Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

 

^ I hope for priority distribution for frontline workers as it would concern my wife. I think distribution of the vaccine (the three W’s - who, when, where) should be an extremely high priority for the government and it should be planned upfront before the vaccine is available.

 

FWIW, there is very little specific testing for front line workers here and I suspect it is for liability reason and because they want to avoid widespread quarantines for frontline workers, in case someone tests positive. The testing for patients appears to be quite comprehensive.

 

 

In the United States, the first part of that planning process should be a diagnostic blood test in advance to see who is already carrying antibodies.  So, create a two-stage vaccination process where people can apply in November to be amongst the earliest vaccinated, but as part of the deal, they go for a blood test in advance to see whether they have antibodies and actually have any imminent need for the vaccine.  Then, once the initial surge of demand is satisfied, you have stage 2 where anyone can present themselves at a vaccination station and obtain the vaccine on demand, whether they need it or not.

 

Today, we are at 8.6m officially diagnosed cases in the US.  So, how many true cases are there, maybe 85 million? That would suggest that already there is 27 or 28 percent of the population that likely has at least temporary immunity and does not urgently need the jab.  If the first jab does not actually occur until January 1, and if there are a modest 50k/day of officially diagnosed new cases in the US, there would be a total of 12 million official cases on January 1, which would likely represent perhaps 120 million people who have already had covid, or about 35 percent of the population.  Given the extent of covid spread to date, it is entirely possible that only ~100 million vaccinations would be required to drive the R0 below 1.

 

Other countries, such as Canada, where the spread has been less pronounced will require a much more comprehensive vaccination program.

 

 

SJ

 

I don’t know if your 10x multiplier (tested positive vs actual infected). I have seen multipliers of 4-5x based on studied in Germany  that may not apply here. As testing gets better , this multiplier comes down.

 

As for antibody tests, they are somewhat costly and certainly will cost more than a vaccine. Frontline workers don’t get tested for antibodies either, so who exactly will bear this cost? I don’t think the capacities for widespread antibody testing is there either.

 

I don’t think antibody test results will play a role on how the vaccine is distributed.

 

I think the last large scale study in the US was the dialysis users' study, which showed that 9.3% of dialysis patients had antibodies during July.  In mid-July, there was 3.7m, official cases in the US, which was about 1.1% of the population.  So, the most recent major study would suggest 8 or 9 to 1 ratio for a sub-population of people who are more vulnerable than average and who should have been well motivated to avoid covid.  But, I would agree that presumably the 10-to-1 comes down as testing becomes more prevalent.

 

I suspect that you are correct that diagnostic antibody tests are unlikely to be used in a vaccination programme.  The first 20 or 30 million vaccinations in the US will be in hot demand from the most vulnerable populations, healthcare workers and first responders and then demand will slow as less vulnerable people will be less motivated.  Unfortunately, it is likely that 30% or 40% of those initial vaccinations that will be in very high demand will be "wasted" on people who are already immune by virtue of having already had covid without even realising it.  The cost of the "wasted" vaccinations in dollars will be pretty minimal, but the frustration of those who are anxiously awaiting their turn will be palpable (as it was during the H1N1 vaccination process).

 

 

SJ

 

I have some doubts about hot demand. The polls seems to indicate a fair amount of skepticism about COVID-19 vaccine. The Moderna vaccine has a new mechanism of action, so for me it is the largest question mark. Perhaps a lot of people go the “you try it first “ route?

 

I would take the vaccine and my wife too, if it become available and assuming it has been properly vetted. I think about the worst thing Trump could do is get an emergency authorization for the vaccine if it’s clear that the FDA has gone though the complete vetting process yet and we don’t have complete confidence in data.

 

I follow Merck closely and while they are behind, they have very good vaccine tech and working on an orally administered vaccine thwt is also supposed to work well for older people.

 

Older people unfortunately have a weaker immune response and that it why vaccine often don’t work as well for them. This is unfortunate, because especially with COVID-19, older people need protection most. So it will be interesting to see a subgroup analysis for the 65 year + age cohort to understand if the vaccine even works for them.

 

Lots of decisions to be made and ai feel the discussion about this should have started already.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Chris Christie learns about asymmetry:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-should-have-worn-a-mask-11603315968

 

I Should Have Worn a Mask

It’s not a partisan or cultural symbol, not a sign of weakness or virtue.

 

...at the Rose Garden nomination event for Judge Amy Coney Barrett, and during debate preparations with President Trump, I let my guard down and left my mask off. I mistook the bubble of security around the president for a viral safe zone. I was wrong. There is no safe zone from this virus.

 

When you get this disease, it hits you how easy it is to prevent. We are asked to wear cloth over our mouth and nose, wash our hands and avoid crowds. These minor inconveniences can save your life, your neighbors and the economy. Seldom has so little been asked for so much benefit. Yet the message will be broadly heeded only if it is consistently and honestly delivered by the media, religious leaders, sports figures and public servants. Those in positions of authority have a duty to get the message out.

 

A bit late learning & announcing this all the way in October...and after contracting covid, but oh well...

 

Fortunately for him, his downside risk was mitigated thanks to being a well known public figure with access to the best healthcare you can get.

[Viking]

Here we go again... if you mismanage the virus and allow your case count to spike there are consequences. You HAVE to impose stricter measures. And the economy suffers. Mismanaging the virus = worse health outcomes AND worse economic outcomes. You get a double whammy. It is NOT virus or economy; the two are joined at the hip. And likely will be for the next year or two.

 

The crazy thing is we are only starting flu season. Due to seasonality the virus case count will get much worse in Europe, US and Canada in the coming months.

 

The US and Canada appear to be a few weeks behind Europe.

 

Absent a complete shit show (hospitals getting overwhelmed) I do not expect Western governments to respond like they did in March and April. However, i think it likely we will see a slow ratcheting up of measures until the case count is brought back under control.

 

Yes, a vaccine will help. But how helpful they will be in the coming months is unkown.

 

Buckle up... the next couple of months could really get interesting. Can anyone say ‘double dip recession’?

 

PS: fortunately, according to President Trump, the US has nothing to worry about. The situation in the US is about to get much, much better - ‘turning the corner’ kind of thing. (You can believe that if it makes you feel better :-)

 

————————————-

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez declares national state of emergency over COVID-19 outbreak

- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-spanish-pm-pedro-sanchez-declares-national-state-of-emergency-over/

 

Buckling under the resurgence of the coronavirus in Europe, the Spanish government on Sunday declared a national state of emergency that includes an overnight curfew in hopes of not repeating the near collapse of the country’s hospitals.

 

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said the decision to restrict free movement on the streets of Spain between 11 p.m.-6 a.m. allows exceptions for commuting to work, buying medicine, and caring for elderly and young family members. He said the curfew takes effect Sunday night and would likely remain in place for six months.

 

“The reality is that Europe and Spain are immersed in a second wave of the pandemic,” Sanchez said during a nationwide address after meeting with his Cabinet. “The situation we are living in is extreme.”

 

————————

Wales Imposes 'Firebreak Lockdown' As Coronavirus Cases Spike

- https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/10/23/927137727/wales-imposes-firebreak-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-spike

 

Wales is heading into a 17-day lockdown on Friday evening, as many parts of Europe reimpose safety measures because of rising coronavirus case counts.

 

The "firebreak lockdown" went into effect at 6 p.m. local time and requires that people remain home with few exceptions.

 

Pubs, restaurants and nonessential shops will shut, along with libraries and community and recycling centers. The Welsh government is also banning gatherings involving people from different households, both indoors and outside.

 

Wales has had 182 cases per 100,000 people in the past week. That's the third highest rate in the United Kingdom, behind Northern Ireland.

 

"We know that if we do not act now, it will continue to accelerate and there is a very real risk that our NHS will be overwhelmed," said Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford, referring to the need to protect the National Health Service.

[Spekulatius]

I went through the charts today and SD has a positivity rate of 38.2%?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

 

Very little testing -2k tests daily. That’s nothing even for a state with low population like SD. I guess they like sticking their head in the sand.

[Viking]

I went through the charts today and SD has a positivity rate of 38.2%?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

 

Very little testing -2k tests daily. That’s nothing even for a state with low population like SD. I guess they like sticking their head in the sand.

 

My guess is hospitalizations will be the key statistic. If cases spike and hospitalizations do not then little will change. If hospitalizations increase to uncomfortable levels then politicians will be forced to do more. Just like in March / April.

 

Case count increase to me is a red flag. Hospitalizations, which usually take 2-3 weeks to show up will be the call to action (should they get uncomfortably high).

 

The experience in the coming months will likely be very different than in March / April. We have learned much about the virus that will inform actions. Most importantly, the most vulnerable understand the risks and therefore should be much more prepared. So i do not expect severe outcomes (deaths) to come close to levels seen in March/April.

[Spekulatius]

I went through the charts today and SD has a positivity rate of 38.2%?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

 

Very little testing -2k tests daily. That’s nothing even for a state with low population like SD. I guess they like sticking their head in the sand.

 

My guess is hospitalizations will be the key statistic. If cases spike and hospitalizations do not then little will change. If hospitalizations increase to uncomfortable levels then politicians will be forced to do more. Just like in March / April.

 

Case count increase to me is a red flag. Hospitalizations, which usually take 2-3 weeks to show up will be the call to action (should they get uncomfortably high).

 

The experience in the coming months will likely be very different than in March / April. We have learned much about the virus that will inform actions. Most importantly, the most vulnerable understand the risks and therefore should be much more prepared. So i do not expect severe outcomes (deaths) to come close to levels seen in March/April.

 

I agree on hospitalization driving the decisions. #of infections is not a good metric since it scales with number of cases and death are a trailing number.

 

Anyways, a positivity rate of 38% is shocking 7 month into this epidemic and indicates that the folks making decisions  on health matters are sleeping at the wheel and should be booted, imo.

 

That’s my opinion, but thats for the SD voters to decide.

[Cigarbutt]

I went through the charts today and SD has a positivity rate of 38.2%?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

Very little testing -2k tests daily. That’s nothing even for a state with low population like SD. I guess they like sticking their head in the sand.

It would be easy to dismiss SD but there is so much to learn.

Those in charge (holding responsibility) in South Dakota recently reported that their assessment of the situation (rising cases and rising hospitalizations) was a result of more testing in some areas of the state (!) and due to people now reaching hospitalization stage for other conditions because of delayed care as a result of Covid restrictions (!). They can also boast a CFR going from 1.4% to 1.0% as a proof of excellent governance and care..

South Dakota has the highest hospital-bed-per-capita numbers in the US (twice more than MA and four times my area). They also have one of the worst records (absolute numbers per population and trends) for influenza deaths. In this context, so far in 2020 for Covid, South Dakota, as it is reaching its peak, has twice the average annual flu death toll and has reached a rate of flu-death-per-year equivalent every 10 days for the next 6 weeks or so. In terms of hospital capacity, at this point about 15% of their acute care beds and 30% of their intensive care beds are occupied by Covid cases. The impact on 'productivity' at those levels (isolation, extra-steps, protocols) has got to be very significant.

An under appreciated aspect is that the group in SD most at risk for a nervous breakdown are those working as contact and tracers:

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2020/08/24/covid-19-cases-rise-experts-question-effectiveness-contact-tracing/3430097001/

[Viking]

A few more updates of where some other countries are at. Clearly, we are in early days in this new wave. Interesting, but in the end the virus is dictating what each and every governments across the globe (eventually) does. (Of course this is obvious.) The US had better wake up. The more clusters you allow to happen the faster the virus spreads. Denial is not a good strategy...

 

1.) Italy

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-italy-second-wave-lockdown/2020/10/25/6c011306-16df-11eb-82db-60b15c874105_story.html

 

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced the new restrictions as the country reported a record 21,273 cases on Sunday. Beginning Monday, restaurants and bars will be required to close by 6 p.m., and gyms, pools and movie theaters must shut down entirely. The restrictions are the fourth round of tightening this month in Italy, and the most severe since the country lifted its nationwide lockdown in May.

 

2.) Belgium

 

Covid-19 surge in Belgium leads to shortage of doctors, teachers and police

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/belgium-covid-hospitals-schools/2020/10/23/85358010-14a9-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html

 

BRUSSELS — Well into Europe's second wave of the coronavirus, so many Belgians are sick or quarantining that there aren't enough police on the streets, teachers in classrooms or medical staff in hospitals.

 

In some hospitals, doctors and nurses who have tested positive but don’t have symptoms are being asked to keep working, because so many others are out sick with covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. School principals are marshaling secretaries and parent volunteers to replace falling ranks of teachers.

 

“We have runaway numbers in terms of contamination and a major issue is the risk of the collapse of the hospital system of our country,” the minister-president of Brussels, Rudi Vervoort, said Saturday as he announced a host of new restrictions.

 

Unlike in the spring, there are enough masks and gowns to go around. But months of preparation haven’t been able to avert a shortage of people. And a decision by the national government to remove a mask mandate and loosen restrictions on social contacts this month contributed to an acceleration of the virus before being largely reversed in hard-hit areas since Friday.

 

3.) Ireland (6 days ago)

 

Ireland to reimpose national lockdown amid surge in COVID-19 cases

- https://thehill.com/homenews/news/521846-ireland-to-reimpose-national-lockdown-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases

 

Ireland's government is set to impose a six-week lockdown on the entire country as COVID-19 cases continue to rise, according to The New York Times.

 

The country will become the first in Europe to reimpose a nationwide lockdown when it shuts down nonessential businesses on Wednesday night, according to the Times.

 

“While we have slowed the spread of the virus, this has not been enough and further action is required,” Micheal Martin, the taoiseach, or leader of the government, said in a national address on Monday night, the Times reported.

 

Irish residents will be urged to remain at home and restaurants will be relegated to takeout or delivery only, according to the Times.

 

The country will impose fines on people who travel more than 5 km from their homes during the lockdown, The Guardian reported.

 

While schools and child care providers will remain open under the new action, gatherings and visits to private homes will be prohibited, the Times reported.

[Viking]

Great interview with Scott Gottleib. He is not optimistic at where the US is at. I think he said ‘tipping point’. In 2 or 3 weeks time things could really start to get messy. Not encouraging.

 

What to do? To start, wear a mask he says. (Wow! If only we had known!)

 

- https://www.cbsnews.com/live/video/20201025203302-former-fda-commissioner-dr-scott-gottlieb-on-face-the-nation/#x

[clutch]

I was pretty convinced that mask-wearing was the big difference between countries who had it under control vs. those not. But then, look at Italy now. They have been enforcing mask-wearing since the beginning, and since early October, it has been mandatory even outdoors. I recall hearing that people are fairly compliant as well from one of CBC radio news. But then their cases are out of control now.

 

It seems obvious that spread will happen in situations where people gather indoor and take their masks off. Following this logic, many governments (including Ontario in Canada) are now shutting down restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. We will see how effective this is -- my personal feeling is that spread is more likely to occur when people gather with each other in their homes, where social distancing and mask-wearing will become non-existent. Not sure how (non-totalitarian) governments can prevent such gatherings...

[Viking]

I was pretty convinced that mask-wearing was the big difference between countries who had it under control vs. those not. But then, look at Italy now. They have been enforcing mask-wearing since the beginning, and since early October, it has been mandatory even outdoors. I recall hearing that people are fairly compliant as well from one of CBC radio news. But then their cases are out of control now.

 

It seems obvious that spread will happen in situations where people gather indoor and take their masks off. Following this logic, many governments (including Ontario in Canada) are now shutting down restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. We will see how effective this is -- my personal feeling is that spread is more likely to occur when people gather with each other in their homes, where social distancing and mask-wearing will become non-existent. Not sure how (non-totalitarian) governments can prevent such gatherings...

 

The model to deal with the virus is pretty straight forward:

1.) wear a mask

2.) social distance

3.) aggressively contact trace positive cases

4.) most importantly, do not allow clusters to form (which result in superspreader events)

 

Where do clusters usually form? Bars, weddings, funerals, White House events etc. Large gatherings, close together, poor ventilation, talking loudly etc.

 

It looks to me like parts of Europe opened up too much over the summer or people got tired of following the rules (or some combination).

 

Bottom line, the virus will eventually let you know if you are doing the right or the wrong things.

[cwericb]

 

I know this is not news and I don’t think this is the whole answer.

 

But if everyone would simply wear a mask in the proximity to others from outside their immediate family, common sense tells us that it is by far the cheapest, the least complicated and potentially the most effective measure that the average person can take at this time to: a) protect oneself, and, b) protect others.

 

It is just common sense and a simple first aid technique until we come up with more effective measures.

 

The fact that anyone could disagree or politicize this is just mind boggling. Other than a slight inconvenience what does anyone have to lose?

 

If some refuse to cooperate in protecting the rest of us, then mandate it just the same as we  mandate against drinking and driving to protect others who are on the road.

 

The penalties for ignoring the rules should be substantial. Here for example, if you do not self isolate after travel the fine is $1,000 first offence, $2,000 second offence, $10,000 third offence. Fines for refusing to wear a mask could be similar.

 

Contract tracing is also most important. Here if you go to a restaurant or bar, for instance, you have to leave your contact information.

[clutch]

I was pretty convinced that mask-wearing was the big difference between countries who had it under control vs. those not. But then, look at Italy now. They have been enforcing mask-wearing since the beginning, and since early October, it has been mandatory even outdoors. I recall hearing that people are fairly compliant as well from one of CBC radio news. But then their cases are out of control now.

 

It seems obvious that spread will happen in situations where people gather indoor and take their masks off. Following this logic, many governments (including Ontario in Canada) are now shutting down restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. We will see how effective this is -- my personal feeling is that spread is more likely to occur when people gather with each other in their homes, where social distancing and mask-wearing will become non-existent. Not sure how (non-totalitarian) governments can prevent such gatherings...

 

The model to deal with the virus is pretty straight forward:

1.) wear a mask

2.) social distance

3.) aggressively contact trace positive cases

4.) most importantly, do not allow clusters to form (which result in superspreader events)

 

Where do clusters usually form? Bars, weddings, funerals, White House events etc. Large gatherings, close together, poor ventilation, talking loudly etc.

 

It looks to me like parts of Europe opened up too much over the summer or people got tired of following the rules (or some combination).

 

Bottom line, the virus will eventually let you know if you are doing the right or the wrong things.

 

I would never call it straightforward when the entire world is struggling to deal with the virus. Maybe straightforward on paper but not at all considering our society and people.

[Investor20]

I was pretty convinced that mask-wearing was the big difference between countries who had it under control vs. those not. But then, look at Italy now. They have been enforcing mask-wearing since the beginning, and since early October, it has been mandatory even outdoors. I recall hearing that people are fairly compliant as well from one of CBC radio news. But then their cases are out of control now.

 

It seems obvious that spread will happen in situations where people gather indoor and take their masks off. Following this logic, many governments (including Ontario in Canada) are now shutting down restaurants, bars, gyms, etc. We will see how effective this is -- my personal feeling is that spread is more likely to occur when people gather with each other in their homes, where social distancing and mask-wearing will become non-existent. Not sure how (non-totalitarian) governments can prevent such gatherings...

 

People in Italy, Spain, France and the UK wear face masks in public more than the other countries. (YouGov)

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/face-masks-europe-face-coverings-uk-laws-144339504.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8_dD1mZmFiJnE9ZXVyb3BlYW4rY291bnRyaWVzK3dpdGgrbW9zdCttYXNrcyZhdGI9djE1OC0xJmlhPXdlYg&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADuh45v5cwQ5dQGosUDLChX7rm8QCLyY5rDD7nbJGlPVX0gznKZ6afAMg95fs1pZ6hXXCFHWrQRSbxnbo2UjxiXZB4QFrYBltPpBMCQTB56-Lk5B8_pxWUO1_B1t3FkeNWU4zEYKzsgBrYeLukbFsVg0_FI3bd2gfXeJfl3sdwRR

Italy to Join France and U.K. With Curbs as Cases Hit Record

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-paris-steel-curbs-check-122938393.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFdifskhnHJnrm7_vNlWQjIuQ8VMlJKtpwpKyNj4HlEdZg8Rgd640R5MEoaW_SUIdM5rcE6iPMsm7DYVSoCCkFYQ51xLcAZHWq8FLUqVm9oKvYwpeJ4EbgO6t9ZVcZKLSIGpZiaaqxW6N7U_BLF5Gmn9IW-9JsGsdE3pyhokqKDP

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/spain-declares-coronavirus-state-emergency-163849051.html

Spain declares coronavirus state of emergency

There are two things I believe have lot more scientific background to mitigate the pandemic.

 

1) Ventilation

2) Vitamin D

In addition to distancing.

 

[LC]

El Paso, Texas reaches hospitalization capacity.

 

[Investor20]

I went through the charts today and SD has a positivity rate of 38.2%?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

 

Very little testing -2k tests daily. That’s nothing even for a state with low population like SD. I guess they like sticking their head in the sand.

 

The data in this website is not correlating with other websites.

 

https://covidactnow.org/us/south_dakota-sd?s=1200292 is giving south dakota positivity rate with 15.4%

 

Also the website is giving Florida positivity rate 16.3%.

 

But the Florida state website report is giving 4.71% as of Oct 24 and ranged from 3.6 to 6.7 in last two weeks.

 

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/cases-monitoring-and-pui-information/county-report/county_reports_latest.pdf

[Spekulatius]

I went through the charts today and SD has a positivity rate of 38.2%?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

 

Very little testing -2k tests daily. That’s nothing even for a state with low population like SD. I guess they like sticking their head in the sand.

 

The data in this website is not correlating with other websites.

 

https://covidactnow.org/us/south_dakota-sd?s=1200292 is giving south dakota positivity rate with 15.4%

 

Also the website is giving Florida positivity rate 16.3%.

 

But the Florida state website report is giving 4.71% as of Oct 24 and ranged from 3.6 to 6.7 in last two weeks.

 

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/cases-monitoring-and-pui-information/county-report/county_reports_latest.pdf

 

Could well be. Those guys use data feeds from the state websites that can get disrupted when they change something.

The SD Gov website also shows 15.4% positivity ( which is still pretty high) and that’s for a 14 day average.

[Spekulatius]

This second wave comes at a terrible time for retailers and malls - looks like Black Friday is entirely cancelled and will be replaced with online deals.

No wonder $AMZN stock is up in a down Market.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Second wave for Europe. Third for America.

 

Who knew shunning doctors/scientists and chanting “the virus will be gone soon” wouldn’t work in the face of a pandemic?

[Cigarbutt]

I went through the charts today and SD has a positivity rate of 38.2%?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

Very little testing -2k tests daily. That’s nothing even for a state with low population like SD. I guess they like sticking their head in the sand.

The data in this website is not correlating with other websites.

https://covidactnow.org/us/south_dakota-sd?s=1200292 is giving south dakota positivity rate with 15.4%

Also the website is giving Florida positivity rate 16.3%.

But the Florida state website report is giving 4.71% as of Oct 24 and ranged from 3.6 to 6.7 in last two weeks.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/cases-monitoring-and-pui-information/county-report/county_reports_latest.pdf

Could well be. Those guys use data feeds from the state websites that can get disrupted when they change something.

The SD Gov website also shows 15.4% positivity ( which is still pretty high) and that’s for a 14 day average.

i didn't spend enough time to be a 100% sure but the data, as submitted initially, seems to be relevant and accurate. The combined data sites from various sources can result in discrepancies for various methodological reasons (definitions, private vs public labs, 7-day vs 14-day average etc).

The % percent positive numbers that Investor20 refers to seem to be a cumulative number, which would tend to show linear changes (similar to log) when, in fact, exponential events are under way. See:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map/south-dakota

 

@Investor20

Your sunlight hypothesis is hard to reconcile with the third leg of this unique wave because, from a coherence point of view, resurgence activity would have been expected much later in the season, perhaps in December or after. Also, virus and infectious diseases that tend to show seasonality can peak in various months, unrelated to exposure to UV light. For example, the polio virus used to peak in August.

[RadMan24]

Second wave for Europe. Third for America.

 

Who knew shunning doctors/scientists and chanting “the virus will be gone soon” wouldn’t work in the face of a pandemic?

 

Explain Sweden. Thanks.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Second wave for Europe. Third for America.

 

Who knew shunning doctors/scientists and chanting “the virus will be gone soon” wouldn’t work in the face of a pandemic?

 

Explain Sweden. Thanks.

 

Sweden cases going up, economy in deep recession even with no lockdowns (even without lockdowns, consumption goes south if the virus is spreading).

 

Asian countries and NZ seem to be doing well on both the pandemic and economic fronts though.

 

Not much else to say.

[Spekulatius]

Lots of vegetables being eaten in Europe right now...

 

Europe got complacent. Cases here are rising too - in all regions. I think we will crack 100k cases/ day very quickly. Hospitalization is the one metric to  look at. The last waves topped out at 60k COVID-19 hospitalization. Once we get to this number, the hospitals system becomes strained, we are going to have local restrictions again.

 

Edit: another indicator - my wife went to Costco today and noticed that several items like paper, wipes were sold out, just like during the first wave. Apparently people are getting ready for things to come.

 

Hording confirmed from my wife‘s sources in the Bay Area ( Asian people tend to be early). Long lines in grocery stores & Costco, some paper goods and Ramen noodles sold out etc.

 

We have seen this before....

 

[Jurgis]

Hording confirmed from my wife‘s sources in the Bay Area ( Asian people tend to be early). Long lines in grocery stores & Costco, some paper goods and Ramen noodles sold out etc.

 

Very few people in Wegman's store Saturday morning. No lines to get in, not many people in store, and very short lines at registers. Last time we went to Wegman's (I think in June/July) there were lines to get in, store was crowded, and huge line at registers.

 

Saturday nobody was hoarding at all. Huge selection of toilet paper, paper towels, etc. We bought some since hey Spekulatius told us to hoard  8), but we were the only ones buying. Some guy even made fun of our paper towels pack on the cart. ::)

[Spekulatius]

Hording confirmed from my wife‘s sources in the Bay Area ( Asian people tend to be early). Long lines in grocery stores & Costco, some paper goods and Ramen noodles sold out etc.

 

Very few people in Wegman's store Saturday morning. No lines to get in, not many people in store, and very short lines at registers. Last time we went to Wegman's (I think in June/July) there were lines to get in, store was crowded, and huge line at registers.

 

Saturday nobody was hoarding at all. Huge selection of toilet paper, paper towels, etc. We bought some since hey Spekulatius told us to hoard  8), but we were the only ones buying. Some guy even made fun of our paper towels pack on the cart. ::)

 

Got to get in before the rush. Wegman‘s is a rich people‘s store and doesn’t have the right vibe for the horders.

 

Try a Costco or even better a Superwalmart next and see how it goes.

 

I bet gun an ammo sales are up too to get ready for the election riots.