Cigarbutt Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 ^Some very humbling questions have been raised. There are many definitions for herd immunity and one of them is to be able to return to as close as possible to 'normal' life. A functional-type of herd immunity can be attained with much lower levels of pure biologic immunity (social and behavioral substitutes for natural immunity). In the NY area, as an example of an area that was highly 'involved', mobility reports (and other related measures like restaurant reservations etc) still show a marked decrease in activity. It's still unclear if they have reached a level of immunity that would be sufficient to allow a return to normal life. Note: Basic biologic herd immunity is not an either/or phenomenon like pregnancy, it is a state that is gradually achieved. Recently, Ontario (the most populated province in Canada that was also significantly 'involved', including the older population segment), released results from a report (done in a way and 'adjusted' to be representative for the entire population). They reported an overall 1.1% of seroconversion (2.6% age above 80 and 0% age below 9). The % was higher in urban centers but numbers suggest that pure biologic herd immunity has not been achieved in Ontario, even if one allows for the possibility of cell-mediated immunity. Another consideration is the confusion about the definition of a first, second or subsequent waves. An argument can be made that the bimodal distribution actually being defined in the US is, in fact, only one wave, characterized primarily (there may be also seasonal, climate and other factors) by uneven and heterogeneous application and adoption of 'social' measures. Looking back in the history of epidemics (true also about the Spanish flu episode), it is vey humbling to realize that 'we' have not really figured out why subsequent waves occur. It may be a combination of intrinsic factors related to the virus itself and extrinsic factors (how humans react or adapt to it). It is humbling but at least, there are things that 'we' can influence and even, to some degree, control. Also, this virus has been unusual in the sense that, at the individual level, it needs to be fought upon initial contact (immunity) with strong resistance without triggering the excessive and out-of-control immune reaction (mutually assured destruction type) that has killed so many. Evolution has tried to moderate this delicate balance over a very long time and auto-immune disorders seem to be a compromise that is unlikely to be significantly improved overnight.
muscleman Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;)) This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen. If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already. Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX. So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August. Do you think the NYC already has it? I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC. The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower. I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November. And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that. Again, I will push back on your thesis that herd immunity is developing muscleman. The NY serosurveys were of people out and about and willing to get serosurvey testing done, not a random sample IMHO. Secondly, if pre-existing immunity were to play a large role, those who have lived longer, or been more exposed like those in nursing homes or healthcare work, would do better. But those are the populations heavily impacted in this first wave. Also, simply having T cell reactivity does not prove anything; again the elderly are dying in larger numbers and they would be the most likely to have pre-existing cross reactive immunity. On the contrary, young children who have never been exposed are doing relatively well. I acknowledge you have repeated your conviction, but the purpose of being on a message board at least for me is to be open to contrary views and clarify my thinking. There is an important distinction between cases going down due to control measures of social distancing (which need to be maintained until herd immunity develops) and true herd immunity (where life and business can resume as usual). Beyond the theoretical disconfirmation, your thesis has also not played out in any country so far. Places that reopen without proper social distancing are having recurrence of infections rather than displaying herd immunity. Also, since you have been following this in China, can you offer any reasoning why the virus did not spread as much within China outside Hubei province as in the rest of the world? I've been curious about that. Is it just fake data or is there more? How has their social distancing evolved now? My conviction of herd immunity comes from the research papers regarding T cell and antibodies %, and also from confirmation of the charts from various states and countries. Sweden has been open for a long time and the peak has passed. They have 10 million people and their peak was roughly below 2k per day. New York has 20 Million people and their peak was 10k a day but testing is far more widely done in the US than in other places. Which country are you referring to that reopened and now having a second wave? I'd like to take a look. If the first wave peak is too small relative to their population then of course they'll have the 2nd wave when they reopen. But if the first wave peak is high enough like New York, there should not be a second wave because herd immunity has been achieved. That's my theory. Please let me know which country you are looking at. I would like to take a look. Regarding China..... There are many things that were implemented that are simply illegal to do in other countries. 1. They have mobile apps that trace everyone' interactions. They initially start as green but if you have close contact with a red (infected), your status turns yellow and you have to be tested. This is a big privacy concern that is impossible to implement in the US. If you don't have this mobile app in China, you can't take any buses or trains or do any other basic things. 2. Some towns have crazy policies to use cement or steel to seal the resident's door if the resident is infected. They'll deliver food daily but the resident is locked at home. And sometimes they forgot to deliver food and the resident's whole family starved to death. 3. Some towns with high infections rates would found out that overnight, their public road going out of the town was rigged up by other towns, and they couldn't go out anymore. 4. They jacked up the airline ticket back to China from foreign countries to something like $10000 economy class. This makes it very hard to get back to China for these Chinese citizens, which also some kind of way to slow down infection.
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Highly revealing interview of the guy leading America who grossly mismanaged the pandemic and continues to exhibit denial and mislead about its significance all the way in August 2020. His ability to cover up the deaths as percent of population is staggering... This one will be shown in history classes of the future where kids will wonder wtf his supporters were thinking... https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html
DocSnowball Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Thanks for sharing in more detail Muscleman. Will look again at the info on different countries and states within countries as well with an open mind.
Liberty Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/04/americas/brazil-us-hydroxychloroquine-doses-intl/index.html The Trump administration's donation of 2 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to Brazil -- one of a handful of countries that still recommend the drug for Covid-19 -- has been mostly untouched since arrival, Brazilian officials have told CNN. Vast quantities of the pills are still sitting in storage in the Brazilian megacity of São Paulo, and one former health minister believes they may eventually have to be destroyed.
muscleman Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Thanks for sharing in more detail Muscleman. Will look again at the info on different countries and states within countries as well with an open mind. You are welcome. I think the whole point of this thread is to exchange information and facts, instead of bias. I totally agree on that. :)
LC Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Highly revealing interview of the guy leading America who grossly mismanaged the pandemic and continues to exhibit denial and mislead about its significance all the way in August 2020. His ability to cover up the deaths as percent of population is staggering... This one will be shown in history classes of the future where kids will wonder wtf his supporters were thinking... https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC.
muscleman Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Highly revealing interview of the guy leading America who grossly mismanaged the pandemic and continues to exhibit denial and mislead about its significance all the way in August 2020. His ability to cover up the deaths as percent of population is staggering... This one will be shown in history classes of the future where kids will wonder wtf his supporters were thinking... https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. We live in alternative world these days. ::) What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this.
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Highly revealing interview of the guy leading America who grossly mismanaged the pandemic and continues to exhibit denial and mislead about its significance all the way in August 2020. His ability to cover up the deaths as percent of population is staggering... This one will be shown in history classes of the future where kids will wonder wtf his supporters were thinking... https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. Here is the specific clip. He is misleading and trying to cover up on the significance of U.S. deaths as proportion of population compared to other countries. Keep in mind that this is the sitting President of the United States (I know, it’s hard). This interview will be in the national archives some day. Muscle, sorry but that conspiracy theory about gunshot deaths being labeled as covid deaths in NY is dangerous hogwash. You can look at excess deaths too to see more people are dying y-o-y. I’m not going to waste more time addressing nonsense conspiracy theories...
Gregmal Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 That would certainly explain the NY/NJ area death rates. And also explain why so many with obvious biases fell for it and assumed the rest of the country would follow. And also why the narrative has shifted from "see I was RIGHT, absolute number of cases and deaths rose!", when a month or two ago it was "FL and those states will be worse than NY"....
doc75 Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Highly revealing interview of the guy leading America who grossly mismanaged the pandemic and continues to exhibit denial and mislead about its significance all the way in August 2020. His ability to cover up the deaths as percent of population is staggering... This one will be shown in history classes of the future where kids will wonder wtf his supporters were thinking... https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. We live in alternative world these days. ::) What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this. Wow. "Even including gun shot death" takes this to a whole new level! https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 LOL! Oh boy the brilliant minds of CoBF now want to weigh in on conspiracy theories of gunshots being labeled as covid deaths in NY “from my friend in the ER in San Diego” Often wrong, never in doubt! BAHHAAHAH
LC Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Highly revealing interview of the guy leading America who grossly mismanaged the pandemic and continues to exhibit denial and mislead about its significance all the way in August 2020. His ability to cover up the deaths as percent of population is staggering... This one will be shown in history classes of the future where kids will wonder wtf his supporters were thinking... https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. We live in alternative world these days. ::) What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this. I am not talking about cause of death, I am talking about number of deaths (used to determine excess mortality statistics which in my opinion are the best indicator of COVID's impact.) Is there any evidence of manipulation in the absolute number of all-cause deaths being reported, is my question.
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Trust doctors who risked their lives and worked their asses off in the Trenches in NY hospitals? Nah, they’d rather trust this guy: Lemmings!
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Highly revealing interview of the guy leading America who grossly mismanaged the pandemic and continues to exhibit denial and mislead about its significance all the way in August 2020. His ability to cover up the deaths as percent of population is staggering... This one will be shown in history classes of the future where kids will wonder wtf his supporters were thinking... https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. We live in alternative world these days. ::) What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this. I am not talking about cause of death, I am talking about number of deaths (used to determine excess mortality statistics which in my opinion are the best indicator of COVID's impact.) Is there any evidence of manipulation in the absolute number of all-cause deaths being reported, is my question. I responded to your post. In the Axios interview, Trump attempts to hide the fact that U.S. covid deaths as percent of population is an outlier compared to other countries by deflecting to irrelevant stats and data (similar to what goes on here). The Axios interviewer was not having it unfortunately for him. The clip:
LC Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Ah sorry - I missed your post. I see, you are referring to Trump using "Deaths as a % of Positive Cases" compares to "Deaths as a % of Population". I agree, Trump's statistic is deceitful.
Dalal.Holdings Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Ah sorry - I missed your post. I see, you are referring to Trump using "Deaths as a % of Positive Cases" compares to "Deaths as a % of Population". I agree, Trump's statistic is deceitful. It’s easy to deceive some people it seems. He also tried to brush aside that deaths are going up again by saying “they’re not as high as they were”. My AMZN stock is below its all time high, must be a terrible performer! His antics clearly work well on some people. After all, if you are willing to believe NY docs put covid as death cause on gunshot patients, Trump’s antics will work very well on you...It’s a self selective group that will lead us to our doom.
Gregmal Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 LOL captain go to cash during the crash and sit on it through the entire rally now back at with it with his "if you look at it like this! I was still right" rhetoric. When you spend your time looking at all the wrong things its easy to be blindsided. Its telling that even now he/she/they chooses to attack even Muscleman, who's been amongst the most balanced contributors the entire time. Amazing what gets triggered when the info conflicts with the agenda!
DocSnowball Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Thanks for sharing in more detail Muscleman. Will look again at the info on different countries and states within countries as well with an open mind. You are welcome. I think the whole point of this thread is to exchange information and facts, instead of bias. I totally agree on that. :) Trying to graph a linear curve of total deaths/million and log curves of daily deaths per million population - better done on your own device so you can highlight each country at a time. I'm attaching a snapshot from my screen. Per CDC total deaths per million for NYC is ~2800/M; NJ 1780/M. Comparatively, each of these countries on the graph is is 680/M or lower. India is less than 50/M (certainly there could be virus strain effects or reporting issues rather than just the host immunity). We do know that NYC went through intensive social distancing after initial spread, rather than deaths ceasing from achieving herd immunity, so I doubt the death rate was maxed out until "herd immunity" was reached. You are correct that Sweden death rates flattened - however there could have been mobility reductions there as well; people do behave differently than what governments ask them to. Also trying to compare log rates of daily deaths/Million. Countries with lesser mobility reductions could include Brazil, Sweden and US, as compared w Europe or Asia. Here Brazil and US still have a log curve above 1 which tells us it is too early to predict max deaths here. Sweden however did have a log curve reduction in the daily deaths which I cannot explain. My take after looking at these is it is too hard to tell if there is true herd immunity, and likely not there, given that countries with lower mobility restrictions like Brazil and US have ongoing deaths with a per million death toll nowhere near even the NYC death rates. Apart from Sweden, the rest are not supporting the herd immunity thesis. Also, as long as large swaths of vulnerable populations remain, businesses and daily life will continue to be impacted and thus social distancing will need to continue. There is one thing that is not supporting my viewpoint. Nowhere has the healthcare system been overwhelmed twice. That would be a true second wave, which has not happened anywhere. That would be clear evidence of herd immunity not being present. Economically, I think Governments will keep opening up until that happens, they almost have no choice as financial life support will run out. I hope we never find out and you're right :) https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths https://www.timeout.com/news/new-tracking-data-shows-which-countries-and-cities-are-social-distancing-the-most-040920 https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases
Gregmal Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Quote Graham, buy RobinHood. Go get em champ! EDIT: Oh yea I forgot! I dont respond to certain people but I respond EVERY TIME! LOL Speaking of Jokers...
muscleman Posted August 4, 2020 Posted August 4, 2020 Thanks for sharing in more detail Muscleman. Will look again at the info on different countries and states within countries as well with an open mind. You are welcome. I think the whole point of this thread is to exchange information and facts, instead of bias. I totally agree on that. :) Trying to graph a linear curve of total deaths/million and log curves of daily deaths per million population - better done on your own device so you can highlight each country at a time. I'm attaching a snapshot from my screen. Per CDC total deaths per million for NYC is ~2800/M; NJ 1780/M. Comparatively, each of these countries on the graph is is 680/M or lower. India is less than 50/M (certainly there could be virus strain effects or reporting issues rather than just the host immunity). We do know that NYC went through intensive social distancing after initial spread, rather than deaths ceasing from achieving herd immunity, so I doubt the death rate was maxed out until "herd immunity" was reached. You are correct that Sweden death rates flattened - however there could have been mobility reductions there as well; people do behave differently than what governments ask them to. Also trying to compare log rates of daily deaths/Million. Countries with lesser mobility reductions could include Brazil, Sweden and US, as compared w Europe or Asia. Here Brazil and US still have a log curve above 1 which tells us it is too early to predict max deaths here. Sweden however did have a log curve reduction in the daily deaths which I cannot explain. My take after looking at these is it is too hard to tell if there is true herd immunity, and likely not there, given that countries with lower mobility restrictions like Brazil and US have ongoing deaths with a per million death toll nowhere near even the NYC death rates. Apart from Sweden, the rest are not supporting the herd immunity thesis. Also, as long as large swaths of vulnerable populations remain, businesses and daily life will continue to be impacted and thus social distancing will need to continue. There is one thing that is not supporting my viewpoint. Nowhere has the healthcare system been overwhelmed twice. That would be a true second wave, which has not happened anywhere. That would be clear evidence of herd immunity not being present. Economically, I think Governments will keep opening up until that happens, they almost have no choice as financial life support will run out. I hope we never find out and you're right :) https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths https://www.timeout.com/news/new-tracking-data-shows-which-countries-and-cities-are-social-distancing-the-most-040920 https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases I believe the best way to know if the water is too cold is to stick the toes into the water and feel it. We had a massive protests throughout US in May, with crowds standing next to each other, with no masks. If NY and a few other states do not have herd immunity, they will definitely have the 2nd wave. I think comparing states to states is the best way to estimate herd immunity because if you do country by country, well, most other countries have not done as much testing as the US.
Liberty Posted August 5, 2020 Posted August 5, 2020 Dr. Fauci saying he's getting death threats, his daughters getting harassed, had to get security..
John Hjorth Posted August 5, 2020 Posted August 5, 2020 Dr. Fauci saying he's getting death threats, his daughters getting harassed, had to get security.. https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1291063550748893187?s=20 In that respect, USA isn't that much different from the rest of the world. [sorry to say - lunatics around just about everywhere, as of now & always] In a way, it comes with the paycheck.
cubsfan Posted August 5, 2020 Posted August 5, 2020 Highly revealing interview of the guy leading America who grossly mismanaged the pandemic and continues to exhibit denial and mislead about its significance all the way in August 2020. His ability to cover up the deaths as percent of population is staggering... This one will be shown in history classes of the future where kids will wonder wtf his supporters were thinking... https://www.axios.com/full-axios-hbo-interview-donald-trump-cd5a67e1-6ba1-46c8-bb3d-8717ab9f3cc5.html Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. We live in alternative world these days. ::) What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this. I have been told this by 2 doctors directly. One of them actually mentioned a figure, like $35,000 per patient.
samwise Posted August 6, 2020 Posted August 6, 2020 ] We live in alternative world these days. ::) What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this. I have been told this by 2 doctors directly. One of them actually mentioned a figure, like $35,000 per patient. So some death certificates are being mismarked in NY while reality is “normal”? Total deaths are also above normal. Is the state shooting those people and marking them as COVID deaths? If they are not shooting them, and everything is normal, then there are death certificates for people who are not actually dead? So these “undead” people are roaming the streets of New York, in apartments, houses, nursing homes etc? If the undead are everywhere now, is this the zombie apocalypse? Truly an alternative world.
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