Political Posts

[lnofeisone]

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-marines-surrender-russia-mariupol/31801246.html

 

Unconfirmed but not denied either. I've also read several unconfirmed reports that Russia has started using precision missiles and small special ops against various targets such as ammo depots, underground command centers, and airfields. I think Russia is adjusting on the battlefield and in the info sphere.

[SharperDingaan]

If you live in the former Russian republics, and have had the war experience; you have a very different POV.

A Russian success in the Ukraine means you're next - and your best defense against a destroyed future, and your cities being turned into rubble 'AGAIN' - is to do whatever you can to foil Russia's Ukraine advance. 

 

You are also very aware that when good people don't act, when they can - the result is another Hitler. And that help ... can come in a great many different ways.

 

Kids/moms/grandparents need to be got out, re-hosted, and de-traumatized somewhere safe. They are the Ukraine's future - and the return ticket 'home'. Thereafter, the focus shifts to slaughtering Russian troops - as ruthlessly, and brutally as possible.

 

Every time something moves in a Russia, there is a record, and it is a very leaky boat. Everything from accumulation of evidence for war crime prosecution, through to the bank accounts, smuggling conduits, fuel and ammunition stores/locations, and all in near real-time volumes. 'Cause the more you have to pay the sanctions breaker, the less there is for you. Death by suffocation.

 

Weapons, and intelligence inflows are an easy thing. Lend/lease a little more difficult, when its live time, and a drop from a high-tech drone with a target lock. Other vehicles are just proofs of concept.

 

State craft is to states, and for very good reason.

However most would think that the clock on Russia is rapidly ticking down. 

 

Keep scanning your daily copy of Pravda!

https://english.pravda.ru/

 

 

SD

 

    

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[no_free_lunch]

3 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-marines-surrender-russia-mariupol/31801246.html

 

Unconfirmed but not denied either. I've also read several unconfirmed reports that Russia has started using precision missiles and small special ops against various targets such as ammo depots, underground command centers, and airfields. I think Russia is adjusting on the battlefield and in the info sphere.

I suspect the surrender is true. They have been cut off for over a month and have been street fighting the whole time.  They claimed they had no ammunition left a couple days ago and that surrender was imminent.

 

Hopefully the Russian side allows the civilians who want to return to Ukraine to do so but I doubt that is in the cards.

[Spekulatius]

11 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I suspect the surrender is true. They have been cut off for over a month and have been street fighting the whole time.  They claimed they had no ammunition left a couple days ago and that surrender was imminent.

 

Hopefully the Russian side allows the civilians who want to return to Ukraine to do so but I doubt that is in the cards.

Yes, there are videos around on reddit that look authentic. The siege of Mariupol is on it's last legs.

[Pelagic]

It would appear Ukraine managed to sink the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Russia is claiming an ammunition storage issue aboard. Either scenario represents an almost unfathomable degree of ineptitude on the part of the Russian Navy. 

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, Pelagic said:

It would appear Ukraine managed to sink the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Russia is claiming an ammunition storage issue aboard. Either scenario represents an almost unfathomable degree of ineptitude on the part of the Russian Navy. 

Fake news. Kremlin:

Moskva destroyed Ukraine drone, completed fire drill. All Russian sailors who evacuated the ship are safe.

[SharperDingaan]

Sadly it still floats .... for now. Last month it was the the tank carrier Orsk, hit and set on fire in the Sea of Azov. And the chopper attack on an oil storage facility inside Russia 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/

 

These were little missiles, and proofs of concept - sailors walked away.

Much better ones are widely available, and they do kill ships in a single blow. Take the precision guided missiles off the table, or lose your fleet? 

 

SD

Edited April 14, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Sadly it still floats .... for now. Last month it was the the tank carrier Orsk, hit and set on fire in the Sea of Azov. And the chopper attack on an oil storage facility inside Russia 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/

 

These are little missiles, and proof of concepts - sailors walked away.

Much better ones are widely available, and they do kill ships in a single blow. Take the pecisio9n guided missiles off the table, or lose your fleet? 

 

SD

The russian black sea fleet being damaged is important because they currently blockade the last and most important Ukraine harbor, which is Odessa. this is imporant because grain shipments are typically coming via Odessa.

 

Ukraine a while ago stated that 2/3 of the fields were seeded this year, so there is a chance that a decent grain harvest is possible and that this grain can make it out.

 

I think sooner or later, NATO will force the Russian fleet to abandon the blockade if they don't go away by themselves or as part of a peace deal.

 

Will be interest to find out what exactly happened and if it's true that Russian ship defenses can't handle more than one incoming target.

 

Again I said it before - if your army/ navy / air force  has bought a lot of Russian material, I would seriously consider how much that is worth. Turkey for example has some pretty good stuff, if you need it cheaper than US/EU/UK can provide.

 

With Russian tanks popping turrets, IFV vehicles exploding after getting hit from bombs dropped from consumer grade drones, Helicopters getting into Russian air space and ships getting damaged because the defense system was overwhelmed means you bought a bunch of obsolete scrap.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

I don't buy that the Russian ship had an accident. Too much of a coincidence.  I suspect there will be more accidents to ships in that area.   For sure even Russia sources have confirmed it is damaged and will need repairs. 

[Pelagic]

7 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Sadly it still floats .... for now. Last month it was the the tank carrier Orsk, hit and set on fire in the Sea of Azov. And the chopper attack on an oil storage facility inside Russia 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/

 

These were little missiles, and proofs of concept - sailors walked away.

Much better ones are widely available, and they do kill ships in a single blow. Take the precision guided missiles off the table, or lose your fleet? 

 

SD

 

All things in good time.

 

 

[Xerxes]

[Spekulatius]

Very good presentation on the economical side of the war:

It’s interesting that you can get this type of analysis from a no-name account (at least for me) on YouTube. The likes of CNBC have nothing of this sort at all, not even close.

[no_free_lunch]

This could be significant. Possible reaper drones to Ukraine. My only concern is whether there will be enough given the scale of the fighting.  However it all helps and for sure this will bring fear on the steppe. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/04/13/ukraine-may-get-us-mq-9-reaper-strike-drones/?sh=4e025c355b3b

Edited April 15, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[SharperDingaan]

11 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

This could be significant. Possible reaper drones to Ukraine. My only concern is whether there will be enough given the scale of the fighting.  However it all helps and for sure this will bring fear on the steppe. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/04/13/ukraine-may-get-us-mq-9-reaper-strike-drones/?sh=4e025c355b3b

 

Think of them as lend/lease.

Lend as operation/maintenance by offshore independent contractors over Ukraine airspace, feeds tied to AI facial/body recognition. Lease of the weapons dropped under target lock. Different weapons for different targets.

 

Bounty on the high-value target split between the Ukraine and the contractor, Ukraine portion paying the lend. No play, no pay. The more on the card deck, and the higher the bounty, the better - capitalism at its best, 

 

Dirty deeds, done dirt cheap???? AC/DC ....

 

SD

 

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[james22]

So why is Russia losing so many tanks, so many crewmen?

The answer can be found in two things: Russia’s ongoing demographic collapse and the Russian military’s sad lack of training.

 

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2022/04/13/ukraine-war-have-missiles-made-tanks-obsolete-n1589423

 

...consider the last time Russia suffered such a humiliating naval defeat, in the 1904-1905 Russo-Japanese war, that defeat precipitated massive loss of prestige, unrest, military revolt, and revolution in 1905 and was a major nail in the coffin of Tsarist Russia...

 

https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant

[no_free_lunch]

It seems Russia can only play games when the rules are in their favor.  Attack a Ukrainian city, fair play.  Ukraine attacks a Russian city, out of bounds.

 

 

[lnofeisone]

Found this mildly entertaining (Russian embassy in DC)

and of course the musical version of it

 

 

[berkshiremystery]

 

 

Some of latest video footage of the Moskva in flames >>>

 

 

.....

 

.....

 

Again, I say that the targeting was probably done by the contractor Skynet-like Ai, that was in the payload of a recent SpaceX flight in the last 4 weeks. This emerging Ai-grid from space can to analysis 24/7 real time and forward simulated games.  The small **Cassandra** minded investor community in the footsteps of Michael Burry see the potential of their thesis at work for the first time. The CEO, only probably didn't expect, how it works this perfectly. Comparing AI to most lethal weapon in human history isn't comforting, but as Elon already said before, if you can't stop it, join it. Elon transported this contractor Ai with SpaceX, which is also currently placed in the core of Amazon AWS. This should be considered a very brilliant DUNE-like chess move, if Besos also using  the ¨same¨contractor Ai as Elon. The chess figures of snake oil are moving, visible. 

 

Cheers!

Edited April 15, 2022 by berkshiremystery

[berkshiremystery]

Just some educational overview.... the simulated Ai grid at work with another contractor. Cheers!

 

https://www.anduril.com/

 

 

 

.....

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by berkshiremystery

[berkshiremystery]

52 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

It seems Russia can only play games when the rules are in their favor.  Attack a Ukrainian city, fair play.  Ukraine attacks a Russian city, out of bounds.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

It seems Russia can only play games when the rules are in their favor.  Attack a Ukrainian city, fair play.  Ukraine attacks a Russian city, out of bounds.

 

 

Someone forgot to tell the Ukrainians that there is no war going on already. Note that there is some calculated significance to this ridiculousness - the Russians haven’t declared war yet on Ukraine, so they can’t mobilize the transcripts yet (technically have already to some extend, but it’s not publicly admitted). I think mobilizing the transcripts is the next escalation step for Russia and for that the Putin actually needs to declare war. Right now, it’s just a “special operation“ for the Russian officially.

 

Putin is a fellow who raises table stakes on losing hands, no matter what. So, if the Russian offensive in the Donbas fails, then Russia is likely to declare “War” on Ukraine as ridiculous it sounds.The goal is to allow for mobilization of more conscripts, so he has more material to throw into his meat grinder. At that point, he is doing the total war thing (switching the entire economy to a war economy) that the Nazis did in early 1943.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

2022 May Day is around the corner. Hopefully no one is going to do anything stupid just to have a worthy parade. 
 

Not the same vibe as the one in 1945, with Marshal Zhukov riding his white horse and the Polish-born Marshal Rokosovsky riding a black horse leading the parade. With Red army soldiers carrying the Nazi battle standards upside down and throwing them at Stalin’ feet. 
 

when the war started in Feb, as someone living in Canada for decades, I almost choked on my latte when I heard of de-nazification. Made no sense and sounded like a made up thing on spot. But I forgot that how steeped it must have been in Russian history, and how it might resonate. 
 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Xerxes

[aws]

How full are Russian oil and gas storage facilities? Do we have any way of really knowing?

 

We saw what happened in the US when there was fear that storage would fill up - oil prices went sharply negative and there were fears gas could do the same. Russia was already taking $40+ per barrel discounts on cargos without any effective bans in place.

 

It seems like if Europe could put a real ban on energy imports in place with immediate effect it would have a devastating impact on Russia's economy and force them to abandon the war. Their cash cow would become a massive burden overnight.

[Pelagic]

31 minutes ago, aws said:

How full are Russian oil and gas storage facilities? Do we have any way of really knowing?

 

We saw what happened in the US when there was fear that storage would fill up - oil prices went sharply negative and there were fears gas could do the same. Russia was already taking $40+ per barrel discounts on cargos without any effective bans in place.

 

It seems like if Europe could put a real ban on energy imports in place with immediate effect it would have a devastating impact on Russia's economy and force them to abandon the war. Their cash cow would become a massive burden overnight.

 

It does seem like the EU is conceding that an oil embargo is feasible and on the table. Won't expect the same for a NG embargo unless Russia does something to escalate beyond what they've already done and I hesitate to think what the EU has as its red line for NG imports.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/world/europe/european-union-oil-embargo-russia-ukraine.html

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

For the record Mariupol defenders remain and continue to fight.  Russia sources continue to brag about their success fighting them.   Yet these defenders have had no resupply for 50 days and likely have no heavy weapons remaining.  Yes they will likely surrender or die in the end but what is happening there is, in my opinion, legend.

Edited April 16, 2022 by no_free_lunch