Political Posts

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, dealraker said:

I think the only thing Trump should fear is Mr. Market.  I think Mr. Market owns the economy - not visa versa - and while Trump owns the media and thus all of us I think he would be severely weakened by a lengthy down market - that of course took the economy with it.  

 

Right now?  Trump knows he can run Mr. Market up to any level he desires with a tweet.  That makes him very secure for now.  

 

Not bad Deal, not bad.  

 

He definitely needs to fear the market and economy more than Iran, that's for sure.

[Viking]

Here is a nice summary of importance of the Middle East to the fertilizer market. Like with oil and LNG, fertilizer is a critical input to the global economy. Much lower supply is a big problem. As is much higher prices.

 

[Castanza]

53 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

 

 

 - And then the whole thing starts all over again!  - Perhaps it would be an idea to blame Buffett for this whole Iranian bloody mess?!  - Just to break the malignant circle! 

 

Please don't let Blake [ @Blake Hampton ] carry fuel to the fire here.

All in jest for sure, and Blake is too smart to be this dumb (my opinion). But the framework which he views the world of finance reminds me of my depression era grandparents. If I remember correctly he does something finance related with the govt. To each their own, but opportunity cost is a real thing. I mean just looking at SPY vs OXY the last 3-4 years and you’ve got to think to yourself…”maybe I should dip my toes in the market a little.”

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

 

Less than before...when he looked like Peking Duck...but still more orange than normal.  Cheers!

 

 

Eventually the paint has to come off.

[Castanza]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-forever-mission-us-colonel-on-trumps-strait/id1712903296?i=1000756812618

 

This has been a solid podcast/news resource for the Iran Conflict. It’s way too early to call anything a success imo and I think there will be quite a bit of volatility moving forward. I agree with the guest of this episode that sending the 2000 strong Marine force into the SOH is a big risk and way more messy than most think. This goes served under Petraeus and seems to believe it’s a very messy situation just to get the marines into the SOH. 
 

I’m not a military expert, but have always been a Shakespeare fan and the phrase “Tempt not a desperate man” rings in the back of my mind. Can’t imagine the fallout if Iran killed any significant amount of these Marines in route to the SOH. 

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Castanza said:

I’m not a military expert, but have always been a Shakespeare fan and the phrase “Tempt not a desperate man” rings in the back of my mind. 

 

That's a wonderful phrase, might be re-phrased in regards to Iran  "Trust not a desperate man"

 

The Iranian Regime is not to be trusted one bit.

They get their 5 day reprieve from Trump in order to stop the total destruction of the energy grid, lucky for them.  Meanwhile Israel & USA continue "bombs away" on military targets, missiles, etc, etc.  Rather clever if you ask me.  Iran gets to put up or shut up on SOH - during their 5 day negotiations - while the destruction of their fighting capabilities continues.

 

You think Trump will let up knowing he can do anything he likes with Kharg Island - as he has demonstrated already?    Or the energy grid?

 

Iran is still a target rich environment - and we will soon find out what Iran has up their sleeve.

 

But Iran is certainly not to be trusted.

[Spekulatius]

I think Taco’d on one thing. The rise of energy prices led him to cease sanctions on Russian oil and also on Iranian oil. Let this sink in- Iranian oil has been sanctioned for a long time and now that there are open hostilities, the sanction on Russian oil have been dropped.

 

I think it tells us that while the US/Israel do inter militarily, there is a risk to lose the war politically due to the negative externalities.

 

The rising energy prices due to supply not getting out for example are huge negative for the economy , especially  the third world and the gulf states. Russia for example now generates far more cash to fuel their war machine which could negate any success in Iran.

 

Each war has a military angle as well as a political one. To win, you have to win politically by achieving your goals because you can absolutely win a war dominating militarily but lose politically. A prime example was Vietnam where the US dominated militarily and won every single battle but lost the war, because it became clear that the political goals could not get achieved in any reasonable timeframe and with acceptable cost.

I think this is why Trump has kept his goals intentionally vague. That way, he can use whatever results he gets and claim victory of sorts.

[Castanza]

11 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

That's a wonderful phrase, might be re-phrased in regards to Iran  "Trust not a desperate man"

 

The Iranian Regime is not to be trusted one bit.

They get their 5 day reprieve from Trump in order to stop the total destruction of the energy grid, lucky for them.  Meanwhile Israel & USA continue "bombs away" on military targets, missiles, etc, etc.  Rather clever if you ask me.  Iran gets to put up or shut up on SOH - during their 5 day negotiations - while the destruction of their fighting capabilities continues.

 

You think Trump will let up knowing he can do anything he likes with Kharg Island - as he has demonstrated already?    Or the energy grid?

 

Iran is still a target rich environment - and we will soon find out what Iran has up their sleeve.

 

But Iran is certainly not to be trusted.

You can’t negotiate with terrorists. That’s why this half baked plan is on the verge of dragging the US into a forever war and permanently altering the SOH. There is going to be negative longterm consequences for the US and allied nations. I think you’re underestimating the damage this approach could create if the needle is not threaded. Iran and the regime have assets in other parts of the world. The issues with terrorism is small acts can create big problems. Hence the equation learned over 20 years in the Middle East was 1 dead terrorist = 2 new terrorists. 
 

Let’s also not forget that this is a completely unconstitutional war. And as of today is sounds like Trump is going to have to ask Congress for a whole bunch of money. 

[Gregmal]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Each war has a military angle as well as a political one. To win, you have to win politically by achieving your goals because you can absolutely win a war dominating militarily but lose politically. A prime example was Vietnam where the US dominated militarily and won every single battle but lost the war, because it became clear that the political goals could not get achieved in any reasonable timeframe and with acceptable cost.

I think this is why Trump has kept his goals intentionally vague. That way, he can use whatever results he gets and claim victory of sorts.

This is definitely true. And probably also reasonable given probably 40% of the country is rooting for our enemies to satisfy imaginary personal vendettas. 

[cubsfan]

37 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think this is why Trump has kept his goals intentionally vague. 

 

You're correct that 100% tactical success does not equal strategic victory.

 

But you missed the part where he's been crystal clear on US Objectives for the war:

 

1- Destroy Iran's ability to launch missiles 

2-Destroy Iran's Air Force & Air Defense & gain Air Supremacy.

3-Destroy Iran's Navy (almost done)

4-Destroy Iran's nuclear sites (done)

5-Destroy Iran's weapons manufacturing capabilities. (almost done)

 

Those are the stated Objectives by Trump.

All with the exception of #1 are basically done. 

In addition to #4, several nuclear scientists and research centers have been killed/destroyed. Looks like they are set back 10 years to me. Also, with #2, the US now has the option to use A-10's and Apache's to roam freely around Iran. That's a huge deal.

 

Iran's only hope is to outlast the next 2 1/2 years of the Trump Presidency, but then they have Israel to contend with.

 

Who knows, maybe Iran will get lucky and a Democrat will be re-elected in 2028 and fund their nuclear weapons program again.  Definitely a possibility if the surviving leaders live that long.

Edited March 24 by cubsfan

[ourkid8]

14 minutes ago, Castanza said:

You can’t negotiate with terrorists. 

 
Thats precisely why Iran refuses to negotiate directly with US. They have tried twice and in both occasions were attacked during the negotiations. 
 

Attacking a country while actively engaged in diplomatic negotiations violates several foundational principles of international law, primarily concerning the prohibition of the use of force, the obligation to settle disputes peacefully, and the requirement of acting in good faith. 

[cubsfan]

16 minutes ago, Castanza said:

You can’t negotiate with terrorists. That’s why this half baked plan is on the verge of dragging the US into a forever war and permanently altering the SOH. There is going to be negative longterm consequences for the US and allied nations. I think you’re underestimating the damage this approach could create if the needle is not threaded. Iran and the regime have assets in other parts of the world. The issues with terrorism is small acts can create big problems. Hence the equation learned over 20 years in the Middle East was 1 dead terrorist = 2 new terrorists. 
 

Let’s also not forget that this is a completely unconstitutional war. And as of today is sounds like Trump is going to have to ask Congress for a whole bunch of money. 

 

We agree. Iran can't be trusted. That's why they are being destroyed. They get 5 days to make a deal and when they don't honor it - it's back to killing leaders and hitting targets.

 

Iran is fighting mad right now - and they are powerless to hurt the USA. All they have is terrorism to fight back with.

 

Of course this war is risky. It may cost Trump the midterms.  But Iran comes out of this completely nuetered, with hundreds of terrorist leaders dead.

[ourkid8]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

But you missed the part where he's been crystal clear on US Objectives for the war:

 

1- Destroy Iran's ability to launch missiles 

2-Destroy Iran's Air Force & Air Defense & gain Air Supremacy.

3-Destroy Iran's Navy (almost done)

4-Destroy Iran's nuclear sites (done)

5-Destroy Iran's weapons manufacturing capabilities. (almost done)

The ONLY objective for US/Israel is regime change. - that’s all.  Anything less is a total failure. US is losing and how you don’t see it is beyond me. 
 

Have you noticed US / NATO quietly repositioning out of Iraq?  
 

Iran with its new toll income stream and with potential reduced sanctions will come out of this situation stronger than ever! (as Viking would call it the New Iran - thanks to Trump) 

Edited March 24 by ourkid8

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

This is definitely true. And probably also reasonable given probably 40% of the country is rooting for our enemies to satisfy imaginary personal vendettas. 

What a generalization!!  Who is rooting for our enemies??  Let alone 40% of the population?

 

Just because Trump is incompetent and stupid doesn't mean people want Iran to win. 

[cubsfan]

Just now, ourkid8 said:

The ONLY objective for US/Israel is regime change. - that’s all.  Anything less is a total failure. US is losing and how you don’t see it is beyond me. 
 

Have you noticed US / NATO quietly repositioning out of Iraq?  
 

Iran with its new toll income stream and with potential reduced sanctions will come out of this situation stronger than ever! 

 

Regime change is definitely the best outcome, but certainly the most difficult outcome. 

 

The US, having accomplished most of it's objectives is in the drivers seat - and the whole world is better off, except for the deceased regime members.

 

Iran is in no position to dictate terms.

[ourkid8]

44 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

We agree. Iran can't be trusted. That's why they are being destroyed. They get 5 days to make a deal and when they don't honor it - it's back to killing leaders and hitting targets.

 

Iran is fighting mad right now - and they are powerless to hurt the USA. All they have is terrorism to fight back with.

 

Of course this war is risky. It may cost Trump the midterms.  But Iran comes out of this completely nuetered, with hundreds of terrorist leaders dead.

Trump initially gave Iran a 48 hours ultimatum to open the straight of Hormuz or they will obliterate their power plants. Iran politely declined.  That’s someone in a position of control  

 

“Attacking power plants may constitute a war crime, particularly if the attack is indiscriminate, targets purely civilian infrastructure, or causes disproportionate harm to the civilian population relative to the military advantage gained”

[ourkid8]

39 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Iran is in no position to dictate terms.

Watch them do it! -Are you down for a bet?  $100 and openly admitting on this board you were wrong and Iran won?   ( I will do the same if Iran loses). The terms are who wins against each countries stated objectives. 
 

@Parsad I hope I am not breaking any terms of this board with the bet! 

Edited March 24 by ourkid8

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

I think that when the Treasury market finally goes, we're going to witness the worst credit crisis in human history. A lot of it is dependent on faith. Faith can be easily lost.

 

When the laws and nature of money finally make themselves known, there will be no more room for delusion. It'll all be washed away as if they were a flood.

 

You are wasting your time on this stuff!  You can be defensive and prepared without prepping your portfolio for the apocalypse.  No different than gold or bitcoin investors thinking all currency is fiat currency and they are better off with those assets long-term.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, Viking said:

@Parsad, you are assuming Trump, the Israeli’s and Iran are rational actors. I hope you are right and the worst is behind us.

 

Below is what Iran wants. They have been very public in stating their aims. They have maximum leverage right now. Why would they give that up? Especially given everyone knows that Trump can’t be trusted to actually honour any potential deal (even his allies know this). It really is a crazy situation. 
 

I think there is a decent chance that Iran will ask for more than Trump/Israeli’s are willing to give. In that case, Iran would continue to block the straight and the war would have to continue.

 

Financial markets are basically saying this war is over. 
 

Core Iranian Demands to End the Conflict

 

1) Immediate cessation of attacks (non-negotiable starting point)

• Iran consistently says the first prerequisite is that the U.S. and Israel stop all military operations
• This is framed as: “we did not start this war” → therefore the aggressor must stop first

2) Guarantees against future attacks

• Iran wants binding, enforceable guarantees that strikes will not resume 

They are explicitly rejecting:

• Temporary ceasefires
• “pause and resume” arrangements

This is about regime security, not just tactical de-escalation.

 

3) Compensation / reparations

• Tehran is demanding financial compensation for war damage

Some reports go further:

• Full reparations from the U.S. and Israel
• This is both economic and symbolic (accountability).

4) Withdrawal / rollback of U.S. presence in the region

• Iran has called for a U.S. withdrawal from the Gulf / regional military footprint

This ties into a broader strategic goal:

• Reducing U.S. deterrence capability near Iran

5) Recognition of Iran’s rights and status

 

Includes:

• Recognition of Iran’s “legitimate rights” (often interpreted as sovereignty + nuclear rights) 

This is ideological:

• Iran wants political legitimacy, not just a ceasefire

6) Punishment or accountability for “aggressors”

• Senior Iranian officials are demanding justice/punishment for those who initiated attacks

This makes negotiations difficult because:

• It directly conflicts with U.S./Israeli positions

 

I'm all about simplifying the analytical process.  Overthinking human psychology or market behavior often leads to affirmation of a set of beliefs or analysis paralysis...see Blake! 

 

I buy when I see things getting cheaper to intrinsic value...it's as simple as that.  I have no idea what Trump or Iran will do...nor do I care other than for personal/ethical reasons.  

 

If things get worse, I sell more expensive stocks to buy even cheaper stocks.  Works like a charm for over 25 years now, through the tech bubble, GFC, Pandemic and probably this so-called AI bubble and Iran War.  

 

I will rarely get the bottom and will probably sell well before the top...that's ok.  I cover that middle ground very nicely like a mid-fielder...Trump and Iran will never come into the equation...their actions just gave me the opportunity!  Cheers!

[Castanza]

6 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

You are wasting your time on this stuff!  You can be defensive and prepared without prepping your portfolio for the apocalypse.  No different than gold or bitcoin investors thinking all currency is fiat currency and they are better off with those assets long-term.  Cheers!

Boggles my mind…

@Blake Hampton

What’s the end result? You own t-Bills in a worthless currency. You own a piece of real estate that you can’t afford the taxes on (bye bye), but hey you own shares of OXY…you planning to take physical delivery of oil? 

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

According to the Trumpers:

• Buffett is wrong.

• Watsa is wrong.

• Dimon is wrong.

• Dalio is wrong.

• Druckenmiller, the very man who mentored Warsh and worked alongside Bessent, is wrong.

• The WSJ, FT, NYT, and The Economist are all fake news.

• Cash is trash, yet worrying about inflation is supposedly "stupid."

Delusion.

 

Blake, I don't know how many times I've said this, but all of those guys (other than the media) run leveraged financial institutions...where they may have difficulty raising capital through debt/equity financing.  For some, their company stock trades in the open market that could be susceptible to wide swings.  Depending on the type of business they run, they are also exposed to correlated risk, funding by the Treasury/Fed, investor redemptions, etc.  You have none of these challenges in your private portfolio...it's not even apples to oranges...it's like an electron compared to Jupiter!  Cheers!

[Blake Hampton]

18 minutes ago, Parsad said:

You are wasting your time on this stuff!  You can be defensive and prepared without prepping your portfolio for the apocalypse.  No different than gold or bitcoin investors thinking all currency is fiat currency and they are better off with those assets long-term.  Cheers!

 

4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Blake, I don't know how many times I've said this, but all of those guys (other than the media) run leveraged financial institutions...where they may have difficulty raising capital through debt/equity financing.  For some, their company stock trades in the open market that could be susceptible to wide swings.  Depending on the type of business they run, they are also exposed to correlated risk, funding by the Treasury/Fed, investor redemptions, etc.  You have none of these challenges in your private portfolio...it's not even apples to oranges...it's like an electron compared to Jupiter!  Cheers!

 

You're right on a lot of this. I do probably spend too much time lingering on macro. My position is far different than the financial titans that I pull ideas from.

 

But these problems are reality-defining. The value of currency, no less the world's reserve currency, is of such immense importance it's almost incomprehensible. Buffett is warning of runaway inflation. Think about that. Think about what a world of runaway inflation in the USD would actually look like.

And we have never lived in a world as leveraged as the one we do now. Never before has humanity existed with so many people dependent on a stable, functioning global financial system.

 

If you aren't considering this reality in your investments, or even in how you're structuring your life, I believe it's very likely you'll be left behind. I believe this is especially true of someone my age.

 

As Ray Dalio writes in the final chapter of How Countries Go Broke:

 

"I am confident that the next 5-10 years will be a period of enormous changes in all the major orders, and that going from now until then will feel like going through a time warp into a very different reality. Many countries, companies, and people who are now up will be done, and those who are down will be up. How we think and what we do will be very different, in ways that we can't possibly anticipate."

I couldn't agree more. I believe it will likely feel like the end of the world for many people.

Still, I have incredible faith in humanity. I spent a good amount of time reading Holocaust memoirs. Books like Man's Search for Meaning, Night, If This Is a Man, books that fundamentally changed me as a person. They gave me a lot of perspective on what I think it means to be strong. These books tell stories of human beings surviving some of the worst atrocities imaginable.

 

Humans will prevail. But that doesn't mean we're exempt from hard times. History is replete with periods of terrible suffering. We may very well face our own.

[Blake Hampton]

If the government had stood pat in 2008, I believe we would've experienced a depression beyond what many thought was possible.

 

A U.S. sovereign debt crisis will be far worse than 2008. There is no backstop for when your government fails.

 

Edited March 24 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

I want to be clear, I'm not calling for some apocalypse. I believe that many of these systems we've created almost have to continue functioning for humanity to exist at the scale we currently do. I don't think there's any proper way to hedge for a true "end of the world."

 

But that does not guarantee that the system must continue operating like it has in the past. Things will have to change at some point. And I believe it's quite likely they'll have to change in extreme ways.

[Parsad]

17 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

If the government had stood pat in 2008, I believe we would've experienced a depression beyond what many thought was possible.

 

A U.S. sovereign debt crisis will be far worse than 2008. There is no backstop for when your government fails.

 

 

That is probably true.  But it didn't happen and if you didn't invest, you missed the best investment opportunity of a generation...until the Pandemic...where people froze again.  Even Fairfax didn't take advantage of that time because their shorts hurt any long positions they took.  Fairfax had a macro view...not necessarily wrong...just didn't come to fruition.  Analysis paralysis!  But they took advantage of the Pandemic and bond market thereafter...look at the results!

 

Also, in Buffett and Prem's case, they can buy private businesses at non-market prices.  They can grow their insurance premium volume when macro is suspect.  They already have huge businesses generating more cash than they can invest, so their assets are growing regardless...at a rate far higher than 2-3%.  You cannot afford that...your portfolio will be worth less over a long period of time.  You will actually make yourself poorer...not wealthier!  

 

I'm telling you this as someone who has been investing for nearly 30 years...who has read everything on Buffett, ACTUALLY knows Prem for nearly 25 years and doesn't just quote him, have made myself very comfortable from their lessons, have paid attention to macro but never let it stop me from finding assets at cheap prices...I'm trying to relate to you that macro-based, defensive portfolio management is not what you are doing if you will not buy cheap assets when they are available.

 

Yes, at times they will be readily available...at times more difficult to find.  But something always pops up every year.  And once in a while...probably every 10-20 years...there will be a drop of 20-50% and the flood gates will open.  But knowing when, where, how and why...nearly impossible!  Cheers!