ERICOPOLY Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 the Obama playbook of identity politics. Are you sore that he spoke out against racists? It never bothered me.
patience_and_focus Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-europe-lockdown-excess-deaths-recession/ "But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends." This is what I call crappy "data analysis". This person who wrote this bloomberg article will fail any data analysis 101 course. Here are just a couple of the many issues - (a) The article says - "But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends." Where the hell is correlation coefficient value? And the p-value? And the chart is NOT an X versus Y plot of stringency score versus deaths. The stringency score used for correlation was at what time (since stringency concept changes over time)? Is the correlation a time series auto-correlation or point correlation? A claim is made in the above sentence about "little correlation", but no numbers to back it up. (b) Here the article conveniently provides an X vs Y plot for severity of restrictions score vs economic activity and shows a trend line. Where the hell is correlation coefficient value? And the p-value? Just looking at that graph I can tell you that correlation for this will be crappy as well (both coefficient and p-value). The trend line is just smoke and mirrors. This is obfuscation 101 when someone posts a trend line but no numbers associated. Then of-course, there are numerous question like why certain countries in Europe were left out in the charts for this article etc. It requires a good journal paper level rigor, not this mess of an article. Seems to me that author had a theory in mind and simply massaged/ scrubbed the original source data to prove a point. The original data is here - https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker
Liberty Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 Is this a joke? I have criticized Trump plenty and am easily one of the more balanced here with regard to criticism and blame. What % of your postings are balanced? What about ERICOPOLY's? Up until you guys got some pushback it was basically just dozens of pages of you posting Trump bashing Twitter links and Eric and a few others following on with more complaining... But yea, continuously revert to the Obama playbook of identity politics. The "tribal thinkers" and whatnot. The playbook is old. It was not just yesterday where some where whining about phantom "personal attacks" but now? Oh look here... You guys make it too easy. Balanced and pushbacks have nothing to do with it. Things are either true and supported by evidence, or false and not supported by evidence. They make logical sense, or they don't. Reality isn't up to a vote or a committee and not every side is automatically equally to blame for everything all the time, not all scandals are equally bad, etc. If Trump's a corrupt narcissistic sociopath who's not very sharp and way over his head, the "balanced" thing to do is point it out, not to go 'well, he's half good and half bad like everybody else".
Liberty Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 the Obama playbook of identity politics. Are you sore that he spoke out against racists? It never bothered me. Trump is WAY WAY WAY more playing identity politics than Obama ever did, but somehow it doesn't seem to bother these guys. I wonder why?
Gregmal Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 Is this a joke? I have criticized Trump plenty and am easily one of the more balanced here with regard to criticism and blame. What % of your postings are balanced? What about ERICOPOLY's? Up until you guys got some pushback it was basically just dozens of pages of you posting Trump bashing Twitter links and Eric and a few others following on with more complaining... But yea, continuously revert to the Obama playbook of identity politics. The "tribal thinkers" and whatnot. The playbook is old. It was not just yesterday where some where whining about phantom "personal attacks" but now? Oh look here... You guys make it too easy. Balanced and pushbacks have nothing to do with it. Things are either true and supported by evidence, or false and not supported by evidence. They make logical sense, or they don't. Reality isn't up to a vote or a committee and not every side is automatically equally to blame for everything all the time, not all scandals are equally bad, etc. If Trump's a corrupt narcissistic sociopath who's not very sharp and way over his head, the "balanced" thing to do is point it out, not to go 'well, he's half good and half bad like everybody else". Whether we agree on this or not, this is an opinion. Making it your personal duty to gather every possible piece of information or some random jerk offs opinion which supports something that YOU believe, and scream it from the mountaintops is only indicative of a bias. Pretty easy exercise to determine a bias or agenda. Take a subject. Then find out how a company/person is covering it. Break down coverage into 2 categories. Opinion and Fact. Then 3 sub categories. Positive, Neutral, Negative. From there you will over time find a bias. Where do your Trump related postings fall?
Peregrine Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 I hate Trump in that intentionally or unintentionally he has politicized everything. Even discourse on the coronavirus has devolved along strict partisan lines. Makes discussing policy with a balanced and objective mindset basically impossible. If you even question the rationale about the lockdowns, you're immediately called a Trump-lover by many on the left - even if you yourself identify more with the left.
JSArbitrage Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-coronavirus-mainly-spreads-through-persontoperson-contact-and-does-not-spread-easily-on-contaminated-surfaces-153317029.html CDC: Coronavirus mainly spreads through person-to-person contact and 'does not spread easily' on contaminated surfaces “Based on the epidemiology, we know that the main way this virus is infecting people is from direct contact with other infected people,” Adalja says. “Contaminated surfaces play some role, but it’s likely much smaller.” It also makes sense, too, he says: “This is a respiratory virus, and respiratory viruses largely spread through breathing in infected respiratory droplets.” The person to person contact can be minimized by not hugging, kissing, hand shaking, etc. The respiratory droplets breathing can be reduced by masks, giving safe distance and just being outside. All these can be done without shutting people in their homes. In Japan, the law wont let the government mandate shelter in place. So the government there had to request people to follow guidelines, and shut down schools. But still they could not mandate kids not to play outside. People who could afford to shut their shops did. People who couldnt afford to shut down ran their businesses with safeguards. That is a much better way to treat your citizens. But above two reasons given in the article for transmission, person-person contact, droplets can be controlled while working. https://time.com/5830612/japan-coronavirus-golden-week/ Why Many Japanese People Are Ignoring Their Government’s Pleas to Stay Home During a Major Holiday Break "Legally, the state of emergency can only involve requests for compliance. Violators face no penalties. There are few incentives to close shops." You actually think us Americans were mistreated? Was not sitting in restaurants and going to large gatherings too much to bear? The entitlement I've seen from my American brethren is shocking. Not willing to give up the smallest inconveniences to prevent mass death. More deaths in 2 months than the entire Vietnam War (and closing in on WWI) but wasn't allowed to sit at an AMC and eat popcorn. My belief in my fellow Americans has been severely damaged in this order. This is not the country that put a man on the moon anymore.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 the Obama playbook of identity politics. Are you sore that he spoke out against racists? It never bothered me. Trump is WAY WAY WAY more playing identity politics than Obama ever did, but somehow it doesn't seem to bother these guys. I wonder why? Gregmal repeatedly says that Obama created identity politics, but the Civil Rights movement and Feminists movements? Never heard of them. Remember Gregmal said he doesn't want a Trans person using the bathroom his daughter uses. Obama struck a nerve with GregMal, how dare Obama call him out for intolerance? That's what he is all about.
cwericb Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 Today marked a new record high of COVID-19 cases reported in a day worldwide.
Gregmal Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 I guess my game is "bad is bad". That's not it, but you're about to reveal what your game is. Not "when my guy does it we ignore it, when the Republican does it we foam at the mouth". Dont worry, you're winning that one. You voted for a guy who championed the game of "you disagree with me because you're racist" and now bitch and moan about the guy who says all journalists are lying scum.... and worse, you cant even see the common element. And there it is, that's your game. You make personal attacks instead of debate points. Smear. A day later.... the Obama playbook of identity politics. Are you sore that he spoke out against racists? It never bothered me. Trump is WAY WAY WAY more playing identity politics than Obama ever did, but somehow it doesn't seem to bother these guys. I wonder why? Gregmal repeatedly says that Obama created identity politics, but the Civil Rights movement and Feminists movements? Never heard of them. Remember Gregmal said he doesn't want a Trans person using the bathroom his daughter uses. Obama struck a nerve with GregMal, how dare Obama call him out for intolerance? That's what he is all about. LOL. Ideologically so hypocritical and warped, one day it s baselessly "your game is personal insults" and then the next its....wait for it... lob personal insults. This is the left. Like the previous poster said, I hate Trump in that intentionally or unintentionally he has politicized everything. Even discourse on the coronavirus has devolved along strict partisan lines. Makes discussing policy with a balanced and objective mindset basically impossible. If you even question the rationale about the lockdowns, you're immediately called a Trump-lover by many on the left - even if you yourself identify more with the left.
rb Posted May 20, 2020 Posted May 20, 2020 You actually think us Americans were mistreated? Was not sitting in restaurants and going to large gatherings too much to bear? The entitlement I've seen from my American brethren is shocking. Not willing to give up the smallest inconveniences to prevent mass death. More deaths in 2 months than the entire Vietnam War (and closing in on WWI) but wasn't allowed to sit at an AMC and eat popcorn. My belief in my fellow Americans has been severely damaged in this order. This is not the country that put a man on the moon anymore. I was actually thinking about this for a while. Something to do with lack of knowledge of adversity in recent generations. I don't mean Millennials, I mean baby boom and after. Before you used to have a lot of adversity. So you were ready for it and ready to deal with it. Your children will die on a sort of regular basis - vaccines changed that (now we have anti- vaxers). Wars would happen with some frequency. Those were real wars. If you were an able bodied man you had a fair to decent chance you would go to war. Would sit in some shithole and had a good chance something bad would happen to you - bullet in the ass or worse. Now when you have a war is more theoretical "those other guys" will fight it and even them will do pretty well through it. But zero chance something bad will happen to you. The Great Depression is an interesting name. That was just the great one. There were other depressions before it not that far behind. When's the last time we had a depression? Now having to wear a mask while you shop at Costco has become a great adversity. Geez! We've become a bunch of fat, spoiled babies because a bunch of smart people worked really hard to make things easy and safe for us. Then the fat spoiled babies throw poop at the smart people because that's all they know how to do. Progress!
meiroy Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 You guys should listen to this: https://samharris.org/podcasts/201-may-1-2020/ Sam Harris, A Conversation with Yuval Noah Harari podcast.
cwericb Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 During WWII there were line ups at the recruiting offices. When the war with Iraq started there were some members of the reserve forces who were crying to get out, “We want out, we never thought we would have to actually go and fight”
cubsfan Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 the Obama playbook of identity politics. Are you sore that he spoke out against racists? It never bothered me. Trump is WAY WAY WAY more playing identity politics than Obama ever did, but somehow it doesn't seem to bother these guys. I wonder why? Of course, that is total bullshit. The whole Democratic Playbook and Agenda is identity politics. It's about victimization. Everybody is a victim that needs their group to be compensated or righted. Government is the only way to right those historical wrongs. Government will fix everything for these groups that have been disadvantage. The Democrats do NOT believe in meritocracy - they believe in racial quotas and affirmative action based on sex. Everyone becomes a "protected" class or group. Obama took that bullshit to a whole new level. Who's pushing slave reparations and nonsense like that? The Democratic playbook does not allow for hiring the "best" people or most qualified, but hiring based on "quotas" and total nonsense. Look at the corner these idiots painted themselves into with their own Presidential Primaries. They are left with 2 old white guys - Biden and Sanders. And they have a shit fit since their is no minority group or female representing them - now they are trying to jam a black female (Stacy Abrams) or Kamala Harris into the campaign since they look like idiots. Identity Politics drives ALL THEIR DECISIONS. Now they get to live with the consequences. It worked GREAT for Obama - but is a DISASTER for the future of PARTY. These guys never learn!
cwericb Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 "The Democratic playbook does not allow for hiring the "best" people or most qualified, but hiring based on "quotas" and total nonsense." As opposed to Trump hiring his family and buddies?
Investor20 Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-coronavirus-mainly-spreads-through-persontoperson-contact-and-does-not-spread-easily-on-contaminated-surfaces-153317029.html CDC: Coronavirus mainly spreads through person-to-person contact and 'does not spread easily' on contaminated surfaces “Based on the epidemiology, we know that the main way this virus is infecting people is from direct contact with other infected people,” Adalja says. “Contaminated surfaces play some role, but it’s likely much smaller.” It also makes sense, too, he says: “This is a respiratory virus, and respiratory viruses largely spread through breathing in infected respiratory droplets.” The person to person contact can be minimized by not hugging, kissing, hand shaking, etc. The respiratory droplets breathing can be reduced by masks, giving safe distance and just being outside. All these can be done without shutting people in their homes. In Japan, the law wont let the government mandate shelter in place. So the government there had to request people to follow guidelines, and shut down schools. But still they could not mandate kids not to play outside. People who could afford to shut their shops did. People who couldnt afford to shut down ran their businesses with safeguards. That is a much better way to treat your citizens. But above two reasons given in the article for transmission, person-person contact, droplets can be controlled while working. https://time.com/5830612/japan-coronavirus-golden-week/ Why Many Japanese People Are Ignoring Their Government’s Pleas to Stay Home During a Major Holiday Break "Legally, the state of emergency can only involve requests for compliance. Violators face no penalties. There are few incentives to close shops." You actually think us Americans were mistreated? Was not sitting in restaurants and going to large gatherings too much to bear? The entitlement I've seen from my American brethren is shocking. Not willing to give up the smallest inconveniences to prevent mass death. More deaths in 2 months than the entire Vietnam War (and closing in on WWI) but wasn't allowed to sit at an AMC and eat popcorn. My belief in my fellow Americans has been severely damaged in this order. This is not the country that put a man on the moon anymore. I am asking to follow the system that got least deaths. Japan had 6 per million deaths, while US had 287 and UK 526 (worldometer) There are two new antibody study results announced Bronx had 40% Covid exposure Stockholm had 7% exposure Because you accused me of being irresponsible, can you remind which place had lockdown and which didn't? Shelter in place mandates are very expensive lifewise (I am not talking money) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7 U.N. warns economic downturn could kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-suicides-drugs-alcohol-pandemic-75000/ Coronavirus pandemic may lead to 75,000 "deaths of despair" from suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, study says I believe above suicide estimate is only for US.
cubsfan Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 Good luck winning an argument with these loonies. They could care less about "collateral damage" if it doesn't show up in their models that have been so, so wrong.
LC Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 Today marked a new record high of COVID-19 cases reported in a day worldwide. This is interesting. Is this due to widespread testing or the virus spreading? Need to take measures of global testing capacity into account, but interesting nonetheless.
Investor20 Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 Good luck winning an argument with these loonies. They could care less about "collateral damage" if it doesn't show up in their models that have been so, so wrong. Its weird people fight for a system that got hundreds of deaths per million when a crowded, cold country with lot of old people managed 6 per million.
LC Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 @ Investor20: On Japan: https://www.tokyoreview.net/2020/05/time-to-give-japan-credit-for-its-covid-19-response/ Omi Shigeru, deputy head of the government panel tasked with coordinating Japan’s pandemic response, suggested a trio of reasons this week – all of which are prosaic and dully practical in nature rather than the “magic bullet” that some commentators may be hoping for. For instance, Japan has a generally good healthcare system that has managed to cope with the pandemic thus far (excluding some high-profile and serious exceptions which have highlighted problems like the lack of a centralized ambulance routing service). The country took cluster tracing and containment very seriously from a much earlier stage than western nations. Finally, despite the eye-rolling and anecdotes about office colleagues who don’t wash their hands, or train station toilets without soap, Japan had already-strong norms of hygiene and health – with widespread mask-wearing and use of hand sanitizer being reinforced by the country’s previous near-misses with epidemics like SARS. Sounds to me like (1) Japan was better prepared by having a more resilient healthcare system and (2) they took the situation much more seriously at the nascent stages. I know you'd like to copy Japan's response, but this would seem to require instituting a more socialized healthcare system, increase funding to federal disease groups (and staffing them with competent leaders), and go back in time to February to have Trump's original stance on coronavirus do a complete 180.
Investor20 Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 @ Investor20: On Japan: https://www.tokyoreview.net/2020/05/time-to-give-japan-credit-for-its-covid-19-response/ Omi Shigeru, deputy head of the government panel tasked with coordinating Japan’s pandemic response, suggested a trio of reasons this week – all of which are prosaic and dully practical in nature rather than the “magic bullet” that some commentators may be hoping for. For instance, Japan has a generally good healthcare system that has managed to cope with the pandemic thus far (excluding some high-profile and serious exceptions which have highlighted problems like the lack of a centralized ambulance routing service). The country took cluster tracing and containment very seriously from a much earlier stage than western nations. Finally, despite the eye-rolling and anecdotes about office colleagues who don’t wash their hands, or train station toilets without soap, Japan had already-strong norms of hygiene and health – with widespread mask-wearing and use of hand sanitizer being reinforced by the country’s previous near-misses with epidemics like SARS. Sounds to me like (1) Japan was better prepared by having a more resilient healthcare system and (2) they took the situation much more seriously at the nascent stages. I know you'd like to copy Japan's response, but this would seem to require instituting a more socialized healthcare system, increase funding to federal disease groups (and staffing them with competent leaders), and go back in time to February to have Trump's original stance on coronavirus do a complete 180. Japanese had very low testing. Japanese had very few hospitalizations. Japan did only 2021 tests/million. US did 42,680 tests/million. Japanese were only testing very sick to decide treatment plan upon hospitalization. So, I dont see your point about healthcare system when hospitalizations are very low in Japan. Socialized medicine is in Europe and that didnt help. Most European countries did worse than US in deaths/million for Covid. Yes Japanese took Coronavirus very seriously in January itself. Started manufacturing masks (not tests). Again, who pushed for lockdowns from the beginning. Please clarify.
LC Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 Japanese had very low testing. Japanese had very few hospitalizations. What is your point? Less testing does not mean people will get less sick. Japan did only 2021 tests/million. US did 42,680 tests/million. Japanese were only testing very sick to decide treatment plan upon hospitalization. So, I dont see your point about healthcare system when hospitalizations are very low in Japan. It's not my point, it's a quote from: Omi Shigeru, deputy head of the government panel tasked with coordinating Japan’s pandemic response. Yes Japanese took Coronavirus very seriously in January itself. Started manufacturing masks (not tests). Yes, they did. USA did not manufacture masks OR tests. Whose fault is that? Again, who pushed for lockdowns from the beginning. Please clarify. The Japanese PM closed schools on February 27, and began discussions to postpone the Olympics on Mar 3. On April 7 a state of emergency was declared, and was expanded to the entire country a week later. It was just lifted last week for half the country. So...Japan?
meiroy Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 You actually think us Americans were mistreated? Was not sitting in restaurants and going to large gatherings too much to bear? The entitlement I've seen from my American brethren is shocking. Not willing to give up the smallest inconveniences to prevent mass death. More deaths in 2 months than the entire Vietnam War (and closing in on WWI) but wasn't allowed to sit at an AMC and eat popcorn. My belief in my fellow Americans has been severely damaged in this order. This is not the country that put a man on the moon anymore. I was actually thinking about this for a while. Something to do with lack of knowledge of adversity in recent generations. I don't mean Millennials, I mean baby boom and after. Before you used to have a lot of adversity. So you were ready for it and ready to deal with it. Your children will die on a sort of regular basis - vaccines changed that (now we have anti- vaxers). Wars would happen with some frequency. Those were real wars. If you were an able bodied man you had a fair to decent chance you would go to war. Would sit in some shithole and had a good chance something bad would happen to you - bullet in the ass or worse. Now when you have a war is more theoretical "those other guys" will fight it and even them will do pretty well through it. But zero chance something bad will happen to you. The Great Depression is an interesting name. That was just the great one. There were other depressions before it not that far behind. When's the last time we had a depression? Now having to wear a mask while you shop at Costco has become a great adversity. Geez! We've become a bunch of fat, spoiled babies because a bunch of smart people worked really hard to make things easy and safe for us. Then the fat spoiled babies throw poop at the smart people because that's all they know how to do. Progress! "The Great Nap refers to the period of prosperity and relative calm that followed the conclusion of World War II in 1945 and has lasted into the new century. It has been a historical aberration in which Americans, in particular, have been able to live lives largely free of tyranny, disease, widespread suffering, or the need for communal sacrifice. Times have been good, and relatively little has been asked of us. Weinstein posits that the Great Nap has now ended and that the future holds the promise of widespread challenges and struggles not seen in generations."
Investor20 Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 Yes, they did. USA did not manufacture masks OR tests. Whose fault is that? The experts who said dont wear masks till a month back. You cannot change your guidelines and expect 350 million masks appear suddenly. Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese etc were ready with plans to make masks and started manufacturing in January. WHO still says dont wear masks if you are healthy and not taking care of a Covid patient. The experts till last month wanted tests and ventilators. Did you already forget? And administration made arrangements to have lot of tests and ventilators. The Japanese PM closed schools on February 27, and began discussions to postpone the Olympics on Mar 3. On April 7 a state of emergency was declared, and was expanded to the entire country a week later. It was just lifted last week for half the country. The Japanese emergency is a paper tiger. It had no legal penalties attached. So people who wanted to stay home and could afford to stay home did. People who couldn't or wanted to take the risk went out to work. People might have reduced unnecessary trips but they continued to go to work. Only 18 percent of people in Japan have stopped going to work due to the novel coronavirus, the lowest level in 26 countries and territories covered in a recent survey. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/04/826fe0930a43-only-18-of-japanese-stopped-going-to-work-due-to-covid-19-poll.html They left the school playgrounds open https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/08/national/playgrounds-open-state-emergency/#.XsZUndpR200 The government has decided to allow school playgrounds to be open during the emergency school shutdown amid the coronavirus epidemic, so children can ease stress built up from having to stay at home, it was learned Tuesday. And it is not good to argue from one data point. NY had more infection rate of people staying home than front line workers such as NYSP from antibody studies. The infection rate in Bronx is 40% while in Stockholm is 7% from antibody studies.
LC Posted May 21, 2020 Posted May 21, 2020 The administration had states fighting each other for masks and ventilators. The administration did not recommend masks to prevent a run on short supply and allow healthcare workers access. This also contributes to the NY statistic you reference. And it is not good to argue from one data point. Correct, but you are pointing to Japan when they are clearly the outlier.
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