Coronavirus

[Dalal.Holdings]

This one is called “so much winning” !

 

[Cigarbutt]

Part I

^^High percent positive tests, holding everything else constant, are closely related to the number of deaths projected to happen in the short term. High and rising is a poor indicator if population survival is the aim. Along the same line of reasoning, low and decreasing is the ideal combination. For reference only, current reporting (7-day average) shows a steady low 0.8% in Canada. There appears to be growing test fatigue and the US percent positive rate is still high but declining so there's that.

if interested, the following gives a consensus and balanced view on the meaning of the percent positive test results:

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-understanding-the-percent-positive.html

 

For those who are curious to figure out why the rising testing has not been 1:1 correlated to rising mortality, the following image is instructive. It's from the CDC and shows the commercial testing results. The public health testing is much less significant in numbers but the overall trend is the same. The number of tests in the 18-49 group has gone up significantly which has relatively low impact on the aggregate population outcome (in my province, a 19-year old just died so one has to be careful with population numbers) but there is an unfortunate associated rising percent positive test in that cohort that is closely associated to rising percent positive results in other cohorts, ages 50-64 and 65+ (and therefore higher number of absolute cases with more tests based on simple arithmetic, so given the age-specific CFRs, one can figure out the price to pay resulting from the policies or absence thereof). The CDC also disaggregates the numbers according to race and socio-economic status but it seems this post has enough data as it is. Hint: Well-to-do folks working from home tend to do better.

----------

Part II

In seemingly unrelated news, there's been an unusual interest in convalescent plasma lately but the usual process again is being disrupted for the wrong reasons. Isn't this supposed to be about sequential learning?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02324-2

Trying to connect some dots between part I and part II, i wonder if this explains that.

[clutch]

Now compare USA to other countries and look at normalized deaths...

 

Congrats on living in such a shithole country. I'd leave and seek refuge immediately.  ::)

[Dalal.Holdings]

Now compare USA to other countries and look at normalized deaths...

 

Congrats on living in such a shithole country. I'd leave and seek refuge immediately.  ::)

 

My country is great. We are just being run by someone who is the opposite and we have results that match that fact. More people voted for his opponent than him too. Don’t worry, this situation will be rectified shortly.

[samwise]

Anyone making the decision about sending kids to school?

 

Currently I understand that kids (ages 5-10) have low risk of getting and passing the disease, low effects if they do get it. Plus the virus is pretty controlled in my area (Toronto), so their risk of interaction with another infected kid or teacher is about as low as it will ever be until after a vaccine.

 

On the flipside, I don’t think staying home for another year (when kids might get vaccines) is good for them either, academically, mentally, socially.

 

Appreciate any thoughts.

[Cigarbutt]

Coronavirus-related news are moving away from headlines, a trend that will likely accentuate overall, despite occasional bumps and absent significant other waves.

So, underlying secular trends will continue to play out (global trade, interest rate and debt levels, inequality, institutional erosion etc), integrating what the virus meant for the various hosts and their associated risk factors.

It may be a good time for an interim post-mortem and, for those interested, the following paper is quite long but does a reasonable job covering various interesting topics (parallel with 1918 flu epsiode, how regional mortality variations can be explained, effects on fertility, in utero scarring phenomenon suspected after the Spanish flu waves, economic impact, legacy etc).

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27673.pdf

i would say the utero scarring phenomenon is unlikely to happen from Covid-19 (at least the physical scar) because of various central interventions but the type of institutions that the US still has in place showed that the net effect on functional and effective public policy was mixed. So far, The U.S. has conducted more than 73 million tests (which attests of the great productivity potential) and about 6 million of them have come back positive (which suggests that quality may be more important than quantity sometimes).

A summary of the paper can be found in the following graph that is based on the paper with additional data:

The graph shows how relatively irrelevant the Covid peak will look like at some point and there is an unusually high overall correlation with the evolution of interest rates. In The Trouble Wtih Prosperity, Mr. James Grant quotes the 19th century economist, Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk who "pronounced that a lower the country's interest rates, the higher its intelligence and the sounder its character." As we're getting back to an ever changing new normal and as we will eventually re-learn how to fail, i submit that the great Austrian economist forgot that a good idea could be taken too far.

 

Anyone making the decision about sending kids to school?

Currently I understand that kids (ages 5-10) have low risk of getting and passing the disease, low effects if they do get it. Plus the virus is pretty controlled in my area (Toronto), so their risk of interaction with another infected kid or teacher is about as low as it will ever be until after a vaccine.

On the flipside, I don’t think staying home for another year (when kids might get vaccines) is good for them either, academically, mentally, socially.

Appreciate any thoughts.

Some key variables include the presence of risk factors in family members and level of active community spread during opening. All my kids are going back to school but they are relatively older. There is a CDC study that was mentioned above in this thread concerning the risk to younger children. In my area, just like in many other jurisdictions, elementary schools re-opened for a few weeks at the end of the last academic year in most non-urban regions where the community spread was low. There were pockets of resurgence but it was manageable. i happen to think that the cost of school closures, at the population level, is colossal, to use a qualifier mentioned in a title made by The Economist (July 18th edition), a one-page article that is interesting and relevant.

[LC]

No comment on the interest rate link as I suspect it may be spurious or at the very least an indirectly correlated indicator. (OK, a small comment :D )

 

That said, it does seem the US has passed the crest of its "2nd wave". Good news for sure.

 

In Europe, it appears Spain and perhaps Belgium are the only two countries where you could argue a "2nd wave" is occurring. In Spain it is more prominent, they are seeing about a 3.5-4% mortality rate in the recent reporting period, above the average.

 

Per: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid (Financial Times infographic)

 

It appears the US is the only country in the world with a significant "2nd wave", peaking around 17% above the average in late July/early Aug.

 

 

[Liberty]

[LC]

CDC has new guidelines on COVID testing.

 

Essentially suggesting that those who have been in close contact with COVID-positive individual, but do not present symptoms themselves, do not need to be tested.

 

Dr. Fauci said he was in surgery and was not part of this discussion!  :-X

 

 

 

 

[samwise]

 

Some key variables include the presence of risk factors in family members and level of active community spread during opening. All my kids are going back to school but they are relatively older. There is a CDC study that was mentioned above in this thread concerning the risk to younger children. In my area, just like in many other jurisdictions, elementary schools re-opened for a few weeks at the end of the last academic year in most non-urban regions where the community spread was low. There were pockets of resurgence but it was manageable. i happen to think that the cost of school closures, at the population level, is colossal, to use a qualifier mentioned in a title made by The Economist (July 18th edition), a one-page article that is interesting and relevant.

 

Thanks! I’ll try to lookup the economist article.

 

 

[muscleman]

Now revisiting this at the end of August, the daily new cases are way down. As I said in late July here, I think herd immunity is there in certain states such as NY, NJ, GA, TX, FL. Especially GA which reopened school and no one seems to be wearing masks in school and the trend is still down.

 

But governors of NY and NJ will probably keep the lock down through election so they can justify mail in ballots without id verifications. We all know what this is all about. ::)

 

@Dalal Holdings I sold most of my stocks this week and holding cash right now. I think the COVID cases are dropping faster than I expected so FED support for the market may dwindle quickly. And the asset bubble is brewing faster than I thought. TSLA, AAPL for example. Timing wise, no one knows the exact date of the top.

 

[Spekulatius]

Now revisiting this at the end of August, the daily new cases are way down. As I said in late July here, I think herd immunity is there in certain states such as NY, NJ, GA, TX, FL. Especially GA which reopened school and no one seems to be wearing masks in school and the trend is still down.

 

But governors of NY and NJ will probably keep the lock down through election so they can justify mail in ballots without id verifications. We all know what this is all about. ::)

 

@Dalal Holdings I sold most of my stocks this week and holding cash right now. I think the COVID cases are dropping faster than I expected so FED support for the market may dwindle quickly. And the asset bubble is brewing faster than I thought. TSLA, AAPL for example. Timing wise, no one knows the exact date of the top.

 

Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it:

I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

 

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians.

 

I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested.

 

But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail...

 

Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that?

 

Moving goal posts? We had 49,600 positive cases yesterday and 1105 death. By mid September, we are on track to be worse than Italy in terms of normalized death rate (death/ 1M population).

 

49,600 is much more than 20,000 objectively.

[muscleman]

Now revisiting this at the end of August, the daily new cases are way down. As I said in late July here, I think herd immunity is there in certain states such as NY, NJ, GA, TX, FL. Especially GA which reopened school and no one seems to be wearing masks in school and the trend is still down.

 

But governors of NY and NJ will probably keep the lock down through election so they can justify mail in ballots without id verifications. We all know what this is all about. ::)

 

@Dalal Holdings I sold most of my stocks this week and holding cash right now. I think the COVID cases are dropping faster than I expected so FED support for the market may dwindle quickly. And the asset bubble is brewing faster than I thought. TSLA, AAPL for example. Timing wise, no one knows the exact date of the top.

 

Maybe I did not say it clearly, but I never said COVID is over in 30 days. Let me clarify it:

I think COVID situation will be dramatically improved by the end of August, but there will be a long tail for daily new cases here and there for 6 months if not more before COVID is gone.

 

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians.

 

I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested.

 

But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail...

 

Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that?

 

Moving goal posts? We had 49,600 positive cases yesterday and 1105 death. By mid September, we are on track to be worse than Italy in terms of normalized death rate (death/ 1M population).

 

49,600 is much more than 20,000 objectively.

 

Just look at this graph and tell me why it is not a significant improvement from the end of July.

Yes. I missed the 20k mark. And I apologize for the wrong prediction on that. But the overall down trend is pretty solid.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Moving goal posts? We had 49,600 positive cases yesterday and 1105 death. By mid September, we are on track to be worse than Italy in terms of normalized death rate (death/ 1M population).

 

49,600 is much more than 20,000 objectively.

 

This from the guy who said this less than a mo ago:

 

I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;)

This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen.

 

We've gone from the US having herd immunity to a select few states (supposedly)...it's ok, the only downside when you throw out precaution and make bold claims with an asymmetric situation like this is that more people will die...

 

Honestly between this thread, endless Trump defense/false equivalence in the politics section, the Martingale gambling claims (and Pabrai's questionable claims to add to that), moving the goalposts by TSLAQ'ers, folks convinced that SpaceX is nothing impressive, SHLD/FNMA/VRX, etc etc, nothing on this forum surprises me anymore.

 

On a general scale, I am happy such thinking exists among my fellow investors. It sucks in a democracy when such thinking exists among fellow citizens/leaders (especially when you have a virus that kills).

 

On a personal scale, I hope you don't often become so confident in your abilities to predict the future, Muscleman and learn from your mistakes...but the first part of that is acknowledging you made a mistake in the first place.

[Cigarbutt]

Now revisiting this at the end of August, the daily new cases are way down. As I said in late July here, I think herd immunity is there in certain states such as NY, NJ, GA, TX, FL. Especially GA which reopened school and no one seems to be wearing masks in school and the trend is still down.

If herd immunity is there in Georgia,

-Why is the percent positive rate at 12.7% as of yesterday?

-Why do the current hospitalizations and new death rates (even if directionally favorable) suggest that there is more fresh human flesh to burn?

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia

 

If Georgia and others are ideologically on the 'right' side,

-What explains the patterns of mobility reports?

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-08-25_US_Georgia_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

[Read the Footnotes]

 

If herd immunity is there in Georgia,

-Why is the percent positive rate at 12.7% as of yesterday?

An even more basic question, how can anyone believe cases are actually declining in GA when the positivity rate is 12.7%?

[Cigarbutt]

If herd immunity is there in Georgia,

-Why is the percent positive rate at 12.7% as of yesterday?

An even more basic question, how can anyone believe cases are actually declining in GA when the positivity rate is 12.7%?

One of the key fundamental ratio to use for the pandemic has been the percent positive ratio. However, it does not fit with the narrative that more "cases' happened as result of more tests being done and less "cases" happened as a result of less tests being done.

i try to stick to fundamentals and admit that it's difficult to predict based on technicals but it seems that technical considerations can lead to deviation from fundamentals.

[Cigarbutt]

The following is interesting in terms of potential lessons that could be learned. It's about the Japanese experience in nursing homes.

Many factors in play: the institutional host ready before (nursing home infrastructure, general cultural traits etc), better risk-factor profile despite older demography, others

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/japan-has-the-world-s-oldest-population-yet-it-dodged-a-coronavirus-crisis-at-elder-care-facilities/ar-BB18wdif?ocid=msedgntp

Interestingly, given the strength of the institutional host and tradition, it appears that the relatively low use of masks, in that specific context, did not result in spread of the virus to the elderly. The author seems to suggest that doing the right thing in the first place may contribute to a better outcome and i wonder if those in charge of macro-prudential policies have to something to learn here.

[Gregmal]

Good grief. So muscleman is accurate directionally, and has made money predicting the virus decline and market rise....but because he didnt "nail the number" so to speak on the exact decline...he is a worthy candy to give grief.....

 

 

Meanwhile, on the other side, we've had:

 

-go to cash!

-people buying stonks are stoopid!

-US will be worse than Italy(while referring to Lombardy as "Italy")

-covid was supposedly not here in January/February

-FL, GA, TX, AZ will have worse death rates than NY

-FL, GA, TX, AZ hospitals will be over capacity any day now

-Just wait 2 more weeks for death rates to exceed NY!(for 2+ months)

-Celebration of "OMG TX JUST CROSSED 2% FATALITY RATE. I WAS RIGHT!"

-Now "US is worse than Italy!" while deliberately referring to Italy as a whole country instead of just Lombardy as was the case prior

 

Interesting indeed...to each their own I guess.

 

My only question to muscleman would be:

 

You expected the case figures to decline more, which is still likely on the table. The market has risen, indeed. But you referenced several times, an "Asset bubble" forming. I have a hard time declaring whats occurred during the timeframe of your trade(maybe 4-6 weeks?) as an asset bubble running its course. So, what changed? Is it just the expectation of the Fed? Or is there more to it? Personally I think between where case numbers could be by Election Day, stimulus talks still not concluded, and a possible greater reopening in certain areas, there would be ample catalysts to keep blowing hot air into the bubble.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Good grief. So muscleman is accurate directionally, and has made money predicting the virus decline and market rise....but because he didnt "nail the number" so to speak on the exact decline...he is a worthy candy to give grief.....

 

 

Meanwhile, on the other side, we've had:

 

-go to cash!

-people buying stonks are stoopid!

-US will be worse than Italy(while referring to Lombardy as "Italy")

-covid was supposedly not here in January/February

-FL, GA, TX, AZ will have worse death rates than NY

-FL, GA, TX, AZ hospitals will be over capacity any day now

-Just wait 2 more weeks for death rates to exceed NY!(for 2+ months)

-Celebration of "OMG TX JUST CROSSED 2% FATALITY RATE. I WAS RIGHT!"

-Now "US is worse than Italy!" while deliberately referring to Italy as a whole country instead of just Lombardy as was the case prior

 

Interesting indeed...to each their own I guess.

 

My only question to muscleman would be:

 

You expected the case figures to decline more, which is still likely on the table. The market has risen, indeed. But you referenced several times, an "Asset bubble" forming. I have a hard time declaring whats occurred during the timeframe of your trade(maybe 4-6 weeks?) as an asset bubble running its course. So, what changed? Is it just the expectation of the Fed? Or is there more to it? Personally I think between where case numbers could be by Election Day, stimulus talks still not concluded, and a possible greater reopening in certain areas, there would be ample catalysts to keep blowing hot air into the bubble.

 

Doubling down on broken analyses and mischaracterizing the opposing people's positions to make yourself feel better about repeatedly being wrong. A surefire recipe for a lifetime of investment success! Nothing in this forum surprises me anymore!

 

"Often wrong, never in doubt!"

[Gregmal]

Good grief. So muscleman is accurate directionally, and has made money predicting the virus decline and market rise....but because he didnt "nail the number" so to speak on the exact decline...he is a worthy candy to give grief.....

 

 

Meanwhile, on the other side, we've had:

 

-go to cash!

-people buying stonks are stoopid!

-US will be worse than Italy(while referring to Lombardy as "Italy")

-covid was supposedly not here in January/February

-FL, GA, TX, AZ will have worse death rates than NY

-FL, GA, TX, AZ hospitals will be over capacity any day now

-Just wait 2 more weeks for death rates to exceed NY!(for 2+ months)

-Celebration of "OMG TX JUST CROSSED 2% FATALITY RATE. I WAS RIGHT!"

-Now "US is worse than Italy!" while deliberately referring to Italy as a whole country instead of just Lombardy as was the case prior

 

Interesting indeed...to each their own I guess.

 

My only question to muscleman would be:

 

You expected the case figures to decline more, which is still likely on the table. The market has risen, indeed. But you referenced several times, an "Asset bubble" forming. I have a hard time declaring whats occurred during the timeframe of your trade(maybe 4-6 weeks?) as an asset bubble running its course. So, what changed? Is it just the expectation of the Fed? Or is there more to it? Personally I think between where case numbers could be by Election Day, stimulus talks still not concluded, and a possible greater reopening in certain areas, there would be ample catalysts to keep blowing hot air into the bubble.

 

Doubling down on broken analyses and mischaracterizing the opposing people's positions to make yourself feel better about repeatedly being wrong. A surefire recipe for a lifetime of investment success! Nothing in this forum surprises me anymore!

 

"Often wrong, never in doubt!"

 

I hope you and your kind are invested in the markets!

 

-Dalal, April 2020

 

 

LOL Endless wisdom from the "analytical" one.

 

Make a claim:

 

If right...well, sound the alarm

 

If wrong...delete/modify/edit posts, twist narrative, claim you said something else that can still tangentially be argued as having merit.

 

 

Go get em champ.

 

Oh yea, another one!

 

Dalal in March: mock the politics section

Dalal now: living there "rent free"

 

After all, "the stakes are high!" ROFLMAO

[Casey]

It’s summer. From what I’ve read it’s like 10-20x more likely that you get the virus indoors versus outdoors How much do we think the numbers are the season vs getting to “herd immunity” ? I’m inclined to think mostly the former. The south is ultra hot and people are inside at restaurants and bars and parties. Dumb, but they are. So cases will continue.

 

Personally what I’ve been expecting is a lull in cases in summer and then a rebound as we open schools, people spend time more indoors because of the cold in October and later. OTOH there’s a lot of vaccine candidates on horizon and will only be more as time moves on, and you have govt + fed backstop in trillions as necessary.

 

Hard to have too much of a opinionated view, so unless you think you’re some kind of market timing genius just stay long good businesses.

[Dalal.Holdings]

LOL. Love hearing from our modern Nostradamus--can't really predict the future, and rewrites the past to make it seem he was right all along.

 

Can't trust our Nostradamus for a reliable report of the past nor the future, now that's special!

 

Good thing we have folks like this in charge of our pandemic response in the USA--and with the results to show for it too!

[Dalal.Holdings]

So much for that "herd immunity in NY" thesis:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-30/berlin-protest-turns-violent-u-s-cases-pick-up-virus-update

 

New York Outbreaks Hit Buffalo, SUNY (12:30 p.m. NY)

Western New York state is seeing an outbreak of Covid-19 cases. Buffalo, a city of about 250,000 on the Canadian border, reported an infection rate of 5.5% yesterday, compared with the statewide rate of 0.69%, Governor Andrew Cuomo said on a call with reporters on Sunday.

 

The State University of New York’s Oneonta campus is suspending in-person instruction for two weeks after several large parties led to an outbreak. As of Sunday morning, 105 people are confirmed positive, representing about 3% of student and faculty on the campus, SUNY Chancellor Jim Malatras said.

 

Let me guess, when they said "herd immunity in NY", they just meant NYC...

 

This is what happens when you get overconfident in a widely uncertain situation with large downside...now there's a risk this just continues on and on in the USA.

[Gregmal]

Shit, and here I thought, by NY, they meant Roscoe, NY....what a tool.

 

Couple hundred college students get COVID, markets downs 8,000 points. Go to cash. Short everything. This is what happens with wide uncertainty! Large downside! Did I mention, we're going to get more covid cases! Cuomo, what do we do with the nursing home folks this time? Ahhhh!