Artificial Intelligence

[UK]

52 minutes ago, Longnose said:

Indeed...

 

Many of them are already at crazy valuations...  

 

Ive been doing a ton of playing with AI for coding and really struggling to believe that AI cuts these big boys off at the knees like this. 

 

Im struggling to find a good reason why the whole sector is selling off today too. Its like some whale fund, ETF, or index almost has some forced selling on the sector.  As im not really finding any news or anything.

Since 'war is over' maybe the market is back to worrying about AI disruption?

[UK]

"We're getting back ⁠to being concerned about the prior software-specific concerns stemming from AI and private credit that are coming back to the fore," said Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-software-stocks-fall-anthropics-new-ai-model-revives-disruption-fears-2026-04-09/

 

 

Edited April 9 by UK

[Milu]

Just now, Longnose said:

Indeed...

 

Many of them are already at crazy valuations...  

 

Ive been doing a ton of playing with AI for coding and really struggling to believe that AI cuts these big boys off at the knees like this. 

 

Im struggling to find a good reason why the whole sector is selling off today too. Its like some whale fund, ETF, or index almost has some forced selling on the sector.  As im not really finding any news or anything.

Ya I haven't seen any specific news come out. Service Now, Atlassian, Hubspot all down 5-7%.

[rogermunibond]

This doesn't read like a bubble

 

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-is-using-so-much-energy-that-computing-firepower-is-running-out-156e5c85?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[UK]

https://stratechery.com/2026/mythos-muse-and-the-opportunity-cost-of-compute/

[MungerWunger]

OpenAI leaked memo:

 

https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/911118/openai-memo-cro-ai-competition-anthropic

[mattee2264]

Isn't the reason AI is using so much energy because all these startups are being heavily subsidized by Mag7 and a lot of the usage is because AI is being provided to consumers and businesses either for free or at low prices which result in the likes of OpenAI losing lots of money? 

 

Obviously historically that has been the playbook to drive adoption and later on you monetize it. But there doesn't seem to be a lot of visibility on what kind of returns can be generated on all this spending and it is clear that scaling is running into diminishing returns and we may never achieve AGI. 

[frommi]

OpenAI and Anthropic are toast long term:

If locally run open source models are already good now, what will they look like in 5 years?

Edited April 16 by frommi

[Parsad]

With the dawn of AI, are we going to see an extreme form of neo-luddism?  Terrorist attacks, cyber attacks, etc on AI companies, installations, CEO's. 

 

Could we see some widespread rebellion against AI in a physical manifestation through domestic terrorism, etc?  Unlike the internet, this seems like a hill some will be willing to die on.  Cheers!

 

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/17/tech/anti-ai-attack-sam-altman

[formthirteen]

20 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Could we see some widespread rebellion against AI in a physical manifestation through domestic terrorism, etc?  Unlike the internet, this seems like a hill some will be willing to die on.  Cheers!

 

The first bullets have been fired:

https://fortune.com/2026/04/07/indianapolis-councilmember-ai-data-center-backlash/

 

Quote

Ron Gibson, a city-county councilmember, woke up just before 1AM on Monday to find 13 bullet holes in his home, along with a note on his doorstep  that read “No Data Centers.” He and his 8-year-old son were home at the time, according to a statement released by the councilmember on Monday, though neither reported injuries.

 

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

The first bullets have been fired:

https://fortune.com/2026/04/07/indianapolis-councilmember-ai-data-center-backlash/

 

 

Sound sleeper. The bullets whizzing through his home didn’t wake him up.

[rogermunibond]

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/13/missouri-city-council-data-center-00867259

 

politicians voted out of office for data center votes

Edited April 18 by rogermunibond

[rogermunibond]

 

 

Edited April 22 by rogermunibond

[NnnnotSoSmart]

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, to explore the explosive supply and demand dynamics of the AI revolution. Dylan shares how his firm's token spend skyrocketed to $7 million a year, completely transforming their productivity and highlighting a new era where execution is cheap, but high-quality ideas are at a premium. They dive into the implications of Anthropic’s frontier models like Opus 4.7 and "Mythos," the hidden bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain (including memory, TSMC, and CPUs), and the economic phenomenon of "phantom GDP." Finally, Dylan shares his bold prediction on the societal impact of rapid AI scaling, including why large-scale anti-AI protests might be just around the corner.

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 Surging AI Spend
10:27 Token Demand
16:21 When Ideas Are Cheap and Execution is Easy
20:46 Model Hoarding
22:34 Robotics
27:03 The Compute Bottleneck
30:26 The AI Permanent Underclass
31:39 Supply Chain Reality
37:47 CPUs
42:54 Predictions: Public Backlash

 

 

[patience_and_focus]

47 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, to explore the explosive supply and demand dynamics of the AI revolution. Dylan shares how his firm's token spend skyrocketed to $7 million a year, completely transforming their productivity and highlighting a new era where execution is cheap, but high-quality ideas are at a premium. They dive into the implications of Anthropic’s frontier models like Opus 4.7 and "Mythos," the hidden bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain (including memory, TSMC, and CPUs), and the economic phenomenon of "phantom GDP." Finally, Dylan shares his bold prediction on the societal impact of rapid AI scaling, including why large-scale anti-AI protests might be just around the corner.

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 Surging AI Spend
10:27 Token Demand
16:21 When Ideas Are Cheap and Execution is Easy
20:46 Model Hoarding
22:34 Robotics
27:03 The Compute Bottleneck
30:26 The AI Permanent Underclass
31:39 Supply Chain Reality
37:47 CPUs
42:54 Predictions: Public Backlash

 

 

 

ok, I am having a hard time, the guy talks very fast. At 18:55 - "...execution was very difficult but ideas were cheap.....now ideas are cheap and plentiful but execution is very easy, so only good ideas are ones that can justify the spend on super cheap implementation..."

 

Huh???

Edited April 24 by patience_and_focus

[Milu]

4 hours ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, to explore the explosive supply and demand dynamics of the AI revolution. Dylan shares how his firm's token spend skyrocketed to $7 million a year, completely transforming their productivity and highlighting a new era where execution is cheap, but high-quality ideas are at a premium. They dive into the implications of Anthropic’s frontier models like Opus 4.7 and "Mythos," the hidden bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain (including memory, TSMC, and CPUs), and the economic phenomenon of "phantom GDP." Finally, Dylan shares his bold prediction on the societal impact of rapid AI scaling, including why large-scale anti-AI protests might be just around the corner.

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 Surging AI Spend
10:27 Token Demand
16:21 When Ideas Are Cheap and Execution is Easy
20:46 Model Hoarding
22:34 Robotics
27:03 The Compute Bottleneck
30:26 The AI Permanent Underclass
31:39 Supply Chain Reality
37:47 CPUs
42:54 Predictions: Public Backlash

 

 

Yes, I enjoyed this episode. I'd say this trend of gradually increasing token spend relative to labour spend will continue for long time and expand from early adopters to the wider corporate world. He mentions that the current token spend they pay anthropic is 25%(and growing) of total employee salary spend. 

[NnnnotSoSmart]

 

[gfp]

On 4/24/2026 at 12:56 AM, NnnnotSoSmart said:

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, to explore the explosive supply and demand dynamics of the AI revolution. Dylan shares how his firm's token spend skyrocketed to $7 million a year, completely transforming their productivity and highlighting a new era where execution is cheap, but high-quality ideas are at a premium. They dive into the implications of Anthropic’s frontier models like Opus 4.7 and "Mythos," the hidden bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain (including memory, TSMC, and CPUs), and the economic phenomenon of "phantom GDP." Finally, Dylan shares his bold prediction on the societal impact of rapid AI scaling, including why large-scale anti-AI protests might be just around the corner.

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 Surging AI Spend
10:27 Token Demand
16:21 When Ideas Are Cheap and Execution is Easy
20:46 Model Hoarding
22:34 Robotics
27:03 The Compute Bottleneck
30:26 The AI Permanent Underclass
31:39 Supply Chain Reality
37:47 CPUs
42:54 Predictions: Public Backlash

 

 

 

Finally got around to watching this and I also highly recommend it.  I read the semi analysis newsletter. This interview gives away a lot of information for free.

[NnnnotSoSmart]

Wasn't sure where to post this.  Decided this was the best place.

 

Recent posted interview (recorded in February 2026) with trader Paul Tudor Jones.

.

 

At 23:40 minutes Tudor Jones mentions a recent interchange he had with Warren regarding the risks of AI. Jones had apparently attended a conference (on the potential risks of AI) 18 months ago and was alarmed by what he had heard and had spoken about it on CNBS. Mr Buffett had watched the piece and immediately reached out to him saying he completely agreed with Jones concerns. Buffett told Jones the "genie was already out of the bottle, and I don't think we can get it completely back in."

 

Tudor Jones:"I think he (Buffett) is completely on board with the belief that we have some very real threats from AI"

 

Tudor Jones goes on to describe what was discussed at the AI conference he attended which included AI modelers representing each of the major LLM companies. He apparently asked the modelers how the AI safety issue would be resolved. The consensus answer was that the AI safety issue would be resolved "when 50-100 million people die".

 

Scary stuff.

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-misses-key-revenue-user-targets-in-high-stakes-sprint-toward-ipo-94a95273

 

Quote

OpenAI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue, stumbles that have raised concern among some company leaders about whether it will be able to support its massive spending on data centers.

Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told other company leaders that she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn’t grow fast enough, according to people familiar with the matter. 

 

Quote

Board directors have also more closely examined the company’s data-center deals in recent months and questioned Chief Executive Sam Altman’s efforts to secure even more computing power despite the business slowdown, the people said.

The spending scrutiny is constraining Altman’s once-boundless ambitions ahead of a potential initial public offering that could take place by the end of the year. Friar and other executives are now seeking to control costs and instill more discipline in the business, at times putting them at odds with their CEO, people familiar with the issue said. 

 

Lol...

 

So is this a sign of OpenAI losing to Anthropic or a sign of air being taken out of the entire AI complex ?

[NnnnotSoSmart]

Interesting conversation. 

AI’s Next Big Leap -Morgan Stanley

Apr 28, 2026  Thoughts on the Market
Tom Wigg and Stephen Byrd discuss the accelerating pace of AI breakthroughs, the forces driving them and why the next phase of development may look very different from anything we’ve seen so far.

 

 

[frommi]

1 hour ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

Interesting conversation. 

AI’s Next Big Leap -Morgan Stanley

Apr 28, 2026  Thoughts on the Market
Tom Wigg and Stephen Byrd discuss the accelerating pace of AI breakthroughs, the forces driving them and why the next phase of development may look very different from anything we’ve seen so far.

 

 

In the first two minutes you already realize that these guys have no clue what they are talking about. 10 times more compute necessary for 2x improvement in model performance is not exponential, its getting dminishing returns for each amount of compute.

[mattee2264]

Hussman Funds did some analysis recently observing that consensus forecasts over the next year or two are projecting a broad based margin expansion presumably because of AI. In other words assuming that the benefits of AI will be significant, widely distributed AND realized quickly. 

 

Something that also seems to get lost is that if AI is as successful as earnings estimates seem to be projecting then there will be a rise in unemployment and many of the unemployed will be white collar workers with significant salaries. These workers will therefore need to cut back on consumption and even have to sell their investments to make ends meet. Government debt and deficits are already stretched so it is difficult to imagine much appetite to quickly implement some kind of universal basic income or increase the generosity of unemployment benefits. 

 

 

[Marco Van Basten]

2 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

Hussman Funds did some analysis recently observing that consensus forecasts over the next year or two are projecting a broad based margin expansion presumably because of AI. In other words assuming that the benefits of AI will be significant, widely distributed AND realized quickly. 

 

Something that also seems to get lost is that if AI is as successful as earnings estimates seem to be projecting then there will be a rise in unemployment and many of the unemployed will be white collar workers with significant salaries. These workers will therefore need to cut back on consumption and even have to sell their investments to make ends meet. Government debt and deficits are already stretched so it is difficult to imagine much appetite to quickly implement some kind of universal basic income or increase the generosity of unemployment benefits. 

 

 

Not necessarily.  You can have margin expansion and without higher unemployment.  First of all, in the US, without immigration, labor force is unlikely to grow.  We also have millions of jobs begging for workers: doctors, nurses, assistants in nursing homes, plumbers/electricians/carpenters/masons, and the list goes on.  So you could have millions of people switch from wasting time in college studying imperialism in Islam and then complaining that they can't find a job to doing something productive for society.  

[mattee2264]

Agree with the above if we were going through a gradual transition. But Big Tech are spending trillions a year on AI capex and the corporate spending required to provide sufficient return on those investments likely does need a significant reallocation of corporate budgets from wages to IT spend. 

 

Productivity is often defined as output per worker. For your more benign scenario where the productivity improvements means the technology pays for itself you need it to come primarily from higher output rather than same output but achieved through fewer workers as a result of automation etc. That may be true for some industries but I don't think it is the case across the board. 

 

Eventually I agree there will be some kind of reallocation of workers the same way there was during the agricultural and industrial revolution but it takes time and the transition period will be painful and I don't think governments are ready for it.