Coronavirus

[LC]

I am asking for the evidence that shows that new mask-wearers won't touch their face, not for evidence that masks work to prevent aerosol-based transmission.

 

Surgical masks are more effective at viral transmission compared to N95 makes, despite being not as effective against 1-3 micron particles. Why is that? Because they cover a larger portion of your face.

[Dalal.Holdings]

@tobi started wearing a mask

 

 

but he is having some issues

 

"Practical question though: How do you make your glasses not fog up?"

 

Billionaires.... they are just like the rest of us. :)

 

It's ill-advised, perhaps even Irresponsible for non-experts to promote wearing of masks during a pandemic to a population unaccustomed to wearing masks. New mask wearers will fiddle with the masks from discomfort, thereby increasing their risk of transmission by transfer from their hands.

 

Here are two McGill University medical experts weighing in with that message:

 

No it isn't. Regular masks (not N95) prevent asymptomatic people from infecting others. They're quite effective elsewhere and should be worn by all. They shouldn't replace other measures, and people should be educated about them (as they have been in asia), rather than assume they're too dumb and shouldn't wear them. See:

 

https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/covid-19-why-we-should-all-wear-masks-there-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71

 

https://medium.com/@thejanellemj/please-join-me-in-wearing-a-mask-71e0e3f4fe4a

 

Otherwise, it's like saying that people shouldn't wash their hands because they might do it badly and get a false sense of protection from it, or whatever...

 

It's not about people being dumb. It's not even necessarily about education. It's instinct. When you first grow a beard, it will be itchy, and you WILL scratch it. But you get used to it over time.

 

If you want to get a population used to wearing masks, you want them to get used to it OUTSIDE of a pandemic, because INSIDE of a pandemic, face-touching is a major cause of transmission.

 

You have exhibit A above. Tobi wears a mask, and his glasses fog up. What does he do next?

 

I am asking for the evidence that shows that new mask-wearers won't touch their face, not for evidence that masks work to prevent aerosol-based transmission.

 

I estimate that,

p(catching the virus from breathing it in from respiratory droplets) >>> p(catching the virus from touching your face after touching object with virus because mask is uncomfortable)

 

Hence, there is a steep asymmetry: the benefit of wearing a mask >>> the cost/risk of wearing a mask

 

You can't wait for the world to generate "evidence" to help you deciding how to act in a highly evolving, uncertain situation. You have to make quick estimates and act accordingly, with precaution as the #1 goal.

 

Edit: And the above does not even consider the benefits of an infected individual of wearing a mask (for everyone else around them).

 

Here is some "evidence", if that's what you are looking for:

[gary17]

hard to project the probabilities

but i think the benefit of a mask preventing transmission is (a) preventing the droplet / aerosol leaving in the initial cough or sneeze and (b) the subsequent droplets reaching hard surfaces such as elevator buttons, door knobs, etc. 

[Liberty]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758v1.full.pdf

 

"Efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19: results of a randomized clinical trial"

 

Also, on Germany: https://apnews.com/03d48eb93fa6cb66262de6f7d57f27df

[KCLarkin]

Liberty, that doesn’t read like a proper study.

[Guest cherzeca]

a glimmer:  https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/doctor-in-netflix-doc-says-he-discovered-potential-coronavirus-cure/

[gary17]

we will learn if Trump's prescription works the end of the week i think

if it does that will likely have an impact on the model and the physical distancing measures.

 

for now I just pay attention to see if BC announces any  more fatalities in the Lynn Valley Care centre - it's one of the sites doing the trial.

 

[Liberty]

Liberty, that doesn’t read like a proper study.

 

It's too early to have proper studies.

[RichardGibbons]

Do you have a timeline that shows what Trudeau did was mostly right? I still remember him encouraging people going to eat at Chinese restaurants (on FB) in Late Feb / early March. It feels like we’ve been a many steps behind the US. Even today, data collection is spotty and testing is slow with a big backlog..

 

Nope, I don't have a timeline, but if you want to spend a couple hours putting one together, I'd love to see it. I vaguely recall the restaurant thing.  It was a long time ago, probably associated with Chinese New Year on Feb 2, not late Feb/early March.

 

The primary things Canada's done very well is data collection, testing, and tracking cases--for weeks at the beginning of the outbreak, BC was ahead of USA, and as of March 16, Canada had done 50% more testing than USA.  Second, Canada did the lockdowns at roughly the right time. The combination of these two things has had the result that nowhere in Canada is completely overloaded now, with per-capita cases way lower than the USA, and growth rates lower, too.  Closing the border against the primary country where COVID-19 is skyrocketing (USA) was also well-done, both in terms of timing and diplomacy. 

 

In terms of actions the countries will take over the next few months, I'd expect that USA will ramp up faster/better than Canada, both because USA will be better at ramping up supply chains, and because USA will need it more.

[Liberty]

FUN FACT:  Durin’ the time Trump was “preoccupied with impeachment and couldn’t focus on the pandemic” he held 9 MAGA rallies and played six rounds of golf.

[Liberty]

https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19/

[meiroy]

 

"When Trump says 100K deaths will prove he did a great job, it's part of a broader strategy that WH has openly deployed.

 

The new Big Lie is: No one could have seen coronavirus coming, and Trump's only role has been in limiting what could have been worse"

 

"The virus was biblical. There could have been over two million dead [and here the experts and their data will be deployed]. But Donald Trump reduced that horrific number by 90%.”

 

[vinod1]

I was watching an interview sometime in 2001/2002 with a Taliban terrorist. He said something like "doctors cure people, police arrest people, we are terrorists and we kill people, why do you hate us?"

 

How can you argue with someone like that? I feel the same way with Trump supporters.

 

If 100K were killed, it is because Trump must have done a really good job, if 1 million or killed it must be because Trump must have done a really fantastic job.

 

So my rule is: Never ever argue with a Trump supporter.

 

Vinod

[Liberty]

Michael Lewis piece:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-01/tracking-coronavirus-by-smell-test-is-risk-manager-s-project-now

 

Also, compulsory masks in Austria: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/austria-coronavirus-facemasks-mandatory-update-cases-a9438616.html

[minten]

Michael Lewis piece:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-01/tracking-coronavirus-by-smell-test-is-risk-manager-s-project-now

 

The sniffing initiative seems to have been a good idea like a month ago (but also then very non-scientific and arbitrary). By the time this gets any traction, we will have widespread serological tests anyway.

 

[Liberty]

 

JUST IN: NYC Health Dept releases chart of coronavirus cases by zip code. Looks like those who have the farthest commutes by train also have highest instances.

 

Also:

 

South Korea and the United States had their first positive COVID-19 cases on the same day - January 20th. To date:

 

South Korea - 9,762 cases, 162 deaths

United States - 188,000 cases, more than 4,000 deaths

 

The US is 6 times larger, by population, than South Korea. If you multiply SK's numbers by 6, the US still has 3 times more cases and approximately four times more deaths.

 

[mcliu]

Do you have a timeline that shows what Trudeau did was mostly right? I still remember him encouraging people going to eat at Chinese restaurants (on FB) in Late Feb / early March. It feels like we’ve been a many steps behind the US. Even today, data collection is spotty and testing is slow with a big backlog..

 

Nope, I don't have a timeline, but if you want to spend a couple hours putting one together, I'd love to see it. I vaguely recall the restaurant thing.  It was a long time ago, probably associated with Chinese New Year on Feb 2, not late Feb/early March.

 

The primary things Canada's done very well is data collection, testing, and tracking cases--for weeks at the beginning of the outbreak, BC was ahead of USA, and as of March 16, Canada had done 50% more testing than USA.  Second, Canada did the lockdowns at roughly the right time. The combination of these two things has had the result that nowhere in Canada is completely overloaded now, with per-capita cases way lower than the USA, and growth rates lower, too.  Closing the border against the primary country where COVID-19 is skyrocketing (USA) was also well-done, both in terms of timing and diplomacy. 

 

In terms of actions the countries will take over the next few months, I'd expect that USA will ramp up faster/better than Canada, both because USA will be better at ramping up supply chains, and because USA will need it more.

 

Thanks RichardGibbons. I really hope you're right and we're not just later on the curve.

I think the Chinese community here were really ahead of this; even in late January/early Feb, many people were starting to self-isolate after visiting China and wearing face masks.

 

Yes, Trudeau visited Chinese restaurant on Feb 1 for Chinese New Year.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/coronavirus-canada-trudeau-february-1-1.5448834

 

But he also visited on Mar 5, as per his FB. Also, no social distancing in those photos.

https://www.facebook.com/JustinPJTrudeau/posts/in-scarborough-and-across-the-country-chinese-canadians-have-helped-make-our-com/10158655284655649/

 

Here is the Edmonton Journal timeline, probably have to take a grain of salt since they're pretty anti-JT/Liberals out West:

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/national/the-road-to-canadas-covid-19-outbreak-timeline-of-federal-government-failure-at-border-to-slow-the-virus/

 

In terms of cases, as per Financial Times, Canada is tracking UK with 1 week lag. Under US, but with significantly less testing:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126/photo/1

 

In terms of death, Canada is tracking US, with 2 weeks lag, but maybe it'll flatten because we've had 2 weeks of social-distancing:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126/photo/1

 

Here's what worries me:

COVID-19 cases in Ontario ICUs far higher than official figures

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1717764163674

 

"With no factory in Canada, domestic production of N95 masks is still months away"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/canada-searching-masks-international-1.5517276

[Liberty]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/covid-face-mask-shortage.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

 

"How South Korea Solved Its Face Mask Shortage"

 

Also: "Israel PM asks citizens to wear face-masks while in public as a precaution against the coronavirus"

 

 

Also, good read from a few days ago (sorry if already posted elsewhere):

 

https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/608719/

 

report card that grades every country on its pandemic preparedness, the United States has a score of 83.5—the world’s highest. Rich, strong, developed, America is supposed to be the readiest of nations. That illusion has been shattered. [...]

 

the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed and distributed a faulty test in February. Independent labs created alternatives, but were mired in bureaucracy from the FDA. In a crucial month when the American caseload shot into the tens of thousands, only hundreds of people were tested. That a biomedical powerhouse like the U.S. should so thoroughly fail to create a very simple diagnostic test was, quite literally, unimaginable. “I’m not aware of any simulations that I or others have run where we [considered] a failure of testing,” says Alexandra Phelan of Georgetown University, who works on legal and policy issues related to infectious diseases.

 

The testing fiasco was the original sin of America’s pandemic failure, the single flaw that undermined every other countermeasure. If the country could have accurately tracked the spread of the virus, hospitals could have executed their pandemic plans, girding themselves by allocating treatment rooms, ordering extra supplies, tagging in personnel, or assigning specific facilities to deal with COVID-19 cases. None of that happened. Instead, a health-care system that already runs close to full capacity, and that was already challenged by a severe flu season, was suddenly faced with a virus that had been left to spread, untracked, through communities around the country. Overstretched hospitals became overwhelmed. Basic protective equipment, such as masks, gowns, and gloves, began to run out. Beds will soon follow, as will the ventilators that provide oxygen to patients whose lungs are besieged by the virus.

 

With little room to surge during a crisis, America’s health-care system operates on the assumption that unaffected states can help beleaguered ones in an emergency. That ethic works for localized disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires, but not for a pandemic that is now in all 50 states. [...]

 

Partly, that’s because the White House is a ghost town of scientific expertise. A pandemic-preparedness office that was part of the National Security Council was dissolved in 2018. On January 28, Luciana Borio, who was part of that team, urged the government to “act now to prevent an American epidemic,” and specifically to work with the private sector to develop fast, easy diagnostic tests. But with the office shuttered, those warnings were published in The Wall Street Journal, rather than spoken into the president’s ear. Instead of springing into action, America sat idle.

 

Rudderless, blindsided, lethargic, and uncoordinated, America has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis to a substantially worse degree than what every health expert I’ve spoken with had feared. “Much worse,” said Ron Klain, who coordinated the U.S. response to the West African Ebola outbreak in 2014. “Beyond any expectations we had,” said Lauren Sauer, who works on disaster preparedness at Johns Hopkins Medicine. “As an American, I’m horrified,” said Seth Berkley, who heads Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. “The U.S. may end up with the worst outbreak in the industrialized world.” [...]

 

To an extent, the near-term future is set because COVID-19 is a slow and long illness. People who were infected several days ago will only start showing symptoms now, even if they isolated themselves in the meantime.

[gary17]

‪China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

[Liberty]

FUN FACT:  Durin’ the time Trump was “preoccupied with impeachment and couldn’t focus on the pandemic” he held 9 MAGA rallies and played six rounds of golf.

 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-golf-rallies-coronavirus/

 

Also, let's not forget the real people on the frontline of this, they're not just numbers or statistics:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-italy-photos-doctors-and-nurses/608671/

 

 

[treasurehunt]

The sniffing initiative seems to have been a good idea like a month ago (but also then very non-scientific and arbitrary). By the time this gets any traction, we will have widespread serological tests anyway.

 

We may have widespread serological tests in the developed countries soon, but I doubt they will be available worldwide. So this initiative might still be very useful for less developed countries.

[RichardGibbons]

In terms of cases, as per Financial Times, Canada is tracking UK with 1 week lag. Under US, but with significantly less testing:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126/photo/1

 

In terms of death, Canada is tracking US, with 2 weeks lag, but maybe it'll flatten because we've had 2 weeks of social-distancing:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126/photo/1

 

Here's what worries me:

COVID-19 cases in Ontario ICUs far higher than official figures

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1717764163674

 

"With no factory in Canada, domestic production of N95 masks is still months away"

https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/canada-searching-masks-international-1.5517276

 

The two-week and one-week lag analyses are deceptive because of 1) the staring points and 2) the logarithmic Y-axis.  For instance, you wouldn't say that UK and Canada were on the same line, but one week offset, if you looked at this graph instead:

 

 

Canada was better at responding to COVID-19 initially.  So on these graphs that start at, say 100 on the Y-axis, that means that the X=0 point for some countries--including Canada--was pushed weeks out in time.  It looks like we got the disease way later, when actually what happened was we got the disease at the same time, but measures we took slowed things down so much that it now looks like we're weeks better than others. 

 

What's more, the exponential growth on a logarithmic axis minimizes the difference between countries, making it seem like Canada has a better slope, but only a bit better slope.  But over time, that means a massive difference.  (e.g. What's $1 compounded at 15% per year for 50 years verses $1 compounded at 25% per year for 50 years?)

 

I agree with you that Canada's curve is likely to flatten because of social distancing, and the fact that the growth was flatter up to now will likely mean way fewer (per capita) deaths.

 

Effectively, I think the net result will be flatter curves initially (this is where our "test and track people" stuff really helped), allowing us to get to the social distancing up at the right time to flatten curve before overloading our hospitals too badly (now that "test and track" becomes less feasible because of too many cases).

 

I also agree with you that it's the untested people that is really worrisome. On Mar 30, we had done about 222K tests, while today USA has done about 1065K tests (still well behind Canada per capita.)  But I think this (and the PPE, as you mentioned) is where the supply chain stuff will really start to bite.  I feel like the game would be completely different if there were a 5 minute drive-through covid-19 test, and I think USA will get these way before Canada.

 

I guess the other thing that both countries did wrong was not tell everyone to wear masks. If they did that, I imagine both our curves would be way lower. But I think the authorities in both countries didn't encourage that because the supply of masks was too limited.

[meiroy]

https://www.amcham-shanghai.org/en/article/ppe-procurement-guide-and-contact-list

 

The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai has a PPE Procurement Guide and Contact List including a list of law firms that will review contracts pro bono basis. 

 

There is plenty of supply in China right now.

 

 

 

 

 

[wescobrk]

How many think we will "reopen" US economy by mid May?

I'm not sure if there are voting buttons. I have puts for protection but I also have a some call leaps. I'm starting to think I should have more puts now.

 

NY is the worst and the governor thinks they will peak by end of this month. The peak doubling time has slowed the past couple of days.

 

Mid May doesn't sound ridiculous, does it?

 

I'm not saying the numbers won't come back by fall but there could be a massive rally this summer before it crashes again.

[Spekulatius]

How many think we will "reopen" US economy by mid May?

I'm not sure if there are voting buttons. I have puts for protection but I also have a some call leaps. I'm starting to think I should have more puts now.

 

NY is the worst and the governor thinks they will peak by end of this month. The peak doubling time has slowed the past couple of days.

 

Mid May doesn't sound ridiculous, does it?

 

I'm not saying the numbers won't come back by fall but there could be a massive rally this summer before it crashes again.

 

NY may be the worst now, but I am not sure it remains that way. I think Florida maybe similar and perhaps some states like Lousiana (New Orleans) and Texas who stayed too long with the “it‘s just a flu” mantra will pay the piper too. This will roll through all states without fail.