Political Posts

[abyli]

16 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

I don't know if you're being sarcastic here. Sure, China has its flaws & ofcourse there is propaganda around but this statement seems a little farfetched.

 

I notice that you've had positions in China in the past, you've held PDD since IPO, do you still hold it? Also JD & BABA. What is your view on Chinese equities right now if you don't mind me asking. How do you see the equities market in China going forward, has your perception changed over the years? How much significance do you place on the broader macro here? Since you're from the country originally, your insight would be worth knowing.

 

No, I dare not touch Chinese equities any more. I like PDD the company, I trust the management team. The key question is if CEO of any Chinese company cannot even protect his own life, how can he/she protect your interest? Remember, this is a communist country. There is no law to protect private properties. The government can take away your house anytime, can make you disappear any day. The communist party control the government, control the police, control the court, control all the big banks, control all the media. Now with digital tools, the gov can control every single posts online (they can remove your posts, can block your accounts, can send you into prison just because you said one word they considered wrong), they have records of every word you typed in WeChat. Before 2012, the top 7 guys from CCP make big decisions as a group. Now Xi has the power to stay there forever.... 

[Sweet]

6 hours ago, abyli said:

 

Q1 2024 29.6Trillion

Q1 2023 28.5 Trillion

 

29.6/28.5 = 103.9%, that was 3.9% increase from Q1 2023, where did the 5.3% come from? 

 

Q4 2023 34.4Trillion

29.6/34.4 = 86%, so Q1 2024 was down 14% from last quarter Q4 2023. 

 

It is obvious all those GDP numbers are faked.... 

 

 

Where are you getting those GDP figures from?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Thanks for the insight @abyli, but wasn't this the case a few years ago too? Everything you mentioned has been that way since Xi came into power. You were bullish then, what was the nail in the coffin for you? the virus?

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, Sweet said:

Where are you getting those GDP figures from?

Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Thanks for the insight @abyli, but wasn't this the case a few years ago too? Everything you mentioned has been that way since Xi came into power. You were bullish then, what was the nail in the coffin for you? the virus?

Xi came into power in 2013 but it did only became gradually obvious that Chinese way of checks and balances within the party (via committees and fractions and term limits  ) are replaced with one man Neo Maoist rule.

 

The Frog is slowly getting boiled, I guess.

 

I have a few shares of BABA which I intend to hold, but I have a hard time seeing me making a large investment in Chinese equities until something changes for the better.

Edited April 17, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Sweet]

16 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html

 

17 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html

Thanks.  That’s not 5.3%

[zippy1]

2 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

Thanks.  That’s not 5.3%

Some suspected that the Q1 2023 GDP was "quietly" revised down to make the Q1 2024 5.3% growth.
Of course, that begs the question whether later on the Q1 2024 GDP number would be revised down quietly...

[abyli]

5 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Thanks for the insight @abyli, but wasn't this the case a few years ago too? Everything you mentioned has been that way since Xi came into power. You were bullish then, what was the nail in the coffin for you? the virus?

 

Yes, you are right. You know, all Chinese were brain-washed since they were born, and they are still brain-washed 24 hours every day. That is why China blocked all international websites so that they can run their propaganda machine powerfully. The covid-19 woke me up. 

[crs223]

2 hours ago, abyli said:

 

all Chinese were brain-washed since they were born, and they are still brain-washed 24 hours every day.

 

What are some things that Chinese people don't know?

[abyli]

1 hour ago, crs223 said:

 

What are some things that Chinese people don't know?

Give you a few example: 1. In World War II, it was Communists who fought Japanese mainly. 2. In 1949 Communists won the domestic war because Communists are popular in China. 3. All major global issues happen because of USA: Russia went into Ukraine because of NATO and USA. 4. The China economy is not currently doing well because US sanctions China. 5. USA the empire always wants to overthrow China. (美帝国主义忘我之心不死)。。。

[Sweet]

Good. 

 

I do think this is too important.

 

And I think it gets the Ukraine monkey off their back and it allows the GOP to return the focus to the border.

 

Edited April 18, 2024 by Sweet

[Sweet]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-68838219

 

Good article that mixes the concerns of the West, the receding of manufacturer from China, and shows that even though we are not at war with China there is a real human cost to this as well.  Can't help but feel sorry for the many ordinary Chinese - although I would note that 40 years ago it was Western workers that were in the same boat.  Still a sober story.

[Sweet]

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/china-jan-mar-foreign-direct-investment-fell-26-1-on-year-to-cny301-67-bln-1f812956

 

FDI into China dropped 26% yoy

[Luke]

  

Just now, Sweet said:

I’m saying your ideas are fringe to inform others read that I’ve never met anybody in Europe who shares your belief.  They are fringe because it’s truly a moronic take and I think the reasons why are self-evident.

How kind of you, now your limited circle is a rule of thumb of whats legitimate or not? 

Just now, Sweet said:

There is a saying Luca, ‘peace through strength’ and another which is ‘weakness invites aggression.  Two percent was never appropriate.  Putin has been picking away at Ukraine for nearly a decade so it’s strange that Europe only just found religion.

Yes, we shouldn't have no military and be vulnerable. But that also doesn't mean that russia is interested in attacking any nato territory or going into Germany. Its a complete and absolute false interpretation of the situation and of the Russian government. Shall they have the ukraine regions...lets give them that, then we can stop the war, ukraine promises to not enter nato and its highly likely that Putin will accept. 

Just now, Sweet said:

Russian energy and German engineering is not an economic threat to the US.

It is, the whole eurasian axis is a threat to the US world order and they don't want that to happen. 

Just now, Sweet said:

The US has pulled away from Europe many years before the Ukraine war.  Look at the divergence in economic performance from 2008 to the Russian invasion. There is little innovation in Europe, we are over taxed and over regulated.

Our economic performance is now pathetic because we don't have solid fundamentals, even better for the US. Little innovation? I don't know on which planet you are living but we have a lot of top-notch companies. 

Just now, Sweet said:

Russia is not an adversary?  LMAO!  You’re insane.

They are not our best friend but they are a solid partner for trade and especially their exchange of gas for our products and money which we really need.

 

@Sweet

[Sweet]

3 minutes ago, Luca said:

  

How kind of you, now your limited circle is a rule of thumb of whats legitimate or not? 

Yes, we shouldn't have no military and be vulnerable. But that also doesn't mean that russia is interested in attacking any nato territory or going into Germany. Its a complete and absolute false interpretation of the situation and of the Russian government. Shall they have the ukraine regions...lets give them that, then we can stop the war, ukraine promises to not enter nato and its highly likely that Putin will accept. 

It is, the whole eurasian axis is a threat to the US world order and they don't want that to happen. 

Our economic performance is now pathetic because we don't have solid fundamentals, even better for the US. Little innovation? I don't know on which planet you are living but we have a lot of top-notch companies. 

They are not our best friend but they are a solid partner for trade and especially their exchange of gas for our products and money which we really need.

 

@Sweet

So Luca, you’re saying we would be better off closer to Russia whilst simultaneously heralding that Russia would never attack us because of NATO.  Right.

 

European tech companies cannot hold a candle to US.  I wish it wasn’t the case but it’s simply a fact that America beats Europe easily on innovation and technology.

 

[Luke]

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

So Luca, you’re saying we would be better off closer to Russia whilst simultaneously heralding that Russia would never attack us because of NATO.  Right.

Russian trade was perfectly fine with a nato 8 years before the special operation  

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

European tech companies cannot hold a candle to US.  I wish it wasn’t the case but it’s simply a fact that America beats Europe easily on innovation and technology.

You said there is little innovation. 

 

1. ASML

2. Novo Nordisk

3. SAP

4. SIEMENS

5. AIRBUS (quite better than Boeing now...;-)) 

6. Lots of medical companies that are very innovative...merck etc

7. Atlas Copco

8. Very high quality automobile producers. 

9. NXP semis

10. BASF

11. Infineon

 

I don't think that's an accurate statement and its also not relevant to the discussion honestly. 

[Sweet]

15 minutes ago, Luca said:

Russian trade was perfectly fine with a nato 8 years before the special operation  

You said there is little innovation. 

 

1. ASML

2. Novo Nordisk

3. SAP

4. SIEMENS

5. AIRBUS (quite better than Boeing now...;-)) 

6. Lots of medical companies that are very innovative...merck etc

7. Atlas Copco

8. Very high quality automobile producers. 

9. NXP semis

10. BASF

11. Infineon

 

I don't think that's an accurate statement and its also not relevant to the discussion honestly. 

I didn’t say Europe has no innovation, I said it had little innovation, and if it wasn’t clear I was making that in comparison to the amount of innovation in America.

 

The only reason this came up was because you said German engineering and Russian resources threatened the US economy.

In 2008 the GDP of Europe was roughly the same size or bigger than US GDP.  Now the US economy is much bigger than Europe’s economy and we have far more people living in Europe.  We are doing something wrong.

 

You named a handful of European companies, the US has far more world leading tech companies.  Airbus is definitely better than Boeing right now, one thing we can agree on at least.

 

 

Edited April 20, 2024 by Sweet

[Luke]

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

I didn’t say Europe has no innovation, I said it had little innovation, and if it wasn’t clear I was making that in comparison to the amount of innovation in America.

I specifically wrote "little" and those companies do not have "little innovation". Agree to disagree. 

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

The only reason this came up was because said German engineering and Russian resources threatened the US economy.

The eurasian axis is a threat to the US which is why it has to be stopped and why Northstream was bombed by the US. Europe will be drawn into the war between US and China too and its not in our interest. 

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

In 2008 the GDP of Europe was roughly the same size or bigger than US GDP.  Now the US economy is much bigger than Europe’s economy and we have far more people living in Europe.  We are doing something wrong.

Europes economy compared to the US is not fair, we have very weak countries here...greece was weak, east was and is weak. 

 

I agree that there is too much regulation, Europe can be a powerhouse. Especially with russian resources and open Chinese markets. 

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

You named a handful of European companies, the US has far more world leading tech companies.  Airbus is definitely better than Boeing right now, one thing we can agree on at least.

Still, we don't have "little innovation". Most of these tech companies in the US quite literally literally depend on European engineering and innovation. 

Edited April 20, 2024 by Luca

[cubsfan]

The US & Europe have almost the same interests and have since the end of WWII.

That's why they are great allies. That's why the West has thrived.

 

- peaceful relations

- economic prosperity.

- free trade

 

Why in the world would the US execute on the Marshall Plan if that was not the case?  

I mean - rebuild your enemies Germany & Japan???

 

The result was almost 70 years of peace in Europe.

 

Meanwhile, the Soviet economic plan was a disaster for their subjects, and Mao had to kill 60 million for China to figure out their economic plan wouldn't work. Thank goodness Taiwan & Hong Kong weren't part of the plan.

[cubsfan]

On 4/18/2024 at 2:34 AM, Sweet said:

Good. 

 

I do think this is too important.

 

And I think it gets the Ukraine monkey off their back and it allows the GOP to return the focus to the border.

 

 There ya' go!

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/house-passes-95-billion-spending-package-for-ukraine-israel-and-taiwan

 

 

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 There ya' go!

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/house-passes-95-billion-spending-package-for-ukraine-israel-and-taiwan

 

 

“I am ready; aid or no aid”

 

[John Hjorth]

Let's hope for a more - over time - reliable, consistent and smooth support to Ukraine going forward from those nations and institutions, who support Ukraine under its  warfare against Russia.

[Spekulatius]

12 hours ago, cubsfan said:

The US & Europe have almost the same interests and have since the end of WWII.

That's why they are great allies. That's why the West has thrived.

 

- peaceful relations

- economic prosperity.

- free trade

 

Why in the world would the US execute on the Marshall Plan if that was not the case?  

I mean - rebuild your enemies Germany & Japan???

 

The result was almost 70 years of peace in Europe.

 

Meanwhile, the Soviet economic plan was a disaster for their subjects, and Mao had to kill 60 million for China to figure out their economic plan wouldn't work. Thank goodness Taiwan & Hong Kong weren't part of the plan.

Well said. Germany never thrived because of trade with a Russia. The NG dependency from Russia was a self inflicted wound that could have been voided by Merkel. It wasn’t necessary to drive the German industry.

[Luke]

24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Well said. Germany never thrived because of trade with a Russia. The NG dependency from Russia was a self inflicted wound that could have been voided by Merkel. It wasn’t necessary to drive the German industry.

I wouldnt be so sure about that: 

 

 

 

There is a lot of industry that thrived on cheap russian NG, the impact on GDP is not huge (10%+) but significant enough for our economy to stall. Chemical industry is 10%+ of GDP. Individual households had to pay huge sums to US and other NG producers pushing down domestic demand. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/14/germany-economy-recession-energy-exports/

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

45 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Well said. Germany never thrived because of trade with a Russia. The NG dependency from Russia was a self inflicted wound that could have been voided by Merkel. It wasn’t necessary to drive the German industry.

 

Yeah, @Spekulatius,

 

Add to that the German decisions to abolish German nuclear energy before the nuclear power plants EOL, by now amplifying the issues, those decisions in this regard in clear retrospect have turned out to be nothing less than dreadful and very costly, leaving German former energy giants such as E.ON and RWE behind almost as zombie companies laying around in rubbles.

 

CoBF topic : The Direction for Future European Energy : Eurelectric : Statement.