Coronavirus

[Liberty]

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.

 

It's not personal, I'm anti-stupidity and anti-corruption generally.

 

Can you stop bringing the thread off-topic now please?

[Guest]

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.

 

It's not personal, I'm anti-stupidity and anti-corruption generally.

 

Well...I can't argue with you on that and Trump.  :P

[Liberty]

I read it as Trump putting someone on virus who he doesnt mind "taking the fall" for it, because we don't seem particularly well prepared.

 

Yeah, he's clearly the fall guy. Trump said things were fine, so if things turn out not too bad, he can say he was right. If they get bad, he can blame Pence. It's 100% consistent with his M.O. Anything goes well, it's him, anything goes bad, it's someone else around him that he now "barely knows" and that "begged him for the job"...

[rb]

At least pence seems to have put in charge someone competent. So fingers crossed.

[Liberty]

At least pence seems to have put in charge someone competent. So fingers crossed.

 

Yeah, the question is more, will they be allowed to do their jobs, or will they be vetoed for political reasons. It's not a good sign when they tell scientists that they can't say anything without being cleared by the White House and when Trump publicly contradicts the CDC and WHO...

[Kaegi2011]

 

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.

 

 

Do you feel Pence is right person for the job?  Isn't that the discussion (rather than a partisan one)?

[Gregmal]

Pence is a figurehead. Thats all.

[Guest]

 

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.

 

 

Do you feel Pence is right person for the job?  Isn't that the discussion (rather than a partisan one)?

 

I figure he probably knows as much as just about anyone else does right now. He's also a shrewd politician that knows what to say...which you might not have when a real medical expert is at the helm.

[Kaegi2011]

 

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.

 

 

Do you feel Pence is right person for the job?  Isn't that the discussion (rather than a partisan one)?

 

I figure he probably knows as much as just about anyone else does right now. He's also a shrewd politician that knows what to say...which you might not have when a real medical expert is at the helm.

 

So... you want someone to deliberately misinform the public?  And do you really think he knows as much as anyone else (e.g., someone who has spent their entire life studying diseases)? 

[Guest]

 

I didn't vote nor do i like Trump. But, you have a lot of anti-Trump posts.

 

 

Do you feel Pence is right person for the job?  Isn't that the discussion (rather than a partisan one)?

 

I figure he probably knows as much as just about anyone else does right now. He's also a shrewd politician that knows what to say...which you might not have when a real medical expert is at the helm.

 

So... you want someone to deliberately misinform the public?  And do you really think he knows as much as anyone else (e.g., someone who has spent their entire life studying diseases)?

 

It depends what you mean by "right" person for the job. Typically the job of a politician is to encourage public safety. The public tends to go a bit crazy. I don't think he should mislead people but he shouldn't promote panic either - which is a far higher outcome who is less versed in public speaking.

 

I'm assuming some of the best doctors and researchers are telling him about it. The same as an expert.

 

 

[Liberty]

Pence is a figurehead. Thats all.

 

So he can't make decisions based on what people below him tell him? And that's good?

 

Or he can make decisions...? So you think he's the right person to make those decisions?

 

Seems like either way, he's the wrong person for the job.

[Castanza]

Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

 

 

[Guest]

Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

 

Trump doesn't need Pence for that. He has the best knowledge of science.

[Castanza]

Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

 

Trump doesn't need Pence for that. He has the best knowledge of science.

 

Trump University > MIT  ;D

[Liberty]

Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

 

The CEO of a company isn't in the R&D lab or on the factory floor or doing sales call or doing building maintenance (most of the time) either, but do you think it doesn't matter who the one making the decisions, picking the team and allocating resources is?

[Castanza]

Why is everyone on here acting like Pence and Trump are in the lab trying to synthesize the vaccine on their own  ;D

 

The CEO of a company isn't in the R&D lab or on the factory floor or doing sales call or doing building maintenance (most of the time) either, but do you think it doesn't matter who the one making the decisions, picking the team and allocating resources is?

 

Behind the scenes

Expert: "We have been seeing success with this testing. Statistics show that this is the best course of action and we need resources."

Trump: "Name your price."

 

Press Conference

Trump: "I with my great intellect have decided to allocate this specific amount of funds to this expert for the study I found most compelling. I believe they are the best for the job. We have the best here in America. The vaccine is going to be hugeee."

 

Also Trump is about the biggest germaphobe the world has ever seen. I'm surprised he isn't walking around like bubble boy yet.  :P

[Sharad]

Back to the market action: the market has basically completed the circle back to the S&P levels in September when Powell indicated asset purchases would continue until the spring, which basically opened the rush into equities. This appeared to be a classic blow-off top, and so we were bound to give that back. We just gave it back in bigger chunks as a result of novel coronavirus. So, now that we gave back what was never really ours, we can address how the market gets impacted by coronavirus. Given earnings expectations weren't exactly stellar before, does China's upcoming stimulus drive us back up? One thing to pay attention to: Chinese activity is now rising day over day...it's a small green shoot for them, but might take a little while to be recognized here. And the virus is likely already spreading in North America: Canada and US simply aren't testing as many people as other areas of the world.

 

Does Powell indicate that asset purchases continue after his Q2 end date? Would that even matter? Those are the questions I currently ponder, while I expect China to announce some sort of first round of massive stimulus in the coming weeks.

[gary17]

Trump's early border control of banning flights from China has helped buying them time, i think credit for him on that.

The US has about 15 cases if you ignore the repatriated citizens; for a country that's 10x the population they have just 2 cases more than Canada.

 

but now that the virus is not in China anymore, it'll be interesting to see if Canada and US can continue to keep the virus ratio low.

 

Interesting during SARS (and I know we are not supposed to compare to SARS) - but Japan had 0 cases!

[SnarkyPuppy]

Trump's early border control of banning flights from China has helped buying them time, i think credit for him on that.

The US has about 15 cases if you ignore the repatriated citizens; for a country that's 10x the population they have just 2 cases more than Canada.

 

but now that the virus is not in China anymore, it'll be interesting to see if Canada and US can continue to keep the virus ratio low.

 

Interesting during SARS (and I know we are not supposed to compare to SARS) - but Japan had 0 cases!

 

Is there a reason you’re ignoring the obvious and key variable of the fact that he United States has been significantly undertesting potential cases? 

 

Why are intellectually sound people continuing to state:

- LoLtHeFlUkilLsmOrEpEoPle (ignoring growth rates and unknown yet wide range of mortality rates)

- US only has 15 reported cases (without mentioning the proportionally less testing - literally only 455 people tested as of yesterday)

 

Definitionally a short term problem for markets and I’m buying today - but in terms of the spread of the virus why are these statements even being made lol

[ERICOPOLY]

Trump's early border control of banning flights from China has helped buying them time, i think credit for him on that.

The US has about 15 cases if you ignore the repatriated citizens; for a country that's 10x the population they have just 2 cases more than Canada.

 

but now that the virus is not in China anymore, it'll be interesting to see if Canada and US can continue to keep the virus ratio low.

 

Interesting during SARS (and I know we are not supposed to compare to SARS) - but Japan had 0 cases!

 

I give credit to Trump for this:

 

Trump dismantling of Obama era disease response leaves US exposed

 

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/trump-dismantling-of-obama-era-disease-response-leaves-us-exposed-79447621625

[BG2008]

Guys,

 

This thread has been incredibly helpful for me.  For those that want to trash talk partisan politics, I can set up a cage and give you guys head gears and gloves.  Go at it.  Let's keep the partisan politics out of this.  How politics and policy affects markets and behavior will be appreciated.  Thanks. 

 

 

[shhughes1116]

Just a couple of observations, some of which you may perceive to be political:

1. The government apparatus that was stood up to deal with epidemics and pandemics was disassembled by Trump.  There were a couple of groups across the government who managed this work, monitored signals, made sure the medical system was prepared with the right information and supplies, ensured state/local/territory/tribal health depts were positioned to coordinate and implement public health response during crises, and brought together the various groups across the government (e.g. CDC, FDA) to identify and speed along vaccines, diagnostic tests, etc.  While the mandate remains for this work, the people and funding to make this work happen are mostly gone. 

2. The case fatality rate amongst the 70+ age group is close to 15%, based on data from China.  You can and should take any data from China with a grain of salt.  I don't buy their overall numbers, but, I'll bet they fudge the numerator and denominator in similar proportions, and so I suspect the CFR %'s across different age groups is reasonably accurate, even though the data is incomplete at this point (i.e. cases still in the hospital that will die, or recover).  This CFR isn't hugely surprising as these folks tend to be susceptible to pneumonia, and suffer from other complications that make this illness deadly.   

3.  Where younger folks are dying, it is either because they are immunocompromised, or because of extreme inflammation (cytokine storm).  When younger people are dying from this inflammation, it (anecdotally) appears to be people that would be in prime position to be re-infected with the virus (i.e. a doctor).  This reminds me a little bit of dengue fever, where the initial infection tends to be bad, and a reinfection with a different strain tends to cause a deadly hemorrhagic fever.  if the two virus operate in a similar manner, then we may see a second phase of illness as folks are re-infected (with higher case fatality rates due to the high-inflammation, and a higher burden on the hospital system as more folks present with conditions that require ventilators and other less-common equipment).

 

I think we are in the early innings of this pandemic.  I suspect we are going to end up with something that is always present, like the flu, but with different mortality and morbidity rates.   

 

Right now, it seems like the sell-off in the stock market is a function of fear of the unknown, coupled with high valuations.  I personally think we are going to see a second phase of the downdraft, as we start to see forward guidance change to account for the economic disruption.  My *fear* is that as the economic conditions deteriorate and earnings drop, we will end up with a liquidity event that will prompt a redux 2008-2009, as over-leveraged companies can't roll over or pay debt. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Liberty]

This is Michael Lewis’ Fifth Risk:

 

 

Trump administration sent U.S. workers to greet returning coronavirus victims without protective gear -- and when HHS whistleblower told federal bosses about it, she was reassigned and threatened with sacking.

[Spekulatius]

The Corona virus outbreak will very likely cause a deep recession in Europe, Asia and quite possibly in NA. Depending on how well it is handled, it could well influence the outcome of the election.

 

I mentioned this in the “what did you sell today thread”, but I made a market timing call and sold a substantial part of my equity holdings during short lived bounce today. I did not do so during the 2018 fall/winter downturn, but the current situation  is different (I think) and at vastly higher equity valuations, I think we are very vulnerable to further correction and possibly a liquidity event.

 

I sincerely hope I am wrong.

[Dalal.Holdings]

The graph you should be looking at: cases outside China. Numbers you can actually trust. Note within China, there are some provinces where the case # has not budged for over a week (Zhejiang). It seems like there may be some obfuscation going on, esp outside Hubei.

 

For those saying not to worry about the "2%" that will be affected, the economic implications of people staying indoors are massive enough, esp in a consumption oriented economy with anemic growth such as ours.

 

Trump the reality TV star is finally being put to the test. As is his MO, he's setting up a fall guy (Pence) because the buck never stops with him, but with the people he hires (they're always "the best"--until they're not: See Tillerson, Flynn, Bolton, Kelly, etc etc).

 

He's terrified of being honest to the American people because it will cause panic (crisis of confidence) and trigger a recession in an election yr as people will cut off travel/shopping/home buying/etc. And of course, God forbid stocks come down bc then he can't use his clever "how is your 401k doing" campaign line. And Powell won't be able to help him with a cutback in consumption that comes from virus induced fears, not only do we have rock bottom interest rates, but lowering them will not get people to go outside.

 

Reality will likely catch up to his obfuscation anyway and he can't cover up a crisis like this one for long...this ain't no reality show or Trump University where it's all about the marketing. After all it is exponential growth in cases (about 20% a day--what happens to $4000 that grows 20% a day?). The truth will overwhelm his massaging of the message in due time with a crisis like this one and it will not be pretty.