for everyone, the US goes home, and resumed trade starts working all these additional costs down.

 

What happens after that ? ... keep the long straddles on Orange Boy 

 

SD

 

 

[dwy000]

12 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

You like to change the subject.... the original deal cost Canada nothing and you didn't feel threatened even as you and all Westerners were but didn't know it.  There is no price large enough to avoid nuclear weapons winding up in the wrong hands.  Especially those who don't value life, either theirs or anyone else's.  

You mean like Putin.  Or North Korea.  Or Pakistan.  Or China.  Or Israel.  

[Parsad]

23 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

You like to change the subject.... the original deal cost Canada nothing and you didn't feel threatened even as you and all Westerners were but didn't know it.  There is no price large enough to avoid nuclear weapons winding up in the wrong hands.  Especially those who don't value life, either theirs or anyone else's.  

 

Wait a sec...this is your exact quote to me saying that the Obama deal wasn't as bad as critics made out, and a tiny fraction of the current cost far exceeds what was spent!

 

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

The original Obama deal is one of the very reasons why we are in this pickle now.  But heck, it didn't cost Canada anything at the time so it must be all good.

 

So who changed the subject?  You brought Canada into a discussion that was about the Obama deal by the U.S. 

 

You do this all the time...so does Cubs!  Flip-floppers!  "Oh yeah, but Canada did this...NATO cowards did this...who bailed France's ass last time...maybe get some balls and do it yourself!"  

 

Getting tiresome...actually, exhausting...that's why I flip-flop between this site and everything else I have to do all day!  Cheers!