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LounginMKL

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Everything posted by LounginMKL

  1. Just found out that this Sunday is National Cinema Day and many major theater chains are offering $4 tickets, including Oppenheimer in IMAX. I just scored a Opp-IMAX ticket in the third row, all the way to the left, which reminds me of this meme.
  2. We arrived at the annual meeting 30 minutes prior to the "company movie" and sat at the front of one of many overflow rooms. We moved to the main room during the lunch break, as seats become available after all the "tourists" left. IMO, it's a good trade-off because we could wake up at our normal hour, eat breakfast, and slowly make our way to the venue. The parking wasn't bad at all.
  3. That leather-jacket-wearing son of a gun, Jensen Huang, and his niece Lisa Su.
  4. Ok- y'all have convinced me to go out and get a SFH, pronto!
  5. Thanks. I'm lazier and just pulled from this article- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html I always wonder about that- thanks for sharing.
  6. a short clip that summarize their thesis.
  7. I guess it depends on where are you in 2013. In the Bay Area, I vividly remember the sentiment shifting in the Spring of 2013, follow by a jump in house price. The price has been going up since. Yes, I've read that 12.3 million American households were formed from January 2012 to June 2021, but just 7 million new single-family homes were built during that time. We add the tradesman shortage, inflated land cost/ building materials, local NIMBYism; and we have a multi-year tailwind in the making... I think she was talking about all the new supplies that are coming online in the Sunbelt states, say the fringe of Phoenix? Zelman also mentioned that despite the Great CA Exodus narrative, there are only 0.3% of the population that moved out of CA (based on the USPS change of address). She was also talking about affordability- there is only so much rent increase you can extract, before people say "no." She seems to suggests that a lot of underwritings are depending on continued rent growth and this may not be realistic. With inflation eating away discretionary income, people's finances are getting strained.
  8. I recently came across Ivy Zelman, who seems to be a well-respected housing market analyst. I think she made some good calls back in 2006 and 2013, as evidenced by the above video. Lately, there are lots of uniformed optimism for residential housing (including multi-family) in the market and this board so it's interesting to hear a contrarian view. There are a lot of videos on YT but the one I watched is Her general thesis: Tremendous amount of institutional capital has been raised to be deployed into SFH build-to-rent and multifamily markets (she specifically called out the Phoenix market). Much optimism has been built into the underwriting process such as the ability to raise rent. Couple that with the slowest household formation in the past decade, we will be looking at an oversupply and not a housing deficit. This will lead to many dissappointed investors who are expecting double digit lever returns.
  9. This guy can say it more eloquently than I can. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/thinkingaboutmacro.pdf
  10. "Anthony Bourdain in his former TV show “No Reservations” did a profile of old school restaurants in one episode on “Lost Manhattan” and pointed out that the old school restaurants that are left own their own buildings. They are able to stay “old school” in the restaurant business only because they are their own landlords. If they had just been tenants, they would have been priced out of business in Manhattan long ago. " https://25iq.com/2013/06/12/wholesale-transfer-pricing-and-the-free-parking-business-model/
  11. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/a-jet-owned-by-candy-giant-hershey-made-an-unusual-trip-to-omaha-analyst-says.html A classic move from Bud Fox "ahhh, my boss is going to kill me. Do you know where that plane is going?"
  12. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/nobody-knows-ii.pdf Some clarity of thoughts in the midst of chaos.
  13. A seasoned RE person reminded me of another reason to use an agent- legal liabilities. He mentioned that selling SFH in California can create a lot of disclosure liabilities on the seller. If I do not cross the T's or dot the I's, I could open myself up to a lawsuit. Because of this, FSBO/internet has not made a dent on the residential brokerage industry. Hiring a broker indemnifies the seller (me).
  14. I would negotiate commish...after getting a good offer. of course if I get an offer at full asking price I dont negotiate the commish but I haven't seen a full price or bidding war in a couple of decades personally, but one way getting an improved result after the offeror stands pat and the net is lower than you would like is to then simply ask broker to move a bit...and he/she likely will and happily will to cement sale...but dont piss off your broker before getting the listing by trying to discount commish. A little unethical, no? Most listing agents, from what I've seen, would require you to give exclusivity of 3 -6 months before the property is listed.
  15. Agree. Maybe most people just don't want to put in the effort or need an "advisor" because the stake is so high...
  16. Has anyone here done FSBO before? I don't see them around often, whether it's because they are poorly marketed, poorly priced, or buyer's agents don't want to deal with FSBO listings. Freakonomics certainly supports FSBO, but I wonder why the FSBO hasn't really taken off, and Redfin/Zillow hasn't had much success in disrupting the industry. http://freakonomics.com/2008/02/26/real-estate-agents-revisited/ "We find no evidence that the use of a broker leads to higher average selling prices, or that it significantly alters average initial asking prices. However, those who use brokers sell their houses more quickly."
  17. We can try to push the commission as low as possible and select an agent primarily based on that number. However, I wonder what we are missing on the aggressiveness of the agent to get you the top dollar. Hard question as this is the road not traveled. I remember when I was young, my mom got her friend to sell her house. The day before it went on the market, we received 3 offers for the listing amount. We did not counter and just picked one. Thinking about that still makes my blood boil until this day.
  18. We are looking to maximize price (timing isn't an issue) so I believe having staging and a good marketing plan is the way to go. The property is in the Bay Area so selling home shouldn't be a problem. Just looking for ways to sift through all the agents that were referred... @ Spekulatius- 4.5%? How is that split? 2.5% buyer and 2% seller? If 2.25% each side, I wonder if that would drive away buyer's agent? @ Gregmal- Agree. I was advised to stay away from star agents who leave his/her minions to do all the tactical work.
  19. We are in the process of selling a single-family home for my family and I want to see if the CoBF community can provide some collective wisdom around this topic. I'm sure a lot of us have to go through this a few times in their lives. Well, it's my first time. Referral After asking for referrals from a local professional group, I was overwhelmed by the responses (seems like everyone loves their broker). Then I learned that the referred brokers usually share 20-30% of their gross commission with the referring brokers. Well, that's a pretty strong incentive to refer without much skin in the game. Ideally, I would ask for a referral from my personal network, but I don't have a local network in this case. What are some of the best ways you would source listing agents? Interview I find it difficult to differentiate the realtors with generic questions like: - How many active listings do you have at a time - What's your specialty? - How will you market my home? - Can you provide some references? All realtors have been through this enough to have good answers. Team: We have a social media and contract person that focus on what they do best. One-man-band: I can give the listing my full attention; "you are always dealing with me." I remember reading that behavioral/ situation interview questions are the best way to predict future performances. So I'm thinking of some questions that could tease out their differences - Given offer A, B, C, how do you evaluate the offers and make a recommendation? - Tell me a time when you had a communication problem with a client? - Describe a situation when you had a dilemma during a transaction. How did you deal with it? What other questions do you like to ask when your listing agent?
  20. @ DooDiligence- I just want to tend to my cash flow. =) @ JayGatsby- How passive was it? I think we expect to visit the shop once a week at the beginning (for 6 hours), then eventually drop down to once 3-4 weeks. Not sure if this is the right expectation. From what I understand, no small business is really an absentee business, even though the broker markets it as such.
  21. Does anyone have experience investing and managing SMOG shops? I love to hear your thoughts on the business. What are some pitfalls/stories you've experienced? I can see it producing stable cash flow but I'm also cognizant of the price sensitivity and long headwind (EV and more efficient vehicle) that would reduce the volume of the industry. Recently, new legislation passed where vehicles of 8 yrs (from 6 yrs) or less do not need SMOG test. As a result, revenue is lower this year and the opportunity is re-priced. A few partners and I are thinking of acquiring an established one in CA. The cash-on-cash yield is decent but it's not an absentee business. (Then again, is there a true absentee business?) Part of the motivation is to gain some operating experience in my spare time.
  22. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/crypto-pioneer-pays-4-57-million-for-lunch-with-warren-buffett The headline says it all.
  23. My 2 cents Valuation Last round has the valuation @ $31B in 2016. I would assume the IPO price will be materially higher, barring any change in the market. VRBO vs Airbnb I've been a short-term rental host for a few years, renting out a 5 BR place. My impression is that VRBO caters to vacation home crowd- large parties (families with 8-10 ppl) from Middle America. Airbnb draws younger parties (friends with 8-10ppl) from the Costal States, along with some business parties. User interface / experience- Airbnb is MUCH better than VRBO. Booking- I drew 50% booking from VRBO and 50% from Airbnb. When I was renting to smaller parties (2-4 ppl), I would find enough liquidity in Airbnb to just use it exclusively. Btw, a good HBR article on platform strategy https://hbr.org/2019/01/why-some-platforms-thrive-and-others-dont
  24. For those who can't access BRK website at the moment, CNBC has the letter. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/23/full-warren-buffett-annual-hareholder-letter-read-it-here.html
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