Dalal.Holdings Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 Are people seriously suggesting that the lock down that happened in most advanced countries in the world to deal with the virus was a mistake because millions of people did not die (i.e. the projections were wrong)? Talk about revisionist history. Virus comes to US. No testing. It spreads and community transfer begins. Clusters form in Washington State and New York City. Very limited testing. Virus continues to spread. These 2 regions start seeding virus to all other states in US. Now limited testing. Virus numbers start to explode. ‘Experts’ explain that now that virus is seeded in all parts of the US it will double every 4-5 days. If nothing is done health care system will be overrun and death rate will skyrocket. By now the world has many examples of countries where the virus was allowed to cluster and spread with limited testing being done: Wuhan China, Iran and Northern Italy. The result was a health catastrophe. The only solution was to lock down the regions, and eventually the entire country. Health care systems were completely overwhelmed. Many people were dying because hospitals had no resources to care for them. If lock downs had not happened how many people would have died in Wuhan, Iran or Northern Italy? And the virus would have spread more quickly to the rest of the world. The outbreaks in Washington State and New York City provided frightening examples of what was coming to the US if nothing was done. Testing was still not available. So the US had one choice to avoid a health catastrophe. And that was to lock down the country. The fact that the US did not experience a health catastrophe (like other parts of the world) is due to the lock downs that were put in place. It has taken 4 weeks for the results of the lock downs to become apparent. To now suggest that lock downs were a waste of time is complete and utter BS. Re-read this thread and all the facts are there for those who care to look. When a country mismanages the virus it has one tool to get control back: lock down. ———————————— Here is what is important today: Has the US learned any lessons in the past 2 months? 1.) One big lesson is testing is the key to managing the virus until a vaccine is found. Massive numbers of tests are needed. They need to be prioritized. Results need to be provided within 24 hours. 2.) Contact tracing needs to be done for all people who test positive. An army of people will be needed for this. 3.) Quarantine: people who test positive need to be quarantined and supported as needed through this. Scott Gottleib says the earliest the US will be able to do the above in some capacity is the fall. The President has just stated that the federal government will not be providing leadership on solving the testing issue; it will be left up to the states. No leadership or coordination at the federal level. Not good. What this means is as the US opens back up it will be at high risk of more clusters forming which then re-seed the virus into many parts of the US. This means the risks are high that the US will be needing to do another lock down. If your health response to the virus is wrong you will kill your economy. If you get the health response right you can start to get your economy moving again. Great summary of the progress that has been made in this thread (though there are forces that insist we go backwards and rehash some older, largely defunct discussions). Funny that "socialist" state Sweden (whose numbers don't look that good and has very low density) is cherry picked. Coming up with notions alternative to Occam (and ignoring the pile of evidence on Occam's side) is hard work. Germany gets it. So did S Korea. We've flattened in the hard hit places in U.S. and I think it is time to strategically reopen them. I think it is going to take lots of testing, public masks, some form of contact tracing, etc. And I think some regions (due to governors) will excel over others (due largely to vacuum of leadership at the federal level).
RichardGibbons Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 New chart on adherance to mask wearing and RO. Fascinating. https://masks4all.co/ ever ask a barber if you needed a haircut? LOL, these guys don't sell masks. I know it's a bizarre suggestion, but, during a pandemic, you might want to consider the idea that some people may want to stop that pandemic for reasons other than profit.
Viking Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 As Sweden shows there is something in between total lockdown and nothing at all. Trump's plan isn't just a complete reopening and back to February precaution levels, e.g. no precautions. People will wear masks, wash their hands, avoid large gatherings. Hopefully that will be enough in areas with lower virus concentrations. You have to remember that there are human health costs to staying closed. Many medical procedures are being pushed off, people are not going in for cancer screenings to the same levels, mental health problems are surely going to increase, we need money to pay for medicine and medical procedures. Its not black and white. You have to find a balance and staying locked away until zero cases is ignoring these other costs. I agree that lock down is terrible. Economic costs are massive. And there are severe health costs. What this means is you need to get your health response to the virus right. Testing. Contact tracing. Quarantine. The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence is the US economy is likely screwed until a vaccine is developed.
DooDiligence Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 A timely quote from the 1985 shareholders letter, “More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.” - Woody Allen www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1985.html --- He's probably conflicted with regards to what he feels are obligations to both shareholders & employees, "A few shareholders have questioned the wisdom of remaining in the textile business which, over the longer term, is unlikely to produce returns on capital comparable to those available in many other businesses. Our reasons are several: (1) Our mills in both in New Bedford and Manchester among the largest employers in each town...(2) Management has also been energetic and straightforward in its approach to our textile problems...(3) With hard work and some imagination regarding manufacturing and marketing configurations, it seems reasonable that at least modest profits in the textile division can be achieved in the future." www.gurufocus.com/news/842584/whats-berkshire-hathaways-failure-can-tell-us-about-investing --- Here's a comprehensive visualization of his big wins & losses, to remind us that the Oracle is not infallible, but that he's managed to make a lot of lemonade despite the failures. www.visualcapitalist.com/warren-buffetts-biggest-wins-and-fails/ (This is part 4 of a really good series.) --- I sold all the BRK.B in my brokerage account for a small gain to marshal cash. I'm keeping the BRK.B position in my tax advantaged account, which is roughly double the size of the position I just sold. --- I'm not sure if this post adds ANY value to the discussion but it does help me to understand & tolerate his (apparent) inaction. I'm willing to place my faith in WEB persisting in order to meet the aforementioned obligations & maintain a legacy which historians will both laude & pick nits with for generations to come. P.S. I never liked the airline investments. --- edit: probably should've put this in the BRK section since the 1st quote was the only part that really applied to decisions made re: corona.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 so much stupidity. see https://www.wsj.com/articles/hydroxychloroquine-and-other-autoimmune-drugs-dont-fully-protect-against-coronavirus-early-data-suggest-11587222001?mod=hp_lead_pos11 plaquenil is prescribed to treat not prevent...tries to arrest over-attack by immune system, IL-6, causing pneumonia. as is z-pack prescribed in conjunction, as a senolytic. I dont know any hospital system prescribing plaq without zpack, or prescribing it as a prophylactic as opposed to a treatment.
matts Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer. Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas. The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive. I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense. how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days.
DooDiligence Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 I walk my area regularly & have been amazed by how much traffic there is & by how busy the boat launch has been. There's loads of people hanging out at the launch, parting & completely ignoring social distancing. All of the small locally owned businesses are open (as are the Winn Dixie & Publix). The Ace hardware parking lot is nearly full every time I walk past. I'm guessing that the majority of similarly sized communities are experiencing the same activity levels. People are going to do what they want regardless of potential hazards.
wescobrk Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer. Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas. The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive. I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense. how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days. Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first. I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away.
cobafdek Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 vacuum of leadership at the federal level The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence Should the President replace Fauci/Birx?
Gregmal Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 vacuum of leadership at the federal level The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence Should the President replace Fauci/Birx? I was clear all along I am not a believer that Trump deserves much credit or blame for most of this. However others disagreed. Despite really refusing to give numbers, and declaring a disaster was a certainty, and that it was all Trumps fault, surely you'd think they'd be heaping praise on him now that the totals they were either projecting or implying were giant fairytales, no? Nah...Of course they dont. They just change the story. Again.
tng Posted April 18, 2020 Posted April 18, 2020 I was clear all along I am not a believer that Trump deserves much credit or blame for most of this. However others disagreed. Despite really refusing to give numbers, and declaring a disaster was a certainty, and that it was all Trumps fault, surely you'd think they'd be heaping praise on him now that the totals they were either projecting or implying were giant fairytales, no? Nah...Of course they dont. They just change the story. Again. I think people are wishing it is Trump's fault because that means there actually is an obvious solution that will come out. I don't think anybody could have done much better or worse. I don't think anything could have been done at cities like New York that has large international travel and relies heavily on the subway system. The virus was likely seeded already before anybody knew about it and the large cities were screwed without draconian Wuhan style quarantines and nobody could have done that. The only obvious mistake I see is the absolute fiery conviction that western doctors had that civilians should not be masked. Even now, I think there is a lot of blind faith that testing and contact tracing will work. I think it is actually getting more and more likely that we will be forced into the herd immunity route whether we like it or not.
Viking Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 vacuum of leadership at the federal level The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence Should the President replace Fauci/Birx? At the end of the day the president owns the national response. If Fauci/Birx are providing bad advice then they should be replaced. If you watch 5 or more of Trump’s daily updates you will quickly realize who the problem is. Is that what a world class national response to a global pandemic looks like?
matts Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer. Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas. The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive. I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense. how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days. Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first. I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away. We will be better prepared for a second wave. Even a slightly mutated virus won't have a high enough infection rate if people practice social distancing and masks. If it mutates to be as deadly as ebola then we should all be selling stocks and buying canned goods and shotguns. But if it mutates slightly, we have a few months to change behaviors. The behavior of the average American, which we all agree has been among the slowest to adopt, has already changed so much and it only been what? 2 months. We can do a lot in the 3-4 months before a 2nd wave hits. I agree the equity markets are a bit frothy here, but this thread is about the trajectory of the virus. In the beginning, people were underestimating the virus and now people are underestimating the game-changer that is most people wearing masks and just being aware of the virus (keeping a distance, washing hands, surfaces). I see it every day. The chances of someone being infected are very small, and that's why the spread is so much lower in Asia and now starting to show in Europe.
Gregmal Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 "Then he turned his attention specifically to the media. “So look. If this insanity happens, again, news sources have to rein it in. Everyone knows corona is no walk in the park because you literally can’t walk in the park. But at some point the daily drumbeat of depression and terror veers into panic porn,” Maher continued. “Enough with the ‘life will never be the same’ headlines and stop showing us this,” at which point the screen displayed a common graphical rendering of coronavirus. Maher then said that anything “you magnify a thousand times” looks scary, and to illustrate that point he showed an extreme close-up of a pubic hair. Then he noted a recent Washington Post headline, ‘It Feels Like a War Zone,’ which included a photograph of a supermarket stocker unloading boxes in a store’s eggs and deli meats section. “This is not a war zone. This is a man with a box of eggs. And I’ve never seen a war zone with this much bacon,” Maher joked." “Two weeks ago, ‘Inside Edition’ said 76,000 in the world had died so some are making comparisons to the apocalypse. The apocalypse? Really? Because most of us are sitting at home smoking delivery weed and binge-watching a show about a gay zookeeper,” https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/bill-maher-media-calm-down-032951586.html Hilarious and true.
cobafdek Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 vacuum of leadership at the federal level The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence Should the President replace Fauci/Birx? At the end of the day the president owns the national response. If Fauci/Birx are providing bad advice then they should be replaced. If you watch 5 or more of Trump’s daily updates you will quickly realize who the problem is. Is that what a world class national response to a global pandemic looks like? ARE they providing bad advice?
Viking Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 Texas governor announced he wants to reopen around April 27th-May1st (in phases). This will be a good "test" case for the country. Great use of pun here as Texas doesn't have access to reliable testing. This will most likely result in hospitals beyond capacity in the summer causing Texas to close again in the summer. Maybe the market will decrease again once we see the results of Texas. The current market levels don't make a lot of sense to me. Yes, the latest drug from Gilead shows promise for those in the severe stage but it does nothing to limit the spread and it is far from conclusive. I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense. how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days. Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first. I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away. We will be better prepared for a second wave. Even a slightly mutated virus won't have a high enough infection rate if people practice social distancing and masks. If it mutates to be as deadly as ebola then we should all be selling stocks and buying canned goods and shotguns. But if it mutates slightly, we have a few months to change behaviors. The behavior of the average American, which we all agree has been among the slowest to adopt, has already changed so much and it only been what? 2 months. We can do a lot in the 3-4 months before a 2nd wave hits. I agree the equity markets are a bit frothy here, but this thread is about the trajectory of the virus. In the beginning, people were underestimating the virus and now people are underestimating the game-changer that is most people wearing masks and just being aware of the virus (keeping a distance, washing hands, surfaces). I see it every day. The chances of someone being infected are very small, and that's why the spread is so much lower in Asia and now starting to show in Europe. We are all trying to understand what the economy will look like in the coming months and quarters. It looks to me like April and first 2 weeks of May will be a write off. After that do we get a 60% economy for a month? And then 80% the second month and afterwards until a vaccine is developed in 12-18 months? Is the S&P 500 fairly valued today at 2,875 if we have a severe recession the next three months followed by the economy returns to 80% capacity afterwards until a vaccine is developed (mid to late 2021)?
Viking Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 vacuum of leadership at the federal level The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence Should the President replace Fauci/Birx? At the end of the day the president owns the national response. If Fauci/Birx are providing bad advice then they should be replaced. If you watch 5 or more of Trump’s daily updates you will quickly realize who the problem is. Is that what a world class national response to a global pandemic looks like? ARE they providing bad advice? The reason i suggested you watch the source material is so you can draw your own conclusion. If a person wants to get informed i find there is no better way :-)
cwericb Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 Kind of sums it up nicely: "The curve is flattening; we can lift restrictions = The parachute has slowed our fall enough; we can take it off now."
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 For the "nothing could be done anyway" and "please don't blame our leader" crowd: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-18/seoul-s-full-cafes-apple-store-lines-show-mass-testing-success Cafes bustled with customers, parks teemed with sunbathers, and the first Apple store to reopen outside China had lines snaking out the door as many South Koreans -- almost all wearing masks -- emerged from months of self-isolation. Initially one of the hardest-hit with the second-highest number of cases globally, South Korea has managed to curb the spread without taking measures that were too severe. It didn’t require businesses to close or restrict travel. While both the U.S. and South Korea confirmed their first virus cases around the same time in late January, the number of infections in the U.S. has swelled to more than 700,000 while Korea “flattened the curve” last month and cases have slowed to just over 10,000. It's ok, it only cost our economy trillions of dollars. No big deal. Let's not hold our federal gov't (CDC/FDA which botched testing and did not prepare back in January/Feb) accountable... Actually, let's put all the blame on the lesser guys in federal government/state/local leaders (don't they run the FDA/CDC?), but leave nothing for the guy at the top. We need to provide him the asymmetry he always gets from his followers: no downside, only upside. Zero skin in the game "I take no responsibility" POTUS.
cobafdek Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 For the "nothing could be done anyway" and "please don't blame our leader" crowd: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-18/seoul-s-full-cafes-apple-store-lines-show-mass-testing-success Cafes bustled with customers, parks teemed with sunbathers, and the first Apple store to reopen outside China had lines snaking out the door as many South Koreans -- almost all wearing masks -- emerged from months of self-isolation. Initially one of the hardest-hit with the second-highest number of cases globally, South Korea has managed to curb the spread without taking measures that were too severe. It didn’t require businesses to close or restrict travel. While both the U.S. and South Korea confirmed their first virus cases around the same time in late January, the number of infections in the U.S. has swelled to more than 700,000 while Korea “flattened the curve” last month and cases have slowed to just over 10,000. It's ok, it only cost our economy trillions of dollars. No big deal. Let's not hold our federal gov't (CDC/FDA which botched testing and did not prepare back in January/Feb) accountable... Actually, let's put all the blame on the lesser guys in federal government/state/local leaders (don't they run the FDA/CDC?), but leave nothing for the guy at the top. We need to provide him the asymmetry he always gets from his followers: no downside, only upside. Zero skin in the game "I take no responsibility" POTUS. Should the President fire Fauci/Birx?
UK Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-18/china-tests-thousands-to-calculate-true-spread-of-coronavirus?srnd=premium-europe
samwise Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense. how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days. Thanks for the news from Poland. Makes sense to me. The one and only lever we humans have currently is to control R0. At normal behaviour R0=2-3 and the cases in ICUs compound. Then to regain some control you lock people in and drop R0 much below 1 to reduce cases in ICUs. Then at a low case load you allow some economic functions, just enough to keep caseload constant. The first article below seems to indicate this is Sweden’s choice. They have reduced riders on transit by 60%, and a constant caseload entering ICUs. Interesting that their politicians can’t actually do much, it’s the health agency’s choice. The reopening in British Columbia seems to have a similar model. See article 2 below. Specifically the lines showing different growth rates in cases. It’s like steering a car. You find cases rising, then you clamp down hard until it drops. Then you open up a bit and test, trace isolate; allow some activity but not others (which is a political problem of equity). And so on with constant feedback. It’s just how everyone drives the car, or the fed watches the data. Rolling lockdowns as Kashkari said. Btw we can’t judge Sweden’s response purely by number of deaths, as article 3 below does. They have consciously chosen a position on the death-vs-economy trade off where there will be more deaths. They are arguing that this path is economically sustainable. So you also need to judge how much better the economy is. I haven’t found out yet how much better an economy they have bought themselves in the trade off. They also claim their path is more sustainable. We will see. I do agree that this is a marathon, not a sprint. How does it all end? Best case: vaccine in a year, or a cure in a few months. Base case: constant caseload, rolling lockdowns, 1% of the world population dies (80M) or whatever the true death rate is. Bad for the economy also. Worst case: virus mutates and we have several cycles like 1918. Article 1: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/9/21213472/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity-cases-death Article 2: see the chart et the end. Basically they are with different R0. https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-health-officials-say-some-covid-19-restrictions-could-be-lifted-in-mid-may-1.4901026 Article 3: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/swedish-coronavirus-no-lockdown-model-proves-lethal-by-hans-bergstrom-2020-04 Edit: I guess the next decision, if you accept the above, becomes exactly how do you get the right level of R0, to maintain caseload in ICUs and maximize the economy. Which places should shutdown : hairdressers, nail parlours or bars? Who should sacrifice for society and how do you compensate them? Or you let everyone make their own risk assessment. Do you compensate for operational leverage for e.g. in restaurants, or do you let those businesses go bankrupt. It’s hard to run a whole economy by diktat, as the communists discovered. So do you make a market in risk: everyone pays every time they go out somewhere (thus increasing R0), and use the funds to recruit more contact tracers. Who collects the money and how? Can you increase decrease R0 by increasing decreasing the fees. But this is a regressive tax for the poor. Well, unless we get a cure/vaccine pretty soon, we’ll be solving these problems.
Liberty Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 Good podcast, includes impact on younger people, possible permanent lung damage: https://overcast.fm/+PmW73DgEM
Gregmal Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 I was clear all along I am not a believer that Trump deserves much credit or blame for most of this. However others disagreed. Despite really refusing to give numbers, and declaring a disaster was a certainty, and that it was all Trumps fault, surely you'd think they'd be heaping praise on him now that the totals they were either projecting or implying were giant fairytales, no? Nah...Of course they dont. They just change the story. Again. I think people are wishing it is Trump's fault because that means there actually is an obvious solution that will come out. I don't think anybody could have done much better or worse. I don't think anything could have been done at cities like New York that has large international travel and relies heavily on the subway system. The virus was likely seeded already before anybody knew about it and the large cities were screwed without draconian Wuhan style quarantines and nobody could have done that. The only obvious mistake I see is the absolute fiery conviction that western doctors had that civilians should not be masked. Even now, I think there is a lot of blind faith that testing and contact tracing will work. I think it is actually getting more and more likely that we will be forced into the herd immunity route whether we like it or not. I think this is a great way of rationally describing much of this. The idiocy of lockdowns isn't in locking down areas where its needed, its doing so to areas that arent. Sure, NYC was obvious...but the knee jerk to just declare a statewide shut down? WTF do the economies or landscape of Manhattan and say, Oneonta, NY have in common other than, NY, on the postal address? Small businesses in areas like Oneonta are significantly more fragile and will take longer to recover from this(if they recover at all) than "supposed" small businesses who can afford to pay $6,000 a month to rent an 850 sq ft cockroach infested shitbox in the 100xx zip area. The lockdown was done in a very lazy and sloppy manner.
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