Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

6 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Yea, Putin went from controlling Crimea so he could have deep water ports for the Black Sea fleet and 10% of Ukraine (the Donbas), to controlling Crimea and 15% of Ukraine, all at a cost of only a half million men, most of his modern tanks, 10% of his air force and nearly half the Black Sea fleet sunk or disabled. All while being trapped in a Vietnam like debacle for three years he can't get out of lest he risk being overthrown. 

 

Thats a level of genius that even a youtuber in his mothers basement could not comprehend, i'll give you that.

 

 - Good humor, @ValueArb,

 

Add to that the strategic loss of the Russian Northern Fleets ability to access the North Sea and the Baltic Sea [because of Sweden and Finland now NATO members], thereby the fleets access to Moscow and Stalingrad, if Russia does not behave in that area.

[Luke]

You guys should be hired as generals!! If only Putin had you in his team!! But no, he has these dumb know nothing russians fighting for him...

 

We dont know whats going on behind the scenes, one of the most supervised areas, nord stream pipeline, got blown up without any of us knowing what happened. Intelligence agencies probably know but the public wont. Was it so obvious that Ukraine would get hundreds of billions of weapons, full access to intelligence information etc considering they are a country with very high corruption? Probably not. And again, Putin has 1000x the information available that we do and it certainly wasnt as easy as "he didnt know, was just dumb and now he has the problem hehe" 

Edited May 30, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

That nobody in europe or the west even questions 1% of motives of our countries and that our countries also couldnt be transparent is quite shocking, everybody takes what our governments say for 100% face value and Putin is just Darth Vader. Simple story...

[Dinar]

8 hours ago, Luca said:

That nobody in europe or the west even questions 1% of motives of our countries and that our countries also couldnt be transparent is quite shocking, everybody takes what our governments say for 100% face value and Putin is just Darth Vader. Simple story...

Luca, no normal human being would voluntarily join the KGB.  This is the organization that murdered tens of millions of Soviet citizens.  So when Putin came to power in 1998, I had no illusions.  Darth Vader is an angel compared to someone who would voluntarily join an organization that committed mass murder for decades on a  scale that would make Hitler seem an amateur.

[ValueArb]

8 hours ago, Luca said:

You guys should be hired as generals!! If only Putin had you in his team!! But no, he has these dumb know nothing russians fighting for him...

 

We dont know whats going on behind the scenes, one of the most supervised areas, nord stream pipeline, got blown up without any of us knowing what happened. Intelligence agencies probably know but the public wont. Was it so obvious that Ukraine would get hundreds of billions of weapons, full access to intelligence information etc considering they are a country with very high corruption? Probably not. And again, Putin has 1000x the information available that we do and it certainly wasnt as easy as "he didnt know, was just dumb and now he has the problem hehe" 

 

Good investors investigate their mistakes in search of biases and poor thought processes. Thats not unusual, its common to investigate accidents for causes in order to prevent them in the future. To quote the esteemed philosopher William Burr "If I got bitten by a rattlesnake, wouldn't you ask questions? How did it happen? Did you not see it? Were you f-ing with it? How did a snake get so mad it almost killed you?"

 

You assert Putin has 1000x the information that we do (without justification mind you) and yet are unable to explain how Putin didn't anticipate the western response to his invasion of Ukraine, or the Ukrainian response to the invasion, or the failures of his military despite its massive advantage in men and materials.

 

The problem isn't in the volume , or even the quality of the information, its in whether it was even accepted or used. How many generals do you think stood up to Putin and said our trucks are in poor shape, our logistics terrible, our troops are poorly trained and led, our tanks are death traps, and if we don't take Kyiv quickly we'll get stuck in a quagmire, maybe for years? And then our most valuable ships in our Black Sea fleet will be at risk, our air force will suffer substantial attrition, and this new war will be fought with drones that negate much of our advantage in armor. 

 

How many do you think told him it would be a piece of cake, three days tops?

 

We weren't there but the results clearly show that Putin only listened to the 3 day generals.  If there were any who had any clear insight into the difficulties Russia would face in this invasion, their views weren't given any weight before the war. In fact they probably weren't allowed in the room. We know this because Putin has never fixed anything in two years, or changed his command structure until he finally demoted(?) Shoigu just a few weeks ago.

 

This is the all too common story of dictators. They end up surrounding themselves with loyalists out of fear of being overthrown. Loyalists always end up being yes-men and boot-lickers, because anyone who tells the boss they are wrong gets ostracized and booted out of the inner circle. Generals who complained about Putin cronies stripping their maintenance and training budgets were demoted, fired or killed years ago. The surviving generals are the ones  kept their mouth shut and agreed with Shoigu on whatever he told them to.

 

Your posts are 100% appeal to authority. Putin is in charge, so he must know more than us and can't be stupid!

 

The problem is all those thousands of GRU analysts and agents preparing reports are writing what their superiors allow to be written based on what is palatable to Shoigu so that any reports presented to Putin are consistent about one thing, its not Shoigu's fault!

 

Instead, as always it's western agents fomenting color revolution to undermine Putin and Russia.  Since Ukrainians can't be as good as Russians, the only explanation for Ukraine still standing is that NATO troops must be fighting in Ukraine! Western agents must have convinced Wagner to revolt! Most Ukrainians secretly hate Zelensky, love Putin and long to be part of Russia, but roaming UK assassination teams suppress dissent in Ukraine just like our FSB teams do in Russia! Did you know the US had germ warfare labs in Ukraine!!!!! They must be slowly poisoning our troops, by injecting bioweapons into our good soldiers vodka bottles!!!!!!!

 

So pick a lane. Either Putin has access to all the true intelligence on their failures in Ukraine, but he's just too stupid to make good decisions. Or he's not dumb, but built an organization where everyone near the top knows their political survival requires telling Putin what he wants to hear and blaming rivals for every failure. 

 

Because he's failed, utterly. Ukraine is debacle for Russia far worse than Vietnam was for the US. It simply can't be true he was given good intelligence, and made good decisions. Either his intelligence were biased and bad, his decisions were terrible, or both. 

[John Hjorth]

10 hours ago, Luca said:

That nobody in europe or the west even questions 1% of motives of our countries and that our countries also couldnt be transparent is quite shocking, everybody takes what our governments say for 100% face value and Putin is just Darth Vader. Simple story...

 

Putin is the agressor here. He thought he would get away with it. He didn't. Plain and simple. Already incurred damages to the economic future of Europe are already gigantic, and still uncontained, evolving and spreading as ripples.

 

I would really like one day to read your personal vision for Europe for the next, say 30 - 50 years in this topic, based on European values as you perceive them personally, @Luca. [  ]

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Putin is the agressor here. He thought he would get away with it. He didn't. Plain and simple. Already incurred damages to the economic future of Europe are already gigantic, and still uncontained, evolving and spreading as ripples.

 

I would really like one day to read your personal vision for Europe for the next, say 30 - 50 years in this topic, based on European values as you perceive them personally, @Luca. [  ]

It's never as simple as "Putin is the aggressor end of story". The economic damage largely comes from our fault of sanctions and now sponsoring billions of dollars to Ukraine in a War they can't win and a war where hundreds of thousands of men will die due to our weapons. If Selensky wants to fight, let him fight but don't send him more weapons. The pope said it, its time to be the bigger man and start negotiating and getting out the best for his people, which is NOT continuing this fight for more years, more deaths, and the same outcome with a worse negotiation position down the road. They will get a peace treaty, give Russia the eastern regions of which many DO want to be a part of Russia and were victims of discrimination, agree to no training with US troops, no nato training, new elections, and the war is over and they can start repairing their country. 

 

The other choice is war until the last man standing for Ukraine and then total collapse for the country after most young men are dead. Even worse, we might get drawn into this war and have to send our men too or worse, face nuclear attacks with further escalation. I don't think the citizens of European countries want war with russia (except for some crazy leaders and some military/war fans)

 

 

The united states of Europe was never admirable nor possible and every European country has smaller or very much larger different political interests that can not be represented by Brussel. So regarding European politics, there should be a lot more political power in the nations, a reduction in the membership states to the few countries that have the highest similar goals and comparable quality of life (Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, UK, Ireland (under the condition of tax haven removal)) ...german workers suffered because of Europe migration, the eastern countries accept the cheapest wages and pushed down the wages and quality of life for the locals. Countries should do politics based on their interest and not based on global geopolitical planning by US/Nato and we should not join the blockbuilding and China/Russia hostility

Edited May 30, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

@ValueArb is probably ready to spend hundreds of billions more and push for deploying Nato/US troops and go for total war against Russia (and probably China too), which the US can do if they want (I hope @ValueArb will fight too)! 

 

Some larger german politicians are already pushing for nato troop deployment...

Edited May 30, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

Western countries are already so involved, the US military but also EU military is side by side with Ukraine and providing intelligence services, training the troops, and giving them more and more weapons...its only a matter of time until the nuclear blast will annihilate the Ukrainian front lines

Edited May 30, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

And what will the West do then? WW3? 

 

Maybe consider diplomacy instead of increasing hostilities and fronts!

 

Cheers! 

Edited May 30, 2024 by Luca

[cubsfan]

Of course Europe or the US do not want a war with Russia.  Do you think the Russians want a war with them? A war certainly, that Russia can not win?

 

You are seeing the red line being drawn by the Europeans - which should comfort Poland, and the Baltic States. Europe knows exactly what they are doing.

 

Diplomacy is wise - unfortunately for Ukraine, it will cost them the eastern half of their country, but save millions of lives they can not afford to lose. But the cost must be high for Russia as well. A united Europe will see to that.

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Of course Europe or the US do not want a war with Russia.  Do you think the Russians want a war with them? A war certainly, that Russia can not win?

A hot war between nuclear powers will be the end and I don't see enough efforts to prevent this.

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You are seeing the red line being drawn by the Europeans - which should comfort Poland, and the Baltic States. Europe knows exactly what they are doing.

Well, the line moved already and there are more deaths ahead. If you give Ukraine too much potential to hurt Russia they will just use more and more severe attacks, hitting critical infrastructure or at last resort, use tactical nuclear bombs to arrange their security. Ukraine CANT win. 

 

Just released from austrian military: https://www.bundesheer.at/aktuelles/detail/drei-fragen-zum-angriff-auf-das-russische-atomraketen-fruehwarnsystem-oberst-reisner-antwortet

 

"If this is indeed the case, two further conclusions can be drawn: first, the situation in Ukraine is extremely serious and second, the war over Ukraine has escalated again. It now remains to be seen how or if Russia will respond to this attack on its nuclear deterrence capability. The Russian early warning detection system is part of the country's nuclear deterrence strategy. The attack on Armavir could fulfill the conditions that Russia publicly set out in 2020 for adversary attacks that could trigger a nuclear retaliation strike. In addition, possible cooperation between Russia and its close allies in the space has been limited, to the benefit of close US partners."

 

13 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Diplomacy is wise - unfortunately for Ukraine, it will cost them the eastern half of their country, but save millions of lives they can not afford to lose. But the cost must be high for Russia as well. A united Europe will see to that.

Putin won't knock at Europe door no matter how much the media wants us to believe that to justify further escalation. He even seemed to be willing to let the rest of Ukraine join Europe as long as security assurances were given. This war can be ended right now, lives can be saved, the sanctions can be lifted, we can work on mutual diplomacy with russia and china and develop this world in peace. 

[ValueArb]

34 minutes ago, Luca said:

@ValueArb is probably ready to spend hundreds of billions more and push for deploying Nato/US troops and go for total war against Russia (and probably China too), which the US can do if they want (I hope @ValueArb will fight too)! 

 

Some larger german politicians are already pushing for nato troop deployment...

You know I’m exactly right about Putin so you dodge, deflect and change the topic.

[Luke]

Just now, ValueArb said:

You know I’m exactly right about Putin so you dodge, deflect and change the topic.

No, I do not think you are exactly right about him and I have laid out my view on this situation in this thread already  

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, Luca said:

 

Putin won't knock at Europe door no matter how much the media wants us to believe that to justify further escalation.

 

You have absolutely no idea what is going on in Putin's head. None.

 

Same mistake President Obama made with his "reset button".

"Hey Vlad, give me a little space on this next election, and I'll kill the missile projects"

 

After his very generous concession, Putin took Crimea and then the rest. Fools trust Putin.

[Luke]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

You have absolutely no idea what is going on in Putin's head. None.

 

Same mistake President Obama made with his "reset button".

"Hey Vlad, give me a little space on this next election, and I'll kill the missile projects"

 

After his very generous concession, Putin took Crimea and then the rest. Fools trust Putin.

He certainly isn't planning to knock at Natos door  

[Libs]

50 minutes ago, Luca said:

He certainly isn't planning to knock at Natos door  

 

That's exactly what he might do. As described upthread..... a small incursion into  a remote part of a NATO country. A test of NATO'S resolve. Will Germany risk nuclear war over such a small event? We will find out. It will be very tempting to do nothing. And thus NATO's credibility is shot. The result will not be good.

 

It might be 1938 again.

 

 

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

No, I do not think you are exactly right about him and I have laid out my view on this situation in this thread already  

 

Then why the deflection and attempt to poison the well by accusing me of positions I don't hold?

[Xerxes]

 
Technically speaking both sides are and will be poking holes and see what they can do. And far they can go.  

NATO’ member sovereignty has been breached so many times, and Russia’ national interest has been ignored so many times, that there is enough juice to drop the charade and engage in full scale war.  

But neither sides want that.
So we go on with the charade, and dance the dance. 
 

That is very different than in the late 1930s. and I understand the attraction to keep bringing up Munich for the narrative. However back then Western leaders were just hoping that Herr Hitler would see reason. 
 

There are no such delusions today about Kremlin’ ambitions to torpedo the post-1945 world order. All it takes is a Russian victory in the war and all credibility is lost.
 

The remedy to that however is even worse. Fund and arm Ukraine until they can eject 200,000 troops from their soil. 

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

A hot war between nuclear powers will be the end and I don't see enough efforts to prevent this.

Well, the line moved already and there are more deaths ahead. If you give Ukraine too much potential to hurt Russia they will just use more and more severe attacks, hitting critical infrastructure or at last resort, use tactical nuclear bombs to arrange their security. Ukraine CANT win. 

 

Just released from austrian military: https://www.bundesheer.at/aktuelles/detail/drei-fragen-zum-angriff-auf-das-russische-atomraketen-fruehwarnsystem-oberst-reisner-antwortet

 

"If this is indeed the case, two further conclusions can be drawn: first, the situation in Ukraine is extremely serious and second, the war over Ukraine has escalated again. It now remains to be seen how or if Russia will respond to this attack on its nuclear deterrence capability. The Russian early warning detection system is part of the country's nuclear deterrence strategy. The attack on Armavir could fulfill the conditions that Russia publicly set out in 2020 for adversary attacks that could trigger a nuclear retaliation strike. In addition, possible cooperation between Russia and its close allies in the space has been limited, to the benefit of close US partners."

 

The classic Russian threat to escalate to nukes has been repeated over and over ad nauseum for decades. They've threatened it when the US started aiding Ukraine, when US decided to send HIMARS, when US decided to send ATACMS, when discussion of sending F-16s became public, etc, etc, etc. 

 

The Kremlin isn't going to do it for two reasons

1) They and their families will get incinerated.

2) They don't know how many of their nukes even work anymore.

 

Al most every Russian sub missile test for decades has had failures. Its not likely getting any better with Putin's team of kleptocrats having their fingers deep in the military budgets. And their ABM systems are far worse than the Wests. 

 

1 hour ago, Luca said:

 

Putin won't knock at Europe door no matter how much the media wants us to believe that to justify further escalation. He even seemed to be willing to let the rest of Ukraine join Europe as long as security assurances were given. This war can be ended right now, lives can be saved, the sanctions can be lifted, we can work on mutual diplomacy with russia and china and develop this world in peace. 

 

No one should believe Putin. He's a proven liar who only wants "peace" to rebuild before re-invading. He'll never give they type of assurances that we can trust, so the only way to end the war is to eject Russia from Ukraine and Crimea.

[Luke]

10 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Then why the deflection and attempt to poison the well by accusing me of positions I don't hold?

I am not deflecting, I have made my position clear already before in this thread, and weren't you drumming for Ukraine to continue this war and deliver more and heavier weapons? How far are you willing to go, personally? 

[Luke]

11 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

The classic Russian threat to escalate to nukes has been repeated over and over ad nauseum for decades. They've threatened it when the US started aiding Ukraine, when US decided to send HIMARS, when US decided to send ATACMS, when discussion of sending F-16s became public, etc, etc, etc. 

 

The Kremlin isn't going to do it for two reasons

1) They and their families will get incinerated.

2) They don't know how many of their nukes even work anymore.

 

Al most every Russian sub missile test for decades has had failures. Its not likely getting any better with Putin's team of kleptocrats having their fingers deep in the military budgets. And their ABM systems are far worse than the Wests. 

 

 

No one should believe Putin. He's a proven liar who only wants "peace" to rebuild before re-invading. He'll never give they type of assurances that we can trust, so the only way to end the war is to eject Russia from Ukraine and Crimea.

Sorry, but you don't know how functional their nuclear capabilities are and I think they are very likely to work. Using tactical nukes for strategically important Ukrainian positions won't burn their families but cause huge damage and they play a significant role in this war.  

 

No one should believe anyone, not even NATO...fact is, Putin is willing to negotiate and with the right assurances peace is reachable (on which you disagree). 

 

My predictions: 

 

1. Ukraine will further lose men daily and Russia will accelerate the damage behind the front. 

2. Ukraine will eventually face a dead end due to a lack of men and crumbling infrastructure. 

3. If the West allows Ukraine to attack Russian soil, Russia will intensify the damage to Ukraine to assure its security. 

4. Tactical Nuclear bombs will be used IF Ukraine poses a significant threat to Russian sovereignty

5. Ukraine will lose except if the west joins the war actively.

6. We will then have WW3. 

7. If the West doesn't join, Ukraine will lose and the country will become an empty battlefield zone over time and the government will slowly collapse. Ukraine will become a wasteland. 

 

Sacrificing regions and joining a realistic peace treaty is by far the best option to take for Ukraine and for us. We will know how this war turns out in a couple of years and I am willing to change my mind if things change! 

 

Edited May 30, 2024 by Luca

[ValueArb]

44 minutes ago, Libs said:

 

That's exactly what he might do. As described upthread..... a small incursion into  a remote part of a NATO country. A test of NATO'S resolve. Will Germany risk nuclear war over such a small event? We will find out. It will be very tempting to do nothing. And thus NATO's credibility is shot. The result will not be good.

 

It might be 1938 again.

 

 

 

I wouldn't worry much. Any Russian incursion would be in Poland, and would end with Polish troops in Moscow within a month. 

 

Poland has purchased 32 F-35s, 48 F-16s, 48 Patriot batteries, 18 HIMARS launchers, 45 ATACMS launchers, nearly 400 Abrams tanks, 96 Apache helicopters, and 800 JASSM-ER cruise missiles, etc, etc. The Polish military is far stronger than Ukraine's was at the start of the war, with far more modern weapons than Ukraine has even today. 

 

Poland also has a deep institutional memory of the numerous historical genocides Russia inflicted upon them, and its well trained troops can't wait to run through the outdated, poorly lead Russian military like a hot knife through butter.

[Luke]

1 hour ago, Libs said:

That's exactly what he might do. As described upthread..... a small incursion into  a remote part of a NATO country. A test of NATO'S resolve. Will Germany risk nuclear war over such a small event? We will find out. It will be very tempting to do nothing. And thus NATO's credibility is shot. The result will not be good.

 

It might be 1938 again.

 

 

He has absolutely 0 interest in doing that. What would the benefit for him be in doing this? He wants germany as a good buyer of their resources, stability and supplying industrial goods to them back. That job china filled in now   

Edited May 30, 2024 by Luca

[ValueArb]

17 minutes ago, Luca said:

I am not deflecting, I have made my position clear already before in this thread, and weren't you drumming for Ukraine to continue this war and deliver more and heavier weapons? How far are you willing to go, personally? 

 

I've said we have at least a thousand Abrams and Bradleys and hundreds of F-16s in long term storage we should be providing Ukraine, along with more ATACMS with unitary warheads for deep strikes. Never did I say we need to send in NATO troops, which was your attempt to poison the well.