Dalal.Holdings Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 Actually, there appears to be no correlation between actual social isolation and covid deaths. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYJsd8iUcAEsSCS?format=jpg&name=medium https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264596818429505537 El Gato Malo has done some really interesting analysis that I would suggest people check out. Oh boy, regression analysis to hunt for correlations. Where could we go wrong? Let’s ignore basic physics of respiratory droplet spread and trust regression analysis! Please ignore Sweden and Italy/Spain/NY/NJ post lockdown. Some will never learn, dragging the U.S. through a never ending pandemic quagmire...
Liberty Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 Yeah, thanks for cracking down on the hundreds of mob/protest gatherings to spread your disease. Aren't they planning a large political rally tomorrow? I think protesting police brutality and corruption and racism may be a cause worth taking risks for, but getting on stage to get some narcissistic supply may not rise to that level... Of course! The Hypocrisy of the LEFT speaks once again! Justify the nobility of rioting/protesting/looting in addition to a dozen murders while spreading the disease unchecked! Beautiful! Thank you.! I'm not left, and there's plenty of hypocrisy on both side. You're the one who seems to be ignoring that fact. It just happens that the left isn't in charge of the executive branch right now.. Well, the right isn't either. Trump is just about Trump, not about any specific ideology (he used to be a democrat, right?). But if you can't tell the difference between a civil rights movement and a political rally, maybe check your biases and blind spots. There were protests in Hong Kong too.. Sometimes you have to take risks to fight for something important that may have long-lasting, historical impacts.
cubsfan Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 Yeah, thanks for cracking down on the hundreds of mob/protest gatherings to spread your disease. Aren't they planning a large political rally tomorrow? I think protesting police brutality and corruption and racism may be a cause worth taking risks for, but getting on stage to get some narcissistic supply may not rise to that level... Of course! The Hypocrisy of the LEFT speaks once again! Justify the nobility of rioting/protesting/looting in addition to a dozen murders while spreading the disease unchecked! Beautiful! Thank you.! I'm not left, and there's plenty of hypocrisy on both side. You're the one who seems to be ignoring that fact. It just happens that the left isn't in charge of the executive branch right now.. Well, the right isn't either. Trump is just about Trump, not about any specific ideology (he used to be a democrat, right?). But if you can't tell the difference between a civil rights movement and a political rally, maybe check your biases and blind spots. There were protests in Hong Kong too.. Sometimes you have to take risks to fight for something important that may have long-lasting, historical impacts. What a frickin' pile of bullshit from you! Yeah - "civil rights movement" ala "Martin Luther King" - what crap! MLK NEVER presided over rioting and looting. It appalled the man. The greatest civil rights leader in the country, MLK, would be turning over in his grave listening to Al Sharpton, Whoopi Goldberg, Bill de Blasio, Farrakan, Maxine Waters and all these other race baiters justifying these riots and looting. You don't know the difference between civil disobedience and anarchy/violence.
Investor20 Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 The COVI-19 infection numbers are pretty bad today with 3k+ infections in CA, TC, FL and 2.5k in AZ. AZ is about the same size than MA and we hit a limit with 3k hospitalizations. I think AZ is at 1.7k now, but rapidly rising. If this keeps up they will reach 3k in a week and then they do need to shut down, or risk of running out of hospital capacity. Or perhaps they take it more serious now and avoid all that trouble. I am not sure what you are trying to prove. The deaths are going down much more sharper than new cases. That shows CFR is going down. And Arizona deaths/million is 180. NY is 1598.
Investor20 Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 Yeah, thanks for cracking down on the hundreds of mob/protest gatherings to spread your disease. Aren't they planning a large political rally tomorrow? I think protesting police brutality and corruption and racism may be a cause worth taking risks for, but getting on stage to get some narcissistic supply may not rise to that level... Of course! The Hypocrisy of the LEFT speaks once again! Justify the nobility of rioting/protesting/looting in addition to a dozen murders while spreading the disease unchecked! Beautiful! Thank you.! I'm not left, and there's plenty of hypocrisy on both side. You're the one who seems to be ignoring that fact. It just happens that the left isn't in charge of the executive branch right now.. Well, the right isn't either. Trump is just about Trump, not about any specific ideology (he used to be a democrat, right?). But if you can't tell the difference between a civil rights movement and a political rally, maybe check your biases and blind spots. There were protests in Hong Kong too.. Sometimes you have to take risks to fight for something important that may have long-lasting, historical impacts. What a frickin' pile of bullshit from you! Yeah - "civil rights movement" ala "Martin Luther King" - what crap! MLK NEVER presided over rioting and looting. It appalled the man. The greatest civil rights leader in the country, MLK, would be turning over in his grave listening to Al Sharpton, Whoopi Goldberg, Bill de Blasio, Farrakan, Maxine Waters and all these other race baiters justifying these riots and looting. You don't know the difference between civil disobedience and anarchy/violence. I know this is Coronavirus thread. But this is said too many times. Check Washingpost data base on police killings of unarmed blacks. 2015: 38; 2019: 14. 2019 is lowest full year of the five years in database. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/
rb Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 The COVI-19 infection numbers are pretty bad today with 3k+ infections in CA, TC, FL and 2.5k in AZ. AZ is about the same size than MA and we hit a limit with 3k hospitalizations. I think AZ is at 1.7k now, but rapidly rising. If this keeps up they will reach 3k in a week and then they do need to shut down, or risk of running out of hospital capacity. Or perhaps they take it more serious now and avoid all that trouble. I am not sure what you are trying to prove. The deaths are going down much more sharper than new cases. That shows CFR is going down. And Arizona deaths/million is 180. NY is 1598. That's gonna be interesting to watch if it's more or less deadly in Arizona. Arizona recently started to spike, so we'll need a few more weeks to see mortality.
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 For some reason, the USA, the global epicenter of the pandemic (despite being hit late), continues to look bad and worse than just about any other place in the world including Wuhan and Italy. Surely this must be due to some 2 weeks protests in early June or the governor of a single state and yet have nothing to do with national leadership. Love reading the arguments that attempt to deflect the blame and our political brigade’s success in introducing topics such as flags up in this thread. Carry on and enjoy the rally.
Investor20 Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 The COVI-19 infection numbers are pretty bad today with 3k+ infections in CA, TC, FL and 2.5k in AZ. AZ is about the same size than MA and we hit a limit with 3k hospitalizations. I think AZ is at 1.7k now, but rapidly rising. If this keeps up they will reach 3k in a week and then they do need to shut down, or risk of running out of hospital capacity. Or perhaps they take it more serious now and avoid all that trouble. I am not sure what you are trying to prove. The deaths are going down much more sharper than new cases. That shows CFR is going down. And Arizona deaths/million is 180. NY is 1598. That's gonna be interesting to watch if it's more or less deadly in Arizona. Arizona recently started to spike, so we'll need a few more weeks to see mortality. If we take California, the cases had been increasing constantly, never went down. In mid April they had 1100 cases/day with about 70 deaths by end of April. 6.4% CFR. Early June CA had 2600 cases/day with about 60 deaths present. 2.3% CFR. More than doubling of cases in CA resulted in less deaths. Data from Worldometer with 7day averaging.
RichardGibbons Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 You are very good at taking a statement and giving completely wrong context. You know, there's a very easy way around this problem of saying something today that doesn't agree with the stuff you said in the past. All you have to do is say something like, "Back when I said that, I thought the Swedish approach was working, but now it seems like it might not be. Today, the Japanese approach seems to be working and has had minimal impact on the economy, so I think that's a good approach. At all times, I try to support best-practices based on the information I have, so that's why my view has changed somewhat." When you just take your current view and pretend that you've always had that view--despite evidence that everyone can read--it just makes you seem stubborn and silly for no good reason. Seriously, there's nothing wrong with changing your opinions when new evidence arises.
RichardGibbons Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 See this is the problem with these people. They are selfish and have zero grasp on principles. Do we allow large gatherings? Or not? Plain and simple, yes or no. Do you allow people to fly pieces of cloth, yes or no. Do we believe every women who makes a sex assault claim? Yes or no? And thats it. But to these people, its yes here, no there...yes to what I feel, no to you....oh I agree with this so yes, I dont like that so no.... Yeah, this is so true. The world would be a much easier place to live in if everything were black and white, no shades of grey. It totally sucks that existence is so complicated.
jamesmadison Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 Actually, there appears to be no correlation between actual social isolation and covid deaths. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYJsd8iUcAEsSCS?format=jpg&name=medium https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264596818429505537 El Gato Malo has done some really interesting analysis that I would suggest people check out. Oh boy, regression analysis to hunt for correlations. Where could we go wrong? Let’s ignore basic physics of respiratory droplet spread and trust regression analysis! Please ignore Sweden and Italy/Spain/NY/NJ post lockdown. Some will never learn, dragging the U.S. through a never ending pandemic quagmire... "Basic physics of respiratory droplet spread"? What does that have to do with my point? More importantly, perhaps you didn't capture the point being made in his analyses. He notes that not only is there NO positive correlation between physical distancing and reduced covid mortality but that in fact there appears to be a negative correlation! While we all know that correlation does not prove causation, the absence of correlation - indeed the presence of a negative correlation - very strongly calls into question the argument that social distancing reduced covid mortality. He notices this in BOTH comparisons of countries and US states. Given the unquestionable massive social costs of such policies, it is incumbent on governments to demonstrate they work. This has not been done. The fact that essentially useless models from Imperial College and IHME are being invoked is beyond perverse. They argue that since the dire predictions did not occur, social distancing worked. This is laughable at best. If you really want to know where Covid wreaked havoc, focus on states and countries that did a poor job of protecting the aged and infirm. NY, NJ, CT, and MA all forced nursing homes to take back Covid+ patients - the four states with the highest per capital deaths in the USA. You know who else forced nursing homes to take back Covid+ patients? Italy.
Cigarbutt Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 -The dexamethasone data appears strong but the work needs to be dissected to the bone and replicated. Given the drug profile and price, it is very reasonable to include it in standard protocols (it's only a variation on a well known theme). i just want to add also that the drug is likely to make a difference only in the sickest patients (which is still a big +) and primary or secondary prevention tend to work better than third degree. Also, dexamethasone belongs to the steroid class which is a class used to treat many conditions and most treatment decisions are based on tradition. Cortisol-like treatment is very similar to QE in a way. It seems to work in very adverse situations . The following is technical but may be interesting to some. This is developing (much like the evolving knowledge discovery of transmission risk in certain specific asymptomatic groups) but it seems that, unrelated to antibodies presence, there is a subgroup in the population that is able to effectively mount an immune response to COVID-19 even with no previous specific exposure. Age and general host conditions are obviously relevant but previous exposure to coronavirus or even other virus may have contributed, over time, to some kind of latent immunity in certain populations. https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3 1) about dexa: corticoid use in severely ill covid patients was very likely already a norm, due to its use in ARDS. As such, unfortunately, I'm not sure it will save that many lives. 2) about other coronavirus, this was already a possibility raised early in the pandemic: rolling Full Member Posts: 135 Re: Coronavirus « Reply #1380 on: March 13, 2020, 09:28:38 AM » There are other possible explanations. Children, who are typically bombarded with certain other coronaviruses, such as the ones that cause the common cold, may have antibodies in their bloodstream from exposure to those that offers some cross-protection for this virus, said Dr. Buddy Creech, an associate professor of pediatric infectious diseases at Vanderbilt Children's Hospital. Why don't authorities throughout the world bomb us with regular coronavirus cold? For sure the US have some inoffensive coronavirus on labs that they could spread, right? It looks like some are suggesting the god ole MMR vaccine to boost immunity in a nonspecific way: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-mmr-vaccine-worst-symptoms-covid-.html It's ironic, to some degree, that, at the early stage of the disease, one aims to boost immunity and, at the late stage of the disease, one aims to stop the excessive (and detrimental) immunity response (with dexamethasone and the like). There is an interesting parallel with disease management at the population level and it can get confusing. Maybe that helps to explain why, in many parts of the US, the rates of cases are going up while the rates of testing are going down..
cubsfan Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 If you really want to know where Covid wreaked havoc, focus on states and countries that did a poor job of protecting the aged and infirm. NY, NJ, CT, and MA all forced nursing homes to take back Covid+ patients - the four states with the highest per capital deaths in the USA. You know who else forced nursing homes to take back Covid+ patients? Italy. Please JM - this is real data and requires too much common sense, which is usually ignored here. +1
Gregmal Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 See this is the problem with these people. They are selfish and have zero grasp on principles. Do we allow large gatherings? Or not? Plain and simple, yes or no. Do you allow people to fly pieces of cloth, yes or no. Do we believe every women who makes a sex assault claim? Yes or no? And thats it. But to these people, its yes here, no there...yes to what I feel, no to you....oh I agree with this so yes, I dont like that so no.... Yeah, this is so true. The world would be a much easier place to live in if everything were black and white, no shades of grey. It totally sucks that existence is so complicated. Its actually not complicated at all. Its defined by the constitution.
vinod1 Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 Common sense to a Trump supporter - Injecting with bleach :)
Liberty Posted June 19, 2020 Posted June 19, 2020 https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117 “ Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19”
cwericb Posted June 20, 2020 Posted June 20, 2020 “Common sense to a Trump supporter - Injecting with bleach” Or stick a flashlight up your a$$ But as the great man himself said... "If we stop testing right now, we'd have very few cases, if any," And people vote for this twit.”
Spekulatius Posted June 20, 2020 Posted June 20, 2020 The COVI-19 infection numbers are pretty bad today with 3k+ infections in CA, TC, FL and 2.5k in AZ. AZ is about the same size than MA and we hit a limit with 3k hospitalizations. I think AZ is at 1.7k now, but rapidly rising. If this keeps up they will reach 3k in a week and then they do need to shut down, or risk of running out of hospital capacity. Or perhaps they take it more serious now and avoid all that trouble. I am not sure what you are trying to prove. The deaths are going down much more sharper than new cases. That shows CFR is going down. And Arizona deaths/million is 180. NY is 1598. I believe you are correct that CFR rate is going down. The reason are two fold in my opinion: 1) in NYC, the health care capacity was exceeded which meant that only the most serious cases got admission. Since disease progression is hard to predict with COVID some patients got admitted to the hospital too late. 2) Treatment has vastly improved since March, Doctored understand much better how to prevent severe diseases progression and how to deal with clotting, inflammation etc. This all helps bringing down CFR rate and progress is ongoing.
samwise Posted June 20, 2020 Posted June 20, 2020 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYJsd8iUcAEsSCS?format=jpg&name=medium El Gato Malo has done some really interesting analysis that I would suggest people check out "Basic physics of respiratory droplet spread"? What does that have to do with my point? More importantly, perhaps you didn't capture the point being made in his analyses. He notes that not only is there NO positive correlation between physical distancing and reduced covid mortality but that in fact there appears to be a negative correlation! While we all know that correlation does not prove causation, the absence of correlation - indeed the presence of a negative correlation - very strongly calls into question the argument that social distancing reduced covid mortality. He notices this in BOTH comparisons of countries and US states. Given the unquestionable massive social costs of such policies, it is incumbent on governments to demonstrate they work. This has not been done. The fact that essentially useless models from Imperial College and IHME are being invoked is beyond perverse. They argue that since the dire predictions did not occur, social distancing worked. This is laughable at best. Very interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing. I had two thoughts when I saw the graph of deaths vs mobility. 1. A common sense explanation which makes me think there is causation here: you can tell people all you want that they should stay home and apart, but they only listen when the bodies pile up. 2. The r-square is ~50%. This is wonderful billionaire territory for financial market predictions and rubbish noise in laws of physics. Not sure where in the spectrum between rubbish and wonderful such an r-square is in “epidiomology”.
Spekulatius Posted June 20, 2020 Posted June 20, 2020 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYJsd8iUcAEsSCS?format=jpg&name=medium El Gato Malo has done some really interesting analysis that I would suggest people check out "Basic physics of respiratory droplet spread"? What does that have to do with my point? More importantly, perhaps you didn't capture the point being made in his analyses. He notes that not only is there NO positive correlation between physical distancing and reduced covid mortality but that in fact there appears to be a negative correlation! While we all know that correlation does not prove causation, the absence of correlation - indeed the presence of a negative correlation - very strongly calls into question the argument that social distancing reduced covid mortality. He notices this in BOTH comparisons of countries and US states. Given the unquestionable massive social costs of such policies, it is incumbent on governments to demonstrate they work. This has not been done. The fact that essentially useless models from Imperial College and IHME are being invoked is beyond perverse. They argue that since the dire predictions did not occur, social distancing worked. This is laughable at best. Very interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing. I had two thoughts when I saw the graph of deaths vs mobility. 1. A common sense explanation which makes me think there is causation here: you can tell people all you want that they should stay home and apart, but they only listen when the bodies pile up. 2. The r-square is ~50%. This is wonderful billionaire territory for financial market predictions and rubbish noise in laws of physics. Not sure where in the spectrum between rubbish and wonderful such an r-square is in “epidiomology”. R^2 =0.483 is pretty much rubbish in any field. Anyways, this is a multivariate problem. No single factor can explain everything.
SHDL Posted June 20, 2020 Posted June 20, 2020 I just spoke with some folks in Japan. Interestingly, they told me their cities were effectively shutdown because most people were staying home and many businesses were staying shut — both voluntarily, i.e., without being forced to do so by the government. They closed their schools and started restricting international travel very early in the process too. That is in addition to almost everyone wearing masks and everything that’s already been discussed in this thread. Just FYI. I don’t think the US has any chance of being like them.
ERICOPOLY Posted June 20, 2020 Posted June 20, 2020 Californians must wear face masks in public under coronavirus order issued by Newsom https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-18/california-mandatory-face-masks-statewide-order-coronavirus-gavin-newsom This is 100% the right move. This will help us beat this terrible virus. The science is unanimous - if we all wear masks, we slow down the spread and can reopen safely. It’s not a political issue. Anyone making it a political issue is an absolute moron who can’t read. The Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office is refusing to enforce California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) order requiring residents to wear face coverings in public as part of an effort to combat the Chinese coronavirus pandemic. The Sheriff’s Office said it would be “inappropriate” to criminally enforce Newsom’s mandate or punish individuals and businesses for not complying. Additionally, the Placer County Sheriff’s Office also said it will not uphold the order, spokeswoman Angela Musallam said. “We do hope (people) will take the rule to heart, but we have no interest in arresting or penalizing people who aren’t wearing masks in any way,” said Musallam. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/19/ssacramento-sheriff-refuses-to-enforce-newsoms-mask-order/
RichardGibbons Posted June 20, 2020 Posted June 20, 2020 See this is the problem with these people. They are selfish and have zero grasp on principles. Do we allow large gatherings? Or not? Plain and simple, yes or no. Do you allow people to fly pieces of cloth, yes or no. Do we believe every women who makes a sex assault claim? Yes or no? And thats it. But to these people, its yes here, no there...yes to what I feel, no to you....oh I agree with this so yes, I dont like that so no.... Yeah, this is so true. The world would be a much easier place to live in if everything were black and white, no shades of grey. It totally sucks that existence is so complicated. Its actually not complicated at all. Its defined by the constitution. Good point. I don't think anybody's every argued about the meaning of anything in the U.S. Constitution. Certainly no shades of grey there!
Investor20 Posted June 20, 2020 Posted June 20, 2020 I just spoke with some folks in Japan. Interestingly, they told me their cities were effectively shutdown because most people were staying home and many businesses were staying shut — both voluntarily, i.e., without being forced to do so by the government. They closed their schools and started restricting international travel very early in the process too. That is in addition to almost everyone wearing masks and everything that’s already been discussed in this thread. Just FYI. I don’t think the US has any chance of being like them. https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200421/p2g/00m/0na/083000c Only 18% of Japanese have stopped going to work due to COVID-19: poll TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Only 18 percent of people in Japan have stopped going to work due to the novel coronavirus, the lowest level in 26 countries and territories covered in a recent survey. https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200413/p2a/00m/0na/011000c Quite a number of people are seen commuting to work wearing masks on a train bound for JR Osaka Station, despite the prime minister's urges for a 70% reduction, in Osaka's Kita Ward on April 13, 2020. (Mainichi/Tatsuya Fujii) IZUMISANO, Osaka -- The area around JR Osaka Station remained crowded with people on April 13, despite Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to reduce commuter numbers by at least 70% following his April 7 state of emergency declaration.
RichardGibbons Posted June 20, 2020 Posted June 20, 2020 I believe you are correct that CFR rate is going down. The reason are two fold in my opinion: 1) in NYC, the health care capacity was exceeded which meant that only the most serious cases got admission. Since disease progression is hard to predict with COVID some patients got admitted to the hospital too late. 2) Treatment has vastly improved since March, Doctored understand much better how to prevent severe diseases progression and how to deal with clotting, inflammation etc. This all helps bringing down CFR rate and progress is ongoing. I also would include Investor20's point about nursing homes. I think it is a real thing and shouldn't be ignored simply because Investor20's focus seems to be on scoring political points rather than understanding the disease. Implementing best practices in nursing homes (as opposed to the previous worst practices of bringing in Covid-19 patients) can make a real difference in deaths. A big chunk of early deaths in Canada were because of nursing home infections, but there are far fewer cases now. And it seems clear by now that a randomly-selected infected person in a nursing home is on average going to have a much higher chance of death than a randomly-selected infected person who isn't in a nursing home. (Maybe you consider that part of your #2, but I'd include it as a separate item because improved infection avoidance of vulnerable people seems different than improved treatment.)
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