Coronavirus

[Gregmal]

We MUST listen to Fauci! He's the only expert we have!

 

If Fauci promotes getting the vaccine prior to November......Dont do it! Trump must be up to something....

 

 

Same "stuff" as always from the usual suspects.

 

 

[Cigarbutt]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub

"Effect of Calcifediol Treatment and best Available Therapy versus best Available Therapy on Intensive Care Unit Admission and Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: A Pilot Randomized Clinical study"

Participants:  .....confirmed by a radiographic pattern of viral pneumonia and by a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR......

Conclusion

Our pilot study demonstrated that administration of a high dose of Calcifediol or 25-hydroxyvitamin D, a main metabolite of vitamin D endocrine system, significantly reduced the need for ICU treatment of patients requiring hospitalization due to proven COVID-19. Calcifediol seems to be able to reduce severity of the disease, but larger trials with groups properly matched will be required to show a definitive answer.

.................................

Small study but very interesting that Calcifediol (vitamin D metabolite) can reduce ICU admission of patients already with "radiographic pattern of viral pneumonia". Hope it will be confirmed by further studies.

This is interesting work and results suggest that the idea is worth pursuing. Disclosure: i only spent about 10 minutes on this, this AM and the answer comes only now because i had a few things to take care of including an extended outdoor training activity where the sun was present about 50% of the time which likely helped with my own vit D levels.

The negatives:

Small numbers, not "blind" and others mentioned below.

-Why were vit D levels not measured, at least at baseline? ---) this would have been easy to do and isn't this a critical component?

-It would have been useful to include a more systematic description of CT-scans of the chest with a severity grading (to compare both groups)

-Obesity or simply BMI was not considered even if it likely is an incompletely correlated variable with significant independent effect

-The results seem too good to be true (it feels like seeing a growth stock with enduring moat selling at a discount to book value)

 

Apologies for the geeky addition here but there is something that stroke me as very significant: the D-dimer levels. For the financially sophisticated who may have reached this far but who may not know the latest about D-dimers, here's a short summary. D-dimers levels, just like bradykinin, various cytokines and a long list of other candidates including vitamin D have been found to "say" something about the severity of the disease. It's like the Altman Z-score as an indicator of financial distress. Most would agree that correcting the inputs of the Altman Z-score that led to distress would have a tendency to improve both the score and the likelihood of downgrades or bankruptcies but this is creating a lot of confusion in Covid research at this point because most of the "markers" are very poorly understood. Some of these efforts feel like if one would try to mechanically improve the level of account receivables without understanding what drove the changes before. Anyways, the D-dimer levels tend to "say" a lot and elevated levels are bad for you. It's often part of a handful of variables that are included in a score that, for example, will give you an idea of the odds, upon "admission", that you will leave the ICU alive. Soooo, in this specific study, there a statistical artifice that suggests that the D-dimer levels are not significantly different but the visible difference suggests to discount the results to a significant degree. The mean level is significantly higher and the standard deviation is off the chart for the "untreated" group, suggesting that the group included a few people with very high D-dimer levels, perhaps explaining the poor outcome for those specific individuals.

 

i really like the Andalucía region and have been to Córdoba (where the study was done) once. FWIW, their mosque is absolutely beautiful and represents a unique religious compromise from the the point of view of an inter-temporal architectural bipartisan agreement. Like for the rest of Spain, the vit D dietary intake tends to be low. Sun exposure is potentially very high in the Andalucía region but it gets so hot and the sun so strong during the day that often people avoid going out or go out covered. The area is still struggling with community transmission and further studies with more robust designs may provide more answers.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Lol, the "usual suspects" who supported a guy because he undermined institutions now confused why we don't trust Trump and his CDC/FDA on a vaccine...so strange! Who could have seen this coming?? Maybe undermining trust in things like the "deep state" has negative consequences! Oh, well!

 

Or maybe Donnie will come out later and say he was "being sarcastic" about this vaccine being safe & effective like his bleach therapy!

 

And for some reason they are upset people don't believe in the vaccine when they are sure we have achieved "herd immunity"

already! What's it about holding contradictory ideas in your head?

[Cigarbutt]

Lol, the "usual suspects" who supported a guy because he undermined institutions now confused why we don't trust Trump and his CDC/FDA on a vaccine...so strange! Who could have seen this coming?? Maybe undermining trust in things like the "deep state" has negative consequences! Oh, well!

 

Or maybe Donnie will come out later and say he was "being sarcastic" about this vaccine being safe & effective like his bleach therapy!

 

And for some reason they are upset people don't believe in the vaccine when they are sure we have achieved "herd immunity"

already! What's it about holding contradictory ideas in your head?

We all delegate to third parties for many aspects of decision making and, as a result, our lives are way more enjoyable. A key aspect is trust.

The anti-vaxxer movement has been growing significantly and the major underlying issue is decaying trust. One way to re-build the trust would be to maintain the integrity of the process and to improve, perhaps, the message. By 'injecting' undue political pressures into that process, there's the higher possibility that there will be issues with vaccine effectiveness and side effect profile, contributing to less trust. It can be some kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

When it becomes advantageous to undermine institutions (media, science etc), a growing group of people may turn away from to those institutions, because of self-fulfilling trust issues. Who do they turn to? They turn to tribal leaders. One can become lazy as tribal leaders have easy answers and it's another kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Gregmal]

Lol, the "usual suspects" who supported a guy because he undermined institutions now confused why we don't trust Trump and his CDC/FDA on a vaccine...so strange! Who could have seen this coming?? Maybe undermining trust in things like the "deep state" has negative consequences! Oh, well!

 

Or maybe Donnie will come out later and say he was "being sarcastic" about this vaccine being safe & effective like his bleach therapy!

 

And for some reason they are upset people don't believe in the vaccine when they are sure we have achieved "herd immunity"

already! What's it about holding contradictory ideas in your head?

 

Ha! No one is upset. Its quite hilariously amusing.

 

The "oh so serious" extinction level virus that we MUST! take every precaution against until we have a vaccine, EXCEPT! unless we want to protest/destroy property/shoot people/assault cops, now potentially has a vaccine and the tune changes as it always does. It can not be trusted! But if Biden wins it will be "the right thing to do"! and Joe will have "solved" the crisis.....Nobody wonders why the usual suspects always have the same stances when it comes to certain topics. I mean, hey, if you now all of a sudden dont trust Fauci, "the expert" everyone loved and claimed in the preceding months was a godsend, because you believe its "advantageous" to Trump....well, ok, dont get the vaccine... Keep doing whatever you've been doing since you have all the answers anyway.....you just might get dizzy and pass out as you chase your tail in circles. And dont walk into any goal posts...they might not be where you remembered them. You seem to move them a lot without knowing it.

[Dalal.Holdings]

"Extinction level threat" that I heard someone else once say about covid, but now I'm going to say you were the one who said it to discredit you! Classic! How's your work on the flat earth theory coming along?

 

My friend in the ER in SD told me the vaccine is a hoax, so it must be tru!

[DocSnowball]

We MUST listen to Fauci! He's the only expert we have!

 

If Fauci promotes getting the vaccine prior to November......Dont do it! Trump must be up to something....

 

 

Same "stuff" as always from the usual suspects.

 

It's sad if someone has a problem with Fauci after all the contributions he has made. Respect.

[muscleman]

We MUST listen to Fauci! He's the only expert we have!

 

If Fauci promotes getting the vaccine prior to November......Dont do it! Trump must be up to something....

 

 

Same "stuff" as always from the usual suspects.

 

It's sad if someone has a problem with Fauci after all the contributions he has made. Respect.

 

 

I don’t see why you think he has a problem with Fauci. His post shows he has a problem with how the left media is using Fauci

[DooDiligence]

“Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing.”

 

---

 

“The result of preaching totalitarian doctrines is to weaken the instinct by means of which free peoples know what is or is not dangerous.”

 

---

 

It's unfortunate that the words of Orwell are so true, now more than ever.

[Investor20]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/lack-of-vitamin-d-might-increase-risk-for-covid-19-university-of-chicago-researchers-find/ar-BB18GCXH

 

Patients with untreated vitamin D deficiencies were 77% more likely to test positive for COVID-19 as patients with sufficient levels of the vitamin, according to the research, which was published Thursday in the peer-reviewed journal JAMA Network Open.

 

....................................

 

My problem with Fauci is it took him a long time to acknowledge ventilation as an important part of mitigation respiratory transmission and also not talking about Vitamin D with regards to Covid 19.  77% reduction in infection is a big number.  In addition other articles I posted earlier suggest a strong effect of reduced severity of symptoms of Covid 19 with normal Vitamin D.  For example:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

[Cardboard]

"First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps."

 

+1

 

Their narrative is simply crazy. Just imagine if Trump wins another term... Are some going to hang themselves over true despair or they will just keep whining, yelling and screaming as they have been over the last 4 years?

 

Some talk about trust, institutions and approval process. If there is something I trust the least is unaccountable people, getting paid no matter what. Just like that so useful WHO who declared it a pandemic after lockdown was in force! And these are the ones who we should put our trust in for our lives?

 

I have a ton more trust for 20-30 large and respectable pharmaceutical companies all competing to deliver best product to consumers and who could get sued to the point of extinction if they screw up.

 

Cardboard

[Dalal.Holdings]

Painting the current system as corrupt, flawed beyond repair is a great way for a much worse leader to gain power. “Everyone else is a dirtbag too, so why not me!?”

[Cardboard]

Do you fit the mold regarding being part of that corrupt system?

[Liberty]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub

 

Abstract

Objective

The vitamin D endocrine system may have a variety of actions on cells and tissues involved in COVID-19 progression especially by decreasing the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. Calcifediol can rapidly increase serum 25OHD concentration. We therefore evaluated the effect of calcifediol treatment, on Intensive Care Unit Admission and Mortality rate among Spanish patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

 

Design

parallel pilot randomized open label, double-masked clinical trial.

 

Setting

university hospital setting (Reina Sofia University Hospital, Córdoba Spain.)

 

Participants

76 consecutive patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection, clinical picture of acute respiratory infection, confirmed by a radiographic pattern of viral pneumonia and by a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR with CURB65 severity scale (recommending hospital admission in case of total score > 1).

 

Procedures

All hospitalized patients received as best available therapy the same standard care, (per hospital protocol), of a combination of hydroxychloroquine (400 mg every 12 hours on the first day, and 200 mg every 12 hours for the following 5 days), azithromycin (500 mg orally for 5 days. Eligible patients were allocated at a 2 calcifediol:1 no calcifediol ratio through electronic randomization on the day of admission to take oral calcifediol (0.532 mg), or not. Patients in the calcifediol treatment group continued with oral calcifediol (0.266 mg) on day 3 and 7, and then weekly until discharge or ICU admission. Outcomes of effectiveness included rate of ICU admission and deaths.

 

Results

Of 50 patients treated with calcifediol, one required admission to the ICU (2%), while of 26 untreated patients, 13 required admission (50%) p value X2 Fischer test p < 0.001. Univariate Risk Estimate Odds Ratio for ICU in patients with Calcifediol treatment versus without Calcifediol treatment: 0.02 (95%CI 0.002-0.17). Multivariate Risk Estimate Odds Ratio for ICU in patients with Calcifediol treatment vs Without Calcifediol treatment ICU (adjusting by Hypertension and T2DM): 0.03 (95%CI: 0.003-0.25). Of the patients treated with calcifediol, none died, and all were discharged, without complications. The 13 patients not treated with calcifediol, who were not admitted to the ICU, were discharged. Of the 13 patients admitted to the ICU, two died and the remaining 11 were discharged.

 

Conclusion

Our pilot study demonstrated that administration of a high dose of Calcifediol or 25-hydroxyvitamin D, a main metabolite of vitamin D endocrine system, significantly reduced the need for ICU treatment of patients requiring hospitalization due to proven COVID-19. Calcifediol seems to be able to reduce severity of the disease, but larger trials with groups properly matched will be required to show a definitive answer.

[Cigarbutt]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/lack-of-vitamin-d-might-increase-risk-for-covid-19-university-of-chicago-researchers-find/ar-BB18GCXH

Patients with untreated vitamin D deficiencies were 77% more likely to test positive for COVID-19 as patients with sufficient levels of the vitamin, according to the research, which was published Thursday in the peer-reviewed journal JAMA Network Open.

....................................

My problem with Fauci is it took him a long time to acknowledge ventilation as an important part of mitigation respiratory transmission and also not talking about Vitamin D with regards to Covid 19. 77% reduction in infection is a big number.  In addition other articles I posted earlier suggest a strong effect of reduced severity of symptoms of Covid 19 with normal Vitamin D.  For example:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19

The mental connection between the two bolded parts appears to be a huge jump to conclusion.

The two links are interesting but offer only the beginning of the initial phase for a multi-stage thought process. The second link is quite anecdotal and observational and although limitations are mentioned, it suffers from the same fundamental flaws as the first link. In the first link (Dr. Meltzer is an interesting fellow), the good doctor appears to also stretch the validity and meaning of his conclusions although he timidly suggests that it's still early. In that Chicago study, the relative risk of being black (or at least non-white) is larger than the relative risk for vitamin D deficiency, at least from the data i was able to briefly look at. Why is this an issue? The underlying issue is that applying indiscriminately the logic suggested by the Chicago study, the reason why Black Americans caught more Covid and died more because of it, as well as poorer incomes, poorer education levels, higher crime rates etc would be "caused" by low vitamin D levels because of the convincing statistical correlation and vitamin D supplementation is the way to go. i get it that it's an interesting question but this issue should be handled with care.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/us/black-americans-hit-hardest-by-the-pandemic-feel-they-re-hurt-by-both-the-virus-and-inequities/ar-BB18H073?ocid=msedgntp

if you are in charge of devising a study about vitamin D and go to the pictured family above, they may get what you are getting at if well explained and trust could be maintained but they would probably wonder if you are getting the full picture.

Edit:

BTW, a useful way to produce cost-effective science is to try to kill theses early. An interesting project here would be to devise a study with a rigorous design and compare two populations, one in Chicago and one in New Orleans and to try to control for all critical variables apart from latitude.

...

Their narrative is simply crazy. Just imagine if Trump wins another term... Are some going to hang themselves over true despair or they will just keep whining, yelling and screaming as they have been over the last 4 years?

Some talk about trust, institutions and approval process. If there is something I trust the least is unaccountable people, getting paid no matter what. Just like that so useful WHO who declared it a pandemic after lockdown was in force! And these are the ones who we should put our trust in for our lives?

I have a ton more trust for 20-30 large and respectable pharmaceutical companies all competing to deliver best product to consumers and who could get sued to the point of extinction if they screw up.

Cardboard

This is interesting and may be a useful discussion if you remain Dr. Jekyll.

It's not a binary question. Even if i deeply questioned Dr. Meltzer's judgement above, one can learn from stuff he's written over the years about incentives in healthcare. He describes that the healthcare market (and that includes vaccine development) in the US (like elsewhere to various degrees) has been negatively impacted by the negative aspects of both the 'market' and the 'government' and has suggested, using other words, that two wrongs don't make a right. Opinion: both sides of the equation can be improved and both sides need to be "checked" and "balanced".

[Casey]

"First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps."

 

+1

 

Their narrative is simply crazy. Just imagine if Trump wins another term... Are some going to hang themselves over true despair or they will just keep whining, yelling and screaming as they have been over the last 4 years?

 

Some talk about trust, institutions and approval process. If there is something I trust the least is unaccountable people, getting paid no matter what. Just like that so useful WHO who declared it a pandemic after lockdown was in force! And these are the ones who we should put our trust in for our lives?

 

I have a ton more trust for 20-30 large and respectable pharmaceutical companies all competing to deliver best product to consumers and who could get sued to the point of extinction if they screw up.

 

Cardboard

 

Fascinating. For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey.

 

You don't think its a big deal? And then you've got Biden who is basically a moderate republican/centrist and won't run the country like a failed casino with his kids in charge. I don't get it lol

 

Not sure I have your unfettered trust of the pharmaceutical industry, but yes, I'm also very grateful we have a lot of really smart scientists and companies working on vaccines and treatments. It's amazing.

[cwericb]

"President Donald Trump on Thursday mocked Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden for wearing a face mask even as the US continues to lead the world in coronavirus cases, with more than 6 million infections.

 

Speaking to a largely mask-less crowd in Pennsylvania, Trump asked his supporters if they know "a man that likes a mask as much" as Biden.

"It gives him a feeling of security," the President said. "If I was a psychiatrist, I'd say this guy has some big issues." "

 

 

[Gregmal]

"President Donald Trump on Thursday mocked Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden for wearing a face mask even as the US continues to lead the world in coronavirus cases, with more than 6 million infections.

 

Speaking to a largely mask-less crowd in Pennsylvania, Trump asked his supporters if they know "a man that likes a mask as much" as Biden.

"It gives him a feeling of security," the President said. "If I was a psychiatrist, I'd say this guy has some big issues." "

 

 

 

Hmmm....maybe the COBF doctor psychiatrist can weigh in?

[Dalal.Holdings]

We don’t need anyone to weigh in except for the sociopath’s enablers...They have truly made CoBF Great and objective!

 

Often wrong, never in doubt of course! Enjoy your “herd immunity”!

[KCLarkin]

Hmmm....maybe the COBF doctor psychiatrist can weigh in?

 

Doctors are famously anti-maskers.

https://www.google.com/search?q=doctor+covid&client=safari&rls=en&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj4oYzb0c_rAhXchXIEHa2hCD8Q_AUoAXoECAsQAw&biw=1920&bih=1067

 

The MAGA-trolls on this thread are clearly off their meds this morning.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

KC, The MAGA trolls resort to personal attacks like their savior when they are no longer able to defend their broken arguments. Just look at cigarbutt’s efforts to try to maintain objectivity in the face of it all.

 

The end result is it drives out the more nuanced, objective folks and you are left with a very “high quality” forum, of course! As I said—they've made CoBF Great Again—like America!

[DocSnowball]

We MUST listen to Fauci! He's the only expert we have!

 

If Fauci promotes getting the vaccine prior to November......Dont do it! Trump must be up to something....

 

 

Same "stuff" as always from the usual suspects.

 

It's sad if someone has a problem with Fauci after all the contributions he has made. Respect.

 

 

I don’t see why you think he has a problem with Fauci. His post shows he has a problem with how the left media is using Fauci

 

Thanks for pointing that out. My apologies for the error in perception.

As for both the left and right media, less said the better.

[Casey]

Warning to people who are still bullish on the market, I think the COVID situation is improving too fast and asset bubble is brewing too quickly and FED may be stopping the QE soon and I expect the market to build a major top here soon.

 

To me, your comment seems to imply that:

A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps,

B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or,

C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered.

 

Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation.

 

So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks!

 

B.

But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then.

Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb.

 

However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash.

I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day.

 

People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100%

 

Not a bad call here!!

[KCLarkin]

Warning to people who are still bullish on the market, I think the COVID situation is improving too fast and asset bubble is brewing too quickly and FED may be stopping the QE soon and I expect the market to build a major top here soon.

 

To me, your comment seems to imply that:

A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps,

B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or,

C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered.

 

Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation.

 

So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks!

 

B.

But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then.

Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb.

 

However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash.

I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day.

 

People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100%

 

Not a bad call here!!

 

Good call MM

 

[RichardGibbons]

Just look at cigarbutt’s efforts to try to maintain objectivity in the face of it all.

 

Yeah, cigarbutt is one of the most impressive posters on here in his determination to remain fair and intellectually honest. It's quite admirable. If only a third of people were like him, the world would be in a much better place.