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What "tells" do you notice about people?


LongHaul
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I would be very curious what "tells" people have noticed which usually correlate to certain character traits?

 

One that I heard recently was when someone uses the word I to describe something that a group of people did it  usually means the person has a big ego. 

 

Another is if someone treats waiters and others who can really do nothing for them like crap - they are probably not a very nice person to deal with.

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One that I heard recently was when someone uses the word I to describe something that a group of people did it  usually means the person has a big ego. 

 

I've worked with many people who says "I" with regards to the business.  I'm out of stock on this.  My display case, my kitchen, my boardroom, my secretary etc. when the entire business shares these or an owner owns them.

 

Funny, when I typed "my display case", I saw big Hoss from Pawn Stars in my head. He routinely uses I or my when he speaks of the business his dad and grandfather co-own (they mentioned one time grandpa owns 51% and dad owns 49%, 0 for Hoss until he inherits it).  And his ego is as big as he is....

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How emotionally immature someone is/dead at the wheel so to speak. The more one gets threatened by conversations around possibility OR the more feeds into survival and scarcity conversations. It becomes a self-selecting mechanism in creating incredibly powerful environments as people stuck in scarcity simply weed themselves out. Falls under the principle: "set the conditions, see who shows up to the party". In this case, create a conversation and see who engages and see who gets threatened and walks away. Simple.

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Jay Z is known to extract everything he knows from his mentors and then disregard them and move on.  He's done it a few times.  I've known some talented people like that in the investment business.  If you're discussing possibly giving them money to manage, just keep in mind that they may see you as a stepping stone as well. 

 

People who have no moral qualms about stealing stuff, forks, plates, etc from fast food joints/restaurants.  Stealing is stealing whether it's $5mm or $5 plate from a restaurant.  It is not yours. 

 

If you're renting a house/apartment to someone and they say they will be back with the deposit.  if they don't show, don't give a second chance unless something really extraordinary happened like a car accident.  They are already telling how they will be as a tenant, unreliable. 

 

A girl who had one asshole boyfriend maybe unlucky. A Girl who has had two asshole boyfriends may or may not have bad luck.  A girl who has had three asshole boyfriends or more is actively looking for asshole boyfriends.  She's not looking for the nice guy who is going to care and provide for her. 

 

People who are so philosophical that they refuse the social norms, such as chipping in $10-20 for a pizza dinner.  Because they are so technological progressive and the reason being cash is stupid.  Everyone should pay with digital.  My view is "F*)* your philosophy, throw in a few bucks and be nice."  If you can't be nice, you're likely too Sheldon Cooper for my taste. 

 

If your girlfriend/wife cheats once, she'll do it again.  I had to explain this concept to a fund manager once.  He was involved in a situation where he lied to by CEO once already (assets transfered out of the company).  He quoted some book that he read about China.  I told him that's the same as your girlfriend cheating on you once.  He insisted he won't be wronged again. 

 

People post non-stop on Facebook with memes cannot objectively assess a situation. 

 

If it's never their fault, never become acquainted with them. 

 

If someone has to win every argument, they've got a big ego.  If you say "fine, you win.  I do not want to argue or fight." and you see the excitement drain from their face.  They are not worth your aggravation.  The fight and the argument is the glue of your relationship.  Unless you want to bath in that toxicity, you're better off ending it. 

 

Saying I'm sorry, I messed up, I was wrong, and then correcting their behavior are great traits. 

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If someone counters a trend or statistic or general statement with a personal anecdote "debunking" it they can not be reasoned with.

 

I hear where you're coming from, but sometimes this just isn't right. Maybe not "debunking" - but sometimes an anecdote tells the full story. Statistics and historical data can tell you some things, but a story can tell you a lot more and in a way you can understand the underlying reasons.

 

I'll give you an example: people on this website talk about brands and brand power and all that Coke Charlie Munger stuff. Take Disney. You can look at the financials, and say, "wow they've got a real strong business - strong brand". But you don't really know why. This is where an anecdote helps. You read something like this (

) and you suddenly know exactly WHY Disney has a brand and a great business.
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If someone counters a trend or statistic or general statement with a personal anecdote "debunking" it they can not be reasoned with.

 

I hear where you're coming from, but sometimes this just isn't right. Maybe not "debunking" - but sometimes an anecdote tells the full story. Statistics and historical data can tell you some things, but a story can tell you a lot more and in a way you can understand the underlying reasons.

 

I'll give you an example: people on this website talk about brands and brand power and all that Coke Charlie Munger stuff. Take Disney. You can look at the financials, and say, "wow they've got a real strong business - strong brand". But you don't really know why. This is where an anecdote helps. You read something like this (

) and you suddenly know exactly WHY Disney has a brand and a great business.

 

That's not an attempt at debunking, that's just further information or a hypothesis on an underlying mechanism. A "debunking" would be that Disney haven't got a good brand (despite survey data, despite park visits, etc) because your niece didn't like Mulan. Anecdotes do have some value as indicators, they just don't trump data.

 

Holding up an anecdote against data is like trying to lay claim to the pot with an Ace high when your opponent has a full house. Someone who thinks anecdotes trump data is not reasoning logically. Either due to some underlying emotional issue (cognitive disonnance, personal attachment, social taboo, etc) or just the clinical state of not being very smart. Either way, one should stay clear of the ensuing discussion.

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Anecdotal evidence is tricky.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evidence

 

"Anecdotal evidence is not accepted as proper proof or scientific evidence for good reason, yet they still dominate people's thinking. This is because while facts and figures may be true, they are difficult for people to relate to. Anecdotes have convincing and strong narratives that resonate with people on a key individual level — someone telling an anecdote will lead the listener to think that it just could happen to them too. There are further biases at work. Anecdotes, even implausible ones, can contain a high level of detail. It is this detail that causes people to become involved in the story and to imagine it more clearly..."

 

Humans are social animals.

 

When analyzing a company, I try first to look at numbers and objective facts and then try to incorporate the "story" part into the thesis. It is a form of reasonable confirmation when the story supports the data as it may help to project what is ahead. I remember scotthall describing this phenomenon rather well elsewhere on this Board although he seemed to put a large emphasis on the story part.

 

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Business is not emperical science, there are no universal physics formulas.

Repeat the same business experiment multiple times and you will get different results; hopefully normally distributed around a single mean.  Data is just one of MANY inputs, not the deciding input.

 

Most business decisions are made using a Balanced Scorecard, and numbers will typically contribute no more than 1/3 of the content. Business judgement, and 'people' impacts are as LEAST as relevant as the financial analysis; and the inputs for these are experience (anecdotal evidence in a different form). Sniff tests.

 

Fail the sniff tests, and the numbers are irrelevant.

We just don't want to hear it.

 

SD

 

 

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If someone counters a trend or statistic or general statement with a personal anecdote "debunking" it they can not be reasoned with.

 

Good one :) cheers!

 

yes and no.

 

I find a lot of theory to be "debunkable' based upon my anecdotal evidence.  I take it that at least sometimes, the theory lacks common sense or is too disconnected from real world.  now my anecdotal evidence may not be your anecdotal evidence, but I am happy to live my life living in accordance with my anecdotal evidence and not yours.

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I was just listening to an interview with Jeff Bezo and he finds that when anecdotes contradict metrics at Amazon, the anecdotes tend to be right. He went on to say that while metrics are important, you need to check them with intuition because you could be measuring the wrong thing.

 

Topic starts around 15 mins mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPbKeNghRYE&t=911s

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