Coronavirus

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Here is a late stage U.S. pandemic thought for people to chew on. NYC area (and WA before that) are the focus. Most likely R naught is higher in NYC region due to population density (and due to global connections, earlier to get infected travelers)...so we have seen rapid rise in NYC cases. Gov Cuomo responding as aggressively as he can despite having odds stacked against him (most dense population in U.S.).

 

However, are we ignoring other places in the U.S.? Those places with much less healthy individuals (the American South)? The R naught is smaller due to less density, but there is likely still exponential growth occurring.

 

What's more is that those are places with governors/local leaders who are not taking this seriously/testing nearly as much as Cuomo... What's likely to happen in those places? Will we not end up detecting those cases early and instead just see a surge of critically ill patients show up to the healthcare system ? Does POTUS' influence not affect how seriously their leaders/they themselves are preparing for this?

 

As the images show, not the healthiest underlying population and less healthcare access. Additionally, if/when these places ramp up in cases, a lot of resources (PPE, ventilators, etc) may already have been diverted to NYC/northeast...Something to chew on.

[Gregmal]

So China knew about this in December and covered it up to prevent collapsing their New Year celebration and economic activity...

 

Italy chose political correctness over the health of their citizens...

 

Turdeau was so oblivious his wife got it...

 

And our president, despite dealing with a bogus impeachment circus still managed to take some actions prior to some of the "good" countries, and people are still bitching and moaning?

 

For the 100th time, I think anyone blaming or giving credit to Trump is off their rocker and pushing a narrative that really isn't necessary or productive at the moment. But by all means, keep the America bashing coming.

 

I'd also point out how highly offensive the "My Ni**a" photo from Training Day is.

[Gregmal]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/

 

There are several potential vaccines by now, some already under testing with human subjects. Real news would be if they find a way to determine the efficacy and safety within two months...

 

Exactly. I would wager bigly, that we have something ready to go by September/October.

[LC]

I'll just assume you missed it, since I know you are smarter than that.

 

Well, I won't turn down a compliment :D

 

But I will reiterate that Italy vs USA are two different cases. Adjusted for age the results are not as dissimilar and Italy did not have an extra 2-3 weeks of time to prepare. In other words, if we threw Trump as PM of Italy a few months ago, I'd wager their situation would be even worse.

 

China should get credit where it is due. They had to make quick decisions while a lot of that we know now was unknown then and of course what we're able to do now as far as testing and treatment. This just makes the USA reaction far, far worse.  My guess is that they were so effective simply by having everyone wear masks from the beginning and enforcing it. Iran is something completely different, it's a semi-failed state for years now, so who knows what's going to happen there, it surely is already out of control.

 

To me, I value honesty of approach. So while I applaud their efforts internally, I will say screw the CPC if they indeed withheld information from the international community about a global pandemic. No different than Trump with the hoax nonsense. In fact to the folks criticizing Fauci et al. for their initial comments, who is to say Trump didn't instruct the NIH & CDC to publicly downplay the virus' potential back in Jan/Feb? His administration certainly has a history of silencing any dissenting information from within the Federal gov't.

[meiroy]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/

 

There are several potential vaccines by now, some already under testing with human subjects. Real news would be if they find a way to determine the efficacy and safety within two months...

 

Exactly. I would wager bigly, that we have something ready to go by September/October.

 

+1 I'm wagering the vaccine is going to come out of China sooner then we expect. They simply HAVE to save the world.

 

[cubsfan]

So China knew about this in December and covered it up to prevent collapsing their New Year celebration and economic activity...

 

Italy chose political correctness over the health of their citizens...

 

Turdeau was so oblivious his wife got it...

 

And our president, despite dealing with a bogus impeachment circus still managed to take some actions prior to some of the "good" countries, and people are still bitching and moaning?

 

For the 100th time, I think anyone blaming or giving credit to Trump is off their rocker and pushing a narrative that really isn't necessary or productive at the moment. But by all means, keep the America bashing coming.

 

 

I think that's a really great summary. All the bitchers and moaners ought to try a wonderful place like China, Italy, Spain or Iran

should they contact CV.  The government responses have been far superior to the USA.

[meiroy]

So China knew about this in December and covered it up to prevent collapsing their New Year celebration and economic activity...

 

Italy chose political correctness over the health of their citizens...

 

Turdeau was so oblivious his wife got it...

 

And our president, despite dealing with a bogus impeachment circus still managed to take some actions prior to some of the "good" countries, and people are still bitching and moaning?

 

For the 100th time, I think anyone blaming or giving credit to Trump is off their rocker and pushing a narrative that really isn't necessary or productive at the moment. But by all means, keep the America bashing coming.

 

I'd also point out how highly offensive the "My Ni**a" photo from Training Day is.

 

I'm going to troll here now because why not. Still got coffee in the mug.

 

So, you're saying that the USA is just one of the bunch? No exceptionalism, just a mediocre country like all those countries? That the days of glory are over? That we shouldn't expect much of it and just surrender to South Korea? Is that what you're saying?

 

[Gregmal]

I'll just assume you missed it, since I know you are smarter than that.

 

Well, I won't turn down a compliment :D

 

But I will reiterate that Italy vs USA are two different cases. Adjusted for age the results are not as dissimilar and Italy did not have an extra 2-3 weeks of time to prepare. In other words, if we threw Trump as PM of Italy a few months ago, I'd wager their situation would be even worse.

 

China should get credit where it is due. They had to make quick decisions while a lot of that we know now was unknown then and of course what we're able to do now as far as testing and treatment. This just makes the USA reaction far, far worse.  My guess is that they were so effective simply by having everyone wear masks from the beginning and enforcing it. Iran is something completely different, it's a semi-failed state for years now, so who knows what's going to happen there, it surely is already out of control.

 

To me, I value honesty of approach. So while I applaud their efforts internally, I will say screw the CPC if they indeed withheld information from the international community about a global pandemic. No different than Trump with the hoax nonsense. In fact to the folks criticizing Fauci et al. for their initial comments, who is to say Trump didn't instruct the NIH & CDC to publicly downplay the virus' potential back in Jan/Feb? His administration certainly has a history of silencing any dissenting information from within the Federal gov't.

 

Politics aside, I ve been bothered the entire time by the public statements from literally everyone, from WHO to our government to other governments, which just dont vibe with the actions they have taken here. Nor does it vibe with unsophisticated politicians selling all their stock after a closed and confidential hearing.

 

The numbers are what they are but ultimately, not to be callous, but older folks with conditions dying isn't shut down the world worthy unless we all live in some moral utopia which we clearly do not. Theres clearly been a lot of lying going on, by everyone.

 

A most sinister brainstorm led me to some Hollywood like plot where China deliberately unleashed this on the world in order to grab power. Thats Spielberg story shit though, I hope.

[orthopa]

 

Here is a late stage U.S. pandemic thought for people to chew on. NYC area (and WA before that) are the focus. Most likely R naught is higher in NYC region due to population density (and due to global connections, earlier to get infected travelers)...so we have seen rapid rise in NYC cases. Gov Cuomo responding as aggressively as he can despite having odds stacked against him (most dense population in U.S.).

 

However, are we ignoring other places in the U.S.? Those places with much less healthy individuals (the American South)? The R naught is smaller due to less density, but there is likely still exponential growth occurring.

 

What's more is that those are places with governors/local leaders who are not taking this seriously/testing nearly as much as Cuomo... What's likely to happen in those places? Will we not end up detecting those cases early and instead just see a surge of critically ill patients show up to the healthcare system ? Does POTUS' influence not affect how seriously their leaders/they themselves are preparing for this?

 

As the images show, not the healthiest underlying population and less healthcare access. Additionally, if/when these places ramp up in cases, a lot of resources (PPE, ventilators, etc) may already have been diverted to NYC/northeast...Something to chew on.

 

 

It certainly remains to be seen but maybe NYC and surrounding areas are the exception and not the rule of what to expect.  Cuomo can certainly be commended for his response but his forecast of needed beds/ICU beds seems to be vastly over estimated. Peak cases expected in 7ish days. If expectations for the most dense city in the US was overestimated, why not for the rest of the country?

[cubsfan]

I'll just assume you missed it, since I know you are smarter than that.

 

Well, I won't turn down a compliment :D

 

But I will reiterate that Italy vs USA are two different cases. Adjusted for age the results are not as dissimilar and Italy did not have an extra 2-3 weeks of time to prepare. In other words, if we threw Trump as PM of Italy a few months ago, I'd wager their situation would be even worse.

 

 

Come on man - throw me a bone already. With a million "if"s, you could put Paris in a bottle - as my French wife would say..

 

You are smarter than me, I'll grant you that one..

[Dalal.Holdings]

So China knew about this in December and covered it up to prevent collapsing their New Year celebration and economic activity...

 

Italy chose political correctness over the health of their citizens...

 

Turdeau was so oblivious his wife got it...

 

And our president, despite dealing with a bogus impeachment circus still managed to take some actions prior to some of the "good" countries, and people are still bitching and moaning?

 

For the 100th time, I think anyone blaming or giving credit to Trump is off their rocker and pushing a narrative that really isn't necessary or productive at the moment. But by all means, keep the America bashing coming.

 

 

I think that's a really great summary. All the bitchers and moaners ought to try a wonderful place like China, Italy, Spain or Iran

should they contact CV.  The government responses have been far superior to the USA.

 

Yes, China "knew" in December because black swans are really easy to acknowledge and take seriously initially--kind of like how some people on CoBF insisted on not taking this seriously all the way back to 1 mo ago when we were seeing it clearly ravage other countries. China was country zero--their response was out of proportion to what most other places would have done--an overreaction which worked.

 

Sad fact is U.S. was among last places hit and also among the least prepared. But excusable to the 5th ave Trump supporters...

[LC]

The numbers are what they are but ultimately, not to be callous, but older folks with conditions dying isn't shut down the world worthy unless we all live in some moral utopia which we clearly do not. Theres clearly been a lot of lying going on, by everyone.

 

Yea but no different than any other day of the week. This is a shitstorm of conflicting everything that we live in and COVID is just another chapter, I suppose. Maybe the best move was to quarantine the 55+ population and let the rest of the wold function as normally. WHO knows?

 

A most sinister brainstorm led me to some Hollywood like plot where China deliberately unleashed this on the world in order to grab power. Thats Spielberg story shit though, I hope.

Truly the darkest timeline :D But we'll have to see I suppose. Not sure what power they are gaining from this - in fact we may see countries reduce their reliance on China as a result. But now we're all just talking out of our ass.

 

Question going forward is what is the best way to (1) get a handle on the virus and then (2)  reopen society.

[Gregmal]

So China knew about this in December and covered it up to prevent collapsing their New Year celebration and economic activity...

 

Italy chose political correctness over the health of their citizens...

 

Turdeau was so oblivious his wife got it...

 

And our president, despite dealing with a bogus impeachment circus still managed to take some actions prior to some of the "good" countries, and people are still bitching and moaning?

 

For the 100th time, I think anyone blaming or giving credit to Trump is off their rocker and pushing a narrative that really isn't necessary or productive at the moment. But by all means, keep the America bashing coming.

 

I'd also point out how highly offensive the "My Ni**a" photo from Training Day is.

 

I'm going to troll here now because why not. Still got coffee in the mug.

 

So, you're saying that the USA is just one of the bunch? No exceptionalism, just a mediocre country like all those countries? That the days of glory are over? That we shouldn't expect much of it and just surrender to South Korea? Is that what you're saying?

 

I think the credit we assign to the success and failures of our leaders is astonishingly off base. USA has the best businesses and talent(in aggregate) in the world. Combine that with, on the whole, the best living conditions and human rights policies anywhere. But our politicians are entirely inefficient and basically just fake suits who game the system to enrich themselves. As we are seeing here, even in dire straits, these fuckers are still playing politics and trying to stuff self serving crap into aid bills and playing chess. Its sickening. Trump IMO is an ignorant, but well intentioned narcissist who wants nothing else but to go down as the greatest president in US history. He's massively flawed but ultimately if we had a solution or a cure available Id wager every penny to my name he gets it because being the hero would be the ultimate achievement for him. But on a more realistic and granular level, I dont see him as really having any impact outside of maybe the cheerleader or the overbearing coach yelling at the point guard to "shoot" even though he might not fully comprehend the situation.

[LC]

I'll just assume you missed it, since I know you are smarter than that.

 

Well, I won't turn down a compliment :D

 

But I will reiterate that Italy vs USA are two different cases. Adjusted for age the results are not as dissimilar and Italy did not have an extra 2-3 weeks of time to prepare. In other words, if we threw Trump as PM of Italy a few months ago, I'd wager their situation would be even worse.

 

 

Come on man - throw me a bone already. With a million "if"s, you could put Paris in a bottle - as my French wife would say..

 

You are smarter than me, I'll grant you that one..

 

Not smart enough to marry French. These Italian women are crazy ;D ;D

[Gregmal]

The numbers are what they are but ultimately, not to be callous, but older folks with conditions dying isn't shut down the world worthy unless we all live in some moral utopia which we clearly do not. Theres clearly been a lot of lying going on, by everyone.

 

Yea but no different than any other day of the week. This is a shitstorm of conflicting everything that we live in and COVID is just another chapter, I suppose. Maybe the best move was to quarantine the 55+ population and let the rest of the wold function as normally. WHO knows?

 

A most sinister brainstorm led me to some Hollywood like plot where China deliberately unleashed this on the world in order to grab power. Thats Spielberg story shit though, I hope.

Truly the darkest timeline :D But we'll have to see I suppose. Not sure what power they are gaining from this - in fact we may see countries reduce their reliance on China as a result. But now we're all just talking out of our ass.

 

Question going forward is what is the best way to (1) get a handle on the virus and then (2)  reopen society.

 

Crazy, crazy shit? China waits til peak infection(remember, this was engineered in a lab in Wuhan as a biological weapon and the problems in China were just a cover) and then launches military attacks on their weakened opponents...

 

 

In regards to your real question, I think Mr. Blankfein actually had some decent ideas. Keep it locked down for a little while longer and then start releasing the lower risk part of the population back into the world.

[cubsfan]

I'll just assume you missed it, since I know you are smarter than that.

 

Well, I won't turn down a compliment :D

 

But I will reiterate that Italy vs USA are two different cases. Adjusted for age the results are not as dissimilar and Italy did not have an extra 2-3 weeks of time to prepare. In other words, if we threw Trump as PM of Italy a few months ago, I'd wager their situation would be even worse.

 

 

Come on man - throw me a bone already. With a million "if"s, you could put Paris in a bottle - as my French wife would say..

 

You are smarter than me, I'll grant you that one..

 

Not smart enough to marry French. These Italian women are crazy ;D ;D

 

Touche - on that, I'm going to have a beer. And nothing personal against Italian women!

[orthopa]

Cuomo said we may need 37,000 ICU beds on March 17th. Peak should be in NYC in about a week. Today there are 13383 hospitalized and 3396 in ICU beds, in the most dense city in the US.  If the whole goal for this was to bend the curve, to not overload the healthcare system, then maybe needs throughout the country are currently overestimated and this is over sooner then later.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielshapiro/2020/03/17/cuomo-says-new-york-needs-as-many-as-37000-icu-beds-it-only-has-3000/#51a330c1739f

 

Good news, snap your fingers and 255 less deaths expected in Washington in 24 hrs!

 

 

 

[KCLarkin]

Except that you will never give him credit for saving thousands of American lives because you hate him so much.

Trump had the balls to do it - and was roundly criticized.

 

He was roundly criticized because it didn't work. It didn't save thousands of American lives. It cost many thousands of lives because it added to His complacency.

 

I know you live in a fact-free zone, but here is some context. Ontario borders New York state. Our less-than-stellar public health department has done an okay job tracking travel-related cases. Here are the top 10 travel related sources in Ontario:

United States, 184

United Kingdom, 64

Cruise, 49

Germany, 27

Spain, 26

Mexico, 23

Austria, 19

Iran, 17

France, 15

Philippines,15

 

The China ban is just the pablum Fox feeds the cabbage-heads to keep them happy. Ontario only identified 4 cases related to travel to China (tied for 23rd with Costa Rica). But I guess if you call it the China Virus, you don't need to understand how pandemics work.

[samwise]

I'll go first.  I'm in favor of this:

 

"Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has authorized his country’s internal security agency to track citizens using a secret trove of cellphone data developed for counterterrorism. By tracing people’s movements, the government can punish those who defy isolation orders with up to six months in prison."

 

Neat idea. It could be improved.

 

Doesn’t google know where everyone is and has been? They can even tell me how busy a restaurant or road is right now! Let them contact trace every person who tests positive and send a message to everyone they were within 6 feet of in the last 3 weeks “ you were in contact with a Coronavirus case, please come to the nearest test centre at once. We know who you are and where you are. If you don’t report in 1 hour, the police will come get you under the SAVE act!”

 

SAVE : Saving Americans from Virus Epidemics

 

Yes can’t be done politically, but technology is already here. You would still need to trace the old fashioned way those people google can’t find. Then maybe there is a better chance to keep a lid on infections after case numbers have been reduced.

 

So instead of the lives versus GDP, we can now have the liberty/privacy versus lives versus GDP debate.

I know New Hampshire’s position on this “Live Free or Die”. But what about everyone else?

 

[in accordance with thread protocol and 300 pages of tradition, throw in gratuitous insults aimed at anyone who disagrees here]

 

[RichardGibbons]

Wrong Brother LC - look it up - I know you are good at math: Italy's CV death rate is now 10X HIGHER per capita than the USA.

 

So, yea - the Italian PM did a fantastic job IF YOU DON'T MIND DYING.

 

You really, really want to tell me you would rather contract corona virus in Italy than the USA? Seriously? Italy is a disaster.

 

The USA rate is SLIGHTLY higher than Germany, which everyone is raving about.

 

Twist the narrative all you want - the numbers are the numbers.

 

I'll just assume you missed it, since I know you are smarter than that.

 

OK, cool!  All those countries are doing better than the USA, but I understand that you're not actually concerned about analysing which countries did better than the USA.

 

So instead, I'll take this as your commitment that the only metric that matters is per-capita COVID-19 death rate.  Let's revisit this thread in a month or two, and see how many countries USA did better than.

 

I imagine that delights you, as you think Trump has done a superior job and the outcome from here will be nothing but rainbows and unicorns, and the privatized American healthcare system is superior to all others!  It's a no-brainer that USA will do better than basically everyone else, right?

 

Now remember, no shifting the goalposts!

[Investor20]

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222

Coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measures

John P.A. Ioannidis

Departments of Medicine, of

Epidemiology and Population Health, of

Biomedical Data Science, and of

Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

 

Exaggerated case fatality rate (CFR):

 

.................CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population; probably higher than seasonal flu (CFR=0.1%), but not much so. Observed crude CFR in South Korea and in Germany8, the countries with most extensive testing, is 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Even in these countries, many cases probably remain undiagnosed. Therefore, CFR may be even lower.

 

Exaggerated exponential community spread:

 

At face value, the epidemic curve of new cases outside China since late February is compatible with exponential community spread. However, reading this curve is very difficult. Part of the growth of documented cases could reflect rapid increases in numbers of coronavirus tests performed. The number of tests done depends on how many test-kits are available and how many patients seek testing. Even if bottlenecks in test availability are eventually removed, the epidemic curve may still reflect primarily population sensitization and willingness for testing rather than true epidemic growth. China data are more compatible with close contact rather than wide community spread being the main mode of transmission. 

[cubsfan]

Wrong Brother LC - look it up - I know you are good at math: Italy's CV death rate is now 10X HIGHER per capita than the USA.

 

So, yea - the Italian PM did a fantastic job IF YOU DON'T MIND DYING.

 

You really, really want to tell me you would rather contract corona virus in Italy than the USA? Seriously? Italy is a disaster.

 

The USA rate is SLIGHTLY higher than Germany, which everyone is raving about.

 

Twist the narrative all you want - the numbers are the numbers.

 

I'll just assume you missed it, since I know you are smarter than that.

 

OK, cool!  All those countries are doing better than the USA, but I understand that you're not actually concerned about analysing which countries did better than the USA.

 

So instead, I'll take this as your commitment that the only metric that matters is per-capita COVID-19 death rate.  Let's revisit this thread in a month or two, and see how many countries USA did better than.

 

I imagine that delights you, as you think Trump has done a superior job and the outcome from here will be nothing but rainbows and unicorns, and the privatized American healthcare system is superior to all others!  It's a no-brainer that USA will do better than basically everyone else, right?

 

Now remember, no shifting the goalposts!

 

Uh, yeah that sounds just fine - let's see how it all ends up, and I hope it ends soon.

 

Now I gave you the per capita death rate - as a counter to your list of leaders/countries that had done such a superior job to the USA and administration. 

At least I tried to use SOMETHING factual instead of just opinion. So if YOU don't like the metric - dismiss it - and come up with your own.

I don't really care - just give me SOMETHING somewhat concrete as the basis for your statement. I won't force you to use mine.

 

Other than this nonsense - Trump's done such a horrible job, travel bans don't save lives, he just got lucky etc, etc

 

[StubbleJumper]

Except that you will never give him credit for saving thousands of American lives because you hate him so much.

Trump had the balls to do it - and was roundly criticized.

 

He was roundly criticized because it didn't work. It didn't save thousands of American lives. It cost many thousands of lives because it added to His complacency.

 

I know you live in a fact-free zone, but here is some context. Ontario borders New York state. Our less-than-stellar public health department has done an okay job tracking travel-related cases. Here are the top 10 travel related sources in Ontario:

United States, 184

United Kingdom, 64

Cruise, 49

Germany, 27

Spain, 26

Mexico, 23

Austria, 19

Iran, 17

France, 15

Philippines,15

 

The China ban is just the pablum Fox feeds the cabbage-heads to keep them happy. Ontario only identified 4 cases related to travel to China (tied for 23rd with Costa Rica). But I guess if you call it the China Virus, you don't need to understand how pandemics work.

 

 

Are you surprised that Ontario has contracted more cases of Covid from its immediate neighbour than from countries half-way around the world?  Some how that doesn't strike me as shocking...

 

 

SJ

[orthopa]

Since we have some Canadian neighbors on the board why isnt Toronto a complete shit show? Toronto has a ton of international flights to China/Europe and a pretty dense make up right?

 

International travel stopped March 16th

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/trudeau-travel-restrictions-ban-coronavirus-covid19-canada

 

And travel to US stopped March 18th.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2020/03/18/update-canada-restricts-travel-to-the-us-in-new-coronavirus-travel-ban/#4859d99f449c

 

Or does Toronto fall in the "wait 2 more weeks" category?  With the international flights and the US loaded with it you would expect a mess up there now right?

[KCLarkin]

Are you surprised that Ontario has contracted more cases of Covid from its immediate neighbour than from countries half-way around the world?  Some how that doesn't strike me as shocking...

 

It's not shocking now (since the US is now the epicentre). But it was shocking in early March when there were fewer than 1000 reported cases in the U.S. and we were importing cases from states with no known cases.