Coronavirus

[Guest cherzeca]

"I don't really see how society could go on normally if 1%+ of the population was dying all around them."

 

more than 1% of population is dying around society all of the time.  but of course nowhere near that number from covid. 

 

"The way doctors describe it to me is that this is a sliding scale where deaths under normal health care system resources are over 1%, and as capacity is reached deaths will increase as the number of patients who could have been saved, but cannot due to lack of resources (ventilators, trained staff, etc) climbs significantly."

 

this can only be true in queens and bronx.  I know this is not true in Manhattan.  and certainly not true anywhere else in US.  hospitals generally in US are very quiet with no elective surgeries and no visitors.  plenty of capacity generally in US. ability to focus on covid patients is very high. 

 

[Liberty]

"And what is the real tragedy - the number of unemployed (destroying lives) or the tragic early death of someone due to having CV?"

 

Perhaps its just me but personally I would rather be unemployed than dead.

 

I think most people would also rather have a few difficult months than lose their parents/uncles/friends/coworkers/etc. It's not just the old, but those with other health issues, which includes obesity, diabetes, heart problems, compromised immune system, etc, and a lot of things that affect people of all ages. Some people act like "underlying health condition" means "not a real person who deserved to die anyway" when it's pointed out that a victim had some other illness... I guess people tend to see it all as statistics rather than think about their mom or favorite mentor.

[cubsfan]

By my calculation, PA unemployment is up to 22.6% as of today.  PA is one of the few states that publishes daily unemployment claims data.

 

https://www.uc.pa.gov/COVID-19/Pages/UC-Claim-Statistics.aspx

 

Feb unemployed: 308,900

New Covid unemployment claims: 1,179,326

Total unemployed: 1,488,200

Total PA labor force:  6,558,000

Unemployment rate: 22.6%

 

If other states are proportional, there would be an additional 4+ million unemployment claims for last week when the data is reported on Thursday.  Obviously that's an extrapolation from one state, however claims in certain states (notably TX, FL) have been low the past few weeks due to issues with those states filing systems.  I would guess 4 million +- 1 million is a pretty good guess for last week, and claims are still not slowing.

 

In the last two days, unemployment has risen in PA by 1.6%....in two days.

 

PA added another 0.4% yesterday, bringing the total to over 23% unemployment.

 

Not sure what the unemployment rate was before all this in PA.

 

Let's say the average age of CV death is around 80

total coronavirus death count 240 today

current unemployed    1,500,000  or 23%

 

so for every 1 CV death - there are 6250 unemployed in PA

 

I'd love to hear your "adjustment" to get to the true figure and cost

 

And what is the real tragedy - the number of unemployed (destroying lives) or the tragic early death of someone due to having CV?

 

Unemployment was 4.7% in February (308,900/6,558,000)

 

I don't really see how society could go on normally if 1%+ of the population was dying all around them.  I also think if we "open up", doctors will walk off the job as they won't be able to handle what would happen to the health care system. 

 

The way doctors describe it to me is that this is a sliding scale where deaths under normal health care system resources are over 1%, and as capacity is reached deaths will increase as the number of patients who could have been saved, but cannot due to lack of resources (ventilators, trained staff, etc) climbs significantly.

 

I think basically no matter what we are headed towards a severe recession, and I think re-opening will not change that, but will in fact make things worse as the virus will spread uncontrolled until people are ordered back home or just quit and don't go to work.  I don't really see a world in which people go back to restaurants/bars/theme parks/planes/hotels/cruises at any normal levels in any case, and thus the gains from closing down is increasing the health improvement by better social distancing.  Lots of the layoffs would be happening no matter what the govt did regarding "stay at home".

 

Thanks - I agree with you - I think we are headed toward a severe recession as well. And I agree with your comments on large gatherings for

some period of time. Won't be the same.

 

Question is: Is there a way to "wall off" the immune compromised, the elderly, etc - and get SOME people back to work?

 

If I understand your math - the answer to my question at this point is:  1,200,000 newly unemployed for 240 deaths. 

 

1 death for every 5000 UNEMPLOYED. (cost of Corona Virus)

 

And certainly, among the unemployed, we will have many premature deaths - suicide, depression, anxiety, drug overdoses, not to mention

financially ruined lives.

 

I don't have the answer - but these data modelers better know what they are doing.

[LongHaul]

Great data find Always.  That is amazing.  How high that goes is anyone's guess.

Thanks Dalal for the medical help. 

 

For everyone:

If you are truly hating something go for a walk and release your hate.  There is no benefit to you or the world.  Hate deforms the mind and turns it into cabbage.

It probably also causes stress and hinders seeing objectively.

 

Psychological bias' are easy to study - hard to live

[cubsfan]

"And what is the real tragedy - the number of unemployed (destroying lives) or the tragic early death of someone due to having CV?"

 

Perhaps its just me but personally I would rather be unemployed than dead.

 

I think most people would also rather have a few difficult months than lose their parents/uncles/friends/coworkers/etc. It's not just the old, but those with other health issues, which includes obesity, diabetes, heart problems, compromised immune system, etc, and a lot of things that affect people of all ages. Some people act like "underlying health condition" means "not a real person who deserved to die anyway" when it's pointed out that a victim had some other illness... I guess people tend to see it all as statistics rather than think about their mom or favorite mentor.

 

Really appreciate you two geniuses stating the obvious.

 

And leave out the tragedy occurring on the other side of the coin - premature deaths due to catastrophic unemployment as we enter the Great Depression.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

Folks might want to do a reality check ...

 

"Based on some polling that we've done and some analysis, I fully expect unemployment in Alberta to be at least 25 per cent, at least half a million unemployed Albertans." If that happens, it would mark the highest unemployment rate in any Canadian province since modern records began. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the highest rate recorded by Statistics Canada since 1976 was in Newfoundland and Labrador, which hit 22.7 per cent unemployment in September 1984.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/kenney-unemployment-alberta-prediction-capp-symposium-1.5524461

 

10% above the highest unemployment rate, ever, in modern Canadian history.

 

Do you really think the economy is 'snapping back' once Covid-19 is done?

Or is it much more likely that it is an exit from something a lot worse ....

 

SD

 

[Investor20]

"And what is the real tragedy - the number of unemployed (destroying lives) or the tragic early death of someone due to having CV?"

 

Perhaps its just me but personally I would rather be unemployed than dead.

 

I think most people would also rather have a few difficult months than lose their parents/uncles/friends/coworkers/etc. It's not just the old, but those with other health issues, which includes obesity, diabetes, heart problems, compromised immune system, etc, and a lot of things that affect people of all ages. Some people act like "underlying health condition" means "not a real person who deserved to die anyway" when it's pointed out that a victim had some other illness... I guess people tend to see it all as statistics rather than think about their mom or favorite mentor.

 

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Italy had lot of shutdown and their numbers are high.

 

Empirically what proof exists that shutdowns work?

[Liberty]

Really appreciate you two geniuses stating the obvious.

 

And leave out the tragedy occurring on the other side of the coin - premature deaths due to catastrophic unemployment as we enter the Great Depression.

 

Who's leaving it out? I'm not. That's why I think Trump's handling of this was so bad. Both sides of this crisis would be better with some competence.

[Liberty]

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Italy had lot of shutdown and their numbers are high.

 

Empirically what proof exists that shutdowns work?

 

[cubsfan]

"And what is the real tragedy - the number of unemployed (destroying lives) or the tragic early death of someone due to having CV?"

 

Perhaps its just me but personally I would rather be unemployed than dead.

 

I think most people would also rather have a few difficult months than lose their parents/uncles/friends/coworkers/etc. It's not just the old, but those with other health issues, which includes obesity, diabetes, heart problems, compromised immune system, etc, and a lot of things that affect people of all ages. Some people act like "underlying health condition" means "not a real person who deserved to die anyway" when it's pointed out that a victim had some other illness... I guess people tend to see it all as statistics rather than think about their mom or favorite mentor.

 

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Italy had lot of shutdown and their numbers are high.

 

Empirically what proof exists that shutdowns work?

 

What we know is we are working with imperfect and missing data. There is a ton we don't know.

But many here do not have the intellectual humility to admit that. They are experts and they know their models are bulletproof.

 

So don't rock the boat - or you too will be ridiculed endlessly.

[alwaysdrawing]

"And what is the real tragedy - the number of unemployed (destroying lives) or the tragic early death of someone due to having CV?"

 

Perhaps its just me but personally I would rather be unemployed than dead.

 

I think most people would also rather have a few difficult months than lose their parents/uncles/friends/coworkers/etc. It's not just the old, but those with other health issues, which includes obesity, diabetes, heart problems, compromised immune system, etc, and a lot of things that affect people of all ages. Some people act like "underlying health condition" means "not a real person who deserved to die anyway" when it's pointed out that a victim had some other illness... I guess people tend to see it all as statistics rather than think about their mom or favorite mentor.

 

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Italy had lot of shutdown and their numbers are high.

 

Empirically what proof exists that shutdowns work?

 

Limiting social contacts clearly leads to slower progression of respiratory infections--there are just fewer chances to catch it.  I think shutdowns are just a formal way of trying to require social distancing to lessen the load on the health care system.  Based on what we've seen in Italy and NY, I really don't want to see what unmitigated spread looks like.

 

Japan is now shutting down Tokyo FWIW, as cases are rapidly growing there.

 

Ultimately, even epidemiologists think that we will need partial re-openings and then closings again if hotspots form again.  The experts are saying that this will continue to burn until we have a vaccine or gain herd immunity.  With most places only around 1-5% of the population estimated to be infected (which is multiples of the confirmed caseloads), and rising r0 estimates, herd immunity is a long way off.  I don't think that the estimates of much higher incidence (50-100x confirmed cases) are credible.

[Liberty]

"And what is the real tragedy - the number of unemployed (destroying lives) or the tragic early death of someone due to having CV?"

 

Perhaps its just me but personally I would rather be unemployed than dead.

 

I think most people would also rather have a few difficult months than lose their parents/uncles/friends/coworkers/etc. It's not just the old, but those with other health issues, which includes obesity, diabetes, heart problems, compromised immune system, etc, and a lot of things that affect people of all ages. Some people act like "underlying health condition" means "not a real person who deserved to die anyway" when it's pointed out that a victim had some other illness... I guess people tend to see it all as statistics rather than think about their mom or favorite mentor.

 

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Italy had lot of shutdown and their numbers are high.

 

Empirically what proof exists that shutdowns work?

 

What we know is we are working with imperfect and missing data. There is a ton we don't know.

But many here do not have the intellectual humility to admit that. They are experts and they know their models are bulletproof.

 

So don't rock the boat - or you too will be ridiculed endlessly.

 

Anyone who has looked at what places like Taiwan and Singapore (and South-Korea) have done knows that they've done about 100x more than most other places and were prepared and had epidemiologists running the show from early on, with strict quanratines (they call you and the police comes to your door if your phone runs out of battery while on quarantine), contact tracing, massive testing early on, face masks, clear communications from leaders and population understood what was going on and bought in, etc.

 

Italy is an example of what not to do. May have been a cultural thing, but population didn't respect social distancing for a long time in the early weeks, it was widely believed it wasn't a big deal, just the flu. Then they shut down small areas (red zones) and announced it in advance, so people fled from there to not get stuck and went to infect the rest of the country. Then they shut down a wider area, and things repeated. And then by the time they did the whole thing, it was too late and they had one of the worst situations in the world. Kind of like what the US has done...

 

But if we're starting to peak in some places now, it's because these places have been shutdown for about 3 weeks, which is how long it takes because of the inertia built in the system with the incubation period. It's not rocket science that if people were still going out, infections and deaths would be much higher.

[alwaysdrawing]

Folks might want to do a reality check ...

 

"Based on some polling that we've done and some analysis, I fully expect unemployment in Alberta to be at least 25 per cent, at least half a million unemployed Albertans." If that happens, it would mark the highest unemployment rate in any Canadian province since modern records began. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the highest rate recorded by Statistics Canada since 1976 was in Newfoundland and Labrador, which hit 22.7 per cent unemployment in September 1984.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/kenney-unemployment-alberta-prediction-capp-symposium-1.5524461

 

10% above the highest unemployment rate, ever, in Canadian history.

 

Do you really think the economy is 'snapping back' once Covid-19 is done?

Or is it much more likely that it is an exit from something a lot worse ....

 

SD

 

I am using the 1929-1933 depression as the guidepost.

 

I think this current situation is like layering the 1918 flu pandemic on top of the 1929 end of the long term debt cycle.  I see persistent high unemployment and deflation coming, and I think things will be worse if we open up too soon and let the virus run wild.  I hope there is a way to open in a limited way, but even that means a depression IMO.

[cubsfan]

"And what is the real tragedy - the number of unemployed (destroying lives) or the tragic early death of someone due to having CV?"

 

Perhaps its just me but personally I would rather be unemployed than dead.

 

I think most people would also rather have a few difficult months than lose their parents/uncles/friends/coworkers/etc. It's not just the old, but those with other health issues, which includes obesity, diabetes, heart problems, compromised immune system, etc, and a lot of things that affect people of all ages. Some people act like "underlying health condition" means "not a real person who deserved to die anyway" when it's pointed out that a victim had some other illness... I guess people tend to see it all as statistics rather than think about their mom or favorite mentor.

 

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Italy had lot of shutdown and their numbers are high.

 

Empirically what proof exists that shutdowns work?

 

Limiting social contacts clearly leads to slower progression of respiratory infections--there are just fewer chances to catch it.  I think shutdowns are just a formal way of trying to require social distancing to lessen the load on the health care system.  Based on what we've seen in Italy and NY, I really don't want to see what unmitigated spread looks like.

 

Japan is now shutting down Tokyo FWIW, as cases are rapidly growing there.

 

Ultimately, even epidemiologists think that we will need partial re-openings and then closings again if hotspots form again.  The experts are saying that this will continue to burn until we have a vaccine or gain herd immunity.  With most places only around 1-5% of the population estimated to be infected (which is multiples of the confirmed caseloads), and rising r0 estimates, herd immunity is a long way off.  I don't think that the estimates of much higher incidence (50-100x confirmed cases) are credible.

 

Social distancing is now the norm - it's getting drilled into everyone, which is great. So is mask wearing, hand washing, etc, etc.

I've never seen anything like it.  And obviously it's working to limit the spread. But we can also isolate the most vulnerable.

 

IF that is the COST for SOME people to go back to work - we ought to be to discuss it here without the ridicule of the experts.

[Liberty]

Meanwhile, like a good narcissist, Trump brags about his TV ratings: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1247897591611682818?s=20

[Investor20]

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Italy had lot of shutdown and their numbers are high.

 

Empirically what proof exists that shutdowns work?

 

 

I dont know what that means.

 

But is that your best answer why millions should loose their jobs?

 

Also I am hearing yesterday briefing.  They are declaring everyone irrespective of other clinical history as Covid death if they test positive for Covid. 

To have fair comparison, one should also test every dead person for flu and check how many die with flu.

 

Seriously, it is known many cadavers when checked, one can find many cancers, but no one does that and declares death due to cancer. 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4485977/

The High Prevalence of Undiagnosed Prostate Cancer at Autopsy:

Among men aged 70-79, tumor was found in 36% of Caucasians and 51% of African-Americans.

 

Will Dr. Fauci with straight face can say about 40% americans die of prostate cancer?

 

So is that the best answer you can give to justify why so many millions need to loose jobs?

[Spekulatius]

After the high risk group have been identified, please also add a bailout package for them until vaccine has been found. Easy peasy, recession solved.

 

No, I'd say just kill them all. They gonna die anyway.

 

A lot of problems solved.

 

The risk group is probably 1/3 of the population depending on how it is defined.

[Liberty]

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Italy had lot of shutdown and their numbers are high.

 

Empirically what proof exists that shutdowns work?

 

 

I dont know what that means.

 

But is that your best answer why millions should loose their jobs?

 

Also I am hearing yesterday briefing.  They are declaring everyone irrespective of other clinical history as Covid death if they test positive for Covid. 

To have fair comparison, one should also test every dead person for flu and check how many die with flu.

 

Seriously, it is known many cadavers when checked, one can find many cancers, but no one does that and declares death due to cancer. 

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4485977/

The High Prevalence of Undiagnosed Prostate Cancer at Autopsy:

Among men aged 70-79, tumor was found in 36% of Caucasians and 51% of African-Americans.

 

Will Dr. Fauci with straight face can say about 40% americans die of prostate cancer?

 

So is that the best answer you can give to justify why so many millions need to loose jobs?

 

Pay attention, look things up, you'll find answers to all your questions, you don't need me to hand-hold you.

[Investor20]

"And what is the real tragedy - the number of unemployed (destroying lives) or the tragic early death of someone due to having CV?"

 

Perhaps its just me but personally I would rather be unemployed than dead.

 

I think most people would also rather have a few difficult months than lose their parents/uncles/friends/coworkers/etc. It's not just the old, but those with other health issues, which includes obesity, diabetes, heart problems, compromised immune system, etc, and a lot of things that affect people of all ages. Some people act like "underlying health condition" means "not a real person who deserved to die anyway" when it's pointed out that a victim had some other illness... I guess people tend to see it all as statistics rather than think about their mom or favorite mentor.

 

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Italy had lot of shutdown and their numbers are high.

 

Empirically what proof exists that shutdowns work?

 

What we know is we are working with imperfect and missing data. There is a ton we don't know.

But many here do not have the intellectual humility to admit that. They are experts and they know their models are bulletproof.

 

So don't rock the boat - or you too will be ridiculed endlessly.

 

Anyone who has looked at what places like Taiwan and Singapore (and South-Korea) have done knows that they've done about 100x more than most other places and were prepared and had epidemiologists running the show from early on, with strict quanratines (they call you and the police comes to your door if your phone runs out of battery while on quarantine), contact tracing, massive testing early on, face masks, clear communications from leaders and population understood what was going on and bought in, etc.

 

Italy is an example of what not to do. May have been a cultural thing, but population didn't respect social distancing for a long time in the early weeks, it was widely believed it wasn't a big deal, just the flu. Then they shut down small areas (red zones) and announced it in advance, so people fled from there to not get stuck and went to infect the rest of the country. Then they shut down a wider area, and things repeated. And then by the time they did the whole thing, it was too late and they had one of the worst situations in the world. Kind of like what the US has done...

 

But if we're starting to peak in some places now, it's because these places have been shutdown for about 3 weeks, which is how long it takes because of the inertia built in the system with the incubation period. It's not rocket science that if people were still going out, infections and deaths would be much higher.

"massive testing"

 

For sure Japan did not do massive testing or shutdowns. Their deaths till now are 94.

 

But italy did shutdowns with 17,000 deaths (adjusted to Japan population approximately double of 34,000)?

 

Is there a choice?

 

 

[gary17]

a good reason for many asian countries doing well could

be their BCG immunization

 

if you look at the world - this virus hit particularly hard if rich western countries that have abandoned BCG vaccine. 

 

China is an outlier - maybe they were getting fake vaccines...

[Guest cherzeca]

After the high risk group have been identified, please also add a bailout package for them until vaccine has been found. Easy peasy, recession solved.

 

No, I'd say just kill them all. They gonna die anyway.

 

A lot of problems solved.

 

The risk group is probably 1/3 of the population depending on how it is defined.

 

so what?  focusing scarce preventative/mitigation resources on 1/3 of population makes more sense than wasting it on 2/3rds of the population.

 

this goes back to the madness of the epidemiologists, and how absurd it was for us to appoint them as experts.  both Fauci and Birx grew up as HIV experts, and nationwide prevention there was safe sex.  didn't need to shut down the entire nation for that.  but because every problem looks like a nail when you use a hammer,  they simply said we need nationwide protection for covid.  and this is a huge mistake that involved 2/3rds of the population needlessly

[EliG]

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Singapore is locked down as of yesterday.

 

'Dead city': Singapore enters month-long lockdown

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/582116/dead-city-singapore-enters-month-long-lockdown

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Singapore is locked down as of yesterday.

 

'Dead city': Singapore enters month-long lockdown

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/582116/dead-city-singapore-enters-month-long-lockdown

 

And now Tokyo (Japan) about to enter the fray:

 

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/1737f92bfccd-coronavirus-list-of-shops-to-close-in-tokyo-due-to-emergency-declaration.html

[Guest cherzeca]

What proof actually is there that shutdowns work?

 

Most of South East Asia countries (Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, etc) never had any shutdown and their numbers are low.

 

Singapore is locked down as of yesterday.

 

'Dead city': Singapore enters month-long lockdown

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020/04/582116/dead-city-singapore-enters-month-long-lockdown

 

Singapore is always in some kind of lock down

[cubsfan]

 

so what?  focusing scarce preventative/mitigation resources on 1/3 of population makes more sense than wasting it on 2/3rds of the population.

 

this goes back to the madness of the epidemiologists, and how absurd it was for us to appoint them as experts.  both Fauci and Birx grew up as HIV experts, and nationwide prevention there was safe sex.  didn't need to shut down the entire nation for that.  but because every problem looks like a nail when you use a hammer,  they simply said we need nationwide protection for covid.  and this is a huge mistake that involved 2/3rds of the population needlessly

 

Like Buffett says - beware of geeks with models.