Jump to content

LounginMKL

Member
  • Posts

    103
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About LounginMKL

  • Birthday 12/17/1980

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

LounginMKL's Achievements

Apprentice

Apprentice (3/14)

  • Conversation Starter
  • Dedicated
  • First Post
  • Collaborator
  • Week One Done

Recent Badges

0

Reputation

  1. Just found out that this Sunday is National Cinema Day and many major theater chains are offering $4 tickets, including Oppenheimer in IMAX. I just scored a Opp-IMAX ticket in the third row, all the way to the left, which reminds me of this meme.
  2. We arrived at the annual meeting 30 minutes prior to the "company movie" and sat at the front of one of many overflow rooms. We moved to the main room during the lunch break, as seats become available after all the "tourists" left. IMO, it's a good trade-off because we could wake up at our normal hour, eat breakfast, and slowly make our way to the venue. The parking wasn't bad at all.
  3. That leather-jacket-wearing son of a gun, Jensen Huang, and his niece Lisa Su.
  4. Ok- y'all have convinced me to go out and get a SFH, pronto!
  5. Thanks. I'm lazier and just pulled from this article- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/america-is-short-more-than-5-million-homes-study-says.html I always wonder about that- thanks for sharing.
  6. a short clip that summarize their thesis.
  7. I guess it depends on where are you in 2013. In the Bay Area, I vividly remember the sentiment shifting in the Spring of 2013, follow by a jump in house price. The price has been going up since. Yes, I've read that 12.3 million American households were formed from January 2012 to June 2021, but just 7 million new single-family homes were built during that time. We add the tradesman shortage, inflated land cost/ building materials, local NIMBYism; and we have a multi-year tailwind in the making... I think she was talking about all the new supplies that are coming online in the Sunbelt states, say the fringe of Phoenix? Zelman also mentioned that despite the Great CA Exodus narrative, there are only 0.3% of the population that moved out of CA (based on the USPS change of address). She was also talking about affordability- there is only so much rent increase you can extract, before people say "no." She seems to suggests that a lot of underwritings are depending on continued rent growth and this may not be realistic. With inflation eating away discretionary income, people's finances are getting strained.
  8. I recently came across Ivy Zelman, who seems to be a well-respected housing market analyst. I think she made some good calls back in 2006 and 2013, as evidenced by the above video. Lately, there are lots of uniformed optimism for residential housing (including multi-family) in the market and this board so it's interesting to hear a contrarian view. There are a lot of videos on YT but the one I watched is Her general thesis: Tremendous amount of institutional capital has been raised to be deployed into SFH build-to-rent and multifamily markets (she specifically called out the Phoenix market). Much optimism has been built into the underwriting process such as the ability to raise rent. Couple that with the slowest household formation in the past decade, we will be looking at an oversupply and not a housing deficit. This will lead to many dissappointed investors who are expecting double digit lever returns.
  9. This guy can say it more eloquently than I can. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/thinkingaboutmacro.pdf
  10. "Anthony Bourdain in his former TV show “No Reservations” did a profile of old school restaurants in one episode on “Lost Manhattan” and pointed out that the old school restaurants that are left own their own buildings. They are able to stay “old school” in the restaurant business only because they are their own landlords. If they had just been tenants, they would have been priced out of business in Manhattan long ago. " https://25iq.com/2013/06/12/wholesale-transfer-pricing-and-the-free-parking-business-model/
  11. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/a-jet-owned-by-candy-giant-hershey-made-an-unusual-trip-to-omaha-analyst-says.html A classic move from Bud Fox "ahhh, my boss is going to kill me. Do you know where that plane is going?"
  12. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/nobody-knows-ii.pdf Some clarity of thoughts in the midst of chaos.
  13. A seasoned RE person reminded me of another reason to use an agent- legal liabilities. He mentioned that selling SFH in California can create a lot of disclosure liabilities on the seller. If I do not cross the T's or dot the I's, I could open myself up to a lawsuit. Because of this, FSBO/internet has not made a dent on the residential brokerage industry. Hiring a broker indemnifies the seller (me).
  14. I would negotiate commish...after getting a good offer. of course if I get an offer at full asking price I dont negotiate the commish but I haven't seen a full price or bidding war in a couple of decades personally, but one way getting an improved result after the offeror stands pat and the net is lower than you would like is to then simply ask broker to move a bit...and he/she likely will and happily will to cement sale...but dont piss off your broker before getting the listing by trying to discount commish. A little unethical, no? Most listing agents, from what I've seen, would require you to give exclusivity of 3 -6 months before the property is listed.
×
×
  • Create New...