Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

Sounds like Hitler in his bunker 1944/45:

 

[Xerxes]

These are very high consumption rate for Ukrainian air defense, if the classified documents can be believed.  
 

personally I think the media didn’t do any favours to Ukraine by turning them into superheroes and Marvel characters, keeping pressure off to re-supply. 
 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-may-run-out-of-air-defenses-by-may-leaked-pentagon-documents-warn-b96b0655
 

“So far, Ukraine has been successful in denying Russia the ability to use its manned aircraft deep inside Ukraine largely because of its network of Soviet-vintage long-range air-defense systems, primarily S-300 and Buk, which can intercept targets at altitudes above 20,000 feet. However, according to a secret purported Pentagon slide dated Feb. 28, Ukraine will have completely depleted its stock of Buk missiles by April 13, and of S-300 missiles by May 3, at current consumption rates.”

 

“Ukraine’s S-300 batteries were expending roughly 200 missiles a month, while Buk batteries fired about 69 missiles a month, the document said. Nasams and Iris-T expended a combined 64 missiles a month.“

 

I also like to recommend this Oddlot podcast episode. It is amazing. Looks at the optics of the war. What we are doing wrong. There is a lot of anti-Russian pow-wow* coming from Western media. Cut the crap. I agree with the podcast guest speaker.  

Edit: * before anyone gets excited, we are talking about Russian people, culture and history not The Kremlin 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000600529914

Edited April 10, 2023 by Xerxes

[shhughes1116]

5 hours ago, Xerxes said:

These are very high consumption rate for Ukrainian air defense, if the classified documents can be believed.  
 

personally I think the media didn’t do any favours to Ukraine by turning them into superheroes and Marvel characters, keeping pressure off to re-supply. 
 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-may-run-out-of-air-defenses-by-may-leaked-pentagon-documents-warn-b96b0655
 

“So far, Ukraine has been successful in denying Russia the ability to use its manned aircraft deep inside Ukraine largely because of its network of Soviet-vintage long-range air-defense systems, primarily S-300 and Buk, which can intercept targets at altitudes above 20,000 feet. However, according to a secret purported Pentagon slide dated Feb. 28, Ukraine will have completely depleted its stock of Buk missiles by April 13, and of S-300 missiles by May 3, at current consumption rates.”

 

“Ukraine’s S-300 batteries were expending roughly 200 missiles a month, while Buk batteries fired about 69 missiles a month, the document said. Nasams and Iris-T expended a combined 64 missiles a month.“

I think that timing aligns with the expected arrival of the Patriot systems and the Samp/t from Italy and France.  The long lead time for the Patriot systems and samp/t systems - lots of training i guess - suggests that NATO has been planning for this eventuality for quite some time, so maybe that suggests there is a kernel of truth in the leaked documents.

 

Part of me wonders if the leaked documents are a misdirection from the U.S. A little bit of truth, and a little bit of BS, intended to confuse the Russians in advance of the counter-offensive.

 

[backtothebeach]

20 minutes ago, shhughes1116 said:

Part of me wonders if the leaked documents are a misdirection from the U.S.

Thinking the same. The way this was immediately plastered all over mainstream media, CNN, The Guardian, etc. Kind of suspicious.

[Xerxes]

There is certainly a complex cat and mouse game of deception, double-deception being played.

 

Yet, would U.S. leak classified documents showing its own spying of its allies (yes, not exactly news but still) plus potentially revealing how deep its intelligence network is in Russia ... all in a bid to fool the Russians to believe some S300 consumption rate, and to have them somehow commit their air assets into a trap !!

 

 

 

The plot thickens. A news story that doesn't tell you anything.

Ukraine alters counter-offensive plans after document leak - CNN | Reuters 

 

Where is this Scotch on the Rocks Koffman dude, when we need him to cut the bullshit.

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

I think there is a good amount of deception going on, especially when you keep in mind that the first Kharkiv counter offensive mostly surprised the Russians.

I do think the Ukraine counteroffensive probably starts in the next 4 weeks. The next few month certainly are the sweet spot, because the Russian army is about to burn through the first wave of 300k recruits from last fall, given their current attrition rate. Putin made the mistake to hold off too long on the second wave of recruitment, which just about to get started and too late to plug holes in the frontline, if Ukraine indeed starts their spring offensive soon.

Russia needs at 300k of recruits annually just to maintain the status quo on the frontline, given their likely "consumption rate".

Edited April 11, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

^^ your post implies 300,000 or so have already become incapacitated.
 

Here is an alternative scenario: 

 

after the 300,000 mobilization last year and realizing the mediocre state of hardware needed to equip such a force, the so called Russian winter offensive was downgraded to a few token major stories, capped by the limitation of their hardware.  
 

most of the force sits behind the line as reserves, uncommitted, until a clear view of Ukrainian offensive presents itself, where it can throw itself against it. Wether it can do any good or not, remains to be seen. 
 

I think western point of view, since the 2022 Russian debacle, has a baseline assumption built into it that Russian general staff can only do stupid things. Just imagine that in 2021, the same Western point of view had assumed Russia will roll over eastern Ukraine.  
 

Beware of pendulum biases 

[Dinar]

https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-738940

 

Meanwhile, Ukrainians are busy glorifying Nazis.  Could not ask for a better gift to Putin, plays straight into his narrative for domestic consumption, and of course gives those who do not want to see their tax dollars/euros/pounds given to Ukraine plenty of ammunition.  

[Xerxes]

Doesn’t matter as long as western supplier of capital and weapons is not bothered. And they won’t be as they are indoctrinated by the media:

 

“For 2022 and going forward, until further notice, these are your bad guys… these are your good guys, … and this is Captain America, … these are your toys, hate and love them accordingly”

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-738940

 

Meanwhile, Ukrainians are busy glorifying Nazis.  Could not ask for a better gift to Putin, plays straight into his narrative for domestic consumption, and of course gives those who do not want to see their tax dollars/euros/pounds given to Ukraine plenty of ammunition.  

 

 

There are probably less Neo Nazis in Ukraine as a percentage of population than in the US or Germany for that matter:

 

In the 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election the coalition of Svoboda and the other extreme-right political parties in Ukraine―National Corps, the Governmental Initiative of Yarosh, and the Right Sector―won only 2.15% of the vote combined and failed to pass the 5% threshold.^[5][6] No far-right parties gained seats in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament), as they all failed to win any single-mandate constituency seat.^[6]

[Xerxes]

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/leaked-intelligence-document-shows-egypt-012519337.html

[mcliu]

5 hours ago, Dinar said:

https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-738940

 

Meanwhile, Ukrainians are busy glorifying Nazis.  Could not ask for a better gift to Putin, plays straight into his narrative for domestic consumption, and of course gives those who do not want to see their tax dollars/euros/pounds given to Ukraine plenty of ammunition.  

Pretty clear by now that Western governments are fine with arming extremist groups as long as they're fighting on our side.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/ukraine-has-nazi-problem-vladimir-putin-s-denazification-claim-war-ncna1290946

https://forward.com/opinion/416751/why-does-no-one-care-that-neo-nazis-are-gaining-power-in-ukraine/

 

Btw, they canned this street rename for obvious reasons.

https://www.nysun.com/article/kyivs-mayor-quashes-citys-strange-attempt-to-rename-street-after-a-ukrainian-nazi-collaborator

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

 

 

There are probably less Neo Nazis in Ukraine as a percentage of population than in the US or Germany for that matter:

 

In the 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election the coalition of Svoboda and the other extreme-right political parties in Ukraine―National Corps, the Governmental Initiative of Yarosh, and the Right Sector―won only 2.15% of the vote combined and failed to pass the 5% threshold.^[5][6] No far-right parties gained seats in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament), as they all failed to win any single-mandate constituency seat.^[6]

Spek, you miss my point, it is an own goal that Ukraine has just scored.  

As for voting or not, it is hard to compare far right parties across countries - for instance far right is a lot more popular in areas with large immigration.  Also, can you imagine Munich city council renaming Mozartstrasse into Ernst Rohmstrasse?

[Xerxes]

Can't make this shit up !

 

Pentagon leak traced to video game chat group users arguing over war in Ukraine (msn.com)

[Xerxes]

No surprise there.

 

Ukraine war: Leak shows Western special forces on the ground

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065.amp

 

Next time a reporter ask during a Pentagon press briefing, is NATO Article 5 is triggered because of some drone getting fuel dumped on it, or some missile accidentally hitting Poland, that reporter is going to get a slap by me.  
 

It is war. The charade of NATO Article 5 is convenient both for Washington and the Kremlin and both sides will uphold it. Beyond the charade, it is full scale war and anything goes. 

[Pelagic]

4 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

No surprise there.

 

Ukraine war: Leak shows Western special forces on the ground

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065.amp

 

Next time a reporter ask during a Pentagon press briefing, is NATO Article 5 is triggered because of some drone getting fuel dumped on it, or some missile accidentally hitting Poland, that reporter is going to get a slap by me.  
 

It is war. The charade of NATO Article 5 is convenient both for Washington and the Kremlin and both sides will uphold it. Beyond the charade, it is full scale war and anything goes. 

 

Isn't the likely explanation for this the various VIP visits where special forces are involved in planning and security for the visit? Seems a bit of a stretch to think the US or UK is sending special forces teams to fight Russian troops while at the same time refusing to provide Ukraine fighter planes or longer range munitions for fear of escalation. 

[Xerxes]

2 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

 

Isn't the likely explanation for this the various VIP visits where special forces are involved in planning and security for the visit? Seems a bit of a stretch to think the US or UK is sending special forces teams to fight Russian troops while at the same time refusing to provide Ukraine fighter planes or longer range munitions for fear of escalation. 

I don’t really have an answer.
 

But I have no doubt that US special forces were/are operating there since the early days of the war. And even before. That said I don’t think there are direct engagement to keep the plausible deniability. Same way Russian pilots flew Russian MIGs painted with Korean insignia in the Korean War. 
 

everybody knows the charade. But nonetheless, both sides agree to keep the charade, as long as it is covert. 

[Castanza]

They are likely there to train troops. Unconventional warfare is what they do best and training up troops from unconventional backgrounds is their bread and butter. Ukrainian forces have been struggling with medical triage and communication. Both two things SOF excel at. US SOF has operated in that region for decades already so it’s not really surprising. Typical ODA is a 12 man team so it seems even more likely thats what it is with maybe two additional heads to report two. If they were there to kick down doors it likely wouldn’t be SOF units but more likely Spec Ops units like the SEALs. Seems like direct action would be a poor use of those multi million dollar troops though so I’d keep my guess with the training side. 

[cubsfan]

France cozying up to China not a great development for Taiwan. The US needs to count on Europe for a united defense against China. Biden fiddles in Ireland while Rome burns.

[Castanza]

10 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

France cozying up to China not a great development for Taiwan. The US needs to count on Europe for a united defense against China. Biden fiddles in Ireland while Rome burns.

 

Haven't seen anyone mention Buffett dumping his TSM shares yet. Seems to be more open to the idea that conflict could arise. Maybe nothing more than just hedging his portfolio risk. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ I think it’s a continuation of the US being tested by friends and foe alike. They watch a humiliating withdrawal in Afghanistan, then send spy balloons with no reaction. They see the US tear up the nuclear ban in Iran. Hell, even the Saudis and Israel, our strong allies are breaking ranks.
 

China just take taking it all in…

Edited April 13, 2023 by cubsfan

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, cubsfan said:

France cozying up to China not a great development for Taiwan. The US needs to count on Europe for a united defense against China. Biden fiddles in Ireland while Rome burns.

A German minister on DW/ TV poured cold water over that one and stated that Macron's diplomatic adventure was not sanctioned by Germany or the rest of the EU for that matter. He has embarrassed himself.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Spekulatius

[boilermaker75]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

A German minister on DW/ TV poured cold water over that one and stated that Macron's diplomatic adventure was not sanction by Germany or the rest of the EU for that matter. He has embarrassed himself.

 

Macron needs to visit this site in his own country to educate himself on who are France's allies.

[John Hjorth]

Somehow, this last post of yours hit a nerve at me, Mike [ @boilermaker75 ],

 

My personal biggest worries related to the conflict and all its ramifications, as of right now, and ordered :

 

How to stop the meaningsless loss of so many lives,

How to stop the meaningsless loss of all kind of infrastructure, homes etc., &

How to get the adoption of Sweden in Nato on the fly. [If some of my fellow CoBF members don't understand the importance of Sweden in this respect, just look up an updated map for the NATO area in the Nordics. It is about protecting the integrity of Finland.]

Edited April 14, 2023 by John Hjorth

[mcliu]