randomep Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Testing is coming along. Abbott has a test that can give a result in as little as 5 minutes. I also ran across this article about an at-home test. We could also really use antibody tests. One of the treatments being investigated proving that it helps somewhat would also be a huge plus. I think there is a path to decent scenarios. In the short term, I'm not sure. I'm somewhat optimistic/hopeful that we'll be in reasonable shape to contain it in the fall. If only Theranos was around.... it's a shame they shut down...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised. Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming. As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement. We will create makeshift hospitals. And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare. Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world. It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. Change is inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 John Hjorth, I am not making any judgements. Just reporting. It's going to be very interesting seeing how things progress in Sweden and Denmark... If in 2-4 weeks there is no mortality difference between the countries - what then? Skewed reporting is making judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised. Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming. As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement. We will create makeshift hospitals. And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare. Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world. It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. Change is inevitable. You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you don’t think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60’s impacted the future of this city. It’s naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 The worrisome aspect is healthcare systems being overrun. When that happens, normal lifesaving treatments for heart attacks, strokes, cancer etc... are compromised. Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming. As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement. We will create makeshift hospitals. And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare. Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world. It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. Change is inevitable. You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you don’t think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60’s impacted the future of this city. It’s naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee. And you are making theories without any valid observations to back it up. In the last month, I have notice a sense of unity and cooperation like I've never seen. These are my observations: 1. senate voted 96-0 to pass a bill 2. Kerry says he agrees with Trump! 3. When I pass a person on the sidewalk, one person will hope on the street and politely acknowledge each other, knowing that we are doing this not out of disrespect but for a common purpose 4. Nobody is rioting, there is no blaming (ya the sniping at Trump is irrelevant in my book); Chinese people aren't being lynched in America 5. 600,000 people died in America in 1918; I just saw an interview of a survivor, from a southern village of 200, she said it brought the community together 6. Germans are airlifting French patients to their hospitals, and the Dr. being interviewed said we got to help each other as Europeans; TBH I felt he was almost saying this is to make up for what we did to you in WWII. 7. Chinese specialists are offering help to Europe and America. 8. Thousands of medical professionals are flying to hotspots like NYC. I cannot remember a time where there was this amount of goodwill. And it is totally logical. This is not a disease that picks on the unfortunate and the poor. World leaders are getting it more than poor less-travelled people. There is nobody to blame. We are all in this together. If you keep yourself insulated from the virus at my expense, you are still in danger because I can pass it to you! There will be 2nd order effects. Cruise ship businesses are toast. There will be less airline travel. Healthcare spending will go up all over the world, I can imagine America may want to have one or two less aircraft carrier in exchange for some more N95 masks and hospitals. And you mention mellinenials, IMO they are an entitled bunch, and this is their WWII, their Vietnam, instead of constantly bitching at the establishment and the patriarchal society, they are learning they must take responsibility and do their part, like stay at home when the authorities tell you to. anyway enough of rant, BTW this is a great time for the market, it's about time a crash like this happened! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure... The Inevitable Zombie Apocalypse https://www.facebook.com/notes/john-ringo/the-inevitable-zombie-apocalypse/10150871745012055 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Good site for data https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#daily-cases Excellent resources. The severe and critical cases rising on an exponential scale has to be concerning though - no? 15k cases and rising logarithmically. Now up to 24k cases after a single day. And now 27k cases, though that appears to be tapering the logarithmic growth assuming this is accurate data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cobafdek Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Anybody opposed to this idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aurelius Posted March 30, 2020 Author Share Posted March 30, 2020 Press conference with the Danish Prime Minister Some of the highlights: -Social distancing is working. Normal flu is more or less non existing. -Number of infected people has risen slower than expected/feared. -Expecting to gradually open up in about 2 weeks. Though emphasizing that the problem hasn’t gone away and social distancing is still needed over the next 2 weeks. -The virus still hasn’t topped - worse is yet to come. -Virus not going away. Expectation/strategy: more and more people will get the virus and become immune. -A LOT more testing. Two kinds of tests: 1)Are you infected with Covid19, 2) have you had Covid19 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Anybody opposed to this idea? Nobody has ever been opposed to infrastructure spending. It just never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Anybody opposed to this idea? Nobody has ever been opposed to infrastructure spending. It just never happens. Anybody can explain why? (I'm fine if it's in Politics section). I've heard bipartisan support to infra spending for hmmm 10+ years now? And nothing? Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrispy Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 How fast can we start an infrastructure project? Do we have drawings laying around for a beltway that we can blow the dust off and start by Easter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Anybody opposed to this idea? I'm in favor of infrastructure improvements yes. Regardless of the impact on the economy and jobs, America needs some form of vast infrastructure improvement. This one of the things Trump ran on and it still hasn't happened yet. We're absolutely going to need to see higher taxes though to fund it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 A couple of reasons: Shortage of skilled workers: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/05/06/the_2_trillion_infrastructure_plan_is_never_going_to_happen_103726.html There is no such thing as "shovel-ready" projects: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/happened-shovel-ready-infrastructure-projects-212123861.html And this is just the stuff that is publicly visible. My uneducated but jaded view is a boatload of shitty politicking going on behind the scenes in terms of what States get what, what concessions are made, etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 A couple of reasons: Shortage of skilled workers: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/05/06/the_2_trillion_infrastructure_plan_is_never_going_to_happen_103726.html There is no such thing as "shovel-ready" projects: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/happened-shovel-ready-infrastructure-projects-212123861.html And this is just the stuff that is publicly visible. My uneducated but jaded view is a boatload of shitty politicking going on behind the scenes in terms of what States get what, what concessions are made, etc. etc. Skilled workers shouldn’t be a problem. I do agree it’s the idea time to do infrastructure, with resources being idle otherwise. That’s how the Golden Gate bridge and the Hoover damn was build during the Great Depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 A couple of reasons: Shortage of skilled workers: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/05/06/the_2_trillion_infrastructure_plan_is_never_going_to_happen_103726.html There is no such thing as "shovel-ready" projects: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/happened-shovel-ready-infrastructure-projects-212123861.html And this is just the stuff that is publicly visible. My uneducated but jaded view is a boatload of shitty politicking going on behind the scenes in terms of what States get what, what concessions are made, etc. etc. Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem. The article quoted by LC seems to say that "Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem" is a myth. But what about all those people fired from factories in Midwest? IDK. Maybe they are not skilled enough? Maybe they are in a wrong place (labor geographic mobility is way lower than needed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 A couple of reasons: Shortage of skilled workers: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2019/05/06/the_2_trillion_infrastructure_plan_is_never_going_to_happen_103726.html There is no such thing as "shovel-ready" projects: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/happened-shovel-ready-infrastructure-projects-212123861.html And this is just the stuff that is publicly visible. My uneducated but jaded view is a boatload of shitty politicking going on behind the scenes in terms of what States get what, what concessions are made, etc. etc. Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem. The article quoted by LC seems to say that "Skilled worked shouldn’t be a problem" is a myth. But what about all those people fired from factories in Midwest? IDK. Maybe they are not skilled enough? Maybe they are in a wrong place (labor geographic mobility is way lower than needed). Or all the O&G rubber necks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill. It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country! Phase 4 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245000074167541761 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Awesome one Castanza "Rubberneck" now all you need to do is look into a mirror HAHA I have my eye on you dude as you our very offensive here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Anybody opposed to this idea? Nobody has ever been opposed to infrastructure spending. It just never happens. Anybody can explain why? (I'm fine if it's in Politics section). I've heard bipartisan support to infra spending for hmmm 10+ years now? And nothing? Why? It's neither party's top priority. There's also a philosophical difference between the parties in how it should be done. Dems generally favor full government spending and then government ownership of the assets built. GOP likely favors "public-private partnerships" that would end up with the assets in private hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cobafdek Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Anybody opposed to this idea? Nobody has ever been opposed to infrastructure spending. It just never happens. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245000074167541761 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Same with Obama's 800B infrastructure plan of which like, 60B? was actually spent on projects. Same story, new decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Awesome one Castanza "Rubberneck" now all you need to do is look into a mirror HAHA I have my eye on you dude as you our very offensive here! Please go seek help. But I meant to say "Roughneck" which admittedly has a much different connotation. But is widely used in the industry to describe the low men on the totem pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cobafdek Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Same with Obama's 800B infrastructure plan of which like, 60B? was actually spent on projects. Same story, new decade. Pessimistic, naive empiricism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 K doc Castanza thanks for the quick and dirty evaluation I shall stay away from you as you clealry our my Lord ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now