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Thoughts on herd immunity

This post is for analytical purposes and political aspects have been cured. The link to investments are: learning from mistakes and using a side-by-side-template approach described by Mr. Ben Graham to compare investments over time. My life is essentially a series of mistakes and subsequent studies of them and Mr. Graham's teaching is an example of an investment mantra based on survival from mistakes.

 

It seems the US is reaching functional herd immunity with the present set of heterogenous restrictions in place. The Swedish case is interesting. They just released population antibody prevalence results with trends indicating that natural and 'pure' herd immunity is not in sight with antibody levels around one third. And they are, at this point, 'adjusting' restrictions.

https://www.dn.se/sthlm/var-tredje-testad-stockholmare-har-antikroppar/

It has become fairly clear that their relatively different strategy has required a higher health-related cost for a very similar economic cost and they have recognized this to a large degree. They also adjusted along the way in order to improve. Even if the net outcome is relatively inferior, one aspect of their approach was sustainability. Compare to the Czech Republic.

 

                                                              Sweden              Czech

population (M)                                          10.3                  10.7

GDP per capita (k)                                    51.4                  23.1

Covid-19 deaths  (k per 100k)                    65.6                  75.0   

European ranking*                                      #7                    #6

*ranking in the race for Covid-19 deaths per capita in EEA + UK

 

Czech entered the race in good shape and (personal opinion) some of this was due to luck but it has entered a phase which will make it a clear winner. i would bet the GDP per capita differential will persist and perhaps even widen.

See attached file for a visual.

Some countries have followed a path to herd immunity at various levels of warp speed.

For those who believe that a virus is a spreading disease with real consequences and who appreciate visual effects, the following is interesting:

https://player.vimeo.com/video/466625351

Some people have started to retroactively look into this (ie the Sturgis motorcycle event, various rallies etc) and the potential conclusions are absolutely and relatively fascinating.

 

 

     

compare_Sweden_and_Czech.thumb.png.ca0ba3b27d9f9087c64ac71a800a1f90.png

Posted

I have covid-19 and tested 'negative', and so much for "common symptoms".

 

 

Thursday, November 19th:

Last Thursday morning, my wife and I noticed that we both had very mild sore throats and slight headaches, with no other symptoms except my wife had swollen lymph nodes in her arm pits (one of which was very tender) and she has never experienced that before.  We may have ignored the symptoms had  it not been for the fact that we were both experiencing the throat irritation and headaches at the same time.

 

We drove to the Roseville (California) Med7 and joined the line to be tested and waited for 5 hours before having both nostrils swabbed (ouch! ouch!).  While waiting in line I had a brief tingling in my lips and when that went away my fingertips began tingling, but that ended soon as well. 

 

We both fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Saturday, November 21st:

On Saturday I was called and told that I had a "negative" test result.  Our symptoms were basically the same as Thursday but we fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Sunday, November 22nd:

The next day, Sunday, my wife was called and told that she was "positive".  The reason for the extra delay for her phone call is that it takes special training to break the news and those people were busy on Saturday (are you fucking kidding me???) 

 

Up until this point, we had mild headaches that came and went and very slightly sore throats.  No fevers, no coughing, and no loss of taste or smell.  Although my wife is complaining of abdominal pain.

 

We both fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Monday, November 23nd:

Very early in the morning it became more difficult to breath for both of us, remedied by turning over on our stomachs in bed.  We went for a walk in the afternoon and that was a mistake -- a slight uphill and we had to take a break halfway up it.  Otherwise, still no fever or cough, no loss of taste/smell. 

 

I was tested again at 4pm because I want a documented 'positive' result in the event that I should need a hospital.

 

We fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Tuesday (November 24th))

Our lungs were both a bit worse, it was getting harder to breath but nothing too scary (like having books stacked on you chest).  My energy was returning last night but my wife was feeling more tired and she was reporting the worst headache she's ever had.  She received antibiotics for her abdominal pain (to treat a suspected UTI).

 

 

Wednesday (today):

this morning my breathing is significantly better, almost normal.  No other symptoms aside from a slightly scratchy throat.

 

How did we get this?

My wife's 17 yr old son has been staying with us as well for the past 10 days and he has symptoms too, complaining mostly of exhaustion (but no fever and no loss of taste/smell).  He told us he had a sore throat and cough before last Thursday, but we've never heard him cough and my wife says he's a hypochondriac. 

 

 

I forgot to mention we've had some strange olfactory disturbances.  Last Thursday, I smelled ammonia in the household and my wife from time to time says the place smells like cigarettes.

Posted

I have covid-19 and tested 'negative', and so much for "common symptoms".

 

 

Thursday, November 19th:

Last Thursday morning, my wife and I noticed that we both had very mild sore throats and slight headaches, with no other symptoms except my wife had swollen lymph nodes in her arm pits (one of which was very tender) and she has never experienced that before.  We may have ignored the symptoms had  it not been for the fact that we were both experiencing the throat irritation and headaches at the same time.

 

We drove to the Roseville (California) Med7 and joined the line to be tested and waited for 5 hours before having both nostrils swabbed (ouch! ouch!).  While waiting in line I had a brief tingling in my lips and when that went away my fingertips began tingling, but that ended soon as well. 

 

We both fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Saturday, November 21st:

On Saturday I was called and told that I had a "negative" test result.  Our symptoms were basically the same as Thursday but we fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Sunday, November 22nd:

The next day, Sunday, my wife was called and told that she was "positive".  The reason for the extra delay for her phone call is that it takes special training to break the news and those people were busy on Saturday (are you fucking kidding me???) 

 

Up until this point, we had mild headaches that came and went and very slightly sore throats.  No fevers, no coughing, and no loss of taste or smell.  Although my wife is complaining of abdominal pain.

 

We both fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Monday, November 23nd:

Very early in the morning it became more difficult to breath for both of us, remedied by turning over on our stomachs in bed.  We went for a walk in the afternoon and that was a mistake -- a slight uphill and we had to take a break halfway up it.  Otherwise, still no fever or cough, no loss of taste/smell. 

 

I was tested again at 4pm because I want a documented 'positive' result in the event that I should need a hospital.

 

We fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Tuesday (November 24th))

Our lungs were both a bit worse, it was getting harder to breath but nothing too scary (like having books stacked on you chest).  My energy was returning last night but my wife was feeling more tired and she was reporting the worst headache she's ever had.  She received antibiotics for her abdominal pain (to treat a suspected UTI).

 

 

Wednesday (today):

this morning my breathing is significantly better, almost normal.  No other symptoms aside from a slightly scratchy throat.

 

How did we get this?

My wife's 17 yr old son has been staying with us as well for the past 10 days and he has symptoms too, complaining mostly of exhaustion (but no fever and no loss of taste/smell).  He told us he had a sore throat and cough before last Thursday, but we've never heard him cough and my wife says he's a hypochondriac. 

 

 

I forgot to mention we've had some strange olfactory disturbances.  Last Thursday, I smelled ammonia in the household and my wife from time to time says the place smells like cigarettes.

 

Thanks for sharing. Hope you all feel fully better soon!

Posted

I have covid-19 and tested 'negative', and so much for "common symptoms".

 

 

Thursday, November 19th:

Last Thursday morning, my wife and I noticed that we both had very mild sore throats and slight headaches, with no other symptoms except my wife had swollen lymph nodes in her arm pits (one of which was very tender) and she has never experienced that before.  We may have ignored the symptoms had  it not been for the fact that we were both experiencing the throat irritation and headaches at the same time.

 

We drove to the Roseville (California) Med7 and joined the line to be tested and waited for 5 hours before having both nostrils swabbed (ouch! ouch!).  While waiting in line I had a brief tingling in my lips and when that went away my fingertips began tingling, but that ended soon as well. 

 

We both fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Saturday, November 21st:

On Saturday I was called and told that I had a "negative" test result.  Our symptoms were basically the same as Thursday but we fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Sunday, November 22nd:

The next day, Sunday, my wife was called and told that she was "positive".  The reason for the extra delay for her phone call is that it takes special training to break the news and those people were busy on Saturday (are you fucking kidding me???) 

 

Up until this point, we had mild headaches that came and went and very slightly sore throats.  No fevers, no coughing, and no loss of taste or smell.  Although my wife is complaining of abdominal pain.

 

We both fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Monday, November 23nd:

Very early in the morning it became more difficult to breath for both of us, remedied by turning over on our stomachs in bed.  We went for a walk in the afternoon and that was a mistake -- a slight uphill and we had to take a break halfway up it.  Otherwise, still no fever or cough, no loss of taste/smell. 

 

I was tested again at 4pm because I want a documented 'positive' result in the event that I should need a hospital.

 

We fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Tuesday (November 24th))

Our lungs were both a bit worse, it was getting harder to breath but nothing too scary (like having books stacked on you chest).  My energy was returning last night but my wife was feeling more tired and she was reporting the worst headache she's ever had.  She received antibiotics for her abdominal pain (to treat a suspected UTI).

 

 

Wednesday (today):

this morning my breathing is significantly better, almost normal.  No other symptoms aside from a slightly scratchy throat.

 

How did we get this?

My wife's 17 yr old son has been staying with us as well for the past 10 days and he has symptoms too, complaining mostly of exhaustion (but no fever and no loss of taste/smell).  He told us he had a sore throat and cough before last Thursday, but we've never heard him cough and my wife says he's a hypochondriac. 

 

 

I forgot to mention we've had some strange olfactory disturbances.  Last Thursday, I smelled ammonia in the household and my wife from time to time says the place smells like cigarettes.

 

Good to hear you're feeling better. Were there any differences between how you felt with this versus previous experiences with the cold or flu?

Posted

I have covid-19 and tested 'negative', and so much for "common symptoms".

 

 

Thursday, November 19th:

Last Thursday morning, my wife and I noticed that we both had very mild sore throats and slight headaches, with no other symptoms except my wife had swollen lymph nodes in her arm pits (one of which was very tender) and she has never experienced that before.  We may have ignored the symptoms had  it not been for the fact that we were both experiencing the throat irritation and headaches at the same time.

 

We drove to the Roseville (California) Med7 and joined the line to be tested and waited for 5 hours before having both nostrils swabbed (ouch! ouch!).  While waiting in line I had a brief tingling in my lips and when that went away my fingertips began tingling, but that ended soon as well. 

 

We both fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Saturday, November 21st:

On Saturday I was called and told that I had a "negative" test result.  Our symptoms were basically the same as Thursday but we fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Sunday, November 22nd:

The next day, Sunday, my wife was called and told that she was "positive".  The reason for the extra delay for her phone call is that it takes special training to break the news and those people were busy on Saturday (are you fucking kidding me???) 

 

Up until this point, we had mild headaches that came and went and very slightly sore throats.  No fevers, no coughing, and no loss of taste or smell.  Although my wife is complaining of abdominal pain.

 

We both fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Monday, November 23nd:

Very early in the morning it became more difficult to breath for both of us, remedied by turning over on our stomachs in bed.  We went for a walk in the afternoon and that was a mistake -- a slight uphill and we had to take a break halfway up it.  Otherwise, still no fever or cough, no loss of taste/smell. 

 

I was tested again at 4pm because I want a documented 'positive' result in the event that I should need a hospital.

 

We fall asleep earlier than usual.

 

Tuesday (November 24th))

Our lungs were both a bit worse, it was getting harder to breath but nothing too scary (like having books stacked on you chest).  My energy was returning last night but my wife was feeling more tired and she was reporting the worst headache she's ever had.  She received antibiotics for her abdominal pain (to treat a suspected UTI).

 

 

Wednesday (today):

this morning my breathing is significantly better, almost normal.  No other symptoms aside from a slightly scratchy throat.

 

How did we get this?

My wife's 17 yr old son has been staying with us as well for the past 10 days and he has symptoms too, complaining mostly of exhaustion (but no fever and no loss of taste/smell).  He told us he had a sore throat and cough before last Thursday, but we've never heard him cough and my wife says he's a hypochondriac. 

 

 

I forgot to mention we've had some strange olfactory disturbances.  Last Thursday, I smelled ammonia in the household and my wife from time to time says the place smells like cigarettes.

 

Good to hear you're feeling better. Were there any differences between how you felt with this versus previous experiences with the cold or flu?

 

Well, I don't have the vomiting, diarrhea, and fever that makes flu so terribly unpleasant.

 

Like a cold, I have a mild headache.  But I don't have the congestion associated with it.  I'm not coughing or sneezing.

 

The only thing about covid-19 (so far) which really stands out was the tightness in my chest and heavier breathing, and getting tired very easily from exertion.  But that's mostly gone now.

Posted

Talked with my Mom today (she lives in Germany) and they are putting in several  vaccinations  location for COVID-19 vaccinations in her town. Vaccination to start in mid December. The vaccinations centers will work in 2 shifts.

To roll out mass vaccinations as quickly as possible. Health care workers and first responders come first.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germany-may-start-vaccinating-in-december/a-55696560

 

I wish I had a better feeling about rollout plans in the US. This should be front center and focus, imo.

 

@Eric - thank you for sharing your episode and glad you and your family are OK. Do you have any idea how your stepson get infected?

Posted

@Eric - thank you for sharing your episode and glad you and your family are OK. Do you have any idea how your stepson get infected?

 

First, a bulk thank-you for the well-wishers.  We continue to not get any worse.

 

All of my stepson's friends appear to be well and their families too.  So maybe I got it at Costco where I wore a mask and spoke to nobody except from behind a window at checkout.  Maybe my wife caught it ordering at the counter the one time in a restaurant in El Dorado Hills that prior weekend.

 

But my stepson says he was showing symptoms all week, but then again my wife says he's a hypochondriac.  I really don't care.

 

Anyhow, we should have immunities for a while and we've booked ourselves six days on Oahu in late December -- we'll need to be tested again (ouch!) before the flight per travel restrictions.

 

 

 

Posted

@Eric - thank you for sharing your episode and glad you and your family are OK. Do you have any idea how your stepson get infected?

 

First, a bulk thank-you for the well-wishers.  We continue to not get any worse.

 

All of my stepson's friends appear to be well and their families too.  So maybe I got it at Costco where I wore a mask and spoke to nobody except from behind a window at checkout.  Maybe my wife caught it ordering at the counter the one time in a restaurant in El Dorado Hills that prior weekend.

 

But my stepson says he was showing symptoms all week, but then again my wife says he's a hypochondriac.  I really don't care.

 

Anyhow, we should have immunities for a while and we've booked ourselves six days on Oahu in late December -- we'll need to be tested again (ouch!) before the flight per travel restrictions.

 

I seldom know how I get colds...it just happens I guess. There are times when I get sick despite not knowing anyone around me who is and other times when I don't get sick when the people I live with are.

 

Anyway, hope you enjoy your trip!

Posted

Thanks! 

 

 

Looks like personal responsibility is a really great theory:

US air travel sets a pandemic-era record despite calls to stay home for Thanksgiving

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/covid-air-travel-thanksgiving-trnd/index.html

 

Not to mention several politicians who got caught breaking their own rules to have Thanksgiving gatherings. I don't blame the public for becoming increasingly jaded by political leadership.

Posted

Thanks! 

 

 

Looks like personal responsibility is a really great theory:

US air travel sets a pandemic-era record despite calls to stay home for Thanksgiving

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/covid-air-travel-thanksgiving-trnd/index.html

 

Not to mention several politicians who got caught breaking their own rules to have Thanksgiving gatherings. I don't blame the public for becoming increasingly jaded by political leadership.

 

People seem to relish in the discovered hypocrisy so that they can feel righteous in their own opposition, although that's pretty childish.  But from what I can tell people don't get too bothered when they feel the rules are just and in place to serve the greater good. 

 

I watch Fox News (not exclusively of course) and they're obsessed with Gavin Newsom's lunch, but the liberals channels don't really care at all to the same extent.

 

Posted

Thanks! 

 

 

Looks like personal responsibility is a really great theory:

US air travel sets a pandemic-era record despite calls to stay home for Thanksgiving

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/covid-air-travel-thanksgiving-trnd/index.html

 

Not to mention several politicians who got caught breaking their own rules to have Thanksgiving gatherings. I don't blame the public for becoming increasingly jaded by political leadership.

 

People seem to relish in the discovered hypocrisy so that they can feel righteous in their own opposition, although that's pretty childish.  But from what I can tell people don't get too bothered when they feel the rules are just and in place to serve the greater good. 

 

I watch Fox News (not exclusively of course) and they're obsessed with Gavin Newsom's lunch, but the liberals channels don't really care at all to the same extent.

 

Eric hope you and your family have a quick and complete recovery.

 

 

Posted

Senate hearing testimony by Dr. George Fareed, a Harvard MD with honors and more profile given below:

 

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony-Fareed-2020-11-19.pdf

 

Since early March both in my Brawley clinic and Dr. Brian Tyson’s The All Valley Urgent Care Clinic in El Centro (where I also work), over 25,000 fearful people were screened, over two thousand four hundred were COVID-19 positive and we treated successfully many hundreds of the high risk and symptomatic ones.

 

 

And this doctor has excellent credentials:

http://www.ivcommunityfoundation.org/media/managed/npd2019/NPD_2019_Program.pdf

PHILANTHROPIST OF THE YEAR Dr. George Fareed

 

Dr.  George  Fareed  graduated  with  honors  from  Harvard  Medical  School  in 1970  and  has  been  practicing  medicine  for  49  years.  He  spent  the  first  20 years after graduation researching and teaching at Harvard and UCLA. He was Assistant  Professor at  HMS  from  1973-1976.  He  was  Associate  Professor  at UCLA  from  1976-1996.  He  received  the  Soma  Weiss  Award  for  his  DNA                research.  He  founded  International  Genetic  Engineering,  Inc. in 1980 and Advanced Antigens, Inc. in 1991, the same year he opened his medical practice in  Brawley,  CA.  And,  he  was  the  US  Davis  Cup  tennis  team  physician  for  20 years and worked at 38 team matches and the US Olympics in Sydney in 2000.  In  the  memorable  1995  Davis  Cup  final  against  Russia  in  Moscow,  he  helped Pete Sampras bounce back from grueling leg cramps. He has been recognized for his many accomplishments including the 2004..........

........

 

You can read his full profile in the link...but my point is:

 

Whenever I went to doctor for my family one question I always had was how many they treated and what was the result and the doctors credentials.  If a doctor tells me they treated hundreds of patients and all of them are doing well, that usually works for me to take that treatment.

 

Why should not be taken seriously for Covid and ignore these doctors?

 

Posted

I checked my result from Monday's testing:  again, 'negative'.  I give up.  What do I need next, an antibody test?

 

How accurate is the diagnostic test for COVID-19?

The PCR test for COVID-19 works by detecting genetic material from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The genetic material from SARS-CoV-2 cannot be confused with the genetic material from other viruses, so the COVID-19 diagnostic test is highly specific. This means it almost never gives a false positive. If you are tested for COVID-19, and the test comes back positive, you can be very sure that you are infected with this virus. The new antigen test for COVID-19 is also very specific and rarely gives a false positive.

 

 

Unfortunately, neither test is equally sensitive. If the specimen collection is not done perfectly, or if you are in an early stage of infection or already partially recovered, your nasal-swab sample might not contain enough viral material to come back positive. There are many stories about patients who tested negative soon after their symptoms began, only to test positive on a test done later. It is clear that the PCR test is more accurate at detecting early-stage infections, and there are early indications that the antigen test may be better at identifying patients who are already recovering.

https://medical.mit.edu/faqs/faq-testing-covid-19

 

 

Posted

I checked my result from Monday's testing:  again, 'negative'.  I give up.  What do I need next, an antibody test?

Given the description of the symptoms and 'epidemiological' circumstances, the two negative results are not enough to completely rule out CV.

So, the idea is to behave as if the virus disease is present. Behaviors (altered or not) depend on various beliefs but information coming out of imperfect collective organizations whose recommendations are based at least on some level of trust and peer-reviewed processes suggests that at least self-quarantine versus others that are presumed to not have the disease is the minimal way to go. Further testing may not be helpful unless there is a specific reason. The above assumes a gradual process to recovery.

 

If there is a specific reason to know or simply want to know, the way to go is to obtain another test in another testing area in order to control for collection technique, different lab, different test (antigen vs PCR) with a slightly different sensitivity/specificity (false negative, false positive) profile in general and evolving according to stage of clinical presentation. Another possibility is to wait for at least 2 to 3 weeks and get an antibody test.

Posted

Senate hearing testimony by Dr. George Fareed, a Harvard MD with honors and more profile given below:

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony-Fareed-2020-11-19.pdf

Since early March both in my Brawley clinic and Dr. Brian Tyson’s The All Valley Urgent Care Clinic in El Centro (where I also work), over 25,000 fearful people were screened, over two thousand four hundred were COVID-19 positive and we treated successfully many hundreds of the high risk and symptomatic ones.

And this doctor has excellent credentials:

http://www.ivcommunityfoundation.org/media/managed/npd2019/NPD_2019_Program.pdf

PHILANTHROPIST OF THE YEAR Dr. George Fareed

Dr.  George  Fareed  graduated  with  honors  from  Harvard  Medical  School  in 1970  and  has  been  practicing  medicine  for  49  years.  He  spent  the  first  20 years after graduation researching and teaching at Harvard and UCLA. He was Assistant  Professor at  HMS  from  1973-1976.  He  was  Associate  Professor  at UCLA  from  1976-1996.  He  received  the  Soma  Weiss  Award  for  his  DNA                research.  He  founded  International  Genetic  Engineering,  Inc. in 1980 and Advanced Antigens, Inc. in 1991, the same year he opened his medical practice in  Brawley,  CA.  And,  he  was  the  US  Davis  Cup  tennis  team  physician  for  20 years and worked at 38 team matches and the US Olympics in Sydney in 2000.  In  the  memorable  1995  Davis  Cup  final  against  Russia  in  Moscow,  he  helped Pete Sampras bounce back from grueling leg cramps. He has been recognized for his many accomplishments including the 2004..........

........

You can read his full profile in the link...but my point is:

Whenever I went to doctor for my family one question I always had was how many they treated and what was the result and the doctors credentials.  If a doctor tells me they treated hundreds of patients and all of them are doing well, that usually works for me to take that treatment.

Why should not be taken seriously for Covid and ignore these doctors?

Short answer: The person may be right.

Longer answer: This opinion shows the challenge when there are 'competing' schools of thought. When this issue becomes driven by 'us vs them', constructive discussions become difficult and often deviate from basic data, reasoning, weight of evidence etc. The opinion also shows the challenge related to balancing personal and collective responsibility.

 

For various reasons, i've been involved in self-regulatory ventures which included to limit or terminate certain activities or even careers. A basic principle involved to respect alternative ways to think but the burden of proof should lie on the person voicing unusual or contrary opinions. So far, the evidence for the use of hydroxychloroquine at any stage of CV remains unconvincing and a lot of what the emerging school of thought is doing is to focus on the container, not the content. When assessing specific cases, the following type of comment sometimes appeared: [the] "doctor tells me they treated hundreds of patients and all of them are doing well". This was typically a massive red flag.

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