drzola Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Nice Time series graph see link below; https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ET1FmRRWkAI4QKw?format=jpg&name=large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drzola Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 How to cook crow quick and dirty recipe Cook in boiling salt water for 10 minutes. Alternately put corn (3 pieces), green peppers (3 pieces) and cherry tomatoes (3) along with 4 pieces of crow meat on each skewer. Use 1 mushroom to top each skewer. Brush with melted butter and place on preheated grill for about 4 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minten Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Pandemics destroy capital and come with near-term economic pain. We can't pretend that away but we can save lives for a few hundred thousand a piece. Easiest deal in the world to make. You think? Just want to point out it's a deal we rarely ever make in any other circumstance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Investor20 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Pandemics destroy capital and come with near-term economic pain. We can't pretend that away but we can save lives for a few hundred thousand a piece. Easiest deal in the world to make. You think? Just want to point out it's a deal we rarely ever make in any other circumstance. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease? There may be more targeted ways to beat the pandemic. Dr. Katz is president of True Health Initiative and the founding director of the Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center. Yale Griffin Prevention is funded by CDC. I posted earlier an article by Prof. John Ioannidis, Professor of both disease prevention and statistics at Stanford with similar thinking. Economy is also important. Lots of people can go without food without jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Pandemics destroy capital and come with near-term economic pain. We can't pretend that away but we can save lives for a few hundred thousand a piece. Easiest deal in the world to make. You think? Just want to point out it's a deal we rarely ever make in any other circumstance. We usually spend a magnitude more? Insurance usually values lives around $2.5m. USG will spend magnitudes of that rescuing people. I'm also weary of listening to people who didn't see the obvious coming now making choices on how to act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-24/on-coronavirus-wartime-president-trump-lacks-leadership Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 We do have to get back at some point but the economy isn't going to recover instantly if stay at home not mandated. Restaurant eating and entertainment spend will severely decline either way now that the population has been educated. Savings rate will sky rocket in the face of layoffs. No matter what we do or did, we were going into a severe recession and UE was going to skyrocket. Trump's ideas are and have been selfish and short sighted. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we are computer keystrokes away from getting money to people. Stay the course. It would be foolish to allow mass death just to find we are still getting a severe recession either way. It is foolish to believe that the economy can be saved by descending into something worse than a 2nd world country with hundred thousand if not millions dying. It makes no sense and is more than foolish thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 We do have to get back at some point but the economy isn't going to recover instantly if stay at home not mandated. Restaurant eating and entertainment spend will severely decline either way now that the population has been educated. Savings rate will sky rocket in the face of layoffs. No matter what we do or did, we were going into a severe recession and UE was going to skyrocket. Trump's ideas are and have been selfish and short sighted. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we are computer keystrokes away from getting money to people. Stay the course. It would be foolish to allow mass death just to find we are still getting a severe recession either way. It is foolish to believe that the economy can be saved by descending into something worse than a 2nd world country with hundred thousand if not millions dying. It makes no sense and is more than foolish thinking. Going back to pre-quarantine days should not be equivalent to doing nothing on the healthcare front. While resuming regular economic activities, the government could pump money into increasing the healthcare capacity (build more hospitals, produce more equipment, conduct more tests, etc.) while focusing on protecting the vulnerables (distributing protective items for free and delivery services for essential goods, etc.). Instead of using the money for bailouts as the economy tanks, we can use it to actually fight the fire. If this is really a long-term crisis, we need to take a more active approach than a passive one. It's good that we are trying to slow the pace of the outbreak right now to buy us some time, but at some point, we will have to make the switch in the strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 We do have to get back at some point but the economy isn't going to recover instantly if stay at home not mandated. Restaurant eating and entertainment spend will severely decline either way now that the population has been educated. Savings rate will sky rocket in the face of layoffs. No matter what we do or did, we were going into a severe recession and UE was going to skyrocket. Trump's ideas are and have been selfish and short sighted. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we are computer keystrokes away from getting money to people. Stay the course. It would be foolish to allow mass death just to find we are still getting a severe recession either way. It is foolish to believe that the economy can be saved by descending into something worse than a 2nd world country with hundred thousand if not millions dying. It makes no sense and is more than foolish thinking. There isn't going to be an early restart, and the economy is NOT going to suddenly 'snap back' to what it was, What happens when we see images of the people on respirators, the medical staff collapsing, the full medical and cruise ships, the empty closets of supplies, the trucks removing bodies .... in NY, SF, LA, etc. Messaging that 'Covid-19 is no worse than vehicle fatalities' - is not going to drown out the images and calls of 'granny killer'. Economy versus 'granny killer', which message wins ?? It is much more likely that Trump RE is being pushed to collapse, within weeks/months at best. Push through an economic re-start, and maybe they recover; Trump loses the presidency but keeps the empire. Continue as is, and Trump loses BOTH the presidency AND the empire. When business people see their businesses collapsing - they typically do stupid things. Is that not EXACTLY what we are seeing here? Floating trial zeppelin balloons. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 We do have to get back at some point but the economy isn't going to recover instantly if stay at home not mandated. Restaurant eating and entertainment spend will severely decline either way now that the population has been educated. Savings rate will sky rocket in the face of layoffs. No matter what we do or did, we were going into a severe recession and UE was going to skyrocket. Trump's ideas are and have been selfish and short sighted. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we are computer keystrokes away from getting money to people. Stay the course. It would be foolish to allow mass death just to find we are still getting a severe recession either way. It is foolish to believe that the economy can be saved by descending into something worse than a 2nd world country with hundred thousand if not millions dying. It makes no sense and is more than foolish thinking. There isn't going to be an early restart, and the economy is NOT going to suddenly 'snap back' to what it was, What happens when we see images of the people on respirators, the medical staff collapsing, the full medical and cruise ships, the empty closets of supplies, the trucks removing bodies .... in NY, SF, LA, etc. Messaging that 'Covid-19 is no worse than vehicle fatalities' - is not going to drown out the images and calls of 'granny killer'. Economy versus 'granny killer', which message wins ?? It is much more likely that Trump RE is being pushed to collapse, within weeks/months at best. Push through an economic re-start, and maybe they recover; Trump loses the presidency but keeps the empire. Continue as is, and Trump loses BOTH the presidency AND the empire. When business people see their businesses collapsing - they typically do stupid things. Is that not EXACTLY what we are seeing here? Floating trial zeppelin balloons. SD Absolutely. Who here is going out like pre-virus when the lockdown advisory (unlikely the coasts will go along either way...) ends, knowing that a bunch of people still might have it and get us sick? The muddle through option seems to be the worst of all. We can do a full lockdown and eat the pain, or don't do it at all and accept the deaths. Both of those have consequences, but the middle option seems to be the worst - don't minimize deaths and at the same time ensure an L recovery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Doing the opposite of what all the people who know what they're talking about say and what all the other successful countries in this crisis have done isn't going to be a good idea. It should be criminal negligence to totally destroy a country's healthcare capability and kill a large number of its citizens because it may help with someone's election/personal hotel and resort businesses (but probably not even that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 We do have to get back at some point but the economy isn't going to recover instantly if stay at home not mandated. Restaurant eating and entertainment spend will severely decline either way now that the population has been educated. Savings rate will sky rocket in the face of layoffs. No matter what we do or did, we were going into a severe recession and UE was going to skyrocket. Trump's ideas are and have been selfish and short sighted. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we are computer keystrokes away from getting money to people. Stay the course. It would be foolish to allow mass death just to find we are still getting a severe recession either way. It is foolish to believe that the economy can be saved by descending into something worse than a 2nd world country with hundred thousand if not millions dying. It makes no sense and is more than foolish thinking. Going back to pre-quarantine days should not be equivalent to doing nothing on the healthcare front. While resuming regular economic activities, the government could pump money into increasing the healthcare capacity (build more hospitals, produce more equipment, conduct more tests, etc.) while focusing on protecting the vulnerables (distributing protective items for free and delivery services for essential goods, etc.). Instead of using the money for bailouts as the economy tanks, we can use it to actually fight the fire. If this is really a long-term crisis, we need to take a more active approach than a passive one. It's good that we are trying to slow the pace of the outbreak right now to buy us some time, but at some point, we will have to make the switch in the strategy. We are when we say lockdowns through end of March or first week of April. Schools closed for the year. Large events will probably take a year to come back but we will progressively allow bigger and bigger events. Cuomo didn't fully lock down NYC. Every state declaring certain jobs essential (such as HC manufacturing). We have factories slowly switching over. Temporary hospitals being created. We are seeing food distribution return to equilibrium. Planting is occurring at farms all throughout the country. Wall Street performed incredibly given the shocks thrown at it. Life is coming back. It's just hard to see at the moment. I think that's the difficulty of looking at equity prices right now. The economy will come back, in time. Will economic returns be as high as 2019 and before? Probably not, to be honest. Post-Spanish Flu, one of the few consequences was a decline in returns. Profits generally come back but margins/returns contract for a period of time. The high level of corporate debt right now further drove the decline in stock prices. Equity prices are not economic activity though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minten Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 We usually spend a magnitude more? Insurance usually values lives around $2.5m. USG will spend magnitudes of that rescuing people. Number of people dying of malaria is about 400.000 per year. Let's say we value these people's lives at a conservative 100K. So, say, we invest 40 billion a year in trying to save these people. According to the Bill Gates Foundations a 100 billion investment will eradicate the disease forever, so that's what, 2,5 years, and after that zero deaths forever. Atmittedly, a very poor back-of-the-napkin calculation, but so is everybody's virus math as well. And btw, those dying of malaria are mostly children. Those dying of this virus are mostly old people. If you re-do the math based on life expectancy the situation becomes even more ridiculous. But will we invest those kinds of money, or even a fraction? Nah, probably not. We don't see them dying, and those dying will never be us, so why bother. Not saying Trump is right with his "let's get back to work and fuck it"-attitude, but the hypocrisy about how much a life is worth gets to me sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Doing the opposite of what all the people who know what they're talking about say and what all the other successful countries in this crisis have done isn't going to be a good idea. It should be criminal negligence to totally destroy a country's healthcare capability and kill a large number of its citizens because it may help with someone's election/personal hotel and resort businesses (but probably not even that). We should listen to them but what gives the health care experts the absolute authority over everything? By listening only to their advice, you'd be doing the opposite of what experts say from other domains. A hypothetical and somewhat stupid question... but what would you do if health care experts advised that global warming is good for preventing pandemics in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 We usually spend a magnitude more? Insurance usually values lives around $2.5m. USG will spend magnitudes of that rescuing people. Number of people dying of malaria is about 400.000 per year. Let's say we value these people's lives at a conservative 100K. So, say, we invest 40 billion a year in trying to save these people. According to the Bill Gates Foundations a 100 billion investment will eradicate the disease forever, so that's what, 2,5 years, and after that zero deaths forever. Atmittedly, a very poor back-of-the-napkin calculation, but so is everybody's virus math as well. And btw, those dying of malaria are mostly children. Those dying of this virus are mostly old people. If you re-do the math based on life expectancy the situation becomes even more ridiculous. But will we invest those kinds of money, or even a fraction? Nah, probably not. We don't see them dying, and those dying will never be us, so why bother. Not saying Trump is right with his "let's get back to work and fuck it"-attitude, but the hypocrisy about how much a life is worth gets to me sometimes. Yes, this is an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Doing the opposite of what all the people who know what they're talking about say and what all the other successful countries in this crisis have done isn't going to be a good idea. It should be criminal negligence to totally destroy a country's healthcare capability and kill a large number of its citizens because it may help with someone's election/personal hotel and resort businesses (but probably not even that). How do you explain Taiwan, SK, Japan? They are still open for business. You are just ignoring facts that don't suit your argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Not saying Trump is right with his "let's get back to work and fuck it"-attitude, but the hypocrisy about how much a life is worth gets to me sometimes. I used to think the Republican party was 'pro-life'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Doing the opposite of what all the people who know what they're talking about say and what all the other successful countries in this crisis have done isn't going to be a good idea. It should be criminal negligence to totally destroy a country's healthcare capability and kill a large number of its citizens because it may help with someone's election/personal hotel and resort businesses (but probably not even that). How do you explain Taiwan, SK, Japan? They are still open for business. You are just ignoring facts that don't suit your argument. No one understands Japan right now, but Taiwan and SK almost immediately closed schools, cancelled large events, and tested. Acting early would've shortened our lockdown period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Doing the opposite of what all the people who know what they're talking about say and what all the other successful countries in this crisis have done isn't going to be a good idea. It should be criminal negligence to totally destroy a country's healthcare capability and kill a large number of its citizens because it may help with someone's election/personal hotel and resort businesses (but probably not even that). How do you explain Taiwan, SK, Japan? They are still open for business. You are just ignoring facts that don't suit your argument. They did what the experts said, they just did it faster and harder, so now they could reopen (while staying very vigilant with testing, contact tracing, lots of mask wearing, social distancing, etc). That ship has sailed for the US. These countries prove my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 No one understands Japan right now Yeah, I'm talking to friend in Japan right now and it's super weird. They don't test. There is pretty much no social isolation. Trains are packed. Masks are used, but not by majority and even people using masks take them off, wipe face with hands, etc. It's just super weird that they don't have superspread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 https://old.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/fnszg7/serious_when_did_covid19_get_real_for_you/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Doing the opposite of what all the people who know what they're talking about say and what all the other successful countries in this crisis have done isn't going to be a good idea. It should be criminal negligence to totally destroy a country's healthcare capability and kill a large number of its citizens because it may help with someone's election/personal hotel and resort businesses (but probably not even that). How do you explain Taiwan, SK, Japan? They are still open for business. You are just ignoring facts that don't suit your argument. They did what the experts said, they just did it faster and harder, so now they could reopen (while staying very vigilant with testing, contact tracing, lots of mask wearing, social distancing, etc). That ship has sailed for the US. These countries prove my point. Does it prove your point? I thought your point was that it was impossible for the US to open up again. Yet these countries have remained open. I don't think it will immediately go back to business as usual, of course there will be additional testing. I think the point is it can be done. Given it is an emergency the US will adopt similar procedures. If you want to take the additional procedures and wave it as proof that you are right, then please do so but that is what I see happening. The bigger risk is countries like Canada that remain in lockdown and wreck their economy. To me, this rhymes with 9-11. There were all these fears of a million vulnerabilities in the US. Airports, ports, bridges, power-grids, etc. They opened up. They put in place additional security. It will work here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Doing the opposite of what all the people who know what they're talking about say and what all the other successful countries in this crisis have done isn't going to be a good idea. It should be criminal negligence to totally destroy a country's healthcare capability and kill a large number of its citizens because it may help with someone's election/personal hotel and resort businesses (but probably not even that). How do you explain Taiwan, SK, Japan? They are still open for business. You are just ignoring facts that don't suit your argument. They did what the experts said, they just did it faster and harder, so now they could reopen (while staying very vigilant with testing, contact tracing, lots of mask wearing, social distancing, etc). That ship has sailed for the US. These countries prove my point. In South Korea, the medical experts at the very beginning recommended the president to close the border with China. This didn't happen. It turns out, the major outbreak occurred because of a single superspreader in the religious sect who has never visited China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 No one understands Japan right now Yeah, I'm talking to friend in Japan right now and it's super weird. They don't test. There is pretty much no social isolation. Trains are packed. Masks are used, but not by majority and even people using masks take them off, wipe face with hands, etc. It's just super weird that they don't have superspread. Interesting others there see it as weird too. I was just reading something about this last night and the paper concluded they had no idea why Japan hasn't taken off. I guess it's better to be lucky than good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy1 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 No one understands Japan right now Yeah, I'm talking to friend in Japan right now and it's super weird. They don't test. There is pretty much no social isolation. Trains are packed. Masks are used, but not by majority and even people using masks take them off, wipe face with hands, etc. It's just super weird that they don't have superspread. There is a Olympic game on the line. Some people believe that if it is decided the game is to be delayed to next year, they will do very different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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