Political Posts

[formthirteen]

11 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I agree with Putin needing to save face to end the war.

 

I understand your viewpoint, but the easiest off-ramp is Russia leaving Ukraine and Crimea. Russia's propaganda machine is able to spin that as a victory to the people of Russia, for example, ”We were right, NATO attacked us but we are still here”.

 

Also, Russia does not respect any contracts or treaties, only power and force.

 

Putin is Russia. Invading and destabilizing neighbors is Russia's culture (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia). Removing Putin will not change that culture.

 

Basically, it's a war of memes and cultures:

A war of Borscht (see video):

No opinion on the war, other than ”it is what it is”.

Edited December 15, 2022 by formthirteen

[Luke]

China investing triple the amount of the Chips Act for semi development. As i see it this is a straight trade war act from the US trying to impair growth and competition for the global economy. Why cant China order EUV tools from ASML? Because of US national security? Where did china attack the US? The us has been on an imperial move, establishing naval bases all around east asia because of the ,,danger of china,,. 

 

Imagine if China establishes naval bases close to US, around the Caribbean. They would get nuked away

 

It is clear that the US fears china as a competitor for global domination. China is on their way to establish themselves in great ways to grow their country, investing in infrastructure all over the world etc. We see chinese imperialism happening every day. The US does the same in every way, maybe they are smarter in hiding it but i dont see big differences. Media biases and what not. 

 

Imagine if china opens up to the world, their businesses going global. The S&P 500 wouldnt outperform so hard anymore. Right now we saw how much chinese ETFs crashed. Imagine china producing chips, dram etc with EUV tools. Intel, Micron, AMD would all get severe competition. 

 

Amazon vs Alibaba. We have to big nations with huge great tech players. One of these nations is not allowed to play. 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

@Luca I can imagine this or that but Xi is in power for life and he believes in communism. So I think that’s what we are going to get from China. Communism is not good for shareholder returns. I don’t think it’s much more complicated than that.

[Luke]

29 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

@Luca I can imagine this or that but Xi is in power for life and he believes in communism. So I think that’s what we are going to get from China. Communism is not good for shareholder returns. I don’t think it’s much more complicated than that.

I disagree, he is not a straight out playbook communist. They are using all the advantages of markets with a top down approach to sometimes place ressources in underdeveloped segments. we never saw something like this system before. nobody knows how successful it will be. All of that combined with some sort of national/socialistic ideology elements, bit like north korea. The original ,,assignment,, of china being the center of the earth. 

 

The game is still playing out, pabrai also said it still might be okay for china investments. 

 

Its going to be an interesting decade. 

[Dinar]

4 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

I understand your viewpoint, but the easiest off-ramp is Russia leaving Ukraine and Crimea. Russia's propaganda machine is able to spin that as a victory to the people of Russia, for example, ”We were right, NATO attacked us but we are still here”.

 

Also, Russia does not respect any contracts or treaties, only power and force.

 

Putin is Russia. Invading and destabilizing neighbors is Russia's culture (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia). Removing Putin will not change that culture.

 

Basically, it's a war of memes and cultures:

A war of Borscht (see video):

No opinion on the war, other than ”it is what it is”.

Actually, no.  Neither Putin nor any other Russian leader will be able to sell leaving Crimea.    You are conveniently ignoring history.  Crimea was part of Russia for two centuries before it was transferred to Ukraine in 1954 by Khruschev (Ukrainian) to celebrate 300 year anniversary of Russia - Ukraine unification.  Also, eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine are very different.  Eastern Ukraine is very much like Russia while  Western Ukraine, a huge chunk of which like Lviv (Lemberg) was Austrian until 1917, is more nationalistic and closer to Poland and Austria.  Even in Soviet times, everyone spoke Ukrainian and did not want to speak Russian in Western Ukraine (Lviv, et all) while speaking Russian and not Ukrainian in the eastern part.  

The key to ending the war (assuming Putin is rational and just miscalculated) is to find a way for him to save face, so he can declare victory and leave Ukraine.  

As for Russia not respecting treaties and only respecting power and force, yes you are right.  Sadly, however this is not limited to Russia.  Germany, US, China, Japan and the list goes on.  

[formthirteen]

10 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Actually, no.  Neither Putin nor any other Russian leader will be able to sell leaving Crimea.    You are conveniently ignoring history.  Crimea was part of Russia for two centuries before it was transferred to Ukraine in 1954 by Khruschev (Ukrainian) to celebrate 300 year anniversary of Russia - Ukraine unification.  Also, eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine are very different.  Eastern Ukraine is very much like Russia while  Western Ukraine, a huge chunk of which like Lviv (Lemberg) was Austrian until 1917, is more nationalistic and closer to Poland and Austria.  Even in Soviet times, everyone spoke Ukrainian and did not want to speak Russian in Western Ukraine (Lviv, et all) while speaking Russian and not Ukrainian in the eastern part.  

The key to ending the war (assuming Putin is rational and just miscalculated) is to find a way for him to save face, so he can declare victory and leave Ukraine.  

As for Russia not respecting treaties and only respecting power and force, yes you are right.  Sadly, however this is not limited to Russia.  Germany, US, China, Japan and the list goes on.  

 

History is complex and everyone is ”conveniently" ignoring historical memes.

 

Everyone hopefully agrees that it was unnecessary to humiliate Germany after WW1. Russia was humiliated in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, but most of it was because of their own stupidity. This time it seems they are humiliating themselves again.

 

But maybe you're right, we could bow down to Russia and let ”Putin” take Sudetenland Crimea. Wait, don't forget to give him Eastern Ukraine, and what should we do about Southern Ukraine? Okay, let's give him Abkhazia and Transnistria too.

 

It seems Russia's meme writers (Pushkin, Putin, etc) are more powerful than international law.

[Dinar]

2 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

History is complex and everyone is ”conveniently" ignoring historical memes.

 

Everyone hopefully agrees that it was unnecessary to humiliate Germany after WW1. Russia was humiliated in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, but most of it was because of their own stupidity. This time it seems they are humiliating themselves again.

 

But maybe you're right, we could bow down to Russia and let ”Putin” take Sudetenland Crimea. Wait, don't forget to give him Eastern Ukraine, and what should we do about Southern Ukraine? Okay, let's give him Abkhazia and Transnistria too.

 

It seems Russia's meme writers (Pushkin, Putin, etc) are more powerful than international law.

Ok, when you compare Putin to Hitler, I know that further discussion is not productive.  Sandro from Chegem (Fazil Iskander) would laugh at you and your assertions regarding Abkhazia and Transnistria.  

[sleepydragon]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@Luca I can imagine this or that but Xi is in power for life and he believes in communism. So I think that’s what we are going to get from China. Communism is not good for shareholder returns. I don’t think it’s much more complicated than that.

 

Xi is certainly not going to be power for life .

Nobody except 90 year old farmers believe in communism in China nowadays. Xi and other leaders get their beliefs from reading Chinese history - confusious to be read by the people, and Xi reads ZiZhiTongJian

 

[formthirteen]

25 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Ok, when you compare Putin to Hitler, I know that further discussion is not productive.  Sandro from Chegem (Fazil Iskander) would laugh at you and your assertions regarding Abkhazia and Transnistria.  

 

You are correct. I will buy you a beer after the history books about this conflict have been written. We can discuss historical facts, sorry, I mean we can discuss the best memes from books and thought leaders. I'm interested in everyone's viewpoint.

Edited December 15, 2022 by formthirteen

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript

 

TE: Are your allies holding you back in any way from advancing on Crimea?
VZ: I can’t answer the question of whether they are holding back or not. I will simply state the facts. In order to reach the borders of Crimea, as of today we need to cover a distance of 84km to Melitopol. By the way, this is enough for us, because Melitopol would give us a full fire control of the land corridor, because from Melitopol we can already fire at the Crimean Isthmus, with the very same himars and so on. Why am I saying this to you? Because it goes back to my earlier point about resources. I can calculate, based on the task at hand, what kind of resource is needed to build combat capability.
We are talking about the scale of World War One…that is what Antony Radakin [Britain’s top soldier] told me. When I told him that the British Army fired a million shells in World War One, I was told, “We will lose Europe. We will have nothing to live on if you fire that many shells.” When they say, “You get 50,000 shells”, the people who count the money faint. The biggest problem is that they really don’t have it.
With this kind of resources I can’t conduct new big operations, even though we are working on one right now. It is on the way, but you don’t see it yet. We use a lot fewer shells.
I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 ifvs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd. But I can’t do it with two brigades. I get what I get, but it is less than what I need. It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers. We can and should take a lot more territory.
TE: What do you make of Russia’s mobilisation?
VZ: Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.

[sleepydragon]

https://pcaobus.org/news-events/news-releases/news-release-detail/pcaob-secures-complete-access-to-inspect-investigate-chinese-firms-for-first-time-in-history
 

 

[Xerxes]

@Dinar

 

Don't fight it. There is no use.

These mood swings come and go.

 

20 years ago, after 9/11, the talk in town was all about "muslim spreading islam by the sword". If you saw a bearded person, you needed to look at them suspiciously. Everyone suddenly became a history expert.

 

I, a persian, who actually has grievences for the islamic invasion of Persia, was utterly disgusted everyday-Westerner behaviour toward everyday-Arabs after 9/11.

 

Now 20 years later, Westerners literally fall over themselves to run (not fast enough) to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, Egypt and to do selfies. It is a process that needs to exhaust itself.

 

------------------------------------

EDIT @formthirteen This is not toward you at all. Just a general comment. Please dont take it the wrong way.

 

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

Don't worry about Putin saving face - he can stand tipsy with champagne in his golden hall blurting out unscripted whatever he wants. If need be, he can sell why he lost Crimea too to his fellow Russians , if indeed this is what happens.

 

They may not believe the story, but they will pretend to.

[Xerxes]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Don't worry about Putin saving face - he can stand tipsy with champagne in his golden hall blurting out unscripted whatever he wants. If need be, he can sell why he lost Crimea too to his fellow Russians , if indeed this is what happens.

 

They may not believe the story, but they will pretend to.

 

Like everything else ... And then what ?

 

@Spekulatius

 

I am curious, suppose that Ukraine takes back Crimea and somesort of cease-fire is established.

What do you think will happen to the majority Russian-speaking population in Crimea ?

 

Afterall, Ukraine would need to ensure that Russian concentration in Crimea is diluated through forced re-location etc. No ?

They do not want a potential rebellious territory so close to Russia. And I would do the samething if I were Ukrainian. I would want to bring Ukrainian population into Crimea and do everything I can to cap the local Russian population, either through forced location etc.

 

How would you go about solving that ?

 

 

[Spekulatius]

36 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

Like everything else ... And then what ?

 

@Spekulatius

 

I am curious, suppose that Ukraine takes back Crimea and somesort of cease-fire is established.

What do you think will happen to the majority Russian-speaking population in Crimea ?

 

Afterall, Ukraine would need to ensure that Russian concentration in Crimea is diluated through forced re-location etc. No ?

They do not want a potential rebellious territory so close to Russia. And I would do the samething if I were Ukrainian. I would want to bring Ukrainian population into Crimea and do everything I can to cap the local Russian population, either through forced location etc.

 

How would you go about solving that ?

 

 

I have no idea and don't make the rules. In the ideal case, the people living there got a say (referendum) and decide where they feel they belong to. Same in Donbas.

[formthirteen]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

EDIT @formthirteen This is not toward you at all. Just a general comment. Please dont take it the wrong way.

 

No worries. I know there are multiple viewpoints and interpretations and enjoy hearing more about them. I try to stay neutral and I try not to offend anyone, but my thinking is probably affected by the historical memes that have been repeated to me (my culture).

 

Here's a photo of me trying to enjoy myself right now:

Edited December 15, 2022 by formthirteen

[Xerxes]

19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I have no idea and don't make the rules. In the ideal case, the people living there got a say (referendum) and decide where they feel they belong to. Same in Donbas.

 

Why there is a need for a referendum ? (rhetorical Q)

 

If Ukrainian blood has been spilled to re-conquer lost territory. Than whoever doesn't like it, and doesnt want be a newly minted Ukrainian citizen, can just move to Russia.

 

A referendum implies that there is a possbility of Russian Crimeans voting to stay in Russian Federation. And what would be the return on investment on all that Ukrainian blood spilled to re-conquer those territories.

 

If Russian Crimeans vote to stay in Russian Federation, after Ukrainian re-conquest, I think it is clear that they do not want to move out of their houses, but rather the border to move so that they remain Russian.

 

By that logic, therefore, a referendum would never happen. If there is no referendum, Ukraine needs to protect its "weakest" link in the Russian-speaking territories with the newly minted local population, such that it is fully sovereign over Crimea.

 

This is complicated.

 

[Spekulatius]

33 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

Why there is a need for a referendum ? (rhetorical Q)

 

If Ukrainian blood has been spilled to re-conquer lost territory. Than whoever doesn't like it, and doesnt want be a newly minted Ukrainian citizen, can just move to Russia.

 

A referendum implies that there is a possbility of Russian Crimeans voting to stay in Russian Federation. And what would be the return on investment on all that Ukrainian blood spilled to re-conquer those territories.

 

If Russian Crimeans vote to stay in Russian Federation, after Ukrainian re-conquest, I think it is clear that they do not want to move out of their houses, but rather the border to move so that they remain Russian.

 

By that logic, therefore, a referendum would never happen. If there is no referendum, Ukraine needs to protect its "weakest" link in the Russian-speaking territories with the newly minted local population, such that it is fully sovereign over Crimea.

 

This is complicated.

 

It is complicated. I also said "ideal case" we and both know that ideal cases almost never happen. I have no idea how the people in Crimea or Donbas would vote, but I know that just because they speak Russian, does not necessarily imply they want to be Russian citizens. Perhaps they prefer to be a neutral state but that's even less likely.

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

It is complicated. I also said "ideal case" we and both know that ideal cases almost never happen. I have no idea how the people in Crimea or Donbas would vote, but I know that just because they speak Russian, does not necessarily imply they want to be Russian citizens. Perhaps they prefer to be a neutral state but that's even less likely.

 

Understood.

Cheers !

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-15/us-blacklists-more-china-tech-companies-escalating-trade-fight?srnd=premium-europe

 

There were some positive developments recently, especially on geopolitical rethorics from ccp and then this 180 turn around on covid (not sure how it will end thougt), but it seems that US just escallates more and more. And Chinas RE situation and economy is not getting better at all. Also re shareholder returns, audit solution is great, but what is interesting, that there are no major positive changes on big tech: didi, tencents games, ant ipo anything? So far seems no change on attitude in big tech from ccp?

 

Found this / on big tech: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-leaders-plot-pivot-back-toward-boosting-economy-11671103324?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

Separately, government officials in recent weeks have begun re-examining policies for the technology and education sectors—two of the hardest-hit targets of recent regulatory campaigns—and are preparing to wrap up long-running investigations against internet companies. One such move would allow ride-hailing company Didi Global Inc.’s mobile apps to be restored to domestic app stores, according to people familiar with the issue.

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by UK

[james22]

13 hours ago, Luca said:

We see chinese imperialism happening every day. The US does the same in every way, maybe they are smarter in hiding it but i dont see big differences. Media biases and what not.

 

Boring.

[Gregmal]

Are they going to abandon their efforts to “flatten the curve”? Remember when we believed that shit? Lol

[UK]

9 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Are they going to abandon their efforts to “flatten the curve”? Remember when we believed that shit? Lol

 

Not sure how will play it but so far:

 

"Anecdotal real-time data point to sharp drops in the use of roads and public transport as fear of the virus constrains activity in much the same way as official lockdowns. The development is a fresh blow to an economy that needs consumer demand to mitigate the chilling effect of a chronic real-estate crisis. It suggests that consumer-facing indicators, such as retail sales, are likely to fall further before herd immunity can kick in."

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-16/covid-unleashed-in-beijing-shows-rest-of-china-what-comes-next

 

Beijing’s rapidly spreading Covid outbreak has turned the Chinese capital of 22 million people into a virtual ghost town as stores close and restaurants empty, underscoring the cost of President Xi Jinping’s sudden pivot away from Covid Zero. Bucking expectations for a managed and gradual transition, Xi’s government is now allowing the virus to run rampant. While officials have abandoned efforts to track case numbers, anecdotal evidence suggests entire families and offices in Beijing have become infected in the span of just days — a potential harbinger of worse things to come in other parts of China with less-developed health care systems. 

 

Beijing residents are hunkering down at home, either because they’re scared of catching the virus or because they already have it. While many grocery stores are still open to provide essentials, delivery services for food and other goods are facing delays with workers out sick. The retrenchment suggests China’s economy is likely to get worse before the benefits of exiting Covid Zero start to kick in next year. “My whole office is positive and down,” said one Beijing resident, a project manager named Emile, who asked not to identified by his full name. “It seems everyone in the city has a fever or headache. Beijing looks like a ghost town.”

 

Infected or not, the abrupt change of policies has caught the country by surprise and many are frustrated after years of being told by China’s state media that Covid had to be stamped out by whatever means necessary. With the pathogen running rampant, the Communist Party is still insisting that Xi’s strategy will “stand the test of history” even as the president himself remains silent on the dramatic shift. 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-16/china-s-care-homes-rush-to-protect-elderly-from-covid-surge

 

The same hunkering down is taking place across China, as its under-vaccinated elderly suddenly find themselves surrounded by infection after three years of little threat. In cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Nanjing, local governments are enforcing on care homes the same closed-loop system that factories adopted during earlier outbreaks. No one comes, and no one goes. Time is running out. Evidence from around the world shows that facilities for seniors often see the biggest waves of deaths, which is why countries prioritized vaccinating care home occupants first. That’s not been the case in China, where 38,000 homes provide beds for 8.2 million seniors according to 2020 data. Only 42% of those aged over 80 have had booster shots. That’s well below the levels seen in other countries that reopened after abandoning strict approaches toward the virus.  “It’s just the start of a real tough time,” read a statement from Pudong Shinan Nursing Home in Shanghai explaining its new rules this week. “When the experts say 80-90% of the population will eventually get infected, we are scared!”

National Health Commission officials last week gave rudimentary advice to care homes facing potential outbreaks of Covid. Minimize the risk of infection by improving ventilation, practicing hand hygiene, wearing masks and avoiding gatherings. They also urged the elderly to get vaccinated, without making shots mandatory. Persuading the elderly has proven to be a tough task. Many older Chinese are reluctant to get vaccinated, said Feng Wang, a sociology professor at the University of California, Irvine. Forcing them to get vaccinated risks creating a backlash in a society that traditionally has emphasized respecting seniors, he said. “It’s a tremendous gamble,” said Wang. “If an elderly person resists, I’m pretty sure there will be a lot of reluctance among the nurses, the local neighborhood committees and officials to force elderly people to take the vaccine.”