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Posted
16 hours ago, Gregmal said:

The manipulation of the energy and especially oil market is hilarious to me. In the $80-90s range they do everything to tank the price and it stuck way higher for longer than it probably should’ve. Now every effort to prop it up gets smoked and lower we go. Kinda interesting to wonder what things would look like if they just left it alone.


Extremely volatile initially and extremely good for speculators initially, but it would probably moderate and find a range like anything else.

Posted

Well that makes sense. APA was doing buybacks at a higher price and are now issues shares at a lower price... not exactly what shareholders like to see.

Posted (edited)

If you didn't think the Red Sea attacks were just business .... you have your answer. Iran is squeezing China for an additional USD 4-5/bbl on January deliveries; amid few alternatives, hostilities in the gulf, and Maersk again rerouting shipping around the Red Sea 😅 

 

And at the start of this month ... Saudi began discounting February deliveries, and China released a larger import quota than 'normal'. All else equal, Saudi crude starts displacing Iranian and Russian crude next month, and Russia/Iran/Angola fight over a shrinking market share. Of course; should a ship burn ... or processing facilities were to experience unintended 'downtime', the 'problem' is mitigated. 

 

Obviously, it would seem in most player's interest were the price to rise through January, and unintended 'downtime' to occur in February. Given that one only 'rents' o/g stocks, one doesn't own them ... a timely swing trade might be appropriate.

 

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Withholds-Oil-Deliveries-As-It-Seeks-Higher-Prices-from-China.html

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Maersk-Reroutes-Ships-Away-from-Red-Sea-after-Latest-Attack.html

 

May we all do well!

SD

Edited by SharperDingaan
Posted
On 1/4/2024 at 9:29 AM, Paarslaars said:

Well that makes sense. APA was doing buybacks at a higher price and are now issues shares at a lower price... not exactly what shareholders like to see.

Same than CPE though. To APA's defense, they did not pay a large premium and both Permian acreages fit well together. APA becomes more US centric in their asset base, which may have been the underlying reason for the merger. Unfortunately, it also dilutes their Suriname play, which I think is underappreciated.

Posted

Good discussion by Veriten this morning:

 

"This Is Like Quantum Mechanics: If You Think You Understand It, You Don’t” Featuring Dr. Lars Schernikau and Rob West

 

 Dr. Lars Schernikau, energy economist, entrepreneur, commodity trader, strategic advisor, and the author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy” AND Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy (TSE). Rob started TSE in 2019 and provides unique and thought-provoking analysis on energy transition research and technologies.

 

https://veriten.com/stream/cobt-212/

 

 

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

Excellent interview with CEO of MEG…

learned more about the Canadian sands ( which interest me being an SU shareholder)

Posted

The Biden administration is pausing a decision on whether to approve what would be the largest natural gas export terminal in the United States, a delay that could stretch past the November election and spell trouble for that project and 16 other proposed terminals, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. ...

 

The move comes as Mr. Biden gears up for what is likely to be a contentious re-election campaign. He is courting climate voters, particularly the young activists who helped him win election in 2020 and who have been angered by his administration’s approval last year of the Willow project, an enormous oil drilling operation in Alaska.

 

It also comes as the United States leads the world in both liquefied natural gas exports and oil and gas production. The country has seven export terminals with five more already under construction.

The project in question, Calcasieu Pass 2, is among 17 additional terminals that have been proposed by the fossil fuel industry. ...

 

“This move would amount to a functional ban on new LNG export permits,” Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, said on the Senate floor Wednesday. “The administration’s war on affordable domestic energy has been bad news for American workers and consumers alike.”

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/24/climate/biden-lng-export-terminal-cp2.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Qk0.jvIM.QKolC5yqRJkA&smid=url-share

 

But stymying America’s LNG exports may also cede the market share to other nations, which would obviate the global environmental impact of blocking domestic LNG projects.

 

“It appears the administration may be putting a moratorium on the entire US LNG industry,” Shaylyn Hynes, spokeswoman for Venture Global, said in a statement. “Such an action would shock the global energy market, having the impact of an economic sanction, and send a devastating signal to our allies that they can no longer rely on the United States.”

 

https://www.gridbrief.com/p/white-house-pauses-louisiana-lng-decision-australian-mining-takes-beating

 

 

Posted (edited)

Climate impacts can’t be the real reason, because Europe is going to use the NG anyways (or has to stick with coal, which is far worse from a climate perspective), it’s just the question where they are going to get it from.

 

I suspect the real reason is that Biden wants to be NG prices low in the US to fight inflation or help the industry (lots of chemical industry in his home state Delaware benefiting from low NG prices). its not a good reason be sure mostly NG prices are high because of lack of pipeline infrastructure not the NG cost itself.

 

Anyways, I think the real reason is not the environment or emissions, Biden has this thing going on with energy costs and we all remember he wanted to keep the prices at the pump low last year, using the SPR. I think this is sort of the same thing and very shortsighted.

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted

When the NYT admits the reason:

 

The move comes as Mr. Biden gears up for what is likely to be a contentious re-election campaign. He is courting climate voters, particularly the young activists who helped him win election in 2020 and who have been angered by his administration’s approval last year of the Willow project, an enormous oil drilling operation in Alaska.

 

Why question it?

Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, james22 said:

LOL

 

This is the first time I heard about:

 

Quote

”Environment justice for all” ~POTUS

 

🤣

 

Quote

“One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.” ~Milton Friedman

 

Look at the results of Germany's ”environment justice for all”. WW3 and environmental disaster, ok, maybe not WW3, LOL.

Edited by formthirteen
Posted
14 hours ago, LC said:

This being an election year may be an influence as well.

Bingo.

 

Biden is not doing well with young voters, so my guess is that he feels he needs to do something.

Posted
14 hours ago, james22 said:

LOL

 

image.thumb.png.14e67ac144dd2789c648d7663ba0b89c.png

One thing Biden is similar to Xi is that both have no intelligence and is mostly influenced by different groups of ideologists around them. 

Posted

You might want to consider why the US wants the natty kept in the US.

The Ukraine has successfully begun targeting the Russian oil facilities, there are chronic labour shortages in large parts of Russia, Chinese banking facilities are being restricted, and Russia has a lot of stranded oil in the pacific that they have been unable to move.

 

Were someone to quietly give the Ukrainians the right weaponry to 'decommission' key parts of the Nordstrom gas collection network, there would be a lot of very happy people. Europe already has the gas in storage to manage the disruption, there's a surplus of the stuff, and the ME already has much of the new production coming on line. Most would react negatively were the US to ship whatever it could, versus keep it at home, and prices down because of it.    

 

Putin recently put feelers out to negotiate an end the war.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/putin-signals-washington-ready-talks-225000203.html

 

SD

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