I guess it depends on where are you in 2013. In the Bay Area, I vividly remember the sentiment shifting in the Spring of 2013, follow by a jump in house price. The price has been going up since.
Yes, I've read that 12.3 million American households were formed from January 2012 to June 2021, but just 7 million new single-family homes were built during that time. We add the tradesman shortage, inflated land cost/ building materials, local NIMBYism; and we have a multi-year tailwind in the making... I think she was talking about all the new supplies that are coming online in the Sunbelt states, say the fringe of Phoenix? Zelman also mentioned that despite the Great CA Exodus narrative, there are only 0.3% of the population that moved out of CA (based on the USPS change of address). She was also talking about affordability- there is only so much rent increase you can extract, before people say "no." She seems to suggests that a lot of underwritings are depending on continued rent growth and this may not be realistic. With inflation eating away discretionary income, people's finances are getting strained.