Coronavirus

[Liberty]

Is it really that? Or is it this much simpler and stupider game of "whatever position you(democrat) take I(republican) have to take the other side"? A game that only seems profitable in politics.

 

I'm sure it's more than one thing, and just reflexively taking the contrary position that your opponent is taking is also very common. But usually when it comes to being this wrong and killing your citizens and destroying your economy this many months into a crisis, you need to be seriously dumb and mentally inflexible, IMO.

 

Politics is the mind-killer:

 

Politics is an extension of war by other means. Arguments are soldiers. Once you know which side you’re on, you must support all arguments of that side, and attack all arguments that appear to favor the enemy side; otherwise it’s like stabbing your soldiers in the back—providing aid and comfort to the enemy.

 

All this epidemic stuff should be such a non-partisan issue. I'd be fine if Romney was in charge or if Obama was in charge, they'd do such a better job, and would save the US tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of lives by the time this is over, and how many millions of jobs and trillions of dollars (both of lost productivity and of government debt)... This is such a big hole that is being dug, it's going to take years to dig out of it and get back to the spot on the trendline that the US would be if they had just copied everything almost every other country did that has a curve that is almost back to baseline...

[Dalal.Holdings]

All this epidemic stuff should be such a non-partisan issue. I'd be fine if Romney was in charge or if Obama was in charge, they'd do such a better job, and would save the US tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of lives by the time this is over, and how many millions of jobs and trillions of dollars (both of lost productivity and of government debt)... This is such a big hole that is being dug, it's going to take years to dig out of it and get back to the spot on the trendline that the US would be if they had just copied everything almost every other country did that has a curve that is almost back to baseline...

 

The major takeaway from recent events:

 

Our world (including this forum) provides many opportunities to learn from the staggering mistakes of others in their ways of thinking and acting. Seize the opportunities. And let them continue to pound it in.

[Liberty]

 

Kayleigh McEnany: "The President has said unmistakably that he wants schools to open... The science should not stand in the way of this."

 

Meanwhile, the guy the should actually have had running things without constant second guessing and contradicting from the beginning seems like a really good guy:

 

[Investor20]

 

Kayleigh McEnany: "The President has said unmistakably that he wants schools to open... The science should not stand in the way of this."

 

Meanwhile, the guy the should actually have had running things without constant second guessing and contradicting from the beginning seems like a really good guy:

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/07/13/world/europe/13reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-schools.html

German Study Shows Low Coronavirus Infection Rate in Schools

 

"Children may even act as a brake on infection," Berner told a news conference, saying infections in schools had not led to an outbreak, while the spread of the virus within households was also less dynamic than previously thought.

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/icelandic-study-we-have-not-found-a-single-instance-of-a-child-infecting-parents/

Icelandic Study: ‘We Have Not Found a Single Instance of a Child Infecting Parents.’

 

.........................

For many children in the world, schools provide meals, vaccination, a safe place (some homes with drug addicts are not safe), early intervention such as speech therapy.  One should balance these against the available eviddence of children getting sick and how much they transmit it to adults.  Above are two data points.

[Liberty]

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/07/13/world/europe/13reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-schools.html

German Study Shows Low Coronavirus Infection Rate in Schools

 

"Children may even act as a brake on infection," Berner told a news conference, saying infections in schools had not led to an outbreak, while the spread of the virus within households was also less dynamic than previously thought.

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/icelandic-study-we-have-not-found-a-single-instance-of-a-child-infecting-parents/

Icelandic Study: ‘We Have Not Found a Single Instance of a Child Infecting Parents.’

 

.........................

For many children in the world, schools provide meals, vaccination, a safe place (some homes with drug addicts are not safe), early intervention such as speech therapy.  One should balance these against the available eviddence of children getting sick and how much they transmit it to adults.  Above are two data points.

 

Do these countries have an out-of-control outbreak with almost 80k new positive tests a day (at very high positive percentage of tests, meaning there's a lot that are going untested)?

 

You don't get to have other countries' outcomes without doing what they did to get these outcomes. Lots of adults work in schools, and even for kids, "low risk" doesn't mean "no risk" for them, or "no risk" to pass it on to their families... The preliminary data seen in some places could still be reversed as more time passes and more evidence is gathered, and just yesterday Fauci was warning young people that they're spreading the virus. Not only that, but the goal here is to get kids in schools to get more parents out in the world, and I'm not sure that's the best thing to do when you're breaking infection records daily and there's no plan to deal with the crisis and the feds are MIA.

 

What's a risk worth taking when the virus is very rare in a population, such as in Germany with 300-500 cases/day and a fairly stable curve and measures in place to contain it, isn't worth taking in a country with 70,000-80,000 cases/day and a fast-growing curve, with governors suing cities to keep them from using masks and such.

 

If Trump cared about kids and their educations, he'd have done a good job controlling the virus like everybody else. Now what happened is they told him that the only thing he polled remotely ok on is the economy, and that the economy can't reopen if kids aren't in school. He's not doing it because it's better for kids or the pandemic. And he certainly didn't help the economy by bungling the pandemic response...

 

Seems super-duper-obvious, but I guess it needs to be said..

[Liberty]

https://english.elpais.com/science_tech/2020-07-17/over-half-of-coronavirus-hospital-patients-in-spain-have-developed-neurological-problems-studies-show.html

 

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus attacks the respiratory system, but there is growing evidence that it also affects the nervous system. Several studies based on thousands of Spanish patients show that most of these individuals developed at least one neurological problem. This manifested itself in a wide range of symptoms, ranging from headaches to comatose states. In a percentage of cases, neurological conditions were even the principal cause of death. Although these symptoms have been attributed to the body’s excessive immune response to Covid-19, some research indicates that the virus is directly attacking the brain.

[Gregmal]

Strictly from a market perspective, its amusing seeing the media ramp up the aggressiveness of the COVID will end the US narrative, knowing its their last chance to possibly get Trump out of office. Meanwhile, we're getting "I told you so's" and "I was right and everyone else was wrong" from people who advocated going to cash and shorting in March, and all the while the potency of the virus decays towards a very flu like number, and the market grinds higher basically saying "fool me once...."

 

I guess all thats left for some is to say "bubble" and still conclude the virus will end the US.... good luck with that.

[rb]

Because the market is never wrong right?

[Gregmal]

Because the market is never wrong right?

 

It's often wrong on a very short term basis, just like it was in March. Anyone who can not see that this is hardly an "extinction level" event, shouldn't be in the markets to begin with. As much as some of you want it to be, it isn't.

 

What I will say though, is instead of ambiguous one liners or open ended counter points, make a prediction? If its all doom and gloom as some say, then say something! Dont just sit there and insinuate end of world scenarios, going to cash, shorting everything under then sun, and then flip the script, edit your posts, and then go away until you can back pedal your way into another "see I was right" scenario.

 

I've clearly communicated my concerns about the market and what could really drag this down(IE government intervention). Ive also said I believe and am wagering we have a vaccine much soon then most expected(IE 18 months from March), and possible even before year end. I've also clearly expressed some of how Im playing it. So, open book here..others not so much. Just continued rambling about "OMG NEW CASE RECORD!" "US SHATTERS RECORD"....when I think its clear at this point, the total number of cases doesnt matter any more than it does for the flu, and the market started recognizing this a little while ago.

 

Orrrrrr.....some can continue to take the path of "I, Joe Schmoe from so and so, am right about the markets, and hundreds, thousands, millions of other participants that make the market, are wrong".....to each their own.

[Liberty]

Strictly from a market perspective, its amusing seeing the media ramp up the aggressiveness of the COVID will end the US narrative, knowing its their last chance to possibly get Trump out of office. Meanwhile, we're getting "I told you so's" and "I was right and everyone else was wrong" from people who advocated going to cash and shorting in March, and all the while the potency of the virus decays towards a very flu like number, and the market grinds higher basically saying "fool me once...."

 

I guess all thats left for some is to say "bubble" and still conclude the virus will end the US.... good luck with that.

 

I think you're misreading the situation.

 

I think Trump's problems are self-inflicted. If he was a little smart and a little competent and had a little empathy, and was surrounded by people like that too, he'd have done what almost every single country has done and this crisis would've boosted his popularity and been a clear re-election calling card, as most successfully met challenges are for presidents (9/11 for Bush, for example). I protected you, this really bad thing happened and I dealt with it well, you can trust me to have your back for 4 more years, etc.

 

Instead, it revealed him without a shadow of a doubt to be an incompetent bullshit artist who has no idea how to do the actual job, and polls reflect that.

 

As for the market, it's always going to do what it's going to do. People think it should work in lockstep with the underlying economy, but if you look at the facts, it rarely does, too many factors and reflexive feedback mechanisms. If it did, it would be a lot easier to predict, because the economy moves a lot slower than the market..

[Gregmal]

Strictly from a market perspective, its amusing seeing the media ramp up the aggressiveness of the COVID will end the US narrative, knowing its their last chance to possibly get Trump out of office. Meanwhile, we're getting "I told you so's" and "I was right and everyone else was wrong" from people who advocated going to cash and shorting in March, and all the while the potency of the virus decays towards a very flu like number, and the market grinds higher basically saying "fool me once...."

 

I guess all thats left for some is to say "bubble" and still conclude the virus will end the US.... good luck with that.

 

I think you're misreading the situation.

 

I think Trump's problems are self-inflicted. If he was a little smart and a little competent and had a little empathy, and was surrounded by people like that too, he'd have done what almost every single country has done and this crisis would've boosted his popularity and been a clear re-election calling card, as most successfully met challenges are for presidents (9/11 for Bush, for example). I protected you, this really bad thing happened and I dealt with it well, you can trust me to have your back for 4 more years, etc.

 

Instead, it revealed him without a shadow of a doubt to be an incompetent bullshit artist who has no idea how to do the actual job, and polls reflect that.

 

As for the market, it's always going to do what it's going to do. People think it should work in lockstep with the underlying economy, but if you look at the facts, it rarely does, too many factors and reflexive feedback mechanisms. If it did, it would be a lot easier to predict, because the economy moves a lot slower than the market..

 

While this is true, contrary to the beloved narrative some here like to peddle, I really could care less about whether Trump handled things in a way that best suited his political ambitions. In fact, theres probably a greater source of truth to the argument that without some degree of mismanagement, we wouldn't have the stimulus and rate policies that are making certain long and short term investments available and extremely compelling, not to mention predictable, right now. Short term, you have capital markets completely open at outrageous rates to companies just recently believed to be on the brink of "extinction"...longer term, you have guaranteed low rates and a put option of a party change which has already committed to an outrageous level of money printing, and yet inflation protected assets in irreplaceable locations trading at historic spreads against treasuries....

[Liberty]

Strictly from a market perspective, its amusing seeing the media ramp up the aggressiveness of the COVID will end the US narrative, knowing its their last chance to possibly get Trump out of office. Meanwhile, we're getting "I told you so's" and "I was right and everyone else was wrong" from people who advocated going to cash and shorting in March, and all the while the potency of the virus decays towards a very flu like number, and the market grinds higher basically saying "fool me once...."

 

I guess all thats left for some is to say "bubble" and still conclude the virus will end the US.... good luck with that.

 

I think you're misreading the situation.

 

I think Trump's problems are self-inflicted. If he was a little smart and a little competent and had a little empathy, and was surrounded by people like that too, he'd have done what almost every single country has done and this crisis would've boosted his popularity and been a clear re-election calling card, as most successfully met challenges are for presidents (9/11 for Bush, for example). I protected you, this really bad thing happened and I dealt with it well, you can trust me to have your back for 4 more years, etc.

 

Instead, it revealed him without a shadow of a doubt to be an incompetent bullshit artist who has no idea how to do the actual job, and polls reflect that.

 

As for the market, it's always going to do what it's going to do. People think it should work in lockstep with the underlying economy, but if you look at the facts, it rarely does, too many factors and reflexive feedback mechanisms. If it did, it would be a lot easier to predict, because the economy moves a lot slower than the market..

 

While this is true, contrary to the beloved narrative some here like to peddle, I really could care less about whether Trump handled things in a way that best suited his political ambitions. In fact, theres probably a greater source of truth to the argument that without some degree of mismanagement, we wouldn't have the stimulus and rate policies that are making certain long and short term investments available and extremely compelling, not to mention predictable, right now. Short term, you have capital markets completely open at outrageous rates to companies just recently believed to be on the brink of "extinction"...longer term, you have guaranteed low rates and a put option of a party change which has already committed to an outrageous level of money printing, and yet inflation protected assets in irreplaceable locations trading at historic spreads against treasuries....

 

Yeah, I was more worried about the unnecessary human suffering and deaths and out-of-control epidemic than the market here...

[Casey]

It's hilarious that there are still people in this thread who after the previous 4-5 months basically think this virus is NBD. Good lord.

[DooDiligence]

Strictly from a market perspective, its amusing seeing the media ramp up the aggressiveness of the COVID will end the US narrative, knowing its their last chance to possibly get Trump out of office. Meanwhile, we're getting "I told you so's" and "I was right and everyone else was wrong" from people who advocated going to cash and shorting in March, and all the while the potency of the virus decays towards a very flu like number, and the market grinds higher basically saying "fool me once...."

 

I guess all thats left for some is to say "bubble" and still conclude the virus will end the US.... good luck with that.

 

I think you're misreading the situation.

 

I think Trump's problems are self-inflicted. If he was a little smart and a little competent and had a little empathy, and was surrounded by people like that too, he'd have done what almost every single country has done and this crisis would've boosted his popularity and been a clear re-election calling card, as most successfully met challenges are for presidents (9/11 for Bush, for example). I protected you, this really bad thing happened and I dealt with it well, you can trust me to have your back for 4 more years, etc.

 

Instead, it revealed him without a shadow of a doubt to be an incompetent bullshit artist who has no idea how to do the actual job, and polls reflect that.

 

As for the market, it's always going to do what it's going to do. People think it should work in lockstep with the underlying economy, but if you look at the facts, it rarely does, too many factors and reflexive feedback mechanisms. If it did, it would be a lot easier to predict, because the economy moves a lot slower than the market..

 

While this is true, contrary to the beloved narrative some here like to peddle, I really could care less about whether Trump handled things in a way that best suited his political ambitions. In fact, theres probably a greater source of truth to the argument that without some degree of mismanagement, we wouldn't have the stimulus and rate policies that are making certain long and short term investments available and extremely compelling, not to mention predictable, right now. Short term, you have capital markets completely open at outrageous rates to companies just recently believed to be on the brink of "extinction"...longer term, you have guaranteed low rates and a put option of a party change which has already committed to an outrageous level of money printing, and yet inflation protected assets in irreplaceable locations trading at historic spreads against treasuries....

 

Make piss out of lemons much?

[Gregmal]

And.......the last couple posts really just provide confirmation of the void of useful investment related conversation on... an investment board. Cheers!

[Gregmal]

It's hilarious that there are still people in this thread who after the previous 4-5 months basically think this virus is NBD. Good lord.

 

Got it. You think this is a significantly bigger deal and the market should be much lower and you're buying FB and IAC at questionable multiples(if your analysis is correct) and economically sensitive MA, and doomsday virus related business pureplay Berkshire.... yes. Very consistent. In fact, logically, that is incompatible. But dont dare discuss, stick to one liners.

[DooDiligence]

And.......the last couple posts really just provide confirmation of the void of useful investment related conversation on... an investment board. Cheers!

 

You shouldn't be so hard on yourself, troll away.

[Dalal.Holdings]

It's hilarious that there are still people in this thread who after the previous 4-5 months basically think this virus is NBD. Good lord.

 

Let them continue to pound it in.

[jschembs]

Strictly from a market perspective, its amusing seeing the media ramp up the aggressiveness of the COVID will end the US narrative, knowing its their last chance to possibly get Trump out of office. Meanwhile, we're getting "I told you so's" and "I was right and everyone else was wrong" from people who advocated going to cash and shorting in March, and all the while the potency of the virus decays towards a very flu like number, and the market grinds higher basically saying "fool me once...."

 

I guess all thats left for some is to say "bubble" and still conclude the virus will end the US.... good luck with that.

 

I think you're misreading the situation.

 

I think Trump's problems are self-inflicted. If he was a little smart and a little competent and had a little empathy, and was surrounded by people like that too, he'd have done what almost every single country has done and this crisis would've boosted his popularity and been a clear re-election calling card, as most successfully met challenges are for presidents (9/11 for Bush, for example). I protected you, this really bad thing happened and I dealt with it well, you can trust me to have your back for 4 more years, etc.

 

Instead, it revealed him without a shadow of a doubt to be an incompetent bullshit artist who has no idea how to do the actual job, and polls reflect that.

 

As for the market, it's always going to do what it's going to do. People think it should work in lockstep with the underlying economy, but if you look at the facts, it rarely does, too many factors and reflexive feedback mechanisms. If it did, it would be a lot easier to predict, because the economy moves a lot slower than the market..

 

While this is true, contrary to the beloved narrative some here like to peddle, I really could care less about whether Trump handled things in a way that best suited his political ambitions. In fact, theres probably a greater source of truth to the argument that without some degree of mismanagement, we wouldn't have the stimulus and rate policies that are making certain long and short term investments available and extremely compelling, not to mention predictable, right now. Short term, you have capital markets completely open at outrageous rates to companies just recently believed to be on the brink of "extinction"...longer term, you have guaranteed low rates and a put option of a party change which has already committed to an outrageous level of money printing, and yet inflation protected assets in irreplaceable locations trading at historic spreads against treasuries....

 

What are these extremely compelling long and short term investments you speak of?

[Liberty]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/politics/white-house-cdc-house-testimony-schools/index.html

 

“ White House blocks CDC from testifying on reopening schools next week”

 

I’m sure they only had good things to say, but the public doesn’t need to know what the CDC thinks about this... Jared has got it under control.

[Liberty]

“Trump says 'I don't agree' with CDC director's mask message“

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/trump-says-i-dont-agree-with-cdc-directors-mask-message.html

 

[cwericb]

If, I am drinking and my judgement is impaired, and I get behind the wheel and accidentally kill someone I will be charged with manslaughter.

 

If I make a conscious, unimpaired decision to refuse to wear a mask and accidentally give someone the Coronavirus who later dies, should I not be charged with manslaughter?

[rb]

If, I am drinking and my judgement is impaired, I get behind the wheel and accidentlly kill someone I will be charged with manslaughter.

 

If I make a conscious, unimpaired decision to refuse to wear a mask and accidently give someone the Coronavirus who later dies, should I not be charged with manslaughter?

It's an interesting point. I've thought about this in the past because it kinda works like that with HIV. I'm not sure how it will shake out. But I am sure sooner rather than later this issue will come before the courts.

[cwericb]

Excellent point on HIV.

[Gregmal]

Strictly from a market perspective, its amusing seeing the media ramp up the aggressiveness of the COVID will end the US narrative, knowing its their last chance to possibly get Trump out of office. Meanwhile, we're getting "I told you so's" and "I was right and everyone else was wrong" from people who advocated going to cash and shorting in March, and all the while the potency of the virus decays towards a very flu like number, and the market grinds higher basically saying "fool me once...."

 

I guess all thats left for some is to say "bubble" and still conclude the virus will end the US.... good luck with that.

 

I think you're misreading the situation.

 

I think Trump's problems are self-inflicted. If he was a little smart and a little competent and had a little empathy, and was surrounded by people like that too, he'd have done what almost every single country has done and this crisis would've boosted his popularity and been a clear re-election calling card, as most successfully met challenges are for presidents (9/11 for Bush, for example). I protected you, this really bad thing happened and I dealt with it well, you can trust me to have your back for 4 more years, etc.

 

Instead, it revealed him without a shadow of a doubt to be an incompetent bullshit artist who has no idea how to do the actual job, and polls reflect that.

 

As for the market, it's always going to do what it's going to do. People think it should work in lockstep with the underlying economy, but if you look at the facts, it rarely does, too many factors and reflexive feedback mechanisms. If it did, it would be a lot easier to predict, because the economy moves a lot slower than the market..

 

While this is true, contrary to the beloved narrative some here like to peddle, I really could care less about whether Trump handled things in a way that best suited his political ambitions. In fact, theres probably a greater source of truth to the argument that without some degree of mismanagement, we wouldn't have the stimulus and rate policies that are making certain long and short term investments available and extremely compelling, not to mention predictable, right now. Short term, you have capital markets completely open at outrageous rates to companies just recently believed to be on the brink of "extinction"...longer term, you have guaranteed low rates and a put option of a party change which has already committed to an outrageous level of money printing, and yet inflation protected assets in irreplaceable locations trading at historic spreads against treasuries....

 

What are these extremely compelling long and short term investments you speak of?

 

I'll respond out of respect this is a legitimate question and not some attempt to nitpick or fight like a lot of posters seem to want to do.

 

Short term, just look at who's making money...everyone. Pick your fancy and your strategy or risk tolerance. As some of us discussed on another thread here, even the most conservative of fellows could have bought pre deal SPAC significantly below NAV. Even still, right now, you've got a risk skew where buying pre deal SPAC stuff is interesting as a lot of deals are getting 20%+ pops on announcement, vs an set downside via redemption. Further short term, you've got obvious as F bankruptcy candidates getting lifelines they dont deserve, but still without any shot ever, of getting out of the death spiral. I've previously mentioned some names, almost all of them filed, including CBL last night. You've also got froth inspired pump and dumps popping up; and IPO's going batshit again. All this made possible by the current goldilocks scenario enabled by everything brought about by the virus.

 

Longer term is pretty easy, IMO. Again, pick your preference. Berkshire is probably as cheap as it's been in a very long time. You've got REIT's trading a historic spreads to treasuries while still providing protection against possible inflation. You've got stuff in specific locations or sectors, that is purely time arbitrage. IE NYC RE or sports and entertainment. This stuff largely de-risked by the fact that herd immunity or vaccine, 2 years from now this will be over and we've already gotten proof through the rabid behavior of society upon reopening; people are not scarred and certainly won't refuse to resume their normal course lives once this is all over. The only question to ask oneself is how much volatility can you handle over the next 12-24 months? The risk of course is watch the balance sheets.

 

But, strictly in terms of being a market participant, there really is something for everyone in this type of market. As a whole, I certainly think its overvalued. But I dont think continuing to hope the virus pops the bubble is fruitful. Pick which Dave you want to be. You can be like Einhorn, and despite continuously being wrong, continue to think you are right and that eventually you'll be proven so; or you can be like Tepper and cautiously reevaluate the variable until you find which ones are driving the correlation. Once you find the strings that move the puppet, you can plan much more accordingly. Rather than waiting for 100k corona cases a day and then going "ZOMG! the market is so overvalued and people are dying"....

 

EDIT: was just reminded of another prosperous strategy some board members have made money on of late, the "Quote Graham but buy RobinHood" strategy. Buy TSLA, PTON, HTZ, NKLA!