Political Posts

[cubsfan]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

The people of Crimea &  Donbas aren't live stock, available for trade, or available as leverage.

 

Please think about what the United States of America has in its backpack in that regard.

 

[And now I'll stop with this argument.]

 

@John Hjorth  No problem John. I just think this is how it's going to end. Crimea is full of Russian speakers and provides a seaport for Putin. Somehow, Ukraine needs to rip all that away from Russia, which I don't believe is possible. Do both countries have the appetite to see another 1M in casualties??

 

I think that is going to be the key question both combatants need to ask each other.

 

I will be very happy to be wrong.

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

@John Hjorth  No problem John. I just think this is how it's going to end. Crimea is full of Russian speakers and provides a seaport for Putin. Somehow, Ukraine needs to rip all that away from Russia, which I don't believe is possible. Do both countries have the appetite to see another 1M in casualties??

 

I think that is going to be the key question both combatants need to ask each other.

 

I will be very happy to be wrong.

 

I'm with you on that, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

The only thing [let's call it a 'tool'] I may have handy in this regard is my personal vote going forward in the Danish society, when I get asked about something. Time will tell when the time eventually is up for some decisions. In that respect better not to expect anything than to end up disappointed.

[Luke]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3280584/made-china-2035-will-it-topple-us-hi-tech-and-military-manufacturing-10-years?utm_medium=email&utm_source=cm&utm_campaign=enlz-today_international&utm_content=20241002&tpcc=enlz-today_international&UUID=6d0f8903-f8b8-4bf5-8477-621847965327&next_article_id=3280755&article_id_list=3280584,3280755,3280766,3280741,3280735,3280709,3280820,3280777&tc=4

 

China will overtake the United States in hi-tech and advanced military manufacturing within a decade, according to a prominent Chinese strategist. “Overall, the decline of the US manufacturing industry and its weakened competitiveness in the global market have become an irreversible trend,” said Lu Yongxiang, former vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress, in a commentary published in the Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering on September 9. Lu, who is also former president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is known for his foresight as a mechanical engineer, and has been influential in helping to shape the Chinese government’s long-term development strategies. He has also served as the director of the expert advisory board for the “Made in China 2025” programme under the State Council, China’s cabinet. While the US has maintained its lead in hi-tech and advanced military equipment production, its advantages are rapidly diminishing, according to Lu. “It is estimated that by 2035, ‘Made in China’ will surpass the United States and become the global leader,” Lu said in the article. Lu also predicted that China’s economy will be larger than America’s by that time. “The world will enter a new era,” he added. In 2010, China’s manufacturing output surpassed the US according to the Chinese government, which cited statistics from the World Bank. However, Chinese factories lagged significantly in terms of technology and product quality. In 2015, Beijing launched a 10-year plan to narrow the gap, and this plan is expected to be renewed every decade. However, “Made in China 2025” has since drawn significant responses from Washington and its allies. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have imposed measures such as trade tariffs, semiconductor export controls and “small yard, high fence” policies to restrain China’s development. Yet, according to an investigation by the South China Morning Post, most of the goals outlined in the “Made in China 2025” plan have already been achieved. Among them, the rise of high-end industries – such as shipbuilding, electric vehicles, drones, renewable energy, and industrial robots – has been much faster than expected, leaving behind competitors in the United States and other developed countries. Last year, Chinese shipyards secured orders to build more than 1,500 large ships worldwide, while only five orders went to the US. China contributed about one-third of the total global manufacturing output last year, roughly double that of the US. Still, China’s manufacturing sector lags behind the US in some advanced fields, especially in advanced weapons production, according to Lu. “Lockheed Martin’s pulse line in the United States maintains an annual assembly capacity of only 12 aircraft, but during wartime, relying on global supply chain collaboration, it can produce one aircraft every two days,” he wrote. China has now produced more than 200 J-20 stealth fighters, surpassing the number of F-22s made by the US, but far fewer than the more than 1,000 F-35s that have been made. China has produced only two operational aircraft carriers, while the US has 11.

 

According to US media reports, some senior American military officers say that a war between China and the United States could break out as early as next year. China, meanwhile, is undergoing a painful economic transformation, with traditional industries such as real estate, retail and fossil fuel-powered car manufacturing shrinking, resulting in significant job losses. The average output measured by value of a Chinese worker is also significantly lower than the average American worker. “We must turn the crisis into opportunities,” Lu wrote. A long-term advantage of China’s manufacturing sector was in technological innovation, he said. “China’s research and development intensity has reached 2.64 per cent [of GDP], surpassing the average level of [European Union] countries,” he wrote. Advanced infrastructure also helps create an excellent environment for investment in manufacturing. “China not only ranks first in the world in terms of the length of high-speed rail and highways, but we also lead in the ultra-high-voltage transmission network. “Furthermore, China is also at the forefront in the construction of gigabit-level optical cables and 5G broadband wireless communication networks,” Lu said. “China not only possesses a vast pool of innovative human resources but also the world’s largest and rapidly growing domestic market for manufacturing. This makes China an irresistible attraction for global innovative talent and international capital.” Although the birth rate is declining, China’s quality of life has improved, which has also helped to increase the competitiveness of its manufacturing sectors. China’s average life expectancy is now 78.6 years, while the US sits at 77.5 years, according to government data. “A nationwide health and epidemic prevention network, a healthcare database, and advanced facilities for medical research and clinical medicine covering a population of 1.4 billion provide a solid scientific and technological basis for national health,” Lu said. The cause of the decline in US manufacturing lies in strategic misdirection, a lesson that Lu said was worth learning. “In the global division of the manufacturing industry chain, the United States has transferred labour-intensive, low value-added manufacturing to developing countries, while focusing on retaining hi-tech research and development and vigorously developing virtual economies such as stocks, securities and financial investments,” he wrote. “However, due to excessive financial bubbles, constant provocation of international conflicts, and intense partisan strife within the country, the US manufacturing industry is accelerating its shift from the real to the virtual economy. “The ageing of infrastructure in the United States, coupled with the declining attractiveness of manufacturing to the younger generation, has also accelerated the continuous decline of US manufacturing.” Both candidates in the US presidential race have made revitalising the manufacturing industry one of their top priorities. US Vice-President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris said she would boost investment in hi-tech industries such as chips and aerospace. The Republican contender, former US president Donald Trump, promised radical measures to bring manufacturing jobs back to the country. During a campaign speech last Wednesday in Savannah, Georgia – a vehicle manufacturing hub and home to one of the country’s largest ports – Trump said a vote for him would result in a “mass exodus” of manufacturing from US allies South Korea and Germany, as well as economic rival China. “We will take other countries’ jobs. We’re going to take their factories,” he said.

[mattee2264]

It is pretty stupid really. China want us to take their low-skill manufacturing jobs so they can move up the value chain and take advantage of the scientific and technological capabilities they've been building as well as their strategic resource base. 

 

 I can't help feeling that long term China may well be an absolutely fantastic investment bet to the point that it probably doesn't matter whether it may be currently overbought on the assumption that the stimulus package (and assumed future stimulus packages) prevent an economic depression.

 

 Short term things seem murky though. A consumer economy is easy to stimulate with stimulus checks and low interest rates. But investment has been a huge driver of the Chinese economy and there is a massive overhang of malinvestment and even low interest rates and easier credit conditions are unlikely to be enough to stimulate investment. And if the government tries to replace the investment spending by making its own investments a further misallocation of capital is even more likely.  

[nsx5200]

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/for-chinese-tech-startups-beijing-fills-a-funding-void-left-by-vcs-deeb0e2c?mod=hp_lead_pos8

"A sharp drop in venture-capital funding for Chinese startups is leading Beijing to be more involved in grooming the country’s tech industry, a strategy that threatens to handicap China’s efforts to catch up with Western technologies in the long run."

"State-owned companies with minimal tech connections are joining the push. Kweichow Moutai, a leading producer of baijiu, a liquor served at state banquets, and its smaller rival Luzhou Laojiao recently made investments in chip-related companies. "

 

Source from WSJ, a source with known anti-China bias, so calibrate accordingly.

 

A different dynamic than what we in the U.S. are used to, so maybe it's worth taking another look at those state-owned companies that have bond-like qualities, now with a lottery upshot (or unnecessary drag...).

[Luke]

Chinaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!

 

 

[Luke]

Picture of @RichardGibbons

 

[changegonnacome]

Some debate obviously on the causes or reasons for the initial 2022 invasion.....I've got my theories (NATO/US 'puppetism'), others have theirs (the Catherine the Great theory)....but the competing theories can't be more different in a way.......an imperialist & a national security NATO 'red line-ist' are two very different beasts to deal with in a 'peace' negotiation.

 

An imperialist who encountered way more resistance than they ever expected so was under prepared to achieve their military aims.....takes a win with a small 'w' (Donbas/Crimea), concedes on NATO, takes some marginal incremental territory and goes home to rebuild their military forces to try again later.....a (temporary) peace deal should be 'easy' to do with an imperialist .......a country/leader driven by genuine existential national security concerns rooted in NATO/US encroachment....will not fold on a red line issues like NATO membership.

 

As we enter the end game here - we are going to get our answer......the 'tell' so to speak, IMO, has already come from Zelensky right at the beginning of this conflict in March 2022 in his most early kite flying for a negotiated settlement (see below BBC link)....we in the West might be confused about Putin's invasion motivations given our information is filtered through our own version of (un)controlled private media (that nevertheless manufacturers consent to borrow a Chomskyism).

 

Zelensky has a clearer eyed view than anyone on the causes and the solutions to Ukraine's woes....and HIS solution to this war, offering permanent Ukrainian neutrality, speaks more clearly to the origins of this situation than a million WH briefings, NY Times and CNN pieces.

 

28 March 2022 - "Zelensky says Ukraine prepared to discuss neutrality in peace talks"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60901024

Edited October 4, 2024 by changegonnacome

[RichardGibbons]

3 hours ago, Luke said:

Picture of @RichardGibbons

 

 

LOL!  I'm awesome!

[John Hjorth]

I stumbled on this piece today, -not really 'new' news, as per the release date :

 

Atlantic Counsel - UkraineAlert [ October 3^rd 2024] : Ukraine is slowly but steadily weakening Russia’s grip on Crimea.

 

- - - o 0 o - - 

 

In a way there is basically some logic to it by all means and measures, because the front lines are so long and vast, because of of geografical size of both countries in conclict.

 

So, in a way, it also works both ways.

 

Anyone here on CoBF noted, that we hear nothing about the Russian South Fleet and it doings any longer, - now for months? 

[Spekulatius]

Probably one of the best summaries (in German) and one of the most depressing ones about the war situation from the Austrian Markus Reisner, who has done excellent commentary before. This is a more a big picture overview.

 

[Spekulatius]

This is another good one from an analyst - the danish analyst Anders Lick Nielsen:

He has been much more right about Ukraine than wrong, unlike Mearsheimer who predicted that there would not be an invasion just a few days before it happened.

[UK]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This is another good one from an analyst - the danish analyst Anders Lick Nielsen:

He has been much more right about Ukraine than wrong, unlike Mearsheimer who predicted that there would not be an invasion just a few days before it happened.

Good. Is his take on China/Taiwan available?

[backtothebeach]

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This is another good one from an analyst - the danish analyst Anders Lick Nielsen:

He has been much more right about Ukraine than wrong, unlike Mearsheimer who predicted that there would not be an invasion just a few days before it happened.

 

That could have been a 5 minute video, geeez. A good point about Mersheimer shifting goal posts, and then 15 minutes of rambling.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

30 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

That could have been a 5 minute video, geeez. A good point about Mersheimer shifting goal posts, and then 15 minutes of rambling.

 

Now that was  funny!  

 

Exactly the same happened to me late last night, I was simply too tired, and had to stop trying to  listen to the whole thing after a few minutes. I'll elaborate a bit for all about Anders Puck Nielsen after having listening to the whole again today.

Edited October 7, 2024 by John Hjorth

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-06/china-is-making-investor-calls-so-awkward

 

[Spekulatius]

40 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Now that was  funny!  

 

Exactly the same happened to me late last night, I was simply too tired, and had to stop trying to  listen to the whole thing after a few minutes. I'll elaborate a bit for all about Anders Puck Nielsen after having listening to the whole again today.

Anders makes some other points about Putin making lousy decisions when some in the west believe he is a strategic mastermind.

 

Mearsheimer is one of those structural dogmatic historians who see all the events in a very narrow lens. He is making some bold productions about the Israel conflict now that I don’t think will age that well either.

 

In the end, it’s just people who make decisions and unless you know how these people think, it’s impossible to predict what they do.

Edited October 7, 2024 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

In the end, it’s just people who make decisions and unless you know how these people think, it’s impossible to predict what they do.

 

I think this is a fair assessment - monkeys inside the machine do unpredictable things.......what I would say in Mearsheimar's defense and in the defense of realist theory broadly in international security studies......is that it (realism) has the highest base rate of any of the competing theories in attempting to predict the future of state level conflicts.......that's not to say it is highly predictive but rather to say that amongst all the frameworks one could use to approach this dastardly problem of prediction it is the best.

[CGJB]

Here's wishing a very happy birthday to Russian President Vladimir Putin, born 72 years ago today. By far the best leader Russia has had in more than a century. May he have many, many more.
------------------------

 

[cubsfan]

^^^ I guess even Ted Bundy had a fan club..

[dwy000]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ I guess even Ted Bundy had a fan club..

At first i assumed it was being ironic.  Guess not!

[moneyball]

Today setting up to be interesting test of resolve for China bulls

[UK]

12 hours ago, CGJB said:

Here's wishing a very happy birthday to Russian President Vladimir Putin, born 72 years ago today. By far the best leader Russia has had in more than a century. May he have many, many more.
------------------------

 

 

Interesting map in the backgroud. Not sure I recognize it or what teritory is marked by the red to the west from the yellow one (Russia?), but for his birthday I wish him to rule only in the yellow part to the east in the future:))

[Luke]

19 minutes ago, moneyball said:

Today setting up to be interesting test of resolve for China bulls

Stocks are dirt cheap, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Tepper doubles down, honestly! 

 

EDIT: As he said in the interview.

Edited October 8, 2024 by Luke

[UK]

1 hour ago, moneyball said:

Today setting up to be interesting test of resolve for China bulls