Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

7 hours ago, Xerxes said:

... As an Iranian-born Canadian, ...

 

@Xerxes,

 

Well, it just took me six years to figure out the reason how it is you are so well wandered about history and all other matters related to that part of the world. I'm a slow catcher, but I can be really stubborn, hanging on, when it matters! 

[John Hjorth]

7 hours ago, ValueNation said:

Thanks for this take. It seems to be the most clear-eyed analysis I've seen.

 

+1! - And a really depressing read, @Xerxes.

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, UK said:

 

Thanks! Given your knowledge, would you have advised POTUS doing all this?

 

What I wrote is a view frozen in time about 10 days in. That view six months from now can look very different. Much better or worse.

 

The negotiations were sham, and both sides knew it. The gap was too wide. They were never going to dismantle their ballistic program. 
 

It is just that when I hear how the reprisal against Gulf and Hormuz came as a surprise, that is not an encouraging sign. Wasn’t that obvious … what do you think it was going to happen. 

 

Yet i remain optimistic. As there is a lot we don’t know. 
 

 

[Xerxes]

48 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Xerxes,

 

Well, it just took me six years to figure out the reason how it is you are so well wandered about history and all other matters related to that part of the world. I'm a slow catcher, but I can be really stubborn, hanging on, when it matters! 

lol 

 

 

[73 Reds]

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well Trump is the most proliferate name caller of all politicians. Nobody comes even close.

Agreed.

[73 Reds]

14 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

That's the investing part. My model for building wealth is earning, then saving, and finally investing. It's a flow. The first two steps of that model are quite important right now since I'm young. My fiance and I both make pretty good money, work quite a bit, and we save a TON.

Blake, that is a sensible approach.  But it is important to recognize that the investing part is what will make the largest difference in the long run.

[73 Reds]

14 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

I would like to know how often people in this forum put half of their total assets in one position. That's conviction. I've come to the conclusion that investors who are serious about outperforming normally have about five positions max. That's a WAY different game than buying stocks off a whim.

 

And putting 50% in a position is almost nothing when you have say only $10,000. The time needed to make up such a measly sum is almost nothing. I guess the value attached to a certain amount of money is relative to how rich you already are. Of course $100,000 is nothing when your net worth is already $100 million. But it does seem like there's a certain point where sums start getting pretty serious. Maybe it has to do with how much it would mean to the average person. When you start getting to those numbers, deciding to put 50% of TA in one position is stuff that requires big nuts.

 

Once I made nearly every investing mistake in the book, I did - twice.  Once in Berkshire, the other in my own businesses.  Both worked very well.

[73 Reds]

12 hours ago, dealraker said:

You can easily find multiple quotes long ago from Trump as to his casino endeavors as being "success."  And yes the touch (torch would be a better term) and go ranting "its fixed" has left a bunch of failure residue never mentioned --- he repeatedly carried the media somewhere else with better selling drama. But let's see how we pretend past this one.

 

My view is that Trump runs away from issues with incredible skill, the media is his personal chauffeur.  But increasingly he will need massive upside drama, the ante-up needs jet fuel...or else the media, maybe even Fox, seeks to gain control of the narrative.

And despite all his faults, Trump is one of the most successful Americans in history.  Reconcile that.

[Gregmal]

48 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

As there is a lot we don’t know.

IDK man, theres an awful lot of experts and know it alls talking the walk right now. Including here, re: forever wars, and what really went on behind the scenes, and who got played, whats really really unfolding, etc. 

 

Two cents from the cheap seats is that Iran has bombed enough of the ME that they've got few friends there willing to lend a hand...China sends thoughts and prayers, as does Russia, although Russia is OK selling us their oil which negates some of the Iran energy leverage....and oh yea, everyone wants the SOH open, so put all this, and the fact that this was an unnecessary and arguably unpopular move for Trump ahead of mid terms.....think that skews things towards a favorable and shorter term issue. 

[SharperDingaan]

58 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

What I wrote is a view frozen in time about 10 days in. That view six months from now can look very different. Much better or worse.

 

The negotiations were sham, and both sides knew it. The gap was too wide. They were never going to dismantle their ballistic program. 
 

It is just that when I hear how the reprisal against Gulf and Hormuz came as a surprise, that is not an encouraging sign. Wasn’t that obvious … what do you think it was going to happen. 

 

Yet i remain optimistic. As there is a lot we don’t know. 

 

 

Congratulations on getting out.

 

SD

 

[John Hjorth]

5 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Congratulations on getting out.

 

SD

 

+1!, @Xerxes!

[Xerxes]

17 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

IDK man, theres an awful lot of experts and know it alls talking the walk right now. Including here, re: forever wars, and what really went on behind the scenes, and who got played, whats really really unfolding, etc. 

 

Two cents from the cheap seats is that Iran has bombed enough of the ME that they've got few friends there willing to lend a hand...China sends thoughts and prayers, as does Russia, although Russia is OK selling us their oil which negates some of the Iran energy leverage....and oh yea, everyone wants the SOH open, so put all this, and the fact that this was an unnecessary and arguably unpopular move for Trump ahead of mid terms.....think that skews things towards a favorable and shorter term issue. 

Regime focus was on self preservation. They were willing to burn any and all bridges. I think I heard somewhere that more missile were hurled against UAE than Israel. 

One thing for sure, the regime in however shape and form it survives has to reform.

 

We are not asking for the moon here. We are just asking them to focus on their national interest and that of the people …. as opposed to a 1979 bygone revolutionary era. 
 

I also don’t see a protracted war. To me IRGC may be hiding behind the revolutionary zeal and of a forever war, but again the logic of self preservation would throttle them back.  
 

I guess we just have to wait and see 

 

[Xerxes]

25 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Congratulations on getting out.

 

SD

 

lol. I left Iran decades ago, in the 90s

 

i am a full blown French Canadian (but speaking mostly in English) now 

 

 

[dealraker]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

And despite all his faults, Trump is one of the most successful Americans in history.  Reconcile that.

And despite his faults, Trump is one of the most unsuccessful Americans in history.  Reconcile that.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, dealraker said:

And despite his faults, Trump is one of the most unsuccessful Americans in history.  Reconcile that.

Sounds autistic to me.

[dealraker]

4 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Sounds autistic to me.

Yes the above sounds quite autistic.

 

For a lawyer Reds?  You can do far better than this...surely.

[73 Reds]

Just now, dealraker said:

Yes the above sounds quite autistic.

 

For a lawyer Reds?  You can do far better than this...surely.

And there are far less successful people than Trump to fixate on.  Unless, of course its just jealousy.

[dwy000]

11 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

And there are far less successful people than Trump to fixate on.  Unless, of course its just jealousy.

Or the fact that he is the President of the United States and not some TV host (oops, bad example)

[dealraker]

11 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Or the fact that he is the President of the United States and not some TV host (oops, bad example)

Just think Reds, by 1934 Germany and Japan were getting together and orchestrating the spying as related to the eventual 1942 Pearl Harbor bombing.  With Trump?  We have mood-of-the-day decisions, he and only he knows while all the rest of the world just participates in his bubble. 

 

You celebrate each move.  I just marvel...not at the biased views of the outcomes, but at those that love each and every one of the moves from a man that they think is the anointed one.

 

The man is a fucking GD idiot.

Edited March 13 by dealraker

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

lol. I left Iran decades ago, in the 90s

 

i am a full blown French Canadian (but speaking mostly in English) now 

 

 

 

Nothing wrong with keeping limbs intact, and a clear head  Also very useful being able to operate in both environments.

 

Warlords change but regimes have a habit of successful adaption to changing times. When the wealth is in the ground, via agriculture or distribution; it isn't possible to get it out, without paying a protection fee that also extends to the ports. One can disrupt, and maybe live long enough to benefit ...... but it isn't going away 

 

A year out ... it probably looks very much like it looks like today; just higher prices and different faces.

 

SD

 

Edited March 13 by SharperDingaan

[73 Reds]

13 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Just think Reds, by 1934 Germany and Japan were getting together and orchestrating the spying as related to the eventual 1942 Pearl Harbor bombing.  With Trump?  We have mood-of-the-day decisions, he and only he knows while all the rest of the world just participates in his bubble. 

 

You celebrate each move.  I just marvel...not at the biased views of the outcomes, but at those that love each and every one of the moves from a man that they think is the anointed one.

 

The man is a fucking GD idiot.

May I offer some friendly advice?  Disconnect for a day or two.  It might help improve your mood.

[SharperDingaan]

35 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

And there are far less successful people than Trump to fixate on.  Unless, of course its just jealousy.

 

Nah .... those less successful people just recognise that Orange Boy is worth more dead than alive; he's the better and bigger target, and they will be beneficiaries of the vacuum his departure creates. Professional courtesy 

 

SD

[73 Reds]

Just now, SharperDingaan said:

 

Nah .... those less successful people just recognise that Orange Boy is worth more dead than alive; he's the better and bigger target, and they will be beneficiaries of the vacuum his departure creates. Professional courtesy 

 

SD

I think jeolousy weighs in a lot.  He's got everything they don't:  Power, money, influence - many of the signs most people attribute to "success".  And for now he is calling the shots and they have to take them.  Reality sucks sometimes.  

[dealraker]

27 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

May I offer some friendly advice?  Disconnect for a day or two.  It might help improve your mood.

Reds, I am sitting on a log at The Ridge Cycle Hub laughing with two co workers, both about my age.  We are trail workers and building an addition on the mountain bike trail we began here not long ago.  We have ten miles.  For the most part I run the Cat skid steer...but I get off and chop roots and help place rock amouring in the low places for erosion control.

 

And I'm laughing and discussing what I am sending you with them.  I have never-ever in my life associated with anyone less aware of himself than you Reds. 

 

I'll be riding 10 miles with my co-workers shortly.  They both use e-bikes while ole dealraker is on the analog version - me...the only source of power.

 

Life is great Red.  Trump is a fucking GD idiot regardless.  The dumbest child in the class?  That's our Pres!

 

 

 

 

[Mephistopheles]

11 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Here is my take after +1 week of this shit show. As an Iranian-born Canadian, me and countless others were grateful on the fall of a tyrant. But we also know and understand better, that is not that simple. 

- Khameni is now replaced with Khameni  (a younger version)

- Regime is wounded; but also more dangerous than ever before 

- Despite the theatrics of an “Islamic” republic, don’t be fooled, this is going to be a military dictatorship going forward - Office of Supreme Leader will be there to give IRGC legitimacy

- Mojtaba will never be as powerful as his father. Power dynamic has shifted
- Saudi Vision 2030 is gone. It is now Saudi Vision 2040. Ops. 
- The illusion of safety that UAE try to cultivate and build over decades has now fallen over 10 days 

 

 

Losers 

 

- Iranian people. Stuck between having their infrastructure destroyed by IDF and Americans, and a regime that even now is sharpening its sword to go after them once the war is over. 

- Regime in Tehran favouring the status quo. They died clenching their fist. 

 

- Trump. Even John Bolton, the mega Iran hawk, has enough sense to criticize Trump for a half baked plan. 
 

- Gulf states. As said earlier, that entire vision for Gulf centred around trade, tourism has gone in smoke. 
 

- The Office of Supreme Leader. It will never regain its power over IRGC. 
 

- Ukraine; from what I understand the Gulf state fired hundreds of Patriot in the first few days; more than Ukraine was ever able to buy in the entire war. Also there are report of dwindling supplies of all kinds of munitions from late last year, as Pentagon priorities its own build up over Ukraine needs. 

 

- China; yet one more KPI how sophisticated Western military prowess and doctrine is and how purge-ridden PLA may not be … yet. 
 

- Customers of Qatari LNG. From what I understand those plants once shutdown will take 3-4 week to power back up. With crude, at least that huge surplus built inside the Persian Gulf can Ben tapped once the crisis over. 

 

 

 

Winners:

 

- Bibi; he did the impossible. Was able to fully pull U.S. into the war. 
 

- Israeli State; as it will not have to bear the cost and will have all the upside. The geopolitical cost will be amortized and carried by the Gulf nations and U.S.

 

- Kremlin; sanction relief on crude, Patriots pull into the Middle East, etc. they weren’t planning for this. Seems 2026 is their lucky year. They are drinking vodka straight from the bottle this weekend, as the saying goes. 

 

- U.S. defense contractors. Only if they could expand capacity. 
 

- The lower and mid echelon of IRGC, with the old guard either dead or moving out, it is their time to feast. 
 

- War porn on YouTube and message boards. It is a bull market for self-declared analysts. I mean who would have thought to see 20 million barrel of crude not flowing through Arrakis. 
 

- sadly the regime in Iran may also be a winner by not losing and demonstrating how far they are willing to go. 
 

 

 

 

 

I agree with all of this. I think the harm to the Gulf states isn't talked about enough, to your point the evaporation of tourism and Dubai in particular being a major trade/business center and getaway for the wealthy.

 

The IRGC doesn't have a central command right? Their goal is to disrupt the West, not do what's best for their people of course. My concern is: what kind of ceasefire deal would be palatable to the Gulf? And why would Iran even make a deal when they don't mind sacrificing their own people, and where there is no central authority? Trump will likely declare victory and leave. Israel will be satisfied at significantly diminishing the regime.

 

But for the Arab Gulf states, nothing short of complete defeat of the IRGC would bring back wealthy foreigners IMO. Why would anyone travel to Dubai, even after a ceasefire, if the IRGC is still in charge? May take years of no conflict/violence for people to return.

 

So now the Arabs will need the U.S. to provide ground troops. Nothing short of a major terror attack will make this politically possible in the U.S. 

 

Scary world.

Edited March 13 by Mephistopheles