Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

How things work in Russia. [ To me, it's actually a bit entertaining! , and then again also very, very saddening ...]

 

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

Reuters [November 22^nd 2023] : Putin says we must think how to stop 'the tragedy' of war in Ukraine [from G20 Virtual Summit].

[UK]

 

[John Hjorth]

Thank you for sharing, @UK,

 

The statement by John Mearsheimer at around the 4:30 mark in the video about avoiding this war in the first first place, what is the basis for that particular statement from him? What is Mr. Mearsheimer referring to here? To me, it's not specific, as I experience and perceive the statement.

Edited November 23, 2023 by John Hjorth

[UK]

48 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Thank you for sharing, @UK,

 

The statement by John Mearsheimer at around the 4:30 mark in the video about avoiding this war in the first first place, what is the basis for that particular statement from him? What is Mr. Mearsheimer referring to here? To me, it's not specific, as I experience and perceive the statement.

 

As I understand he thinks that negotiations between Russia an Ukraine at that initial stage of the conflict could have been successful and they were close to some workable agreement, but Ukraine was encouraged to walk away from it. And today chances of something similar is very low. No trust etc. Not that there is something very new in what he said and I did not listened to the whole interview yet, but find his philosophy (offensive realism?) and worldview quite interesting. Not that I agree with him on everything:), but I think he says a lot of things that makes sense, kind of how everything works etc. Also on US vs China and other issues.  

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by UK

[changegonnacome]

29 minutes ago, UK said:

Ukraine was encouraged to walk away from it.

 

I think the reporting appear pretty solid on this from reputable sources - that a tentative deal was being put together in Turkey......lots of water from Turkey to a workable peace however so this woulda coulda sliding doors moments are rife with 'what ifs'.....however it appears that Boris Johnson chiefly with no doubt implicit/explicit US backing encouraged Zelensky to walk away......the hubristic math was that Ukraine's counteroffensive would be so wildly successful with the West's help that a better deal lay out in the future for Ukraine.

 

They (Uk/US) were probably right about that to be fair........but the West/Ukraine missed the moment of peak negotiating strength which was earlier this year when Kharkiv & Kherson were recaptured.......alas that was many many months ago now......and who needs a deal more now is much less clear.

[UK]

19 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I think the reporting appear pretty solid on this from reputable sources - that a tentative deal was being put together in Turkey......lots of water from Turkey to a workable peace however so this woulda coulda sliding doors moments are rife with 'what ifs'.....however it appears that Boris Johnson chiefly with no doubt implicit/explicit US backing encouraged Zelensky to walk away......the hubristic math was that Ukraine's counteroffensive would be so wildly successful with the West's help that a better deal lay out in the future for Ukraine.

 

They (Uk/US) were probably right about that to be fair........but the West/Ukraine missed the moment of peak negotiating strength which was earlier this year when Kharkiv & Kherson were recaptured.......alas that was many many months ago now......and who needs a deal more now is much less clear.

 

On the other hand isn't it always the case, that those with momentum on their side are not keen to negotiate or they demand too much? And btw Ukraine did regained a lot of territory after that. The question is now what? Maybe everything settles into some Korean situation, but will this be so stable and sustainable?

 

On the other hand, it appears far right, with Orban like ideollogy, just won elections perhaps in the most (former) open country in Europe...it is still hard to be very optimistic and sure about the future, at least in this part of the world. But hey, at least that German brigade is coming soon:)))

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by UK

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, UK said:

On the other hand isn't it always the case, that those with momentum on their side are not keen to negotiate or they demand too much? And btw Ukraine did regained a lot of territory after that. The question is now what? Maybe everything settles into some Korean situation, but will this be so stable and sustainable?

 

Momentum is important if your the weaker opponent as Ukraine is....time is not your friend when the country your figting has 5x the population, 5x the GDP & 5x industrial capacity...Ukraine surprised Russia with the speed and ease with which they took back Kharkiv & Kherson.......Russia's army appeared at this point to be at its weakest......I think looking back in the future THIS might be considered the point of strongest negotiating ability where Russia may have surrendered more land than Ukraine currently occupies.

 

Russia now will IMO sit & defacto permanently annex the land it currently occupies.......the conflict will be partially frozen here via some cease fire.....but Russia in occupying 20-25% of Ukraine's official land mass has created a strategic situation where Ukraine will not be a member of NATO ever.....for if Ukraine joins NATO.....NATO is immediately at war directly with Russia under the security guarantees.....which the West has no interest in.

Edited November 23, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Parsad]

From developer losses to the trickle down effect...can China stem all these losses and absorb them?

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/23/business/zhongzhi-enterprise-group-china-insolvent-hnk-intl/index.html

 

Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

The foes in this fight - both of them - are at the moment fighting! -  at their repectively very best! -  to keep up momentum! - against their common and shared enemy : mud!

 

Not much ticket selling in that for MSM, where the Israel-Hamas situation in Gaza just has more - much more - traction.

[formthirteen]

Weak leaders in Europe and US. I guess we will see WW3 soon.

 

 

[Xerxes]

On 11/23/2023 at 3:45 PM, changegonnacome said:

Russia now will IMO sit & defacto permanently annex the land it currently occupies.......the conflict will be partially frozen here via some cease fire

Russia has already de jure annexed those territories. There is no such thing as de facto annex, when they already de jure annexed. 
 

what you are trying to say is that it has de facto control on most of it. And enough control to make life miserable in the parts that it doesn’t control but are formally annexed. 

[crs223]

Doesn’t CCP know that these problems can be solved by distributing printed money (“liquidity”) to troubled institutions?

 

Xi: I’m available to consult if you want to do it “Bernanke Style”!

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Money for nothin is western decadence. Chinese stimulus means the under employed get sent to salt mines (or perhaps rare earth mines) with some regular whipping until morale improves.

[Spekulatius]

BILD is not a credible source, they just make stuff up and have been doing this for 50 years at least.

 

Right now General Winter is going to slow everything down. Russia may have 4 x the soldiers,  but they are also losing 4x the soldier right now, probably about 200k casualties/ year. Sure they can keep it up for a couple of years but their economy and demographic damage borders on ruin.

 

Next year, they have to combat a Ukrainian Air Force bolstered by F16’s. Ammo won’t be an issue then either, there is enough production online by then to keep up with consumption.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

 

[formthirteen]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

BILD is not a credible source, they just make stuff up and have been doing this for 50 years at least.

 

Yes, this is just BILD's opinion at this point. Scared leaders is a fact though: https://ip-quarterly.com/en/whos-afraid-ukraines-victory

 

Quote

Exaggerated fear of escalation meant too much attention being paid to the Kremlin’s supposed “red lines”: from sending any military aid at all to Ukraine, to sending heavy weapons and now, seemingly, Ukraine retaking all of its territory and thus “winning.” Yet crossing these red lines has seen no escalation—because NATO has effective deterrence against Russia. Rather it has been when the allies have self-deterred, succumbing to the Kremlin’s attempts at reflexive control, that we have created the space into which the Putin regime has aggressively moved.

 

Quote

 

Most pertinently, if the US proceeds with its bloc formation against China and other autocracies, it will expect its allies to effectively choose sides and take commensurate actions, including on military contribution, trade, and international ordering. Failing to account for this possibility risks leaving Germany exposed and again having to endure changes wrought on it by others rather than taking strategic ownership of and shaping those changes in advance.

This dangerous view of the future, therefore, not only draws questionable lessons from history but also manifests itself in cautious hedging that fails to learn from the Zeitenwende. It would be far better for Scholz to commit unequivocally to a Ukrainian victory and to playing a fuller part in delivering the triumph of democracies over autocracies that would better serve Germany’s values as well as its interests.

 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

I was chatting over Thanksgiving with a friend in the foreign relations community and he flipped some US foreign comms links from 2008 that came out via wikileaks that might make interesting reading to those interested. I hadnt read them before.

 

• "NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA'S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES"

 

- https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html

 

• "RUSSIAN OPPOSITION TO UKRAINIAN NATO MAP UNCHANGED"-

 

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW147_a.html

 

• "RUSSIA "LOSES" BUCHAREST"

 

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW1090_a.html

 

 

Finally he suggested I pick up this book from the US Ambassador to Russia from the late 2000's- William J Burns 

The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal released in 2019-

https://www.amazon.com/Back-Channel-American-Diplomacy-Renewal/dp/0525508864

 

In the book apparently is a message Burns sent to then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in 2008 which I think helps put in context the reason why Russia is not throwing in the towel in Ukraine any time soon even if Putin mysteriously died or was overthrown. Ukrainian non-nato membership & its place in Russia’s national security architecture is dogma in the Russian foreign policy establishment. Putin maybe change but that principal won’t.

 

“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” -

William J. Burn's ,US Ambassador to Russia cable to Condoleeza Rice

 

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Parsad]

On 11/24/2023 at 1:41 PM, crs223 said:

Doesn’t CCP know that these problems can be solved by distributing printed money (“liquidity”) to troubled institutions?

 

Xi: I’m available to consult if you want to do it “Bernanke Style”!

 

 

 

Bernanke's helicopter windfall was necessary to avoid a global meltdown and a possible collapse of the entire financial system.  

 

Trump and Biden's helicopter windfalls (and you can include Trudeau and most European countries) weren't as necessary.  

 

Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

Bernanke's helicopter windfall was necessary to avoid a global meltdown and a possible collapse of the entire financial system.  

 

Trump and Biden's helicopter windfalls (and you can include Trudeau and most European countries) weren't as necessary.  

 

Cheers!

Bernanke never helicoptered money. Bernanke gave money to banks by the way of easy credit (TARP) but never sent checks to the average Joe which is what helicopter money means. That happened during the pandemic under Trump and a Biden. We can argue if it was necessary or not but the money kept flowing after the pandemics was essentially over and that caused inflation.

[brobro777]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Bernanke never helicoptered money. Bernanke gave money to banks by the way of easy credit (TARP) but never sent checks to the average Joe which is what helicopter money means. That happened during the pandemic under Trump and a Biden. We can argue if it was necessary or not but the money kept flowing after the pandemics was essentially over and that caused inflation.

yea it wasn’t just checks but also a lot of people in places like Los Angeles not paying rent for 3 years, on top of no student loan payments. That’s a lotta tax free money baby, a lot 

 

 

[Parsad]

On 11/25/2023 at 7:36 PM, Spekulatius said:

Bernanke never helicoptered money. Bernanke gave money to banks by the way of easy credit (TARP) but never sent checks to the average Joe which is what helicopter money means. That happened during the pandemic under Trump and a Biden. We can argue if it was necessary or not but the money kept flowing after the pandemics was essentially over and that caused inflation.

 

I was referencing the cartoon, which suggested that Bernanke was dropping money from a helicopter, and was defending his actions.  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

As if the country isen't already being tested. Imagine being in a trench under these weather conditions [, Russian or Ukrainian ... - doesn't matter].

 

 

[cubsfan]

On 11/25/2023 at 10:40 AM, changegonnacome said:

I was chatting over Thanksgiving with a friend in the foreign relations community and he flipped some US foreign comms links from 2008 that came out via wikileaks that might make interesting reading to those interested. I hadnt read them before.

 

• "NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA'S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES"

 

- https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html

 

• "RUSSIAN OPPOSITION TO UKRAINIAN NATO MAP UNCHANGED"-

 

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW147_a.html

 

• "RUSSIA "LOSES" BUCHAREST"

 

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW1090_a.html

 

 

Finally he suggested I pick up this book from the US Ambassador to Russia from the late 2000's- William J Burns 

The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal released in 2019-

https://www.amazon.com/Back-Channel-American-Diplomacy-Renewal/dp/0525508864

 

In the book apparently is a message Burns sent to then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in 2008 which I think helps put in context the reason why Russia is not throwing in the towel in Ukraine any time soon even if Putin mysteriously died or was overthrown. Ukrainian non-nato membership & its place in Russia’s national security architecture is dogma in the Russian foreign policy establishment. Putin maybe change but that principal won’t.

 

“Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” -

William J. Burn's ,US Ambassador to Russia cable to Condoleeza Rice

 

 

It may be a redline for Putin, but he sure is paying dearly now. He probably got the message that anymore shenanigans with other European nations will be even more costly. 
 

It’s unfortunate that events had to go this far for Russia’s neighbors to wake up. Better late than never, but much more costly.

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

It may be a redline for Putin, but he sure is paying dearly now.

 

The most important lesson of these internals comms make for anyone looking at the situation and thinking about the future of the conflict - is that irrespective of Putin......the Russian establishment more broadly cares deeply about Ukraine when they think of Russia's security architecture. It is as the US Ambassador to Russia said - the "brightest of red lines" for the Russian establishment.....Putin could die tomorrow and he is very very likely to be replaced by a leader with similar or even greater desire to dominant and control Ukraine/Belarus/Georgia for security reasons.

 

Its a point I made earlier in this thread and one that will become very very important as we lap the two year anniversary of the invasion with support already being questioned in Western capitals........and that is the question of staying power, perseverance & strategic importance.......and I'm more convinced than ever that Russia's perseverance around Ukrainian neutrality vis a vis NATO is effectively infinite given its strategic importance to them.

 

Infinite in the same way that the Taliban's perseverance to retake control of Afghanistan was - in the short run military might matters most..... the US controlled Afghanistan for 20yrs......in the long run perseverance matters most (the Taliban retook control in a matter of days once the US hightailed it out of there)......if we assume Russia and Ukraine's perseverance is equal as both are equally concerned with their security/survival.....then its a question of military might......Ukraine absent exogenous support, over time, is in trouble for this reason and will likely end up compromising on almost all fronts (EU/NATO/Oblasts).....the question now in my mind is the level of Ukrainian compromise required to bring things to a sustainable peace that will allow Ukraine to re-build and when is the optimal time to do that.

Edited November 27, 2023 by changegonnacome