Energy Sector

[influx]

8 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-defies-trump-and-tightens-its-grip-on-hormuz-01a4e32b?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

Looks like we now have cracks forming in Iran's ability to keep the Strait closed:

 

 

This looks like it could be the beginning of U.S. operations to pry the Strait open...

 

 

I would be careful taking Axios or western outlets (WSJ) at face value. What do we expect them to say? Admit damage?

 

[influx]

8 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

I would consider it successful if the U.S. achieves its key objective: removing Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon while keeping Gulf states' oil and gas assets intact and operating. Everything else is mostly noise.

 

The Strait is being bypassed by an increasing amount of oil lately and global producers are exploiting high prices by raising their own production. Iran is no longer attacking Gulf assets due to the ceasefire.

 

As to timeline, it's tough to say and I'm not sure it really matters. The longer the Strait remains closed, the more Gulf countries find & invent ways to bypass it (they already are). The longer it remains closed, the more other producers outside the region produce (they already are).

 

In other words, the longer the Strait remains closed, the weaker Iran's leverage over the Strait becomes. Meanwhile, the U.S. can continue its blockade of Iran indefinitely which would prove catastrophic for Iran's economy and cause irreversible damage to its wells.

 

Okay, you guys are bullish on the US strategy. Agree over the long-term but not so sure short to medium term because I am not so sure Iran is alone. The long-term outcome may be more path-dependent than we'd like to admit and may not be good. There is a sequence risk here. Let's watch

 

 

Thanks for engaging.

[influx]

10 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Not having nukes for a decade or two is worth some pain. If it takes a month or two, it would not surprise me -

 

 

That was JCPOA, it was in place, no?  

[Dalal.Holdings]

10 minutes ago, influx said:

 

I would be careful taking Axios or western outlets (WSJ) at face value. What do we expect them to say? Admit damage?

 

And you believe Iran? According to Iran, they hit a U.S. military ship today--absolutely zero evidence of that.

 

We know some U.S. ships have made it through  as the U.S. has provided a mine free route through the Strait to shippers. They've likely cleared that route of mines in recent weeks. And then today the U.S. blew 6 Iranian "fast" ships (likely laying mines) out of the water with some helicopters.

 

And Iran clearly got triggered and took it out on the UAE because they can't hit anything American successfully...I think it's likely UAE enters this conflict if this continues...they might bring along a bunch of Arab states. I don't think Iran lasts in that scenario.

 

Seems also that Arab state air defenses have gotten much stronger and we know part of the reason is that Israel provided Iron Dome system to UAE:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/01/world/middleeast/israel-emirates-iron-dome.html

 

 

 

Edited May 5 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Sounds like Blockade is working...Iran has to surrender its nuclear ambitions and back off from the Strait and this will all be over...up to the hardliners in Tehran. The blockade isn't too onerous for the U.S. and lots of oil is leaking around and now even through the Strait.

 

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, influx said:

 

That was JCPOA, it was in place, no?  

 

For sure!  

 

If you are dumb enough to trust the Iranians like President Obama did. I think those results are self evident - at least to me. 

 

But, regardless of what anyone thinks, all that matters NOW is what POTUS thinks, as he controls Iran's future for the next couple of years.  IMHO - that is a non-negotiable point for him.

[Dalal.Holdings]

21 minutes ago, influx said:

Something on the other end (ignore their hyperbolic words): 

https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/president-trump-thinks-the-us-can

LOL. Come on now this is absurd...these are the guys who would have advised other administrations into doing nothing.

 

Not surprising a podcast called "Switzerland" makes such foolish commentary about an armed conflict.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/urgent-maersk-says-subsidiarys-us-flagged-vehicle-carrier-transits-strait-hormuz-2026-05-04/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-04/maersk-vessel-exits-persian-gulf-under-us-military-escort

 

Quote

LOS ANGELES, May 4 (Reuters) - Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), opens new tab said the Alliance Fairfax, a U.S.-flagged vehicle ‌carrier operated by its Farrell Lines subsidiary, exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz accompanied by U.S. military assets on Monday.

American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command (Centcom) said ⁠on the social media site X on Monday.

 

 

 

 

 

Somehow I don't think Maersk is lying just to make Trump look good...

 

Quote

• The operator was “was contacted by the US military and offered the opportunity for the vessel to exit the Gulf under US military protection,” according to a spokesperson
• Vessel is operated by Farrell Lines Inc., a subsidiary of Maersk Line Limited
• Two US-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited the strait, US Central Command said earlier Monday in a post on X

 

Seems like the U.S. Navy has carved out a mine-free route through the Strait...let's get more ships leaking through!

 

Edited May 5 by Dalal.Holdings

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/urgent-maersk-says-subsidiarys-us-flagged-vehicle-carrier-transits-strait-hormuz-2026-05-04/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-04/maersk-vessel-exits-persian-gulf-under-us-military-escort

 

 

 

 

 

 

Somehow I don't think Maersk is lying just to make Trump look good...

 

 

Seems like the U.S. Navy has carved out a mine-free route through the Strait...let's get more ships leaking through!

 

 

 

Right - mine free path cleared along coast with Oman and is now open and available with escorts.

 

It just reported that 4 US ships exited today.

 

Iron Dome is now in place in the SOH.

 

Apaches, SeaHawk helicopters destroyed Iranian fast boats.  A-10's on call.

 

Multiple drone patrolling inside Iran near coast permanently to destroy Iranian drones & missile launches. 

 

US bombing campaign looks like it will start soon again.

[bizaro86]

I'm a bit fuzzy on why there would have been US flagged merchant ships there?

 

Aren't essentially all US flagged ships operating intra-US routes for Jones Act reasons? 

[Aurelius]

16 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

You might want to use the opportunities to lighten holdings this week  While the SOH may remain closed; once the number of transits starts rising ... crude prices are coming down.

 

SD 

@SharperDingaan What makes you certain we'll see a material change in the coming days?

Edited May 5 by Aurelius

[SharperDingaan]

3 hours ago, Aurelius said:

@SharperDingaan What makes you certain we'll see a material change in the coming days?

 

Under all the posturing, a lot more boats 'leak' through the SOH, and without incident.  Demonstrate that the trickle is both getting larger, and more reliable ......

 

SD

Edited May 5 by SharperDingaan

[Aurelius]

thanks

[influx]

On 5/5/2026 at 9:56 AM, Dalal.Holdings said:

And you believe Iran? According to Iran, they hit a U.S. military ship today--absolutely zero evidence of that.

 

I don't believe Iran nor USA. Why would I believe either one in a war situation  

I try to make sense of the whole thing (incentives, interests, etc) and make money

 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116524418935002706

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Norway’s massive sovereign wealth fund only going to get bigger while UK mired in economic stagnation…wonder why

[rogermunibond]

Energy security will mean more development of all types of energy that a country has sovereign control over.

 

I imagine the 2035 price of Brent crude will be below $50 barrel.

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Energy security will mean more development of all types of energy that a country has sovereign control over.

 

I imagine the 2035 price of Brent crude will be below $50 barrel.

 

I do hope we see a big swing back to nuclear.

[SharperDingaan]

28 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

I do hope we see a big swing back to nuclear.

 

Orange Boy may hate them, but we're going to see a lot more solar and wind in 2nd/3rd world countries that have to buy o/g from somewhere else. Simply because for them, they haven't got the money to pay; if you don't have coal or hydro, and you've burnt all your wood ... there ain't much left.

 

While Small Nuclear Reactors (SNR's) have obvious benefit; it is a very hard reach to see these things being used in conflict nations (Somalia, Congo, etc.) for fear of radioactive contamination via terrorist conversion into dirty bombs .... the same places where the energy need is often greatest. Most would expect that Iran's enriched uranium would be not be permitted for such purposes, and that Israel would correspondingly not tolerate SNR's in the region.

 

So.... SNR's in first/second nations only ... and only under adult supervision. Have to think that it takes a while,  and that while we're waiting ...  solar and wind become more established.

 

SD

Edited May 6 by SharperDingaan

[yesman182]

36 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Energy security will mean more development of all types of energy that a country has sovereign control over.

 

I imagine the 2035 price of Brent crude will be below $50 barrel.

if the lesson wasn't learned in the 70's, why will it be learned now? 

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Orange Boy may hate them, but we're going to see a lot more solar and wind in 2nd/3rd world countries that have to buy o/g from somewhere else. Simply because for them, they haven't got the money to pay; if you don't have coal or hydro, and you've burnt all your wood ... there ain't much left.

 

While Small Nuclear Reactors (SNR's) have obvious benefit; it is a very hard reach to see these things being used in conflict nations (Somalia, Congo, etc.) for fear of radioactive contamination via terrorist conversion into dirty bombs .... the same places where the energy need is often greatest. Most would expect that Iran's enriched uranium would be not be permitted for such purposes, and that Israel would correspondingly not tolerate SNR's in the region.

 

So.... SNR's in first/second nations only ... and only under adult supervision. Have to think that it takes a while,  and that while we're waiting ...  solar and wind become more established.

 

SD

 

More power to wind and solar if it can be done without bankrupting their countries. 

 

Good point on SNR's Sharper - I didn't quite get that point.

 

I'm all for alternative energy in the right situation.

[SharperDingaan]

30 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Good point on SNR's Sharper - I didn't quite get that point.

 

Every SNR runs on a lower grade nuclear 'fuel'. Take that fuel out, grind it into a fine radioactive dust, put in the nose cone of a conventional ballistic missile, fire it as an air burst over a selected target; and it's another Hiroshima, without the cloud.

 

Iron Domes ineffective, as the missile explodes over its target anyway; delivery via ballistic missile, or a Hezbollah rocket .... the result is the same. Therefore, not going to happen in the Gulf unless SNR's are under Russian/Chinese/European/US adult supervision. Same approach in conflict zones, elsewhere in the world.

 

Not to say that the SNR's are not a very good solution (they are); but wind/solar are a lot cheaper, less 'complicated' ... and a lot lower maintenance.

 

SD

Edited May 6 by SharperDingaan

[cubsfan]

^^ You are indeed a wealth of energy knowledge!

 

Excellent explanation.

[SharperDingaan]

If you have not already done so; you might want to use the current WTI/Brent sell off, to position yourself ahead of pending Q1 earnings reports. Terrible thing to waste .

 

SD

[Dalal.Holdings]

12 hours ago, influx said:

 

I don't believe Iran nor USA. Why would I believe either one in a war situation  

I try to make sense of the whole thing (incentives, interests, etc) and make money

 

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116524418935002706

One is an authoritarian regime that crushes protestors by the tens of thousands...the other is some former Real Estate/Casino guy...there is a difference in how they b.s. and it's important to distinguish between the two.

 

However, it would be highly unprecedented for Centcom/Dan Caine to lie about military details (like whether a U.S. ship was hit, etc)--the Congress in the end is the overseer. However, the IRGC/Iranian military routinely lies to further its propaganda...if you want to be rational, you have to acknowledge the differences there.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Now over $2.2 Trillion... there are only ~5.6 million people in Norway so this comes out to nearly $400,000 for every man, woman, and child in Norway.

 

Compare what Norway has created in economic benefits for its citizens to the UK and Germany...

 

The UK might need an IMF bailout soon...