TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 Am I the first to say that the insurance subs shot lights out? Holy smokes! Net Written growth is not just double-digits for most of those subs (Brit and Zenith excepted), but well into the double digits (WTF, Odyssey gross written up by like 25%!!!). The combined ratios were outstanding. Capital still looks a bit tight at Crum, despite the holdco pumping an enormous amount into the subs. Just as an observation completely separate from Q4 results, does anybody have a good explanation for why Allied cedes so much premium? The FFH total return swaps are very likely to work out fabulously during 2021. Is anyone else surprised that the regulators even allow companies to buy TRS in themselves? Not a criticism of FFH, but it's just that I don't ever recall seeing that technique disclosed by other companies. Not a word about "subsequent to quarter's end?" How is that possible? Best quarter that I can recall in quite some time. SJ Not only were they able to do it, but they apparently didn't have to disclose the swap in the same way they have to disclose market purchases. Which makes me think that a TRS on Blackberry was also possible without disclosure. Time will tell. We can live in hope! SJ Very great quarter. Laughed when I saw the TRS on themselves. Have been speculating they would do that for the BB position - never imagined they would use it for repurchase purposes and as away around leverage ratios. Prem always surprises! A little disappointed with the Brit sale - it was established yesterday... If they needed cash, they could've gotten that from selling some of the BB shares. The sale of Brit suggests that they probably didn't sell/trim BB for that cash. We'll see what they say tomorrow, but I'm not optimistic that BB was hedged/sold anymore.
StubbleJumper Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 Am I the first to say that the insurance subs shot lights out? Holy smokes! Net Written growth is not just double-digits for most of those subs (Brit and Zenith excepted), but well into the double digits (WTF, Odyssey gross written up by like 25%!!!). The combined ratios were outstanding. Capital still looks a bit tight at Crum, despite the holdco pumping an enormous amount into the subs. Just as an observation completely separate from Q4 results, does anybody have a good explanation for why Allied cedes so much premium? The FFH total return swaps are very likely to work out fabulously during 2021. Is anyone else surprised that the regulators even allow companies to buy TRS in themselves? Not a criticism of FFH, but it's just that I don't ever recall seeing that technique disclosed by other companies. Not a word about "subsequent to quarter's end?" How is that possible? Best quarter that I can recall in quite some time. SJ Not only were they able to do it, but they apparently didn't have to disclose the swap in the same way they have to disclose market purchases. Which makes me think that a TRS on Blackberry was also possible without disclosure. Time will tell. We can live in hope! SJ Very great quarter. Laughed when I saw the TRS on themselves. Have been speculating they would do that for the BB position - never imagined they would use it for repurchase purposes and as away around leverage ratios. Prem always surprises! A little disappointed with the Brit sale - it was established yesterday... If they needed cash, they could've gotten that from selling some of the BB shares. The sale of Brit suggests that they probably didn't sell/trim BB for that cash. We'll see what they say tomorrow, but I'm not optimistic that BB was hedged/sold anymore. Could you please walk us through the TRS situation? So, they entered into TRS equivalent to 1.4m shares at US$344. Today FFH closed at US$399. Would I be correct to understand that FFH is therefore ahead by about US$77m on that transaction? Yes, the leverage ratios are high and look like they are a constraint. The gains in Q4 and Q1 help immensely, as would a ridiculous Farmers Edge valuation, but holdco will need more cash during 2021, and now is not the time to take dividends from the insurance subs. IMO, they'll need to float some debt this year, and it might be time to have a conversation with the banker about amending the covenants on that revolver. SJ
lessthaniv Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 I'm interested as to understanding the terms of the TRS contract they've initiated. In praticular, when/how it can be terminated. Taking into account the comment about price ~ $443cdn and the following quote; "Throughout much of last year, I made public statements that Fairfax shares were trading at a ridiculously cheap price. Since the latter part of 2020 we have purchased total return swaps of 1,407,864 shares of Fairfax" (5.4% of shares)" The stock hit ~$443cdn in later Nov, so I'd guess the contract is only a couple of months old. Hopefully it can only be closed on the termination date so they can book the rest of their gains first! Doesn’t matter when it closes. The point is (I think) they’ve locked in that price for a future buyback of 1.4m shares. Edit: what I mean is that when it closes doesn’t affect the profitability of the eventual buyback. If the TRS contract allows the parties to close out quarterly for example, FFH may be limited to a short term window where they can accrue gains on the reference asset (1.4m shares) less the cost paid (LIBOR + spread) for the period. On the other hand, if the counter party can't close out until a specific termination date set in the future, say 1 year from initiation, then FFH has more time to capture upside on the reference asset which is exciting knowing all the tailwinds occurring at the moment (Farm Edg, BB etc, CR's etc ). Paying LIBOR + spread vs. getting upside on 1.4M shares from $443cdn for a few more quarters is a pretty attractive risk/reward with all these tailwinds in mind. I'm by no means a SWAP expert - but that's how I'm understanding this at the moment. Correct me if I'm missing something.
lessthaniv Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 Am I the first to say that the insurance subs shot lights out? Holy smokes! Net Written growth is not just double-digits for most of those subs (Brit and Zenith excepted), but well into the double digits (WTF, Odyssey gross written up by like 25%!!!). The combined ratios were outstanding. Capital still looks a bit tight at Crum, despite the holdco pumping an enormous amount into the subs. Just as an observation completely separate from Q4 results, does anybody have a good explanation for why Allied cedes so much premium? The FFH total return swaps are very likely to work out fabulously during 2021. Is anyone else surprised that the regulators even allow companies to buy TRS in themselves? Not a criticism of FFH, but it's just that I don't ever recall seeing that technique disclosed by other companies. Not a word about "subsequent to quarter's end?" How is that possible? Best quarter that I can recall in quite some time. SJ Not only were they able to do it, but they apparently didn't have to disclose the swap in the same way they have to disclose market purchases. Which makes me think that a TRS on Blackberry was also possible without disclosure. Time will tell. We can live in hope! SJ Very great quarter. Laughed when I saw the TRS on themselves. Have been speculating they would do that for the BB position - never imagined they would use it for repurchase purposes and as away around leverage ratios. Prem always surprises! A little disappointed with the Brit sale - it was established yesterday... If they needed cash, they could've gotten that from selling some of the BB shares. The sale of Brit suggests that they probably didn't sell/trim BB for that cash. We'll see what they say tomorrow, but I'm not optimistic that BB was hedged/sold anymore. Could you please walk us through the TRS situation? So, they entered into TRS equivalent to 1.4m shares at US$344. Today FFH closed at US$399. Would I be correct to understand that FFH is therefore ahead by about US$77m on that transaction? Yes, the leverage ratios are high and look like they are a constraint. The gains in Q4 and Q1 help immensely, as would a ridiculous Farmers Edge valuation, but holdco will need more cash during 2021, and now is not the time to take dividends from the insurance subs. IMO, they'll need to float some debt this year, and it might be time to have a conversation with the banker about amending the covenants on that revolver. SJ SJ Could you please walk us through the TRS situation? So, they entered into TRS equivalent to 1.4m shares at US$344. Today FFH closed at US$399. Would I be correct to understand that FFH is therefore ahead by about US$77m on that transaction? Yes, I agree with this statement but they have to pay some cost on the reference asset which will reduce this a bit ( likely = LIBOR+spread)
Cigarbutt Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 ... Just as an observation completely separate from Q4 results, does anybody have a good explanation for why Allied cedes so much premium? SJ 2 years after inception, starting in 2004 and going to the time Allied was acquired by FFH, they focused on primary property layers and low excess casualty layers and consistently (and in correlation to their exposure profile, industry practice and reinsurance pricing) retained 78 + or - 1% of their gross premiums. After the acquisition, there has been very significant growth in the primary casualty lines which have more uncertainty in relation to real exposure, loss development and timing of payments, requiring to cede a higher level of premiums, especially if reinsurance pricing is reasonable for those business lines. Retention has gone down accordingly: 2017:72%, 2018:70%, 2019:65% and 2020:64%. Also fast premium growth (even if capitalization has been relatively high at Allied and even in a hard market) is an added consideration for future uncertainty of cash flows. At least that's the way i see it and people actually writing contracts likely know better.
ValueMaven Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 forwards are not like futures -- esp highly customized ones like TRS's on FFH. It's all OTC and highly customizable...not easy to offset at all to lock in a gain.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 forwards are not like futures -- esp highly customized ones like TRS's on FFH. It's all OTC and highly customizable...not easy to offset at all to lock in a gain. Typically they're cash settled on a monthly or quarterly basis. So in March, it's likely Fairfax gets cut a check for $50-100 million pending it's price on the reference date. Obviously they could always be on the hook to send that cash back if the share price dips the next quarter, but but all in all it's brilliant. 1) only requires 10-15% of the cash an actual repurchase would while entitling them to 90-99% of the returns 2) Allows them to lock in a sizable repurchase without triggering leverage ratios 3) could actually be a liquid benefit at the hold co as the shares appreciate as cash would be delivered to Fairfax as payment on the swap.
StubbleJumper Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 ... Just as an observation completely separate from Q4 results, does anybody have a good explanation for why Allied cedes so much premium? SJ 2 years after inception, starting in 2004 and going to the time Allied was acquired by FFH, they focused on primary property layers and low excess casualty layers and consistently (and in correlation to their exposure profile, industry practice and reinsurance pricing) retained 78 + or - 1% of their gross premiums. After the acquisition, there has been very significant growth in the primary casualty lines which have more uncertainty in relation to real exposure, loss development and timing of payments, requiring to cede a higher level of premiums, especially if reinsurance pricing is reasonable for those business lines. Retention has gone down accordingly: 2017:72%, 2018:70%, 2019:65% and 2020:64%. Also fast premium growth (even if capitalization has been relatively high at Allied and even in a hard market) is an added consideration for future uncertainty of cash flows. At least that's the way i see it and people actually writing contracts likely know better. That's an interesting trend in premium retention. What really struck me is that Allied was one of the few subs that had considerable dividend capacity and a reasonably low premiums-to-surplus, as at Dec 31, 2019 (no capital problems). It's a bit of a funny trend to see in a hard market for a well capitalized sub. Perhaps management foresees big things in 2021 or 2022. SJ
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 I am also curious to see how the market responds - historically it pops like 2-3 days AFTER earnings are announced. Will be interesting to see if it's flat tomorrow and up big in Monday or Tuesday.
StubbleJumper Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 3) could actually be a liquid benefit at the hold co as the shares appreciate as cash would be delivered to Fairfax as payment on the swap. Is there a reason to assume that the TRS are held at the holdco and not scattered across the subs? Given that FFH is currently ahead on the swaps, it would be nice if that occurred at the holdco... SJ
StubbleJumper Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 I am also curious to see how the market responds - historically it pops like 2-3 days AFTER earnings are announced. Will be interesting to see if it's flat tomorrow and up big in Monday or Tuesday. It's like the acceleration lag on a turbo charged car! SJ
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 3) could actually be a liquid benefit at the hold co as the shares appreciate as cash would be delivered to Fairfax as payment on the swap. Is there a reason to assume that the TRS are held at the holdco and not scattered across the subs? Given that FFH is currently ahead on the swaps, it would be nice if that occurred at the holdco... SJ Hard to say. I'm not familiar enough in the regulatory side to know, but it would certainly be easier to open a single contract at the holdco for the entire amount then multiple contracts across all of the subsidiaries. Trading these things requires an ISDA (or at least used to) and probably easier to not have every single subsidiary having to have one
StubbleJumper Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 3) could actually be a liquid benefit at the hold co as the shares appreciate as cash would be delivered to Fairfax as payment on the swap. Is there a reason to assume that the TRS are held at the holdco and not scattered across the subs? Given that FFH is currently ahead on the swaps, it would be nice if that occurred at the holdco... SJ Hard to say. I'm not familiar enough in the regulatory side to know, but it would certainly be easier to open a single contract at the holdco for the entire amount then multiple contracts across all of the subsidiaries. Trading these things requires an ISDA (or at least used to) and probably easier to not have every single subsidiary having to have one That makes sense. The TRS are probably held at the holdco level. SJ
Cigarbutt Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 ... Just as an observation completely separate from Q4 results, does anybody have a good explanation for why Allied cedes so much premium? SJ ... That's an interesting trend in premium retention. What really struck me is that Allied was one of the few subs that had considerable dividend capacity and a reasonably low premiums-to-surplus, as at Dec 31, 2019 (no capital problems). It's a bit of a funny trend to see in a hard market for a well capitalized sub. Perhaps management foresees big things in 2021 or 2022. SJ Perhaps you're right (big things foreseen by management) but there may be an element of regulatory insecurity concerning the ever unconventional capital management style. It seemed that building a rock solid balance sheet would have been the natural evolution after reaching a certain size but this is not part of their DNA and perhaps never will. The mother of all hardening could come from an asset side shock and it's not clear how FFH could really benefit if that scenario materializes over the foreseeable future. The TRS synthetic buyback is really clever and looks very good at this point but (if one is into discounting downside scenarios) this is not a true swap; both cash flows of the swap could go in the same direction (away from FFH). Allied remains very well capitalized despite the recent growth but so is the overall insurance industry. It's kind of a bizarre hardening.
petec Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 I'm interested as to understanding the terms of the TRS contract they've initiated. In praticular, when/how it can be terminated. Taking into account the comment about price ~ $443cdn and the following quote; "Throughout much of last year, I made public statements that Fairfax shares were trading at a ridiculously cheap price. Since the latter part of 2020 we have purchased total return swaps of 1,407,864 shares of Fairfax" (5.4% of shares)" The stock hit ~$443cdn in later Nov, so I'd guess the contract is only a couple of months old. Hopefully it can only be closed on the termination date so they can book the rest of their gains first! Doesn’t matter when it closes. The point is (I think) they’ve locked in that price for a future buyback of 1.4m shares. Edit: what I mean is that when it closes doesn’t affect the profitability of the eventual buyback. If the TRS contract allows the parties to close out quarterly for example, FFH may be limited to a short term window where they can accrue gains on the reference asset (1.4m shares) less the cost paid (LIBOR + spread) for the period. On the other hand, if the counter party can't close out until a specific termination date set in the future, say 1 year from initiation, then FFH has more time to capture upside on the reference asset which is exciting knowing all the tailwinds occurring at the moment (Farm Edg, BB etc, CR's etc ). Paying LIBOR + spread vs. getting upside on 1.4M shares from $443cdn for a few more quarters is a pretty attractive risk/reward with all these tailwinds in mind. I'm by no means a SWAP expert - but that's how I'm understanding this at the moment. Correct me if I'm missing something. If it’s just a financial bet then you’re right. I don’t think it’s a financial bet. I think it’s a buyback. I think once they have the cash to pay 1.4m * USD344, they close out the TRS and buy 1.4m shares, using gains on the TRS to pay for any amount by which the share price exceeds USD344. Thought about that way, it doesn’t matter whether the transaction happens tomorrow or in a decade. I could easily be wrong!
Parsad Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 I'm interested as to understanding the terms of the TRS contract they've initiated. In praticular, when/how it can be terminated. Taking into account the comment about price ~ $443cdn and the following quote; "Throughout much of last year, I made public statements that Fairfax shares were trading at a ridiculously cheap price. Since the latter part of 2020 we have purchased total return swaps of 1,407,864 shares of Fairfax" (5.4% of shares)" The stock hit ~$443cdn in later Nov, so I'd guess the contract is only a couple of months old. Hopefully it can only be closed on the termination date so they can book the rest of their gains first! Doesn’t matter when it closes. The point is (I think) they’ve locked in that price for a future buyback of 1.4m shares. Edit: what I mean is that when it closes doesn’t affect the profitability of the eventual buyback. If the TRS contract allows the parties to close out quarterly for example, FFH may be limited to a short term window where they can accrue gains on the reference asset (1.4m shares) less the cost paid (LIBOR + spread) for the period. On the other hand, if the counter party can't close out until a specific termination date set in the future, say 1 year from initiation, then FFH has more time to capture upside on the reference asset which is exciting knowing all the tailwinds occurring at the moment (Farm Edg, BB etc, CR's etc ). Paying LIBOR + spread vs. getting upside on 1.4M shares from $443cdn for a few more quarters is a pretty attractive risk/reward with all these tailwinds in mind. I'm by no means a SWAP expert - but that's how I'm understanding this at the moment. Correct me if I'm missing something. If it’s just a financial bet then you’re right. I don’t think it’s a financial bet. I think it’s a buyback. I think once they have the cash to pay 1.4m * USD344, they close out the TRS and buy 1.4m shares, using gains on the TRS to pay for any amount by which the share price exceeds USD344. Thought about that way, it doesn’t matter whether the transaction happens tomorrow or in a decade. I could easily be wrong! Actually, the way it works is that Fairfax pays a fee...usually Libor plus a negotiated rate. As Fairfax trades higher, the counterparty pays the difference between the strike price and market price. At the end of the swap time period, Fairfax gets the counterparty payments minus the Libor plus negotiated rate. It's not a buyback, but they benefit from it as if they bought those shares, paid a fee and reaped the gains. If Fairfax stock falls, then Fairfax pays the difference between the strike price and market price into the swap. Cheers!
petec Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 BTW for amusement: I think there are about 230m shares outstanding after the IPO. 80m now, plus 130m from conversion of the Fairfax and Osmington debs, plus 20 for warrants. FDGE had a revenue run rate of $55m at YE20. At $10, it's being valued on 42x revenues. I haven't the heart to do the calculation at $17. Petec, I don't think you have the math quite right. There is going to be a consolidation of shares immediately prior to the IPO (see page 101 of the preliminary prospectus) While we don't yet know the exact ratio we can back into it from the PowerPoint presentation on Sedar. Using the midpoint of the offer range, the company suggests that the IPO shareholders will own 16% and Fairfax will own 65%. Based on $100 million being raised at $13.50 per share implies that the IPO shareholders will own 7.41 million shares. If the IPO shareholders own 16% this implies a total share count outstanding after the IPO of approximately 46.31 million shares outstanding (i.e. after the effects of the share consolidation immediately prior to the IPO). With 65% ownership post IPO, this suggests that Fairfax will own about 30.1 million shares. At $13.50 per share, it also implies that the market valuation will be about $625 million in total. Ay ay ay how did I/we miss that? I think your maths works out at about a 5:1 consolidation ratio, and if you search for "consolidation" in the prospectus the first hit gives an assumed ratio of 7:1. That changes the picture totally: at a 7:1 ratio Fairfax's cost is $2.4*7=$16.8, which is at the high end of the IPO range. It is quite likely Fairfax will not book a gain. There won't be a loss either, because the debs convert at the lower of ($2.40 * the consolidation ratio) and the IPO price, and the Osmington transaction has this feature too. It also means there are fewer warrants than we thought. Frankly strikes me as a mindlessly complex way to do an IPO. But the bottom line is that FFH won't be booking a profit. The main benefit is that FDGE will get $100m of funding that didn't come from Fairfax.
petec Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 I'm interested as to understanding the terms of the TRS contract they've initiated. In praticular, when/how it can be terminated. Taking into account the comment about price ~ $443cdn and the following quote; "Throughout much of last year, I made public statements that Fairfax shares were trading at a ridiculously cheap price. Since the latter part of 2020 we have purchased total return swaps of 1,407,864 shares of Fairfax" (5.4% of shares)" The stock hit ~$443cdn in later Nov, so I'd guess the contract is only a couple of months old. Hopefully it can only be closed on the termination date so they can book the rest of their gains first! Doesn’t matter when it closes. The point is (I think) they’ve locked in that price for a future buyback of 1.4m shares. Edit: what I mean is that when it closes doesn’t affect the profitability of the eventual buyback. If the TRS contract allows the parties to close out quarterly for example, FFH may be limited to a short term window where they can accrue gains on the reference asset (1.4m shares) less the cost paid (LIBOR + spread) for the period. On the other hand, if the counter party can't close out until a specific termination date set in the future, say 1 year from initiation, then FFH has more time to capture upside on the reference asset which is exciting knowing all the tailwinds occurring at the moment (Farm Edg, BB etc, CR's etc ). Paying LIBOR + spread vs. getting upside on 1.4M shares from $443cdn for a few more quarters is a pretty attractive risk/reward with all these tailwinds in mind. I'm by no means a SWAP expert - but that's how I'm understanding this at the moment. Correct me if I'm missing something. If it’s just a financial bet then you’re right. I don’t think it’s a financial bet. I think it’s a buyback. I think once they have the cash to pay 1.4m * USD344, they close out the TRS and buy 1.4m shares, using gains on the TRS to pay for any amount by which the share price exceeds USD344. Thought about that way, it doesn’t matter whether the transaction happens tomorrow or in a decade. I could easily be wrong! Actually, the way it works is that Fairfax pays a fee...usually Libor plus a negotiated rate. As Fairfax trades higher, the counterparty pays the difference between the strike price and market price. At the end of the swap time period, Fairfax gets the counterparty payments minus the Libor plus negotiated rate. It's not a buyback, but they benefit from it as if they bought those shares, paid a fee and reaped the gains. If Fairfax stock falls, then Fairfax pays the difference between the strike price and market price into the swap. Cheers! Yes I realise this. I think the debate we are having is over whether the benefit is: 1) locking in a profit on the appreciation of their own shares, in which case the longer the TRS lasts the better, and 2) locking in a price at which to buy back shares, in which case it doesn't matter how long the TRS lasts so long as it lasts long enough for them to collect $344*1.4m = $480m of cash to complete the buyback.
petec Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 I'm wondering if Prem mentioning the total return swaps hinted at what they may have done with the Blackberry spike in January. I hope they locked in some of those gains! Also, as I estimated, I would imagine book value in Q1 presently is around $500 USD...which would justify a price of $600 USD at the end of Q1. Cheers! I think it is nearer $530. Based on what's happened to Blackberry and Digit. Mind you bond yields might have dented that so $500 is probably a wiser assumption!
drzola Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 BRIT reported fyi https://www.printfriendly.com/p/g/HmYHjt P.S. Covid has had me working from home as an Descriptive meta data Technician for CDN Fed's updates ( Tam,s data base for you Canuck's onboard here ) So, I mostly enter ones and zeroes in the midst of the dark night on a heavily registered VPN ip address on qty. three keyboards in my living room thus my sudden spikes of Insane like posts off and on here so far since Mar 13th 2020 and first quarter of 2021.. FML for now I spose Stay Safe and Sane as "Best you Can" for a most likely FULL year of more off and on lock down Havoc in the Great White North folks!
maxthetrade Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 Yes I realise this. I think the debate we are having is over whether the benefit is: 1) locking in a profit on the appreciation of their own shares, in which case the longer the TRS lasts the better, and 2) locking in a price at which to buy back shares, in which case it doesn't matter how long the TRS lasts so long as it lasts long enough for them to collect $344*1.4m = $480m of cash to complete the buyback. Don't forget that any gains from the TRS are taxable, so it's not as efficient as a buy back but it was the best thing they could do considering their cash position.
drzola Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 I imagine they have past leftover silo's full of crap ( crop ) to offset any cap gains on these vs vanilla buyback's?
SharperDingaan Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 Very nice quarter. TRS: Always nice to learn from the master. We're just mindful that the updates are as at end-of-day today; have to think that similar things are buzzing around some of the recent runups, that transact AFTER today. Share price: The previous buy was at an average CAD 522, the TRS strike is at around CAD 530, yesterdays close was CAD 508. Most would argue a floor price of around CAD 530 + 2-4% for expected Q121 growth, and a few days to get there. Interesting times ;) SD
racemize Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 wow, which one of you just went off on Prem on the call?
StevieV Posted February 12, 2021 Posted February 12, 2021 wow, which one of you just went off on Prem on the call? What was said?
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