Coronavirus

[cubsfan]

More ridiculous regulations from the LEFT:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/06/23/oregon-county-issues-face-mask-order-exempting-non-white-people/

 

Lincoln County, Oregon, has exempted non-white people from a new order requiring that face coverings be worn in public — to prevent racial profiling.

 

Health officials announced last week residents must wear face coverings in public settings where they may come within six feet of another individual who is not from the same household.

 

But people of color do not have to follow the new rule if they have “heightened concerns about racial profiling and harassment” over wearing the masks, officials said.

[Cigarbutt]

It's hard to know exactly what's going with the increase in positive testing in the warmer states.  There are a number of theories out there.  I strongly recommend watching the video below. 

Assuming some level of immutability of virus behavior, we may simply be seeing what happens in a very large country with dramatically different geographies.

Perhaps ...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbTNx76UwAA6mZV?format=jpg&name=900x900

It is very curious that U.S. is the only country showing these dynamics.

Canada, as an example, has increased testing but decreased cases and hospitalizations despite reopening. And our cases are also skewing younger.

And it is very strange how the sunbelt was largely spared in March but seems on the edge of a major outbreak now.

So weird.

I also found this to be weird.  Maybe it's because in the sunbelt, the winters are milder so that people tend to go outside in March.  But June is hot and scorching so people tend to stay indoors in AC.  So you have the opposite of the NYC in winter dynamic where everyone is coup up inside.  Can't really go outside that much in Texas during the day or Vegas for that matter.

Nate Silver did some simple regressions on this, plausible explanation, but will be difficult to isolate and prove.

The virus is likely to have some seasonality features. Those seasonality features will be a function of 1-the virus itself (the virus will slowly mutate but this is an intrinsic feature), 2-the "climate" (the climate can be changed to some degree but this is basically a difficult entity to control on a short-term basis) and 3-individual behavior (individual behavior is related to internal drivers but can be modified by extrinsic factors, which can be a significant feature in 'advanced' societies, can be positive or negative and can overestimate the difference in regional behaviors as people tend to react similarly to similar phenomena.

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_202080v2.pdf

 

While "staying indoors" can be a risk factor for transmission in certain selected scenarios and in selected time frames, it's surprising that this factor could be considered a major factor at large or a factor in resurgence activity, when referring to an epidemic spread.. There is also the risk that autocorrelated innuendos may contribute to the feeding of certain beliefs and to suppression of critical information that the rational part of brains may be suggesting. It's a slippery slope and that may be why certain people are suggesting to go back to forests in order to smell floating chemicals that increase the potency of natural killer cells, suggesting that the way to go is to revert to being hunters and gatherers. Reminder: Stock exchanges did not exist then and the concept of simply and slowly getting rich did not survive very well.

 

---o---

 

Resurgence activity is expected to go up when opening up. It's simply that the pattern is unusual in certain states, warrants close inspection and precautionary action and cannot be explained significantly by the higher use of seasonal air conditioning. The tension between the uniformity of public policy response and individual freedoms is playing out and there is a specific risk-reward profile related to that.

https://rt.live/

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-surge-map-7714f8d1-5ba1-46f8-9bf3-5d59938f2c95.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

i bet the next rally will be in Michigan.

[Liberty]

Tomas Pueyo:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-reopen-travel-safely-f5951dfe06f0

 

"Coronavirus: How to Reopen Travel Safely"

[Parsad]

More ridiculous regulations from the LEFT:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/06/23/oregon-county-issues-face-mask-order-exempting-non-white-people/

 

Lincoln County, Oregon, has exempted non-white people from a new order requiring that face coverings be worn in public — to prevent racial profiling.

 

Health officials announced last week residents must wear face coverings in public settings where they may come within six feet of another individual who is not from the same household.

 

But people of color do not have to follow the new rule if they have “heightened concerns about racial profiling and harassment” over wearing the masks, officials said.

 

Can you please leave your politics in the "Politics" section!  Lincoln County is 99% white...the Lincoln County Commissioners who made the decision are picked by the populace...what does that have to do with left or right?  Geez!  Cheers!

[Peregrine]

The way that NYC's hospitalization and positivity rates have fallen so steeply (despite weeks of mass protests beginning a month ago) looks a lot like that of other hard hit cities like Lombardy and London. With time I'm leaning more and more to the view that this virus is extremely aggressive in attacking the susceptible population quickly, upon which it fairly quickly subsides as it finds far fewer susceptible bodies to enter. This might also explain why the younger population have had far lower infection rates in comparison, despite being far more socially interactive than older folks. Seems clear that there are other aspects of the immune system at play other than just antibodies.

[KCLarkin]

What's happening across the South is exactly what it looks like. Terrible management (and selfish behaviour). Climate might be a factor, but you still need to manage the pandemic.

 

Even if you are going for a herd immunity approach, you want to avoid exponential growth. You have a risk budget that balances to Rt < 1.

 

Here is an interesting analysis I saw on twitter @imgrund:

 

FLORIDA*:

May 19th - 502 cases daily

June 25th - 5552

Rt = 1.24

 

ONTARIO:

May 19th - 502 cases daily

June 25th - 189

Rt = 0.91

 

A relatively small difference in Rt resulted in 30x the daily cases in one month.

 

You don't need lockdowns. You just need competent leadership and a cooperative spirit.

 

With Rt of only 1.24, Florida will avoid a NYC outcome. But they will have a very high base level of disease.

 

 

* I am using Florida as an example here because this is the data I have. But other states are worse.

 

[clutch]

 

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

[ERICOPOLY]

Microsoft founder Bill Gates said he talks to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, regularly.

 

 

In terms of a timeline, Gates said he's aligned with Fauci on his prediction that there will be a viable vaccine by the end of the year, or early 2021.

 

Gates explained that there are two characteristics being evaluated in developing a vaccine. Firstly, that the vaccine prevents you from getting sick and secondly, that it prevents you spreading it to others.

 

On the latter, he warned that "it's not guaranteed that the vaccine will be a perfect transmission blocker."

 

Despite that, Gates said recent evidence points to the antibody response being "very strong," which suggests about a year of immunity to anyone who gets the disease.

 

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-25-20-intl/h_f9cdeec8b36668a90a2807116308916e

[Investor20]

Microsoft founder Bill Gates said he talks to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, regularly.

 

 

In terms of a timeline, Gates said he's aligned with Fauci on his prediction that there will be a viable vaccine by the end of the year, or early 2021.

 

Gates explained that there are two characteristics being evaluated in developing a vaccine. Firstly, that the vaccine prevents you from getting sick and secondly, that it prevents you spreading it to others.

 

On the latter, he warned that "it's not guaranteed that the vaccine will be a perfect transmission blocker."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8331709/Oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-does-not-stop-infection-experts-warn.html

 

In the latest animal trials of the vaccine carried out on rhesus macaques, all six of the participating monkeys went on to catch the coronavirus.

 

Dr William Haseltine, a former Harvard Medical School professor, revealed the monkeys who received the vaccine had the same amount of virus in their noses as the three non-vaccinated monkeys in the trial.

 

Despite that, Gates said recent evidence points to the antibody response being "very strong," which suggests about a year of immunity to anyone who gets the disease.

 

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-25-20-intl/h_f9cdeec8b36668a90a2807116308916e

 

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/covid-19-antibodies-may-fade-little-2-months-103252806--abc-news-topstories.html

COVID-19 antibodies may fade in as little as 2 months, study says

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8331709/Oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-does-not-stop-infection-experts-warn.html

Doubts raised over Oxford coronavirus vaccine after ALL of the monkeys that took part in the trial are found to have contracted the disease

 

Oxford University vaccine has already been steam-rolled into human trials

 

In the latest animal trials of the vaccine carried out on rhesus macaques, all six of the participating monkeys went on to catch the coronavirus.

 

Dr William Haseltine, a former Harvard Medical School professor, revealed the monkeys who received the vaccine had the same amount of virus in their noses as the three non-vaccinated monkeys in the trial.

[Peregrine]

Here's a question: is it common for viruses to become less virulent over time? I've read that virus mutations do tend to make them less deadly, that in a Darwinian way lower virulence ensures that they are better able to replicate. But haven't seen any data on that so wondering if anyone else has come across anything.

[patience_and_focus]

Here's a question: is it common for viruses to become less virulent over time? I've read that virus mutations do tend to make them less deadly, that in a Darwinian way lower virulence ensures that they are better able to replicate. But haven't seen any data on that so wondering if anyone else has come across anything.

 

This is a good short read on this question -

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0690-4.pdf?proof=true1

[Liberty]

[Peregrine]

Here's a question: is it common for viruses to become less virulent over time? I've read that virus mutations do tend to make them less deadly, that in a Darwinian way lower virulence ensures that they are better able to replicate. But haven't seen any data on that so wondering if anyone else has come across anything.

 

This is a good short read on this question -

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0690-4.pdf?proof=true1

 

Thanks. I've found this as well: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200603/claims-of-a-weaker-covid-19-virus-disputed

 

In addition to a far better understanding of the virus and better treatment, there is a belief from Italian doctors on the ground that the virus's severity is declining: "In response to the WHO’s rebuttal of his claims, Bassetti says, “The WHO does not take care of patients. They are seated at a table in Geneva. These are the impressions of the majority of doctors on the ground. We have admitted more than 500 [COVID-19] patients at San Martino hospital since the beginning of the epidemic, and I have seen a dramatic reduction in the severity of the disease.”

[DocSnowball]

Anyone have a good place to track COVID-19 hospitalizations state by state in the US? I'm having a hard time getting to track this metric, and would like to do so closely. My thought is total cases are a good measure for the seeds that are fraught with possibility, and deaths are a lagging indicator by too much (by that time everyone already knows). There are enough seeds sown across the country to be concerned about some shoots coming up in more than one state in the months ahead, and the process could keep repeating itself until flu season arrives. Or not. 

 

Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator by 2-3 weeks but (increase in total cases AND increase in daily hospitalizations) is what I'd like to track closely.

 

Data fatigue seems to be an issue at least for myself, would like to snap out of it and prepare for the next phase. Thanks in advance and apologies for the naive question.

[Jurgis]

Anyone have a good place to track COVID-19 hospitalizations state by state in the US? I'm having a hard time getting to track this metric, and would like to do so closely. My thought is total cases are a good measure for the seeds that are fraught with possibility, and deaths are a lagging indicator by too much (by that time everyone already knows). There are enough seeds sown across the country to be concerned about some shoots coming up in more than one state in the months ahead, and the process could keep repeating itself until flu season arrives. Or not. 

 

Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator by 2-3 weeks but (increase in total cases AND increase in daily hospitalizations) is what I'd like to track closely.

 

Data fatigue seems to be an issue at least for myself, would like to snap out of it and prepare for the next phase. Thanks in advance and apologies for the naive question.

 

Not sure if you want raw data or something that track hospitalizations in all states in single graph.

I look at https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

which has hospitalizations, but you have to select particular state. Maybe there's a way to get underlying data or different graph(s), I'm not sure.

There's also this:

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/massachusetts#historical

It is also per state and numbers only, so you'd have to scrape/graph yourself.

[KCLarkin]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

[Peregrine]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

[Dalal.Holdings]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Nice attempt to spin the narrative to protestors. Last I checked, largest protests were in MN, NYC, DC which are not seeing the spikes. Instead it’s AZ, TX, FL. This is really not that complicated. The physics of droplet spread outdoors with protestors wearing masks is not a significant source of spread. Oh I forgot we like economic tools like regressions on here instead of physics.

 

Sorry to burst your political narrative.

 

Deflect from the guy in charge who runs indoor, maskless rallies in AZ and OK in just the past week.

[patience_and_focus]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Both are culprits but to different degrees. Bars are inside an enclosed place exposure, protests (and beaches and parks) are outside in open space exposure. This has dramatic impact on viral load and consequent spread and severity.

[Dalal.Holdings]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Both are culprits but to different degrees. Bars are inside an enclosed place exposure, protests (and beaches and parks) are outside in open space exposure. This has dramatic impact on viral load and consequent spread and severity.

 

Doesn’t explain why places with biggest protests are fine tho does it ?? FYI lots of protests happened in big EU cities too a few weeks ago after they saw what happened to Floyd.

[DocSnowball]

Anyone have a good place to track COVID-19 hospitalizations state by state in the US? I'm having a hard time getting to track this metric, and would like to do so closely. My thought is total cases are a good measure for the seeds that are fraught with possibility, and deaths are a lagging indicator by too much (by that time everyone already knows). There are enough seeds sown across the country to be concerned about some shoots coming up in more than one state in the months ahead, and the process could keep repeating itself until flu season arrives. Or not. 

 

Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator by 2-3 weeks but (increase in total cases AND increase in daily hospitalizations) is what I'd like to track closely.

 

Data fatigue seems to be an issue at least for myself, would like to snap out of it and prepare for the next phase. Thanks in advance and apologies for the naive question.

 

Not sure if you want raw data or something that track hospitalizations in all states in single graph.

I look at https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

which has hospitalizations, but you have to select particular state. Maybe there's a way to get underlying data or different graph(s), I'm not sure.

There's also this:

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/massachusetts#historical

It is also per state and numbers only, so you'd have to scrape/graph yourself.

 

Thanks, that's great. Really appreciate it.

[Peregrine]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Both are culprits but to different degrees. Bars are inside an enclosed place exposure, protests (and beaches and parks) are outside in open space exposure. This has dramatic impact on viral load and consequent spread and severity.

 

Doesn’t explain why places with biggest protests are fine tho does it ?? FYI lots of protests happened in big EU cities too a few weeks ago after they saw what happened to Floyd.

 

I think the most likely factor here is that the cities that saw very low levels of spread earlier on are now seeing more. That places like NYC and London continue to see declines in positivity rate despite widespread protests signals that the level of immunity in the population is an important factor.

[Peregrine]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Nice attempt to spin the narrative to protestors. Last I checked, largest protests were in MN, NYC, DC which are not seeing the spikes. Instead it’s AZ, TX, FL. This is really not that complicated. The physics of droplet spread outdoors with protestors wearing masks is not a significant source of spread. Oh I forgot we like economic tools like regressions on here instead of physics.

 

Sorry to burst your political narrative.

 

Deflect from the guy in charge who runs indoor, maskless rallies in AZ and OK in just the past week.

 

Lol what? I never once said that reopened bars don’t increase risk of spread but thanks for putting words in my mouth.

 

Btw, Southern California is also seeing rise in positivity rate despite bars being closed. I find it hard to attribute “blue state” policy to declining infections when that relationship is fairly shaky.

[Dalal.Holdings]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Don't think that you can attribute solely reopened bars for the increased spread. I think the widespread protests that has been occurring for a month now likely created plenty of vectors for spread. That some places are now seeing outbreaks shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a bit surprising is that NYC, by far the hardest hit city in the US, keeps seeing declines.

 

Both are culprits but to different degrees. Bars are inside an enclosed place exposure, protests (and beaches and parks) are outside in open space exposure. This has dramatic impact on viral load and consequent spread and severity.

 

Doesn’t explain why places with biggest protests are fine tho does it ?? FYI lots of protests happened in big EU cities too a few weeks ago after they saw what happened to Floyd.

 

I think the most likely factor here is that the cities that saw very low levels of spread earlier on are now seeing more. That places like NYC and London continue to see declines in positivity rate despite widespread protests signals that the level of immunity in the population is an important factor.

 

Nope, antibody positive rate in NYC is only about 15-20%. Also many EU cities had big Floyd protests and did not have spread like NYC previously. Try again.

[Liberty]

I don't thinks its doom and gloom with the increased cases. They are just doing more testing, which is what everyone wanted.

 

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April.

 

But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases.

 

I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget".

 

Yeah, the "they're just doing more testing" thing is just a simple one-liner cover for people who don't want to think about it and who haven't looked at the numbers. I'm seeing that in Florida it can take a couple weeks to get a test result in many places, so some stats are also behind where reality on the ground is.

 

There's many many variables. 

 

I think there's a good chance that severity has gone down because of higher vitamin D during the summer, plus lower viral load exposure because most places have been shut down and social distanced and there's more masks, which means that even if you get it now, it's probably not as bad as in early March when those who got it were packed in public transit full of people coughing and with a fever but who didn't think much of it, not washing their hands much, etc...

 

The fall/winter with be a test of the vitamin D hypothesis.

 

In any case, places like Italy and France and Spain are showing new cases in the sub-1000 range after having pretty bad outbreaks, so we know exactly how to control it. The US just needs to do it, but it can't, because the president has politicized a virus and masks, and his enablers don't have enough of a spine to stand up to him and say it's bonkers and he should let the grown ups deal with the pandemic.