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War risk between China and India is increasing dramatically


muscleman
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Both sides have been adding lots of militants along the entire China-India border but only Indian media have been reporting this.

 

People in the western world would think it is irrational for the war to break out because there is nothing to gain from it. But they probably don't understand the Chinese government. In the past, leaders used wars to grab power and gain full control of the army. The 1979 China-Vietnam war was the typical example for Xiaoping Deng to grab power.

 

The past presidents have been forcing army generals to state their loyalty to the president, and that created a big problem. When the next president came in power, he tries everything he could to remove these generals, and force the new generals to state their loyalty. Now with the current president, no generals want to state their loyalty anymore because they don't want to go to jail when the next president comes. So the current president is very upset with that. I think he may plan the China-India war on purpose for his personal gains.

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It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

 

It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol.

So if it is not India, which country else is a better target?

 

And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.

 

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That escalated quickly.

 

"India’s army said on Tuesday 20 of its soldiers had been killed in clashes with Chinese troops at a disputed border site, in a major escalation of a weeks-long standoff between the two Asian giants in the western Himalayas."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china/india-china-troops-clash-at-himalayan-border-casualties-on-both-sides-idUSKBN23N0ZU

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It is in China's best interest to create chaos so that India comes off as an unstable place for many businesses to pivot from China to India. The good thing right now is that India has a very strong leader so no bullying will work. If this escalates, it will be to Trump's advantage to really take on China or broker peace and look good. China is playing this multi prolonged warfare against India through Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. At some point, India  will say Fuck It and go on offensive even though it is not her nature. India (current ruling party) doesn't have a lot to loose at this stage, China surely does. Let's see what the next couple weeks bring.

 

It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

 

It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol.

So if it is not India, which country else is a better target?

 

And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.

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It is in China's best interest to create chaos so that India comes off as an unstable place for many businesses to pivot from China to India. The good thing right now is that India has a very strong leader so no bullying will work. If this escalates, it will be to Trump's advantage to really take on China or broker peace and look good. China is playing this multi prolonged warfare against India through Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. At some point, India  will say Fuck It and go on offensive even though it is not her nature. India (current ruling party) doesn't have a lot to loose at this stage, China surely does. Let's see what the next couple weeks bring.

 

It seems to me that if you wanted a war to tighten your grip on power, you might not pick a regional superpower with nuclear weapons and 1.3bn people as your enemy. Wouldn’t you pick someone weaker?

 

It seems to me that India is the best target. What else should China pick? Philiphines? That would be like an adult bullying a baby. Not something glory to talk about. Taiwan? That's too scary. US army may involve. No something China wants. Russia? Mongolia? No way lol.

So if it is not India, which country else is a better target?

 

And don't forget that China won the war against Indian invasion in 1962, even though the Indian army way outnumbered, with most of their Elite troops. It is natural to think that Xi wants history to repeat.

 

I think a China-Vietnam type of war in 1979 will be the play book. A quick war ending in weeks.

Back in 1962 India invaded this area with a lot of its elite troops, far outnumbered the Chinese army, but got defeated. I think the same could happen again.

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American intelligence believes 35 Chinese troops died, including one senior officer, a source familiar with that assessment tells U.S. News. The incident took place during a meeting in the mountainous region between the two sides – both of which had agreed to disarm – to determine how the two militaries would safely withdraw their presences from the region.

 

The meeting grew tense and resulted in a physical confrontation between the troops. According to the assessment, all of the casualties were from the use of batons and knives and from falls from the steep topography, the source says.

 

According to the U.S. assessment, the Chinese government considers the casualties among their troops as a humiliation for its armed forces and has not confirmed the numbers for fear of emboldening other adversaries, the source says.

 

The sources who spoke with the Times said 43 Chinese troops died in the fighting.

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades

 

-----------------

 

So it's esclating, but all casualties seems to be due to close priximity physical fights. Not really gun fights or anynthing like that.

 

I am pretty sure that both sides will try to find solution.

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American intelligence believes 35 Chinese troops died, including one senior officer, a source familiar with that assessment tells U.S. News. The incident took place during a meeting in the mountainous region between the two sides – both of which had agreed to disarm – to determine how the two militaries would safely withdraw their presences from the region.

 

The meeting grew tense and resulted in a physical confrontation between the troops. According to the assessment, all of the casualties were from the use of batons and knives and from falls from the steep topography, the source says.

 

According to the U.S. assessment, the Chinese government considers the casualties among their troops as a humiliation for its armed forces and has not confirmed the numbers for fear of emboldening other adversaries, the source says.

 

The sources who spoke with the Times said 43 Chinese troops died in the fighting.

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades

 

-----------------

 

So it's esclating, but all casualties seems to be due to close priximity physical fights. Not really gun fights or anynthing like that.

 

I am pretty sure that both sides will try to find solution.

 

The Chinese officials refused to disclose these numbers so far, which makes me think that the casualties is much higher than Indians and it would be a disgrace to disclose those.

 

I think the war risk has risen dramatically to 70% since yesterday, as Modi ordered big rallies across multiple Indian cities and carried the dead bodies of these Indian soldiers. Now the Indian people have been emotionally motivated, and there is very little room for Modi to back down his tough stance.

Then today, he ordered the Indian soldiers to use firearms at their own judgement without further need for approval.

 

On the China side, I think Xi wants the war to solidify his grab of power on the army.

So it seems like the stage is all set for the war.

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I think mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence actually go a long way insofar as a conflict between India and China is concerned, maybe even exceptionally so among former or current pairs of nuclear enemies. 

 

Granted I can never really get the game theory to work in my head, but I think it has a maybe irrationally pacific effect on both parties. 

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I think mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence actually go a long way insofar as a conflict between India and China is concerned, maybe even exceptionally so among former or current pairs of nuclear enemies. 

 

Granted I can never really get the game theory to work in my head, but I think it has a maybe irrationally pacific effect on both parties.

 

I think that (large scale) war between India and China is not going to happen.

 

But I also think that nuclear deterrence between India and China is much less guaranteed than it was between West and Soviet block. IMO both India and China could think that the war would not go nuclear because it would be regional and not "large scale".

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I think mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence actually go a long way insofar as a conflict between India and China is concerned, maybe even exceptionally so among former or current pairs of nuclear enemies. 

 

Granted I can never really get the game theory to work in my head, but I think it has a maybe irrationally pacific effect on both parties.

 

I think that (large scale) war between India and China is not going to happen.

 

But I also think that nuclear deterrence between India and China is much less guaranteed than it was between West and Soviet block. IMO both India and China could think that the war would not go nuclear because it would be regional and not "large scale".

 

That's why I find the game theory a little confusing.  For deterrence to work (meaning, for some degree of bloody conventional war to be less likely than it would have been if neither party had nuclear weapons), you ought to be committed making a first strike under at least some circumstances.  I suspect strictly regional wars that don't percolate elsewhere because each party actually believes the other might make a first nuclear strike if they encroach too much somehow must be limited to periodic conflagrations. 

 

 

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My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

 

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

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My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

 

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

 

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

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My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

 

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

 

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

 

I don't know for sure. Here's my educated guess. India is militarily inferior to China. There is no anti Chinese sentiments in India (other than the cheap goods impression). The ruling party will get more political mileage if they bully the weaker Pakistan, and the anti Pakistan sentiments is high in India. A war with China will also weaken India's position against Pakistan. So it does not make sense for India for initiating an aggression against China.

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My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

 

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

 

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

 

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

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My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

 

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

 

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

 

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

 

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.

However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

 

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.

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My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

 

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

 

This is not likely because it will make businesses think China is so unstable that they should move out.

Not everything is motivated by economic reasons in non-capitalism countries.

 

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My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

 

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

 

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

 

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

 

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.

However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

 

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.

 

 

muscle, I give you a lot of credit for calling it like it is and not having a lot of bias from your home country. That is rare but it is appreciated.

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My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

 

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

 

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

 

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

 

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.

However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

 

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.

 

 

muscle, I give you a lot of credit for calling it like it is and not having a lot of bias from your home country. That is rare but it is appreciated.

 

Thanks.

 

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.

They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.

That's invasion. It is ugly.

 

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

 

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My hypothesis for the recent Chinese aggression is as follows.

 

After the covid issue, many countries and corporations are thinking of moving the manufacturing outside of China. India is a potential candidate where the manufacturing could go to. China definitely sees this as a threat to their business interests, and wants the world to think India is not a stable country by creating a war like situation. As per the saying goes, "no matter what the political reasons are given for any war, the underlying reason is always economic.".

 

How do you know the Chinese were the aggressors? It always takes two parties to get a bar fight and finding out who started it is usually an exercise in futility.

 

Isn't China building islands in South China Sea to claim more territory? Trying to push around Hong Kong, Taiwan? Who is India trying to take over?

 

As far as I understand, the reason for the China-India conflict is because India is building airports and highways near its border and China threatened a war to stop India from building those, because China was not happy that India could use these facilities to quickly move troops to the border if a war breaks out.

However, China already built the high speed trail and highway network near this border on its side, and India is building the highway and airport in its own territory, not in the questionable territory.

 

But that's just the excuse. I think the real reason is that Xi wants a war to grab full control of the army, and there is no negotiation with India that could give him this.

 

 

muscle, I give you a lot of credit for calling it like it is and not having a lot of bias from your home country. That is rare but it is appreciated.

 

Thanks.

 

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.

They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.

That's invasion. It is ugly.

 

Now I understand why the Chinese government remained silent on this matter now. If it speaks publicly about what happened, since an invasion actually happened, it has to do something about it. Otherwise its people will be pissed off. The fact that China wants to down play this invasion makes me think they don't want a war yet.

 

If that is true, that is a seriously dumb move by the Indians. While both sides will suffer in a war, India will have it much worse given its more fragile economy and also given its rapidly worsening COVID situation.

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Thanks.

 

I now lower the probability of war to 5% after learning more details.

They first had an accident in the disputed territory and 3 Indian soldiers fell off the cliff and died, and the Chinese army promptly retreated. Then the Indian soldiers vowed to revenge, and they took big blade weapons and went into the actual Chinese territory, not the disputed territory, and killed 40 Chinese soldiers. 17 of the Indian soldiers died in the fight.

That's invasion. It is ugly.

 

What is your source of information? It's hard to get the true info on these issues.

 

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