Political Posts

[Dinar]

24 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

a) Everyone knows this. The biggest increase in European security came when the USSR collapsed and instead of NATO facing a roughly 2-1 disadvantage in divisions, things have switched to a roughly 2-1 advantage. The problem is that if the Ukraine falls, that advantage diminishes significantly. As Putin moves more former republics under his control, our edge diminishes more.

 

b) Congress will go along. The only people in congress against supporting Ukraine are a small minority of whackos like Hawley, Paul, Boebert, Gosar, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

 

c) Western Europe isn't part of the US, everyone knows that. Like Puerto Rico they are US protectorates that owe their freedoms to the US and the trillions we've spent since 1942 protecting them while they coasted along barely spending anything on defense.

 

d) China has committed very few acts of military aggression over the last 150 years. The last time it invaded someone, it got its butt kicked by Vietnam in the 1970s. Russia has constantly been invading its neighbors for hundreds of years.  

Not everyone in Congress received bags of cash the way Biden did via Burisma.  Calling people you disagree wackos is not a way to convince people that you are right.  Have you polled Congress?  Henry Kissinger is a wacko too?

 

I think that you are drastically mistaken regarding the support Ukraine has among the American public and Congress.  How about this slogan?  Instead of giving $45bn for Ukraine cut personal income taxes by 3%.    I bet that would pass by a big margin in a nationwide referendum.

 

Divisions do not determine much - look at Germans in WWII, USSR vs Finland, US vs Iraq, US vs North Vietnam, US vs China/North Korea in the Korean War or every Arab-Israeli War.  

 

Who cares what Russia did 150 years ago?  Mongols conquered half the world in 1200s and is anyone afraid of them now? Alexander the Great did quite a bit who is afraid of Macedonia now?   I am just quaking in my boots at the fear of Italian invasion, after all Romans waged wars of aggression for 1000 years!  Are you busy learning Italian?

 

Russia is a paper tiger.  China wants to avenge past wrongs - loss of Siberia to Russia, Taiwan, et all.  Listen and read what President Xi and company say.  Look at them muscling India.  

 

In any case, in my opinion, the best outcome here for everyone involved is a peace treaty or a truce.  In a continued war, nobody wins, and Russia where a number of village have neither electricity nor gas can suffer way more than we in the US or Europe will agree to.   Look at all of the "accidents" that keep happening to the US electricity grid and substations.  We are very vulnerable.  

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

Not everyone in Congress received bags of cash the way Biden did via Burisma.  Calling people you disagree wackos is not a way to convince people that you are right.  Have you polled Congress?  Henry Kissinger is a wacko too?

 

I think that you are drastically mistaken regarding the support Ukraine has among the American public and Congress.  How about this slogan?  Instead of giving $45bn for Ukraine cut personal income taxes by 3%.    I bet that would pass by a big margin in a nationwide referendum.

 

Divisions do not determine much - look at Germans in WWII, USSR vs Finland, US vs Iraq, US vs North Vietnam, US vs China/North Korea in the Korean War or every Arab-Israeli War.  

 

Who cares what Russia did 150 years ago?  Mongols conquered half the world in 1200s and is anyone afraid of them now? Alexander the Great did quite a bit who is afraid of Macedonia now?   I am just quaking in my boots at the fear of Italian invasion, after all Romans waged wars of aggression for 1000 years!  Are you busy learning Italian?

 

Russia is a paper tiger.  China wants to avenge past wrongs - loss of Siberia to Russia, Taiwan, et all.  Listen and read what President Xi and company say.  Look at them muscling India.  

 

In any case, in my opinion, the best outcome here for everyone involved is a peace treaty or a truce.  In a continued war, nobody wins, and Russia where a number of village have neither electricity nor gas can suffer way more than we in the US or Europe will agree to.   Look at all of the "accidents" that keep happening to the US electricity grid and substations.  We are very vulnerable.  

 

A peace treaty can't be signed until after Russia withdraws from Crimea and the Donbas, otherwise it would be a disaster. Russian leaders know that in negotiations everything they get is a win.

 

If Russia stops fighting, the war ends.

 

If Ukraine stops fighting, it ceases to exist.

 

 

[Dinar]

21 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

A peace treaty can't be signed until after Russia withdraws from Crimea and the Donbas, otherwise it would be a disaster. Russian leaders know that in negotiations everything they get is a win.

 

If Russia stops fighting, the war ends.

 

If Ukraine stops fighting, it ceases to exist.

 

 

You are being melodramatic and choose to ignore history, Russia does not have the troops to subjugate Ukraine, particularly in light of probable guerrilla movement.

There is no way in hell that any Russian leader will give up Crimea (look up the history of the place - it was never part of Crimea until it was gifted by Khruschev, himself a Ukrainian, in 1954), and if that prevents an armistice, then I am very sorry for Ukrainians, since the war will continue and Western support will dry up.  

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-28/-1-3-trillion-china-housing-crackdown-hasn-t-fixed-unaffordable-property-market?srnd=premium-europe

 

China’s challenge is particularly daunting, even for an authoritarian regime with plenty of levers to pull. Home prices in Beijing and Shanghai have jumped tenfold and twelvefold, respectively, this century, according to government statistics, after the economic opening prompted more people to park their life savings in real estate rather than in stocks or other investments. The ratio of median home prices to income surged to more than 25 at the end of 2021 in Beijing, compared with about 20 in Hong Kong and just seven in the US, according to research from Nordea Bank Abp. Nationally, the ratio in China improved slightly last year to 9.1 from 9.2 in 2020, accord to E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings Ltd., a real estate firm. In most Chinese cities, income is nowhere close to keeping pace with the cost of housing—a problem that’s felt in many countries but is particularly acute in the world’s second-largest economy. In Qian’s home of Shenzhen, an apartment typically costs 40 times the average annual salary. That’s quadruple the relative price in cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco, according to separate data from E-House and Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. In Shanghai, China’s business and finance hub, a 950-square-foot, two-bedroom condo sells for almost $725,000. For about that price, a buyer could snap up a one-bedroom unit in Manhattan, where the average disposable income is more than six times higher.

 

More than two years later, China’s efforts to reduce prices—or at least halt the increases—have had limited success. New-home prices fell for the 15th-straight month in November. Yet most of those dips have been too small to make much of a difference. November’s drop of 0.25% in 70 cities was typical: None of the pullbacks has been greater than 0.40%. That steady drip of declines—more than 3% over 15 months—compares with much sharper plunges in other markets as global interest rates surge. Prices in Toronto are off 18% from their peak, while Sydney is down 11%. Sweden’s market is forecast to drop by a fifth from a March peak, according to Nordea estimates. There are signs of steeper declines in some parts of China. An existing-home price index tracked by KE Holdings Inc. shows that values in the less regulated market dropped 7.5% in August from a year earlier. In Hangzhou, near tech giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s headquarters, existing-home prices are off more than 15% from a peak last year, agents say. The meager national declines, even as sales collapse, partly reflect the quirks of China’s housing market that keep a floor on prices. Some 90% of city dwellers own their homes, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. research, compared with about 65% in the US. Ownership is so ingrained, a single man or woman has a much better chance of finding a match if they own a condo. 

 

In fact, Beijing may prefer a steady price decline to a sudden crash that could wreak havoc on the financial sector and spark an even deeper crisis, says Orlik, author of China: The Bubble That Never Pops. China is trying to manage down the oversupply of homes as well as prices to bring the market in balance, he says. In other words, a “controlled deflation” of the bubble rather than a dramatic burst. “If you want to improve affordability without having a systemic crisis, you don’t actually want house prices to fall. You want them to stabilize and incomes to rise,” Orlik says. “If prices fall 25% and everyone sells their houses, then you have a systemic crisis.” China is even trying to limit price declines in some areas. Since the second half of last year, at least 20 small cities have blocked developers from slashing prices by more than 15%. That prompted an industry group in the province of Guangdong to petition authorities to loosen restrictions to boost sales, people familiar with the matter say.

 

It’s hard to overstate the importance of real estate to China’s economy, making the crackdown so painful for so many. With estimates ranging from $2.4 trillion for the new-home market to $52 trillion for existing homes and inventory, the size of the sector was twice that of the US’s in 2019. Real estate accounts for about a quarter of domestic output and almost 80% of household assets. Some 100,000 companies operate in the sector, providing 27 million jobs as the nation’s second-biggest employer. Headcount shrank by 15% in the first half of 2022 alone among the 28 publicly listed developers that disclose staff levels, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Those still employed face steep pay cuts, usually 30% to 50%, says Andy, a 36-year-old who works for a developer in Guangdong and asked that his full name not be used. His monthly mortgage obligations, at about 40,000 yuan, take up nearly 70% of his income. He’s now trying to unload one of his three homes. “I’m willing to sell it as long as I can break even,” he says. “But it’s been a tough sell.” Suppliers are also paying the price, with many fighting to get repaid by Evergrande and others. From construction material suppliers to lunch box providers, thousands of small companies are feeling the pinch from the record housing slump. “Putting on the brakes is one thing, but slamming the brakes on and making the car engine dead is another,” says Qin, a project contractor who’s spent 13 months trying to get paid. He also declined to give his full name. “Evergrande has a huge problem, but it should’ve been a ‘soft landing’ rather than what’s happening right now.” The modest price declines have done little to boost demand, which will be key to reviving the economy into 2023. CMB International Capital Corp. foresees a 30% slump in apartment and house sales this year, topping the 22% drop during the 2008 financial crisis. Morgan Stanley doesn’t expect a sales recovery until the second half of next year.

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by UK

[Dinar]

45 minutes ago, UK said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-28/-1-3-trillion-china-housing-crackdown-hasn-t-fixed-unaffordable-property-market?srnd=premium-europe

 

China’s challenge is particularly daunting, even for an authoritarian regime with plenty of levers to pull. Home prices in Beijing and Shanghai have jumped tenfold and twelvefold, respectively, this century, according to government statistics, after the economic opening prompted more people to park their life savings in real estate rather than in stocks or other investments. The ratio of median home prices to income surged to more than 25 at the end of 2021 in Beijing, compared with about 20 in Hong Kong and just seven in the US, according to research from Nordea Bank Abp. Nationally, the ratio in China improved slightly last year to 9.1 from 9.2 in 2020, accord to E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings Ltd., a real estate firm. In most Chinese cities, income is nowhere close to keeping pace with the cost of housing—a problem that’s felt in many countries but is particularly acute in the world’s second-largest economy. In Qian’s home of Shenzhen, an apartment typically costs 40 times the average annual salary. That’s quadruple the relative price in cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco, according to separate data from E-House and Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. In Shanghai, China’s business and finance hub, a 950-square-foot, two-bedroom condo sells for almost $725,000. For about that price, a buyer could snap up a one-bedroom unit in Manhattan, where the average disposable income is more than six times higher.

 

More than two years later, China’s efforts to reduce prices—or at least halt the increases—have had limited success. New-home prices fell for the 15th-straight month in November. Yet most of those dips have been too small to make much of a difference. November’s drop of 0.25% in 70 cities was typical: None of the pullbacks has been greater than 0.40%. That steady drip of declines—more than 3% over 15 months—compares with much sharper plunges in other markets as global interest rates surge. Prices in Toronto are off 18% from their peak, while Sydney is down 11%. Sweden’s market is forecast to drop by a fifth from a March peak, according to Nordea estimates. There are signs of steeper declines in some parts of China. An existing-home price index tracked by KE Holdings Inc. shows that values in the less regulated market dropped 7.5% in August from a year earlier. In Hangzhou, near tech giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s headquarters, existing-home prices are off more than 15% from a peak last year, agents say. The meager national declines, even as sales collapse, partly reflect the quirks of China’s housing market that keep a floor on prices. Some 90% of city dwellers own their homes, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. research, compared with about 65% in the US. Ownership is so ingrained, a single man or woman has a much better chance of finding a match if they own a condo. 

 

In fact, Beijing may prefer a steady price decline to a sudden crash that could wreak havoc on the financial sector and spark an even deeper crisis, says Orlik, author of China: The Bubble That Never Pops. China is trying to manage down the oversupply of homes as well as prices to bring the market in balance, he says. In other words, a “controlled deflation” of the bubble rather than a dramatic burst. “If you want to improve affordability without having a systemic crisis, you don’t actually want house prices to fall. You want them to stabilize and incomes to rise,” Orlik says. “If prices fall 25% and everyone sells their houses, then you have a systemic crisis.” China is even trying to limit price declines in some areas. Since the second half of last year, at least 20 small cities have blocked developers from slashing prices by more than 15%. That prompted an industry group in the province of Guangdong to petition authorities to loosen restrictions to boost sales, people familiar with the matter say.

 

It’s hard to overstate the importance of real estate to China’s economy, making the crackdown so painful for so many. With estimates ranging from $2.4 trillion for the new-home market to $52 trillion for existing homes and inventory, the size of the sector was twice that of the US’s in 2019. Real estate accounts for about a quarter of domestic output and almost 80% of household assets. Some 100,000 companies operate in the sector, providing 27 million jobs as the nation’s second-biggest employer. Headcount shrank by 15% in the first half of 2022 alone among the 28 publicly listed developers that disclose staff levels, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Those still employed face steep pay cuts, usually 30% to 50%, says Andy, a 36-year-old who works for a developer in Guangdong and asked that his full name not be used. His monthly mortgage obligations, at about 40,000 yuan, take up nearly 70% of his income. He’s now trying to unload one of his three homes. “I’m willing to sell it as long as I can break even,” he says. “But it’s been a tough sell.” Suppliers are also paying the price, with many fighting to get repaid by Evergrande and others. From construction material suppliers to lunch box providers, thousands of small companies are feeling the pinch from the record housing slump. “Putting on the brakes is one thing, but slamming the brakes on and making the car engine dead is another,” says Qin, a project contractor who’s spent 13 months trying to get paid. He also declined to give his full name. “Evergrande has a huge problem, but it should’ve been a ‘soft landing’ rather than what’s happening right now.” The modest price declines have done little to boost demand, which will be key to reviving the economy into 2023. CMB International Capital Corp. foresees a 30% slump in apartment and house sales this year, topping the 22% drop during the 2008 financial crisis. Morgan Stanley doesn’t expect a sales recovery until the second half of next year.

 

A 950 sq foot condo in Manhattan would cost anywhere from $1MM to $5MM depending on location, condition and views.   Why is the writer comparing cost of a two bedroom to a cost of a one-bedroom?   Seems like sloppy/dishonest reporting.  

Also, how big are property taxes in China?  In Manhattan, they can easily = 2% of the value of the condo per year.   So if say property taxes in China = 0%, while in Manhattan they = 2% of the value per annum, that alone should justify 50%-60% higher prices in China vs Manhattan relative to income. 

[UK]

55 minutes ago, Dinar said:

A 950 sq foot condo in Manhattan would cost anywhere from $1MM to $5MM depending on location, condition and views.   Why is the writer comparing cost of a two bedroom to a cost of a one-bedroom?   Seems like sloppy/dishonest reporting.  

Also, how big are property taxes in China?  In Manhattan, they can easily = 2% of the value of the condo per year.   So if say property taxes in China = 0%, while in Manhattan they = 2% of the value per annum, that alone should justify 50%-60% higher prices in China vs Manhattan relative to income. 

 

I agree with your critique, but at the same time it is quite probable that China only at the start of all its real estate situation adjustment. Info also resonates with interview of Petis above, i.e. that sector and prices are still way above norm, their aproach is to do this slowly vs quickly, and demographics was not even mentioned in both cases. I think all this is important not only for China itself, but because of the size, for global economy also. Maybe that is the reason (optimistic) why Xi wanted to grab so much power in his hands in the first place:). Will be interesting to see how everything unfolds.

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by UK

[UK]

On 12/27/2022 at 6:29 PM, John Hjorth said:

The posts in this topic by @UK and @Dinar are to me a so frustrating read [, but thank you to you both for them!]. It's simply difficult to think about what to think, because propaganda is an information tool [weapon] used on both sides in the war.

 

Personally I think the baltic states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania are all in the same boat as Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany and Poland, because of the strategic importance of the Baltic Sea for everyone, including Russia.

 

It's a calamity and and a sh*t show, imposing a potential threat on our way of life and our future.

 

John, naturally I think about all this every day, since February and i am no way a big military expert, but I would like to share with you, perhaps overly optimistic, views. First, in the neat term I think Russia is incapable of any major conventional offense as they are even on defense in Ukraine. Furthermore, I read somewhere that they moved like 80-90 per cent of their battle ready personnel from Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg regions, including some serious equipment, like S-300 or S-400. I think it is highly unlikely they would open second front anywhere, but especially with NATO, in the near term. Even in Ukraine, today they lack basic ammo, like munitions for howitzers, there are videos online of Russian soldiers berating shamelessly Shoigu and Gerasimov for that. And it seems even in that front Ukrainians starting to gain advantage. Then situation in the Baltic region will improve substantially as soon as Sweden and Finland will be accepted to NATO, probably foregone conclusion. Also, just like with Ukraine, a year ago the line of thought was prevailing, that Baltic states or other countries there would be indefensible in case of Russian conventional attack, discussion was about days or weeks of possible resistance. Not anymore. Nobody today thinks it would be impossible to defend our self anymore. And lastly, our country just made its largest military purchase ever, there are plans to increase active personnel substantially and there are no hesitation to spend or do to whatever it takes to increase our defense capabilities substantially. Baltic states have vary little debt and we can afford a lot to spend and we will spend a lot I am sure. Poland alone, if what I read about their plans are true, will be enormous military force after 2-3 years, not to speak about Germany etc. So like I said, I am no expert at all, but I think a time when Russia could threaten region conventionally has ended. Probably never was, only perception. It seems Russia regime deliberately was weakening and kept its military weak, because of its own insecurities, not to speak about corruption. Ukraine fiasco just uncovered its true state. Maybe I am overly optimistic, but that is how I feel today and it is 180 opposite from a year ago or even 6 month ago:)

 

I agree with Dinar, that much bigger threat to US and the world is China. I have no strong opinion on China, but last year has shaken this idea of Munger, that China is much more civilized country etc. I still think it is, I mean the regime in China is I think perhaps way more civilized than the regime in Russia, but not so sure about this anymore:). I also think, that China and Russia may have enormous inherent tensions between them. Lastly, I have no idea if that is possible, but if somehow Russia and Belarus could become normal and pro western countries again (perhaps after some painful changes at the top), I think that would be wonderful. Would not bet on this, but one could have some dreams:)

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by UK

[SharperDingaan]

NATO has far more money than Russia, and much of the spend is just domestic recycling within their local arms industry. Weapon, missile, and bullet inventories need to be fired off, NATO reaps the benefit of replacement war time spending just as Russia does, the destruction remains in Ukraine, and armories update with better and more up to date replacements.

 

But like any good business, when costs > benefits, negotiate 'peace' (Feb-23 peace summit). The keys to power run the show (dictators playbook), and their mouthpieces execute ..... Most would expect the Ukraine to get everything back including the Crimea, a new Eastern European world-order 'agreement', and the early retirements of both leaders. The political solution.  

 

Political solutions take a while, but the result is stability for a good 10-30 years until the cycle repeats. Given that Europe averages at least one war every 70 years or so, 30 years of stability is not a bad outcome.

 

SD 

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, UK said:

 

I agree with your critique, but at the same time it is quite probable that China only at the start of all its real estate situation adjustment. Info also resonates with interview of Petis above, i.e. that sector and prices are still way above norm, their aproach is to do this slowly vs quickly, and demographics was not even mentioned in both cases. I think all this is important not only for China itself, but because of the size, for global economy also. Maybe that is the reason (optimistic) why Xi wanted to grab so much power in his hands in the first place:). Will be interesting to see how everything unfolds.

 

I don't even think you can "own" property in China. Everything is  a long term lease and at the end of the lease, the property reverts back to the government, unless the government extends the lease. Owning property in China is more like a ground lease. I could be wrong, but if I am not, the property prices in China are even more nuts.

In any case, with a bubble like this, there really isn't a good way out without crashing the economy. They can do it quickly (unlikely) or slowly like the Japanese did in 1990.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

19 hours ago, Dinar said:

Who cares what Russia did 150 years ago?  Mongols conquered half the world in 1200s and is anyone afraid of them now? Alexander the Great did quite a bit who is afraid of Macedonia now?   I am just quaking in my boots at the fear of Italian invasion, after all Romans waged wars of aggression for 1000 years!  Are you busy learning Italian?

 

All correct except the Italian example. Italy might be geographically located where the centre of Roman institutions were based, but I would hardly call them “heir to the Roman republic”. 
 

Italy as a unified kingdom created in the 19th century can definitely draw legacy and heritage from the many Italian kingdoms and republics (Genoa, Venice, twin kingdom of Sicily and Naples, Turin etc) but not the empire of Rome. Just as Iraq cannot draw heritage from its Babylonian past. 
 

To me, the heir to the Roman Empire, if any,  was the Ottoman Empire. Of course you had Moscow as the “third Rome”, The Habsburgs, Napoleonic empire and that of Charles V all seeking “Imperial” legitimacy as heir to Rome. 
 

Any of those above is far closer to Rome than the Italians or other post-476 AD Germanic kingdoms. I will definitely get the Italians angry with my post. 

[Dinar]

21 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

All correct except the Italian example. Italy might be geographically located where the centre of Roman institutions were based, but I would hardly call them “heir to the Roman republic”. 
 

Italy as a unified kingdom created in the 19th century can definitely draw legacy and heritage from the many Italian kingdoms and republics (Genoa, Venice, twin kingdom of Sicily and Naples, Turin etc) but not the empire of Rome. Just as Iraq cannot draw heritage from its Babylonian past. 
 

To me, the heir to the Roman Empire, if any,  was the Ottoman Empire. Of course you had Moscow as the “third Rome”, The Habsburgs, Napoleonic empire and that of Charles V all seeking “Imperial” legitimacy as heir to Rome. 
 

Any of those above is far closer to Rome than the Italians or other post-476 AD Germanic kingdoms. I will definitely get the Italians angry with my post. 

It is a pleasure to deal with an erudite debater.  Yes, my Italian teacher in high school had a hissy fit when I called Napoleon a Frenchman.  We can remove Italy and add the Germans, the French - from Louis the XI through Napoleon I.  The reason that I did not mention the Ottomans is that I think Erdogan and company would love to put on the hat of Mehmed II.  

 

The Hapsburgs were more in the mold of acquisition via marriage rather than war.  

[no_free_lunch]

18 hours ago, Dinar said:

You are being melodramatic and choose to ignore history, Russia does not have the troops to subjugate Ukraine, particularly in light of probable guerrilla movement.

There is no way in hell that any Russian leader will give up Crimea (look up the history of the place - it was never part of Crimea until it was gifted by Khruschev, himself a Ukrainian, in 1954), and if that prevents an armistice, then I am very sorry for Ukrainians, since the war will continue and Western support will dry up.  

 

He is not being melodramatic.  The country is at war and there is clearly an invasion under way.  Have you looked at a map lately of all the Russian forces in there?  Clearly it's an attempt to subjugate.  Poorly though out and executed, as is the norm for Russia, but clearly that attempt was made and is ongoing.

 

Guerilla movements can be put down by a determined opponent who is willing to use torture and murder.  It's been done before, by Russia in fact to Ukraine just 60 or so years ago.  They can do it again if they are willing to kill everyone they suspect. In fact that's exactly what they are doing in the areas they control, even as we speak.

[Xerxes]

13 hours ago, UK said:

 and i am no way a big military expert, but I would like to share with you, perhaps overly optimistic, views.

UK,

 

Don’t be shy. The so-called military experts get plenty wrong ALL the time. It is the military historians that get plenty right, as the latter is a backward-looking fact-based profession while the former is forward-looking profession, drawing from past biases and framework of the last war, while heavily ignoring the law of randomness.

 

If military expert were right all the time, all wars launched should be concluded swiftly as it was overseen by experts. And all the wars were the outcome was deemed unfavourable would not be launched. When politicians do not overwrite military leaders. 
 

it is like the whole market efficiency discussion. 

 

 

[sleepydragon]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I don't even think you can "own" property in China. Everything is  a long term lease and at the end of the lease, the property reverts back to the government, unless the government extends the lease. Owning property in China is more like a ground lease. I could be wrong, but if I am not, the property prices in China are even more nuts.

In any case, with a bubble like this, there really isn't a good way out without crashing the economy. They can do it quickly (unlikely) or slowly like the Japanese did in 1990.

except in US, you own the property as long as you pay property taxes. In china there’s no or little property tax. So if the house price remains the same, the Chinese deal is much better.

[UK]

https://www.dw.com/en/russian-lawmaker-dies-after-fall-in-indian-hotel/a-6422200

 

Antov's death is the latest in a string of mysterious deaths of Russian nationals and businessmen since the war in Ukraine. Alexander Buzakov, the director-general of a major Russian shipyard that specializes in building non-nuclear submarines died over the weekend, the shipyard announced in a statement without offering details. In September, Ivan Pechorin, the top manager for the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, was found dead in Vladivostok, a major Pacific port city in Russia. Russia media said Pechorin died after drowning near Cape Ignatyev in the Sea of Japan. Also in September, the chairman of Russia's largest private oil company Lukoil, Ravil Maganov, was found dead after falling out of a window. Russian media later reported he took his own life. In May, Alexander Subbotin, a former top manager of Lukoil, was found dead in a house near Moscow, according to Russian media. Other Russian businessmen and people with ties to Russia's military-industrial complex have also been reported dead in recent months.

 

Edited December 29, 2022 by UK

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/12/28/ukraines-women-snipers-take-the-fight-to-putin

 

Unlike men of conscription age, Ukrainian women are not barred from leaving the country. An initiative to extend the draft to women working in critical professions was due to be enacted last October, but it was postponed amid popular outcry. That means, for the time being at least, women who fight choose to do so voluntarily. That hasn’t stopped Ukraine’s armed forces taking on an increasingly female face. Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Anna Malyar, says there are now “at least 30,000” women soldiers serving in the army, or one in five of the official, pre-mobilised number. (The exact numbers in the army now are a closely guarded secret.) Most often, women soldiers fulfil back-line roles as medics, press officers, cooks, secret communications officers, or in the sensitive task of evacuating and treating bodies, dead or alive. But a growing number, at least 5,000, are performing front-line roles. Many dozens are snipers. The women trainees say they have faced resistance at every stage of their journey, usually from men who believed women are fundamentally unsuited to the sniping profession. “We’ve never sought an easy life,” says Phoenix, “but we’ve proven ourselves whenever the question is asked.” She says she is under no illusions about the dangers. Snipers occupy a particular spot in military psychology, and are singled out for demonstrative treatment if they are ever captured. Being female is unlikely to offer an advantage. “If a woman sniper is captured, she will be raped, humiliated, tortured, and then executed,” says Oksana. “A sniper should always be prepared to blow herself up with a grenade.”

[no_free_lunch]

On the women fighters, it is not surprising dear UK.  Some people, in any society, are naturally very brave and coupled with Russian atrocities it will draw them into the conflict.

 

To refute the white washing filth around Russia being there for some purpose other than to conquer and subjugate, see this article from UK intelligence.   Or of course, just use common sense and basic facts around the events at hand.

 

Quote

Russia had planned to take over Ukraine over 10 days and annex it by August this year, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) said.

..

The documents also revealed that Russia planned to capture Ukraine's power stations, airfields, water supplies, central bank and parliament - and that Russian special services were tasked with killing the Ukrainian leadership.

..

The invasion plan reportedly detailed plots to capture Ukraine's nuclear power plants in order to shelter Russian troops, gain control over the country's energy system, and potentially blackmail European countries with the risk of radiation pollution.

..

The Russian counterintelligence regime had compiled lists of some Ukrainians, RUSI said.

They were divided into four categories:

• Those who should be killed
• Those in need of suppression and intimidation
• Those considered neutral who should be encouraged to collaborate
• Those prepared to collaborate.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-captured-russian-documents-reveal-moscows-10-day-plan-to-take-over-the-country-and-kill-its-leaders-12759836

 

It all ties together, Ukrainians know the score, Russians support it but are not really willing to die despite all their bluster.  In the end, I suspect Russia will be forced to withdraw and will be that much more of a shittier and weaker country as a result of all of this.  The best part is that the west gets the top tier of the Russian population via immigration.

Edited December 30, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

War on the Rocks had another amazing episode this past Wednesday. No mumbo-jumbo. 

[UK]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

War on the Rocks had another amazing episode this past Wednesday. No mumbo-jumbo. 

 

Which one you have in mind? Is it posible to share a link? Thanks!

[Xerxes]

9 hours ago, UK said:

 

Which one you have in mind? Is it posible to share a link? Thanks!

 

there you go. Both of these episodes 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591512926

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591012314

 

[UK]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

there you go. Both of these episodes 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591512926

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000591012314

 

 

Thanks!

[John Hjorth]

Reuters [ December 31^th 2022] : Putin uses New Year address for wartime rallying cry to Russians .

 

*Shrug* Tell me about it. No mercy, sympathy, tolerance or understanding from me.

[UK]

https://kyivindependent.com/national/reznikov-tells-russians-they-have-one-week-left-before-borders-close

[Xerxes]

49 minutes ago, UK said:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/reznikov-tells-russians-they-have-one-week-left-before-borders-close

The Russian border were kept precisely open such that troublemakers, anti war folks, anti special military operations folks all leave. 
 

I think Kiev is trying its hand at propaganda, this time not so well.
 

I think Russia does not need more manpower (beyond the annual round up) but what it needs are munitions, artillery shells  etc. 

[ValueArb]