Fairfax stock positions

[glider3834]

7 hours ago, petec said:

 

$347m deal with KW funding ~$90m and partners the rest.

 

This is equity, and KW's share of the complete or near-complete assets drops from 37% to 5-10% as part of the deal. In other words what the partners are buying is 27-32% of the equity in these assets for ~$257m. The partners get a better deal on these assets because KW is also getting the development pipeline and team.

 

If there is a fixed income opportunity it is likely later as the completed assets get refinanced, and as the development pipeline needs to be financed.

it looks like ~5.2% net rental yield on acquired portfolio 

 

[petec]

8 hours ago, glider3834 said:

it looks like ~5.2% net rental yield on acquired portfolio 

 

 

Yes, when stabilised. And KW has paid some extra for the development pipeline and the team.

[petec]

16 hours ago, dartmonkey said:

Still good for Fairfax, though, since Fairfax has a 10% stake in KW itself (worth about $120m) plus preferred stock.

 

I am really intrigued that FFH hasn't done an MBO with KW. It would be an interesting investment skillset to have in-house and I think there is value at this price.

[Hoodlum]

It seems like there is always something brewing in the background at Fairfax. 
 

If I am reading this article correctly, it looks like Fairfax has spun out The Keg from Recipe, into its own company. Then Fairfax sold a significant equity stake in The Keg to LFG Growth Partners.  

 

https://www.biv.com/news/hospitality-marketing-tourism/cactus-club-co-founder-richard-jaffrays-firm-buys-into-the-keg-11272643

BIV earlier this week was also sent an internal email from Keg president Nick Dean that has been confirmed as authentic. 

 

"Effective today, The Keg will return to be a standalone company and will be spun out of Recipe Unlimited," Dean wrote on Sept. 16. 

"The Keg will remain part of Fairfax and will report directly into a newly established board of directors. Richard Jaffray and his company, LFG Growth Partners have acquired a significant equity position in The Keg. The new board will be led by Richard as our executive chairman, to whom I will report to moving forward."

Jaffray did not respond to BIV's voicemail and text. 

 

He did provide a statement in an email saying, "The Keg is an iconic Canadian brand built over 50 years, and it has become a celebrated name while expanding its presence across Canada and the U.S. I’ve always admired The Keg and have been a longtime customer. I am very much looking forward to working with Nick Dean and the entire team at The Keg to build on its incredible legacy.”

[Hoodlum]

The Keg is now listed as one of their brands on the LFG website. 

 

https://www.lfggrowth.com

[Viking]

20 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

It seems like there is always something brewing in the background at Fairfax. 
 

If I am reading this article correctly, it looks like Fairfax has spun out The Keg from Recipe, into its own company. Then Fairfax sold a significant equity stake in The Keg to LFG Growth Partners.  

 

https://www.biv.com/news/hospitality-marketing-tourism/cactus-club-co-founder-richard-jaffrays-firm-buys-into-the-keg-11272643

BIV earlier this week was also sent an internal email from Keg president Nick Dean that has been confirmed as authentic. 

 

 

"Effective today, The Keg will return to be a standalone company and will be spun out of Recipe Unlimited," Dean wrote on Sept. 16. 

"The Keg will remain part of Fairfax and will report directly into a newly established board of directors. Richard Jaffray and his company, LFG Growth Partners have acquired a significant equity position in The Keg. The new board will be led by Richard as our executive chairman, to whom I will report to moving forward."

Jaffray did not respond to BIV's voicemail and text. 

 

He did provide a statement in an email saying, "The Keg is an iconic Canadian brand built over 50 years, and it has become a celebrated name while expanding its presence across Canada and the U.S. I’ve always admired The Keg and have been a longtime customer. I am very much looking forward to working with Nick Dean and the entire team at The Keg to build on its incredible legacy.”

@Hoodlum, this is a very interesting development. 
 

Fairfax has been quite active with its Recipe investment in 2025:

• Increased ownership in Recipe to 100%. 
• Increased ownership of The Keg to 100%. 
• Purchased Canadian rights to Olive Garden.

The first two transactions gave Fairfax 100% ownership/control of Recipe and also 100% control/ownership over all of its restaurant banners. 
 

From Recipe’s web site: “Recipe Unlimited Corporation is Canada’s leading full service restaurant company. We are a nationally recognized franchisor of choice with 1200+ restaurants located in more than 300 communities across Canada, including many international locations. Home to such iconic brands as Swiss Chalet, Harvey’s, St.Hubert, Montana’s, Kelseys, Bier Markt, East Side Mario’s, Landing Group, New York Fries, The Pickle Barrel & Catering, State and Main, Elephant and Castle, Original Joe’s, The Burgers Priest, Fresh, Blanco Cantina and Añejo.”

 

What banner is missing from this list? 

 

The Keg. It appears we have our 4th transaction of the year involving Recipe.

 

Spin off of the Keg out of Recipe, partnering with LFG Growth Partners/Richard Jaffray

 

This is super interesting. My guess is the Keg might have been Recipe’s largest banner (in terms of system sales). The Keg has 105 restaurants. The segment they service is casual upscale. 

 

My guess is there are two angles to this transaction:

 

1.) Surfacing value / monetizing an asset

 

It will be interesting to get details of the transaction:

 

What is the ownership split between Fairfax and LFG Growth Partners?

• Who is the majority partner?

Enterprise value: What is the value of the Keg as a standalone company?

 

Does the transaction surface any value for Fairfax? Do we see a realized gain when Fairfax reports results in Q3?

 

Capital structure: What is the equity / debt split? 

• With recent take private transactions at Fairfax, we have seen a large amount of the purchase price come from the issuance of debt that is held at the operating company (that is non-recourse to Fairfax). 

Is this transaction largely a cash out for Fairfax? 

 

2.) Partnering with an entrepreneur. 

 

Partnering with outstanding founders/entrepreneurs has been a consistent theme at Fairfax in recent years. 

 

Jeffrey Jaffray’s claim to fame is that he co-founded Cactus Club and built it into one of the leading casual fine dining brands in Canada. He exited Cactus Club in 2022, selling his stake to his partners (the Fuller family, who also own Earl’s). 

• https://www.cactusclubcafe.com/our-story/

Sale of Cactus Club (2022)  

• https://www.biv.com/news/hospitality-marketing-tourism/earls-owners-acquire-100-stake-cactus-club-8266770

Who is LGF Growth Partners?

 

It looks to me like LGF Growth Partners is a very different animal than Recipe. LGF is much, much smaller. Focussed on the fine dining segment. And is much more entrepreneurial. 

 

From the company’s web site:

 

“LFG Growth Partners is a team of leaders, founders, and go-getters driving growth in the hospitality industry. We build and scale brands that are inspired by culinary excellence, strategic innovation, and world-class service.

 

“Founded and led by Richard Jaffray, a nationally-recognized entrepreneur and visionary, LFG brings together a team of industry leaders with decades of experience across operations, culinary arts, finance, real estate, and design.

 

“At LFG, we believe people are the heart of every success story. We seek out greatness — in the partners we invest in and in the talent within our own team. As hands-on collaborators, we bring deep operational insight, strategic thinking and an entrepreneurial mindset to help our partners build on their success.

 

Our growing portfolio of celebrated concepts include”

 

Conclusion

 

We should get more details on the spin out of the Keg as a stand alone company at Fairfax when the company reports Q3 results in late Oct/early Nov. Based on the small amount of information we have received so far, I like it. Fairfax has done a very good job in recent years with their capital allocation decisions - my guess is this has the potential to be another good one. 

Edited September 28, 2025 by Viking

[dartmonkey]

36 minutes ago, Viking said:

This is super interesting. My guess is the Keg might have been Recipe’s largest banner (in terms of system sales). The Keg has 105 restaurants. The segment they service is casual upscale. 

St-Hubert's is pretty big, mostly in Quebec. It seems they had $1.8b in sales last year, whereas the Keg in 2023 was $740m.

 

It looks like they are transferring Keg management to someone who they think can do a better job. When we get more details, presumably with the Q3 report which is October 29, we will maybe get some idea of how much they are getting for what is likely a majority stake, and that will help us decide whether they are just taking advantage of a great price that someone offered them (à la Pet Insurance) or, if the price looks ordinary, maybe they are just throwing in the towel. Hopefully the former.

Edited September 28, 2025 by dartmonkey

[Parsad]

 

What is the ownership split between Fairfax and LFG Growth Partners?

• Who is the majority partner?  Almost certainly Fairfax is the majority partner.  LFG is very small.

Enterprise value: What is the value of the Keg as a standalone company?  

 

Does the transaction surface any value for Fairfax? Do we see a realized gain when Fairfax reports results in Q3?  The stake was probably sold at a premium...the thing to be careful of around Jaffrey is that he will spend...it was what got Cactus into trouble in the first place and why he had to sell to the Fuller's.  Jaffrey was formally one of their top managers.

 

Capital structure: What is the equity / debt split? 

• With recent take private transactions at Fairfax, we have seen a large amount of the purchase price come from the issuance of debt that is held at the operating company (that is non-recourse to Fairfax). 

Is this transaction largely a cash out for Fairfax?  No, I think it's essentially to bring in Jaffrey as a possible advisor for The Keg and also have access to what LFG builds as they continue to acquire restaurant brands...especially Nook, Hawksworth, Nightingale and Bel Cafe as stand alone brands that could be dramatically expanded.  They essentially have partnered now with David Hawksworth, one of the premier chefs in Canadian history, as well as Jaffrey, who is brilliant at developing restaurant concepts.

 

Conclusion

 

We should get more details on the spin out of the Keg as a stand along company at Fairfax when the company reports Q3 results in late Sept/early Oct. Based on the small amount of information we have received so far, I like it. Fairfax has done a very good job in recent years with their capital allocation decisions - my guess is this has the potential to be another good one. 

 

They monetized a portion of The Keg probably at a premium, which will force it to be repriced upwards on the balance sheet, maintained majority control, partnered with Richard Jaffrey who will maintain The Keg's history while refreshing the food/brand, have access to acquiring David Hawksworth's businesses and possibly any other winners that Jaffrey develops over the next couple of decades.  

 

Removing The Keg from Recipe is a good thing as Recipe is mostly made up of low-level, mid-level restaurants...The Keg is a premium brand more in line with what LFG owns.

 

It also opens up the possibility that this group may one day acquire the entire Fuller Family chain of restaurants (Earls, Cactus Club, Joeys and Birdies)...probably the best run group of restaurants in all of Canada!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

24 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

St-Hubert's is pretty big, mostly in Quebec. It seems they had $1.8b in sales last year, whereas the Keg in 2023 was $740m.

 

It looks like they are either transferring Keg management to someone who they think can do a better job. When we get more details, presumably with the Q3 report which is October 29, we will maybe get some idea of how much they are getting for what is likely a majority stake, and that will help us decide whether they are just taking advantage of a great price that someone offered them (à la Pet Insurance) or, if the price looks ordinary, maybe they are just throwing in the towel. Hopefully the former.

 

The Keg is a very busy restaurant chain...they are definitely not throwing in the towel.  You cannot find a better steak than what is offered at The Keg for the price.  The service is also usually excellent.

 

I don't think this has anything to do with The Keg.  More to do with getting Jaffrey and Hawksworth.  David is already Chair and not managing The Keg day to day and it looks like he will retire at some point.  Nick Dean is carrying on David's legacy.  Jaffrey will help take The Keg into the next couple of decades in terms of growth, refreshing the food/brand, etc...he's just brilliant when it comes to developing concepts and new restaurant designs.  You just have to make sure he's not growing too quickly, which he ended up doing with Cactus Club.  

 

Fairfax also has the capital to help fuel some of LFG's growth in their restaurant brands.  David Hawksworth's food is superb at every level through Bel Cafe to Nightingale and his flagship restaurant Hawksworth.  Especially Bel Cafe and Nightingale can be growth to fairly large numbers in terms of locations.  Nook already has multiple locations in Vancouver and is something that could also be grown to 40-50 restaurants in just BC and Alberta.  Cheers!

[villainx]

Oh man, really missed out trying the different Fairfax related Vancouver restaurants when I visited in August!

 

 

[A_Hamilton]

On 9/25/2025 at 7:54 AM, petec said:

 

I am really intrigued that FFH hasn't done an MBO with KW. It would be an interesting investment skillset to have in-house and I think there is value at this price.

FFH has done 'ok' with KW managing these commercial construction investments, but man Prem and team have been taken for a ride on the common, prefs and warrants in this. The management comp has been obscene and KW doesn't do anything to close its enormous discount to NAV. Monetize fairly liquid apartments? Nope. Cut comp to economic levels? Nope. Improve the balance sheet? Not really. Provide an expected ROI/payback period on the TOL acquisition? Nope.  I'm pretty shocked by how FFH just champions this relationship.

Edited September 29, 2025 by A_Hamilton

[MMM20]

33 minutes ago, A_Hamilton said:

FFH has done 'ok' with KW managing these commercial construction investments, but man Prem and team have been taken for a ride on the common, prefs and warrants in this. The management comp has been obscene and KW doesn't do anything to close its enormous discount to NAV. Monetize fairly liquid apartments? Nope. Cut comp to economic levels? Nope. Improve the balance sheet? Not really. Provide an expected ROI/payback period on the TOL acquisition? Nope.  I'm pretty shocked by how FFH just champions this relationship.

 

My sense is that Fairfax hasn't been particularly good at external fund selection. It's not really the same as backing Sokol. KW, Shaw Kwei, and BDT haven't been anything to write home about, right? Am I missing any others? It's a different network and you need to ensure proper incentives and monitor these sorts of factors closely. It's really a separate full-time job with entirely different networks of placement agents and whatnot. Maybe they'll get better, but I'd rather see them do more Atlas/Poseidon type deals vs. KW or BDT.

 

Edited September 29, 2025 by MMM20

[Hoodlum]

While this is a very small investment by AGT Foods, I wonder if we will see other investments by AGT in related vertical industries going forward.  

 

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-wire-news-releases-pmn/chickapea-closes-4-25m-round-led-by-agt-foods-to-fuel-north-american-growth

 

COLLINGWOOD, Ontario — Chickapea, the leading organic and high-protein pasta brand founded in Canada, today announced the successful closing of a $4.25 million CAD funding round. This significant investment will fuel the company’s continued expansion and meet growing demand across North America.
 

Led by AGT Foods, one of the largest pulse and staple food ingredient suppliers in the world, the round also welcomed a new key investor, FCC Capital. As Farm Credit Canada’s investment arm, this partner brings extensive expertise across Canada’s good and agriculture sector. Existing partner InvestEco also participated, continuing its support for the brand since 2019.

To further solidify the strategic partnership, Murad Al-Katib, President and CEO of AGT Foods, has joined Chickapea’s Board of Directors. Al-Katib is a globally recognized leader in the agri-food industry and was named EY’s World Entrepreneur of the Year in 2017. His expertise in building global, vertically-integrated supply chains will be invaluable as Chickapea scales.

 

Edited September 29, 2025 by Hoodlum

[A_Hamilton]

4 hours ago, MMM20 said:

 

My sense is that Fairfax hasn't been particularly good at external fund selection. It's not really the same as backing Sokol. KW, Shaw Kwei, and BDT haven't been anything to write home about, right? Am I missing any others? It's a different network and you need to ensure proper incentives and monitor these sorts of factors closely. It's really a separate full-time job with entirely different networks of placement agents and whatnot. Maybe they'll get better, but I'd rather see them do more Atlas/Poseidon type deals vs. KW or BDT.

 

I believe the actual "deals" that FFH has invested in with KW have been fine. The construction loans from the PACW team have been good thus far and seem generally to be good/ well protected assets given the low rise apartment nature of what they are backing. Too, some of the European deals like the state street buidling at a 10% unlevered return early on were very good.

The problem has been KW equity and the KW team paying themselves by the barge ship while shareholders are left with a toy ducky. FFH is on the board of KW and hasn't rocked the boat seemingly at all. Where are the shareholders yachts definitely applies here. 

Edited September 29, 2025 by A_Hamilton

[A_Hamilton]

5 minutes ago, A_Hamilton said:

I believe the actual "deals" that FFH has invested in with KW have been fine. The construction loans from the PACW team have been good thus far and seem generally to be good/ well protected assets given the low rise apartment nature of what they are backing. Too, some of the European deals like the state street buidling at a 10% unlevered return early on were very good.

The problem has been KW equity and the KW team paying themselves by the barge ship while shareholders are left with a toy ducky. FFH is on the board of KW and hasn't rocked the boat seemingly at all. Where are the shareholders yachts definitely applies here. 

Shameful levels of comp given this is a small cap that has failed to deliver. I own companies with the same market cap where execs are paid 1/10th what these guys are.

 

Edited September 29, 2025 by A_Hamilton

[Parsad]

This article in Vancouver Magazine makes it sound like Jaffrey bought all of The Keg!  I'm not sure LFG could swing $150M+ for even a majority stake...I'm guessing they bought 20% or less.  Cheers!

 

Cactus Club Co-Founder Takes a Juicy *Stake* in The Keg - Vancouver Magazine

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Parsad said:

This article in Vancouver Magazine makes it sound like Jaffrey bought all of The Keg!  I'm not sure LFG could swing $150M+ for even a majority stake...I'm guessing they bought 20% or less.  Cheers!

 

Cactus Club Co-Founder Takes a Juicy *Stake* in The Keg - Vancouver Magazine

 

I don't think that article makes it sound like Jaffrey bought all of the Keg.  They are using the word "stake" in their pun headline.

[petec]

21 hours ago, A_Hamilton said:

FFH has done 'ok' with KW managing these commercial construction investments, but man Prem and team have been taken for a ride on the common, prefs and warrants in this. The management comp has been obscene and KW doesn't do anything to close its enormous discount to NAV. Monetize fairly liquid apartments? Nope. Cut comp to economic levels? Nope. Improve the balance sheet? Not really. Provide an expected ROI/payback period on the TOL acquisition? Nope.  I'm pretty shocked by how FFH just champions this relationship.

 

Valid point about comp, and that may be why McMorrow doesn't want to do an MBO and give someone else the keys!

 

However KW is selling stabilised assets to improve the balance sheet. Perhaps not at the pace you'd like, but it's been a difficult market. Obviously the market tends to respond immediately to rate increases while inflationary rent increases feed through slowly. I think we are past the nadir of that cycle and it will be much easier to sell assets near full value in the next few years than it was in the last few. Also, KW embarked on a lot of new construction just before covid - appalling timing in retrospect but those assets have been completing and stabilising over the last couple of years. For both those reasons I expect the pace of sales to quicken. Full disclosure, I built a small stake in KW recently.

[A_Hamilton]

3 hours ago, petec said:

 

Valid point about comp, and that may be why McMorrow doesn't want to do an MBO and give someone else the keys!

 

However KW is selling stabilised assets to improve the balance sheet. Perhaps not at the pace you'd like, but it's been a difficult market. Obviously the market tends to respond immediately to rate increases while inflationary rent increases feed through slowly. I think we are past the nadir of that cycle and it will be much easier to sell assets near full value in the next few years than it was in the last few. Also, KW embarked on a lot of new construction just before covid - appalling timing in retrospect but those assets have been completing and stabilising over the last couple of years. For both those reasons I expect the pace of sales to quicken. Full disclosure, I built a small stake in KW recently.

They've sold some non-core Europe.

 

Fact of the matter is that there is a massive spread between the implied cap rate on their stock price and apartment pricing generally and they are doing nothing to arbitrage the difference.

 

Too, at the rate they give money and stock to management the hold co discount on the stock should be very substantial absent FFH or someone pushing them to wind up some of these assets. 

[Crip1]

21 hours ago, A_Hamilton said:

Shameful levels of comp given this is a small cap that has failed to deliver. I own companies with the same market cap where execs are paid 1/10th what these guys are.

 

Since the beginning of 2021, these 4 gentlemen have made a helluva lot more money (measured by earnings) than than the company has. Being transparent, I've not attempted to try to figure out what the company has done in terms of economic gains not measured by Net Income, but that's a long time period, 4.5 years, of senior management out earning the company. I know that Prem and co know what they're doing, so there's got to be something that I don't see.

 

-Crip

[Hoodlum]

Seaspan has signed for a couple more vessel builds with deliveries in 2027 and 2029. 

 

https://splash247.com/seaspan-seals-yangzijiang-newbuild-brace/

 

i also saw this TEU growth chart extending out to 2029 which I assume was based on the existing build plans at the end of Q2.  I could easily see this approach 15% yearly revenue growth after accounting for lease renewal increases, which hopefully translates to dividend increases.  Seaspan will be interesting to watch over the coming years.  Fairfax has FV based on 7x PE which seems very low for the planned growth.  
 

https://www.seaspancorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Seaspan-Brochure-2025-September-2025.pdf

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Viking]

Estimate of change in MV of Fairfax’s equity portfolio in Q3-2025

 

A warning. When looking at Fairfax’s equity holdings, what matters to investors is the underlying business performance achieved by the holdings over time. Not the quarterly change in market value. 

 

Short term (quarterly) changes in market value will be volatile. As a result, short term (quarterly) changes in market value should be viewed with an appropriate amount of scepticism by investors.

 

So why track quarterly changes?

 

Because it is interesting. And it can provide some insight into one of Fairfax’s large income streams - investment gains (losses) - prior to the release of quarterly earnings. 

 

Importantly, over time (like a couple of years), the change in the market value of Fairfax’s equity holdings should roughly match the change in their intrinsic business value.

 

-----------

 

In Q3-2025, Fairfax's equity portfolio increased in market value by about $589 million (pre-tax), or 2.3%. This does not include:

• The realized gain from the sale of Praktiker in Q3 ($75 million?).
• Any gain from the spin off of the Keg from Recipe in Q3. 

Fairfax's equity portfolio has performed very well in 2025:

• In Q1-2025, the increase in MV was $785 million (pre-tax), or 3.5%.
• In Q2-2025, the increase in MV was $1.96 billion (pre-tax), or 8.5%.

This puts the 9 month increase in the equity portfolio at about $3.4 billion.

 

At September 30, 2025, Fairfax’s equity portfolio had a total value of about $26.1 billion.

 

 

Notes: 

• Included in our estimates are details from Fairfax’s Q2-2025 interim earnings report and 13F report. 
• The FFH-TRS position is included in the mark to market bucket and at its notional value (this position has a market value of $3.1 billion). Convertible bonds, warrants and debentures are also included in the mark to market bucket.
• Digit: My tracker does not include Digit, Fairfax’s publicly traded P/C insurance company in India. Part of Fairfax’s ownership position in Digit is market to market. Digit’s shares were down a small amount in Q3.
• Currency: US$ weakness has been a tailwind for Fairfax in 2025. Where the benefit shows up in reported results is a little complicated (net income or OCI). 

The ‘tracker portfolio’ is not an exact match to Fairfax’s actual holdings. It is useful only as a tool to understand the rough change in value of Fairfax’s equity portfolio (and not the precise change).

 

Split of holdings by accounting treatment

 

About 49% of Fairfax’s equity holdings are mark to market - and will fluctuate each quarter with changes in equity markets. The other 51% are Associates and Consolidated holdings. 

 

 

Split of total gains by accounting treatment

 

The total change is an increase of about $589 million = $25/diluted share (pre-tax)

The mark to market change is an increase of about $337 million = $14/ diluted share. 

 

 

What were the big movers in the equity portfolio in Q2, 2025?

 

Eurobank continues its exceptional run in 2025 (and the past 5 years). Other strong performers in Q3 were Commercial Industrial Bank (Egypt), Orla (gold miner), Cleveland-Cliffs (steel producer), Foran Mining (copper start-up). The biggest laggards were FFH-TRS (Fairfax’s shares were down 3% in Q3) and Fairfax India (normal volatility). 

 

 

Excess of fair value over carrying value

 

The excess of FV over CV for non-insurance associate and consolidated holdings is about $2.68 billion or $114/diluted share (pre-tax). This was $1.5 billion at December 31, 2024. This is up significantly in 2025.

 

The 'excess of FV to CV’ has been materially increasing in recent years. This is economic value that has been created by Fairfax that is not captured in accounting results (earnings or book value) – it is one good example of how EPS and book value is understated at Fairfax. (Note, the carrying value we use in our tracker for associate and consolidated holdings is from June 30, 2025 so our excess number will be a little high).

 

Excess of FV over CV = $2.68 billion = $114/share (diluted and pre-tax)

• Associates        = $2.0 billion = $85/share 
• Consolidated    = $0.7 billion = $29/share

Equity Tracker Spreadsheet explained:

 

We have separated holdings by accounting treatment: 

• Mark to market
• Associates – equity accounted 
• Consolidated
• Other Holdings – total return swaps and warrants/debentures

The value of each holding is calculated by multiplying the share price by the number of shares. All holdings are tracked in US$, so the values of non-US holdings have been adjusted for currency.

 

This spreadsheet contains errors. It also contains some information that is dated (like the carrying value for associate and consolidated holdings). Please keep this in mind. The spreadsheet is updated as new information becomes available.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 1, 2025 by Viking

[Hoodlum]

Thanks @Viking for the Q3 Equity summary.  While I hadn't done the calculations, I was expecting the Mark to Market to be relatively flat this Qtr due to the TRS loss.  So nice to see the continued growth in this bucket.   

 

It will be interesting to see the earning from the bonds and insurance business this qtr.  The CR may still be in the 93-94 range due to low claims.  We may also see some additional long treasury sales from July, based on what Fairfax did in Q2.

 

Edited October 1, 2025 by Hoodlum

[Viking]

Good news from Orla today. It appears they may have discovered more gold at Musselwhite. Fairfax has exposure to about 102 million shares of Orla. Stock is up US$1.10/share, which is a $110 million gain for Fairfax. 

-----------

Orla Mining Discovers Potential Two-Kilometre Extension at Musselwhite

• https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/orla-mining-discovers-potential-two-100000085.html

VANCOUVER, BC, Oct. 6, 2025 /CNW/ - Orla Mining Ltd. (TSX: OLA) (NYSE: ORLA) ("Orla" or the "Company") announces major exploration success at the Musselwhite Mine in northwestern Ontario, with drilling confirming a potential two-kilometre extension of the mine's main gold trend beyond current resources.

 

...Resource Growth: With greater confidence in expansion potential, Musselwhite will be positioned to pursue opportunities that increase throughput, enhance gold production, and extend mine life significantly beyond current projections.

 

[Hoodlum]

7 minutes ago, Viking said:

Good news from Orla today. It appears they may have discovered more gold at Musselwhite. Fairfax has exposure to about 102 million shares of Orla. Stock is up US$1.10/share, which is a $110 million gain for Fairfax. 

-----------

Orla Mining Discovers Potential Two-Kilometre Extension at Musselwhite

• https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/orla-mining-discovers-potential-two-100000085.html

VANCOUVER, BC, Oct. 6, 2025 /CNW/ - Orla Mining Ltd. (TSX: OLA) (NYSE: ORLA) ("Orla" or the "Company") announces major exploration success at the Musselwhite Mine in northwestern Ontario, with drilling confirming a potential two-kilometre extension of the mine's main gold trend beyond current resources.

 

...Resource Growth: With greater confidence in expansion potential, Musselwhite will be positioned to pursue opportunities that increase throughput, enhance gold production, and extend mine life significantly beyond current projections.

 

 

Gold is now at $3950, about to break through $4k.   Angico and Newmont sold their stakes (combined 24.5%) in ORLA last month to individual investors, which created an initial drag on the stock price.  Once they resolve the Camino Rojo Pit Wall issue, then we will see further upside to the stock price.