Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

30 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

35% now on Canada as well from August 1st.  It's actually pushing those countries to do more business with China, among others, rather than do more business with the U.S.  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-puts-35-tariff-canada-003831560.html

 

 

Does anyone have an idea why?

 

Brazil got dinged because he want to help out his buddy Bolsanero. Brazil imports more from the US than they export, so I don’t think this is going to work.

[dwy000]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Does anyone have an idea why?

 

Brazil got dinged because he want to help out his buddy Bolsanero. Brazil imports more from the US than they export, so I don’t think this is going to work.

Maybe to distract from the Epstein news. 

[Parsad]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Does anyone have an idea why?

 

Brazil got dinged because he want to help out his buddy Bolsanero. Brazil imports more from the US than they export, so I don’t think this is going to work.

 

 

He's trying to get them all to speed up the deal making process.  They've had little to announce.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

28 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Maybe to distract from the Epstein news. 

 

Could be as well!  This administration not only likes the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), but to move on to another subject when there is one brewing they don't want to talk about...TABOOS (Trump Always Breaks Out Other Stories).  Cheers!

[whiskybravo]

Watch how the tariffs on these countries being mentioned come tumbling down when they move to decouple from China.  Their economic prosperity and security are also harmed by China’s economic strategy.  They need the American market.  Trump has the leverage.  

Edited July 11, 2025 by whiskybravo

[whiskybravo]

The June report from the labor department stated that since the beginning of Trump’s second term, there have been 2.1M native-born jobs added and a drop of 543k foreign-born jobs.  Kind of dispels the talking point about Americans not wanting to do the jobs being done by migrants.  Employers are just going to have to raise wages.  Win for the working class.

[dwy000]

43 minutes ago, whiskybravo said:

The June report from the labor department stated that since the beginning of Trump’s second term, there have been 2.1M native-born jobs added and a drop of 543k foreign-born jobs.  Kind of dispels the talking point about Americans not wanting to do the jobs being done by migrants.  Employers are just going to have to raise wages.  Win for the working class.

What is a native born job vs a foreign born job?  Does Apple hiring an engineer count as a foreign born or native born?  What about a person working at mcdonalds?

[Parsad]

TACO...TACO?  Cheers!

 

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6827668

[whiskybravo]

6 hours ago, dwy000 said:

What is a native born job vs a foreign born job?  Does Apple hiring an engineer count as a foreign born or native born?  What about a person working at mcdonalds?

Born in US, PR, US territories, or abroad to American parents vs not born in US such as naturalized citizens, green card holders, temporary visa holders, refugees, and undocumented immigrants.

[Spekulatius]

Deal or no deal with Vietnam? Nobody knows…

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/10/vietnam-trump-tariff-deal-00447715

[dealraker]

No matter what Mr. Market's do next week, month, or even year...I expect to see 20-25% down from today's quotes within Trump's reign.  I am looking forward to the political commentary at that point.

 

Not that it affects the way I'm invested, I simply think most political posts are greatly affected by recent stock price movements - far more than knowing or even guessing - or even caring about - outcomes of major policy jolts.

[dwy000]

3 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

Born in US, PR, US territories, or abroad to American parents vs not born in US such as naturalized citizens, green card holders, temporary visa holders, refugees, and undocumented immigrants.

Thats what the person is but jobs aren't defined that way.  Jobs are jobs.  Apple hires an engineer born in Lithuania, is that a foreign job?  McDonalds hires a fry cook born in Kentucky, is that a domestic job?

Edited July 11, 2025 by dwy000

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

No matter what Mr. Market's do next week, month, or even year...I expect to see 20-25% down from today's quotes within Trump's reign.  I am looking forward to the political commentary at that point.

 

Not that it affects the way I'm invested, I simply think most political posts are greatly affected by recent stock price movements - far more than knowing or even guessing - or even caring about - outcomes of major policy jolts.

I tend to agree with this although may be slightly more optimistic (down 10-15%).  A lot will depend upon where tariffs end up but you simply cannot add this level of taxes, deficit and, most importantly, uncertainty without repercussions.   And I'm more concerned about longer term damage from our best trading partners all actively lowering trade barriers and seeking to increase trade away from the US.  That generally doesnt come back.

Edited July 11, 2025 by dwy000

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

No matter what Mr. Market's do next week, month, or even year...I expect to see 20-25% down from today's quotes within Trump's reign.  I am looking forward to the political commentary at that point.

 

Not that it affects the way I'm invested, I simply think most political posts are greatly affected by recent stock price movements - far more than knowing or even guessing - or even caring about - outcomes of major policy jolts.

Sure, but any time broad markets are all at all time highs wouldn't one expect to see a bear market within the next 3-4 years?  Like you, has no effect on the way I invest.

[whiskybravo]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

Thats what the person is but jobs aren't defined that way.  Jobs are jobs.  Apple hires an engineer born in Lithuania, is that a foreign job?  McDonalds hires a fry cook born in Kentucky, is that a domestic job?

All jobs are American.  Workers defined based on nativity.

Edited July 11, 2025 by whiskybravo

[Milu]

30 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Sure, but any time broad markets are all at all time highs wouldn't one expect to see a bear market within the next 3-4 years?  Like you, has no effect on the way I invest.

Ya I'd be more surprised if the market didn't pull back 20-25% in any president's reign. 

Edited July 11, 2025 by Milu

[cubsfan]

13 hours ago, TB said:

I think it is only for stuff that is not covered by USCMA. It has provision for rules of origin which probably wasn't enforced before. A large percentage of the trade between the US and Canada is covered by USCMA - could be 95% or higher

 

Here is a report about how the President makes decisions, it is not conventional. 

 

 

 

 

Excellent analysis- thanks

[dealraker]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Sure, but any time broad markets are all at all time highs wouldn't one expect to see a bear market within the next 3-4 years?  Like you, has no effect on the way I invest.

I had you in mind Reds posting this LOL...just checking your Trump defense (lawyer style) pulse.  It's still strong!

 

Being silly.  Have a good day.

[dealraker]

2 hours ago, dwy000 said:

I tend to agree with this although may be slightly more optimistic (down 10-15%).  A lot will depend upon where tariffs end up but you simply cannot add this level of taxes, deficit and, most importantly, uncertainty without repercussions.   And I'm more concerned about longer term damage from our best trading partners all actively lowering trade barriers and seeking to increase trade away from the US.  That generally doesnt come back.

I think the political commentary on COBF will change during Trump's tenure and won't ever 'get back' to the level of support it is or was at some point.  

[changegonnacome]

13 hours ago, Parsad said:

35% now on Canada as well from August 1st. 

 

when I look at the US's top 8 trading partners that kind of really matter....more or less all of them are headed to ~10%..in reality lower due to carve outs but higher for China & China derivative trade proxies who get hit with higher.......think Trump needs a few more 'tough' headlines like with Canada or the EU such that he feels he hasnt climbed down completely from all the Liberation Day bravado.....the last few months will turn out to be an hilariously chaotic period in international trade when a lot of ink was spilled and not much changed in terms of American domestic manufacturing and access to foreign markets......which could have been avoided if Trump had simply slapped a flat 10% on all imports and called it what it is - a federal sales tax falling most heavily on the bottom 20%of American's designed to help fund tax cuts for the top 20% of Americans.

 

American workers will continue to turn their noses up at manufacturing jobs in favor of service economy jobs - as they have done so for decades now - maybe AI will lay waste to so many of those jobs that the trend will reverse....those that do enjoy working with their hands in a manufacturing setting will enjoy good real wage growth which will only incentivize other lower end manufacturing to move offshore.

 

You can't help but see Trump as an 80yr old man waste deep in the ocean trying to fight back the waves of globalization & advanced economy de-industrialization. I hope he succeeds in those areas with direct national security implications but already IMO he's kind of run out of time with no real clarity yet on so much of US trade flows and the President is now headed towards a full year in office, the BBB done, mid-terms next year with a likely flip to democrats and the long lead time associated with so much of the on-shoring investments he dreams off and no heir apparent to the MAGA movement because Trump is too narcissistic to allow one.....a pharma executive, a chip executive will start to model much of this Trump tariff stuff as a anomaly....they may hedge a bit with investments....but I can assure you they are not moving all their chips into the middle of the table and betting on "Trump World" to continue beyond 2029.

 

[73 Reds]

40 minutes ago, dealraker said:

I had you in mind Reds posting this LOL...just checking your Trump defense (lawyer style) pulse.  It's still strong!

 

Being silly.  Have a good day.

That's all right.  Recently returned from a rather extended stay in the UK.  Interesting that no one (not one individual) I personally met mentioned anything about Trump.  The trip included many evenings interacting with locals and visitors in local pubs and restaurants, as well as various inns and hotels.  My conclusion:  Life goes on for most folks without regard to politics.  If that is what you mean by a "Trump defense" it seems like a good one.

[Buckeye]

15 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

The June report from the labor department stated that since the beginning of Trump’s second term, there have been 2.1M native-born jobs added and a drop of 543k foreign-born jobs.  Kind of dispels the talking point about Americans not wanting to do the jobs being done by migrants.  Employers are just going to have to raise wages.  Win for the working class.

Wait, we are now supposed to believe the jobs report?!? I thought we’ve been told for the last four years how those numbers are all fake.

[changegonnacome]

4 hours ago, dwy000 said:

deficit and, most importantly, uncertainty without repercussions.

 

The immediate repercussions of borrowing ever more money....as anybody who's gone to town on their credit card knows.....is a mighty good time....I think a mighty good time could continue for a while more who knows a year or two......before the CC bill drops into the letter box and ruins the party! When your the reserve currency the 'due date' has a TBD written in it so enormous flexibility.....we are for sure closer to the end game than the beginning but I've no idea when it starts to matter.....for the now equity holders in the United States have been handed at the very high end an additional $32,000 a year to invest in equities/real estate.....its a wonderful stimulus to financial assets

[whiskybravo]

7 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Wait, we are now supposed to believe the jobs report?!? I thought we’ve been told for the last four years how those numbers are all fake.

Good point, Trump is a scoundrel.  If his policies work for the good of the country will you welcome that?  Perhaps more importantly to you and I, Sayin vs Keinholz?  Red shirt St. Clair?

[Malmqky]

I think 99.9% of Americans and everyone on this board hope Trump betters America and is right on these issues and his approach to fixing them.

 

Im just skeptical and don’t particularly like the guy, doesn’t mean I don’t want him to “succeed” and this country to prosper. I think Buckeye would fall in the same camp.