Energy Sector

[Blake Hampton]

The most dangerous thing you could probably do in a war is underestimate your enemy. And after doing a bit of research, there is almost zero reason for enriching Uranium to that level if not to make a bomb. Having a renowned Nuclear physicist tell you that 60% enrichment is a "hair's breadth" away from the level needed for a nuclear weapon is scary.

 

I think Israel is acting appropriately.

 

Edited June 21, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Sweet]

On 6/16/2025 at 8:23 PM, bizaro86 said:

 

I live in Calgary, the biggest/most economically important city in Alberta. I was at a backyard barbeque recently and someone brought it up. In an upper-middle-class/educated crowd in Calgary it seemed like about 10-20% were strongly in favour of leaving, 30% were open to the idea but had concerns, and 50% were opposed to various degrees. If you'd have asked me 3 months ago I'd have said Alberta separation was a fringe idea. Now I'd say it's becoming mainstream. It definitely isn't a majority opinion but it's becoming more common. Even a year ago people would have looked at you like you promoting the flat earth party if you brought it up, but now its treated as an item worthy of serious consideration by people. This wasn't a far-right/rural group of people either, which is where the idea almost certainly has the most support. 

 

I'm personally very concerned about it. 

I think the breakup of Canada would be a terrible idea, but the fact that it is becoming more popular shows that governments just can’t keep pushing their agenda and not expect push back.  At some point people just throw their hands up and think ‘fine, we are better off on our own’.

[Blake Hampton]

I’d bet oil’s down 1% on Monday open.

[Spekulatius]

Did the quick lesson lesson in nuclear science also include that it takes more than enriched Uranium to make a nuclear bomb ? - A nuclear bomb needs ignition device as well as a delivery mechanism. Both are not that simple. Having enough Uranium does not mean that they have the means to ignite it or it could just become a very dirty or inefficient bomb  if it does not work properly. Iran has hypersonic rockets but it’s not clear thy habe the means to put a nuclear warhead on it, if they had one.

[sleepydragon]

3 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

I’d bet oil’s down 1% on Monday open.

the odds of the strait of hormuz being closed is now at 60% on polymarket. Iran will retaliate, and any form of that will drive oil higher.

[Grenville]

Start a war with Iran, the chances of all kind of stuff in the Middle East go up…

[rossef2]

13 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

The most dangerous thing you could probably do in a war is underestimate your enemy. And after doing a bit of research, there is almost zero reason for enriching Uranium to that level if not to make a bomb. Having a renowned Nuclear physicist tell you that 60% enrichment is a "hair's breadth" away from the level needed for a nuclear weapon is scary.

 

I think Israel is acting appropriately.

 

 

I mean they have the second or third largest oil and gas resources in the world. Why do they need nuclear reactors? Is the ayatollah trying to do his bit for net zero?

[Sweet]

6 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Did the quick lesson lesson in nuclear science also include that it takes more than enriched Uranium to make a nuclear bomb ? - A nuclear bomb needs ignition device as well as a delivery mechanism. Both are not that simple. Having enough Uranium does not mean that they have the means to ignite it or it could just become a very dirty or inefficient bomb  if it does not work properly. Iran has hypersonic rockets but it’s not clear thy habe the means to put a nuclear warhead on it, if they had one.

Iran can mostly certainly figure the rest out.  They already have the ballistic missiles and I’m sure they can figure out ignition.

[sleepydragon]

6 hours ago, Sweet said:

Iran can mostly certainly figure the rest out.  They already have the ballistic missiles and I’m sure they can figure out ignition.

Might be able to buy it on alibaba.com

 

[Blake Hampton]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Did the quick lesson lesson in nuclear science also include that it takes more than enriched Uranium to make a nuclear bomb ? - A nuclear bomb needs ignition device as well as a delivery mechanism. Both are not that simple. Having enough Uranium does not mean that they have the means to ignite it or it could just become a very dirty or inefficient bomb  if it does not work properly. Iran has hypersonic rockets but it’s not clear thy habe the means to put a nuclear warhead on it, if they had one.

Do you not think Uranium enrichment is the most difficult part?

 

I of course don’t know, but I’d think everything past that would be relatively simple.

 

edit: and quick.

 

Edited June 22, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Dalal.Holdings]

Quote

Israel ratcheted up attacks on Iran even as Tehran vowed to retaliate against US strikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets.

 

If you told people a year ago this would be the opening of a news story and oil would only be up 0.3% at ~ $75 a barrel, they wouldn't believe you.

[Dalal.Holdings]

...and now oil is down 5% 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Ya'll thought this dude would be good for your oil stocks ?

 

  

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Quote

Trump Announces Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire to End Fighting

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-23/iran-launches-missile-strike-at-us-air-base-in-qatar-tasnim?srnd=homepage-americas

 

My condolences for oil bulls who were hoping for World War 3...

[SharperDingaan]

Nah .... the oil bulls were long positions selling into the war premium, and maintaining their exposure via calls. They will lose the premiums but more than make it back when the long positions are bought back at well under what they were sold for.

 

SD

[Dalal.Holdings]

Yep, they all sold out--with the benefit of hindsight

[SharperDingaan]

Nah, it is just a standard City market making process that exploits volatilty.

 

The long position replaced with derivatives, and the inventory sold down by selling calls and intentionally hitting the bid to drive prices higher. The buy 10,000 and get assigned on 25,000 to bleed 15,000 off and collect the net call premium. Eventually the long position is bought back for a lot less than it was sold for, and the derivative sold. Straight forward swing trade.

 

Reverse the process on the way down, and shop the now bigger position into M&A. Feed the position to bots to drive the momo trade.

 

SD

 

 

Edited June 24, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[Ulti]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arc-energy-ideas/id1438664577?i=1000714410943
 

interview with CEO of Trans Mountain Corp who runs the pipeline 

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

[fareastwarriors]

Milei Is Tapping Argentina’s Permian in a Bid to Cement His Reforms

[whiskybravo]

7 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

Milei Is Tapping Argentina’s Permian in a Bid to Cement His Reforms

I’m rooting for Argentina.  Celebrated my 50th birthday in Buenos Aires.  
Vamos Javier, tu puedes!

[Dalal.Holdings]

9 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

Milei Is Tapping Argentina’s Permian in a Bid to Cement His Reforms

 

Somehow people just keep finding more oil

[Saluki]

The market feels weird. Besides oil not budging after the US bombed Iran, afterwards the Iranians threatened to shut down the Gulf of Hormuz, and my oil tanker stocks didn't budge either. Normally, like when the Houthi attacks were going on, rerouting ships will cause a shortage and spike day rates. Everything is weird now. 

[Marco Van Basten]

9 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Somehow people just keep finding more oil

No, Vaca Muerte was known for a long time.  It's just Argentina was untouchable for many, many years.  This is not a new deposit.

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

No, Vaca Muerte was known for a long time.  It's just Argentina was untouchable for many, many years.  This is not a new deposit.

 

My point being that there's more and more oil being brought to market despite oil prices being unremarkable/low (esp on inflation adjusted terms). There's a lot more oil out there than oil bulls can admit and a lot of people willing to drill for it even though the price they get for it is nothing special...