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War risk


muscleman
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COVID is being discussed here extensively but not war. I have a feeling that the possibility of a war in Taiwan has increased from 0% to at least 1%.

I haven't seen any news reports in English so I'll post the Chinese version here.

This guy has been reporting the first hand information on COVID since last December, so I would think his reporting on the war exercise is also good.

 

 

Basically, there was a massive military exercise starting from yesterday until July for various items like invasion of an island, attacking a carrier and defending Beijing. I think it is pretty crazy.

 

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Why do you think it was 0% before?

 

Because a lot of Chinese corrupt officials have their kids and assets parked in the US. If the war starts, their assets will be counterfeited by the US government. They will do everything they can to stabilize events.

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Why do you think it was 0% before?

 

Because a lot of Chinese corrupt officials have their kids and assets parked in the US. If the war starts, their assets will be counterfeited by the US government. They will do everything they can to stabilize events.

 

Seems like that's not gone and not zero, but I agree risk has been increasing. Just don't think it ever was zero.

 

US has also tremendous dependence on Taiwan for electronics (TSMC, etc), and would hurt itself a lot in any conflict, like China.

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China wants total control of the South China Sea - any action against Taiwan will be a problem for Korea, Japan, Philippines,etc.

The US will have a real problem with any escalation against Taiwan.

 

There is no reason to think the US would escalate anything with Taiwan. Taiwan wants freedom. China wants "One-China."

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If i had to pick highest probability of armed conflict it would be an oil country like Libya or even Iran. The longer oil stays low, combined with a possible resurgence of the virus In the fall, the greater the odds of armed conflict.

 

Also, if down in the polls in Sept an easy way to mobilize base is to be involved in armed conflict. Americans will rally around the flag/President. Low cost and high reward. Given the way politics is done today in the US this is also highly rational and easily justifiable. Win at all costs. Morals? Ethics? Right? Does not matter. ‘The alternative is so much worse’. Anything can be easily justified :-)

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China wants total control of the South China Sea - any action against Taiwan will be a problem for Korea, Japan, Philippines,etc.

The US will have a real problem with any escalation against Taiwan.

 

There is no reason to think the US would escalate anything with Taiwan. Taiwan wants freedom. China wants "One-China."

 

 

I'm saying Chinese aggression against Taiwan would be met with US force, just as other allies in the area. All the allies

have reason to fear China's expansion into the South China Sea.

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China wants total control of the South China Sea - any action against Taiwan will be a problem for Korea, Japan, Philippines,etc.

The US will have a real problem with any escalation against Taiwan.

 

There is no reason to think the US would escalate anything with Taiwan. Taiwan wants freedom. China wants "One-China."

 

 

I'm saying Chinese aggression against Taiwan would be met with US force, just as other allies in the area. All the allies

have reason to fear China's expansion into the South China Sea.

 

Agreed.

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The US and Taiwan would be allies against China in all likelihood.

 

And everyone would lose.

 

No, Liberty (the concept) would win. ;)

 

How naive you are. You think China would come out of a world war more democratic? You think liberty in the US would increase in the face of nuclear war? You think Taiwan wouldn't be potentially destroyed? You think dead people are free?

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/15/tech/tsmc-arizona-chip-factory-intl-hnk/index.html

 

Trump isn't all bad. Even if this required some a lot of handouts, probably a better use of taxpayer's money than other things (unless it turns out like Foxconn in WI which is certainly a possibility).

 

What exactly did Trump's administration do here? The article you posted does not mention anything.

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The US and Taiwan would be allies against China in all likelihood.

 

And everyone would lose.

 

No, Liberty (the concept) would win. ;)

 

How naive you are. You think China would come out of a world war more democratic? You think liberty in the US would increase in the face of nuclear war? You think Taiwan wouldn't be potentially destroyed? You think dead people are free?

 

Didn't Germany and Japan come out of a world war more democratic?

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The US and Taiwan would be allies against China in all likelihood.

 

And everyone would lose.

 

No, Liberty (the concept) would win. ;)

 

How naive you are. You think China would come out of a world war more democratic? You think liberty in the US would increase in the face of nuclear war? You think Taiwan wouldn't be potentially destroyed? You think dead people are free?

 

Didn't Germany and Japan come out of a world war more democratic?

 

East or West Germany?

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Off topic but good article today on Taiwan's Vice President. He's a Johns Hopkins trained epidemiologist, a virus expert. President has a PHD in Law from london School of Economics. Pres and VP are both very smart. Imagine that?

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The US and Taiwan would be allies against China in all likelihood.

 

And everyone would lose.

 

No, Liberty (the concept) would win. ;)

 

How naive you are. You think China would come out of a world war more democratic? You think liberty in the US would increase in the face of nuclear war? You think Taiwan wouldn't be potentially destroyed? You think dead people are free?

 

Didn't Germany and Japan come out of a world war more democratic?

 

East or West Germany?

 

West for sure. You could argue East too.

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/15/tech/tsmc-arizona-chip-factory-intl-hnk/index.html

 

Trump isn't all bad. Even if this required some a lot of handouts, probably a better use of taxpayer's money than other things (unless it turns out like Foxconn in WI which is certainly a possibility).

 

What exactly did Trump's administration do here? The article you posted does not mention anything.

 

Any time now he'll take credit for it.

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