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Vaccine is here #3


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Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine shows an average 70% effectiveness in preventing the virus

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-is-70percent-effective-trial-shows-.html

 

I keep hiding under my bed..... Now it is in my basement.... Oh my God this is getting so bad!..... We will never get out of this!.... La La La La La....

 

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How do you manage to get your bed into the basement without coming in contact with another human being? Typically moving a mattress and frame from top floor of the house to the bottom would be a challenging task without taking a major risk of getting within a few yards of another human being. Especially hauling it down a flight of stairs or two. There s an epidemic of people falling down stairs recently. Be careful and stay safe!

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Apparently the 90% effectiveness is a result of a dosing error and based on a much smaller sample. The larger study shows a 62% effectiveness.

 

Of course scientists are rushing to come up with theories why the smaller dose works better and will be using those results to win regulatory approval.

 

But perhaps all we are seeing in these initial results (that are wildly exceeding expectations) is sampling error and the true efficacy might be an awful lot lower.

 

All these initial results are based on only around 100 people contracting the disease.

 

Unfortunately with emergency use approval it is a lot harder to continue the trials because of ethical issues which mean you have to give the placebo group the vaccine.

 

But I assume at some point between the vaccine getting emergency use approval and approval for mass use there will be better data ?

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Apparently the 90% effectiveness is a result of a dosing error and based on a much smaller sample. The larger study shows a 62% effectiveness.

 

Of course scientists are rushing to come up with theories why the smaller dose works better and will be using those results to win regulatory approval.

 

But perhaps all we are seeing in these initial results (that are wildly exceeding expectations) is sampling error and the true efficacy might be an awful lot lower.

 

All these initial results are based on only around 100 people contracting the disease.

 

Unfortunately with emergency use approval it is a lot harder to continue the trials because of ethical issues which mean you have to give the placebo group the vaccine.

 

But I assume at some point between the vaccine getting emergency use approval and approval for mass use there will be better data ?

 

A smaller doses should not be more effective. I think in a clinical trial in Ph 1 or 2 (where different doses are tested) this type of response is typically a red flag, but then I haven’t looked at the data yet.

 

In any case, the bottom line is we now have 3 proven vaccines with more to come.

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https://www.ft.com/content/4583fbf8-b47c-4e78-8253-22efcfa4903a

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/business/coronavirus-vaccine-astrazeneca-oxford.html

 

Some more doubts cast on the Oxford vaccine data

 

Aside from being a much smaller subgroup the subgroup the 90% headline figure was derived from was made up of people under 55.

 

And it doesn't inspire confidence that the different doses were a result of a mistake rather than study design.

 

And a bit weird they were using a saline drip as the placebo in the Brazil trial. So not sure that would really count as a blinded trial.

 

Also a bit strange the way they combined two separate trials in different countries with different methods into a meta analysis.

 

Hopefully their US study will be a lot more rigorous and give a more clearcut indication of its effectiveness.

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You gotta wonder about people who think it’s a big joke to have 2,000+ deaths every day and a quarter million dead. I imagine there are thousands of doctors and nurses, who would not appreciate the humour, not to mention a few million members of deceased’s families. 

 

As the hospitals fill to capacity and medical staff are on the edge of exhaustion, people with other sicknesses and injuries face reduced care.

 

As the “flu” continues to spread, thousands flock to food banks.

 

Meanwhile as federal public health officials explicitly warn against gathering in groups,  Trump issues a proclamation calling for people to “gather” for the holidays.

 

Party on guys, party on.

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If women are mandated to wear bikini tops (so others aren't offended), is it so much to mandate a man to wear a mask during a pandemic so others aren't killed?

 

Where is the "cry freedom" when it comes to other articles of clothing?  No mask, no shirt, no shoes, no service.

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If women are mandated to wear bikini tops (so others aren't offended), is it so much to mandate a man to wear a mask during a pandemic so others aren't killed?

What did Chris Christie about mask say after meeting the virus? Never has so little been asked for the benefit of so many? Imagine if people actually have to do something mildly difficult.

 

On a side note, in my country of Canada women are not mandated to wear bikini tops. Because men can bear their chest so can women. Yet another reason to be proud to be Canadian  ;D. I just wish we had a longer warm season.

 

Here's hoping for a quick recovery Eric!

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https://www.ft.com/content/4583fbf8-b47c-4e78-8253-22efcfa4903a

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/business/coronavirus-vaccine-astrazeneca-oxford.html

 

Some more doubts cast on the Oxford vaccine data

 

Aside from being a much smaller subgroup the subgroup the 90% headline figure was derived from was made up of people under 55.

 

And it doesn't inspire confidence that the different doses were a result of a mistake rather than study design.

 

And a bit weird they were using a saline drip as the placebo in the Brazil trial. So not sure that would really count as a blinded trial.

 

Also a bit strange the way they combined two separate trials in different countries with different methods into a meta analysis.

 

Hopefully their US study will be a lot more rigorous and give a more clearcut indication of its effectiveness.

 

It is a head scratcher how you can make a mistake on dosage for something so significant as a COVID vaccine.

 

Of course NASA made a similar unimaginable  error losing the Mars climate orbiter failing to convert from English to metric.

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