Japan opportunity

[LC]

18 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

My cement play Taiheiyo Cement 5233 is up another 3% plus today - anyone knows why? Did the “Iron lady” come up with an infrastructure program? Half the time, I have no idea why shares go up and down, sometimes significantly. I am not complaining in this particular case, but it’s a bit concerning at times.

 

Not sure - I followed you into 5233. I noticed another cement company I track (Monarch cement) also up materially. 

[Spekulatius]

Taiheiyo bought the Californian  readymix cement business form VMR:

https://www.taiheiyo-cement.co.jp/english/summary/pdf/251028.pdf
 

$712M in cash. This is substantial for Taiheiyo. I expect the stock to be down today.

[hasilp89]

18 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Taiheiyo bought the Californian  readymix cement business form VMR:

https://www.taiheiyo-cement.co.jp/english/summary/pdf/251028.pdf
 

$712M in cash. This is substantial for Taiheiyo. I expect the stock to be down today.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251021293730/en/Palliser-Capital-Publishes-Value-Enhancement-Plan-for-Taiheiyo-Cement
 

palliser going activist (edit: likely the price spike on the 21st)

Edited October 29, 2025 by hasilp89

[hasilp89]

and look at that - palliser pointing out how their US operations are better than Amrize's

@Marco Van Basten - have you had a look at this japanese cement co?

Edit: presentation is interesting - has a case study of the amrize spin as they recommend the same for calportland.

 

Edited October 29, 2025 by hasilp89

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, hasilp89 said:

and look at that - palliser pointing out how their US operations are better than Amrize's

@Marco Van Basten - have you had a look at this japanese cement co?

Edit: presentation is interesting - has a case study of the amrize spin as they recommend the same for calportland.

 

I have not.  I avoid Japanese companies due to corporate governance reasons.  Why do you like this company?  Thank you.

[hasilp89]

@Marco Van BastenI just started looking at it today - so no view - just thought the Amrize comparisons where interesting. I believe @Spekulatius has owned it as part of a basket and i saw his question on the recent price jump and later saw that Palliser had taken an activist position and released a presentation.

 

They are the market leader in Japan, but the market has been slowly declining. 

It seems their US business may have some value but it needs to be unlocked.

 

It seems some Japanese businesses are finding religion when it comes to capital allocation. Still hard for to predict though. 

Edited October 30, 2025 by hasilp89

[Spekulatius]

On 10/29/2025 at 1:44 PM, hasilp89 said:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251021293730/en/Palliser-Capital-Publishes-Value-Enhancement-Plan-for-Taiheiyo-Cement
 

palliser going activist (edit: likely the price spike on the 21st)

Thank you, I was not aware of this activist. The acquisition from Vulcan for $712M looks expensive  but is a bolt on to their existing assets in California. I own some Taiheiyo as part of my Japan basket. I think their Japan business should have some promise because cement prices are rising there too and they have the largest market share so they hopefully can start to generate some prints there. besides the Us business and Japan, they have some scattered business in the SE Asia as well.

 

[Spekulatius]

On 8/20/2025 at 7:16 PM, Spekulatius said:

3836 Avant Group. Very encouraging results.

https://data.swcms.net/file/avantgroup-corp/dam/jcr:4038374d-491e-45b9-a86b-c3dec7bd183c/140120250805530352.pdf

If they make their 2028 targets, the stock would be a double without multiple expansion.

Good results again. Holding my shares:

https://data.swcms.net/file/avantgroup-corp/dam/jcr:7b0625b2-ecd7-4db1-b656-6b21dde19f5a/140120251031584580.pdf

[Thelilyinvestor]

6 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Good results again. Holding my shares:

https://data.swcms.net/file/avantgroup-corp/dam/jcr:7b0625b2-ecd7-4db1-b656-6b21dde19f5a/140120251031584580.pdf

Any idea why growth rates and margins are so volatile? They are always positive, but difficult to make decent predictions about the long term growth rate of the business.

[Spekulatius]

13 hours ago, Thelilyinvestor said:

Any idea why growth rates and margins are so volatile? They are always positive, but difficult to make decent predictions about the long term growth rate of the business.

Avants Groups result look fairly consistent to me. They tend to see a larger rise in revenue in Q4 but a drop in operating profit for the same quarter. This was less pronounced  this year than in former years.

 

So there are some seasonal factor at play here.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/japan-china-sanae-takaichi-xi-jinping-d5d1a97d?mod=hp_lead_pos8

 

Takaichi is more outspoken, but that could bite back too

 

Quote

Next, it was Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who was infuriated by her remark that Japan would likely get sucked into a war if China made a move on Taiwan. Takaichi’s comment ignited an economic and political pressure campaign that has seen Beijing berate Tokyo at the United Nations, cancel tourist flights to Japan and threaten a ban on imports of Japanese seafood.

The result for Takaichi? Buoyant approval ratings for her month-old government. 

 

Quote

In attacking Takaichi, China is aiming to destabilize her fledgling administration, said Yinan He, an associate professor at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania and an expert in Sino-Japanese relations. Beijing is also firing a warning shot at Taiwan’s allies in Asia and ultimately the U.S., she said. 

 

“In Chinese they call it ‘kill the chicken to scare the monkey,’” she said. “They will want to hurt Japan severely enough this time so that everyone else will be scared.”

 

[Spekulatius]

Yeah, China also treated the Japanese delegation like second class emissaries. This is obviously done to cater to their domestic audience.

 

I think it’s also obvious that Takaichi lacks experience.

Edited November 24, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Malmqky]

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[Spekulatius]

Bought a bit of the spinoff (from Hamee 3134) that Rich is pitching (pre spinoff).

 

The newco is NE Corp 441A and if the estimates are correct  they are going to make ~59 Yen in earnings next year. The business seems mature with slow (high single digit ) topline growth.This is an ecommerce SAAS business (simplifying e-commerce across several outlets for vendors).

 

 

Edited December 5, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 9/22/2025 at 7:51 AM, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Mitachi (3321) raised its earnings forecast...now projecting that current FY (ends in May) Sales up to 105B JPY (from 100B JPY), Op Profit 2.25B JPY (up from 2.0B JPY), and EPS of 220 JPY/Share (up from 188 JPY/Share).

 

Traded up over 10% on the news, still at a P/E of 7 for current year forecast and next FY expected to be even better as Denso business gets more integrated...

 

 

Mitachi again raised forecast. Expected Sales of 110B JPY, Op profit 2.45B JPY, Net income 1.9B JPY, EPS 238 JPY this FY which ends May 2026. Stock has been rising (up 60% YTD), but P/E of 7-8 still (~15B JPY mkt cap). Also raising the dividend from 60 JPY per share to 70 JPY per share for the year.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/bf8b5def-db4d-43ac-91cf-bea5fcfa3189

 

Quote

Japan has urged the US to give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi more public support after expressing frustration at the level of backing she received following comments about Taiwan that enraged China. Tokyo thinks top US officials have not offered enough support for Japan, according to current and former US and Japanese officials, after China lashed out at Takaichi for saying a Chinese attack on Taiwan could pose an “existential threat” that would justify Japan deploying its military. Shigeo Yamada, Japan’s ambassador in Washington, has asked the Trump administration to step up its public support for Tokyo, according to people familiar with the diplomatic discussions.

Takaichi acting like a bigger China hawk than DJT...

 

Quote

Takaichi on Sunday said Chinese warplanes had locked their radars on to Japanese fighter jets south-east of Okinawa on Saturday, in what she described as an “extremely regrettable” incident.

China escalating back...

Edited December 7, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[LC]

Seems like it’s open season on US allies. If I’m Japan, I start firing up that nuclear program. Anyone know of good nuclear / defense plays in Japan?

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, LC said:

Seems like it’s open season on US allies. If I’m Japan, I start firing up that nuclear program. Anyone know of good nuclear / defense plays in Japan?

Toshiba?
https://www.global.toshiba/ww/products-solutions/nuclearenergy.html

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 12/4/2025 at 9:46 PM, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Mitachi again raised forecast. Expected Sales of 110B JPY, Op profit 2.45B JPY, Net income 1.9B JPY, EPS 238 JPY this FY which ends May 2026. Stock has been rising (up 60% YTD), but P/E of 7-8 still (~15B JPY mkt cap). Also raising the dividend from 60 JPY per share to 70 JPY per share for the year.

 

Mitachi 3321.T was very good to me. Delivered > 100% in a year. I've exited with the recent pop.

[Spekulatius]

New position 4091 Nippon Sanso. Industrial gas co co. It’s cheaper than US ir European peers (APD, LIN.DE) but they have some work to do improving margins and ROI. The stock has done fairly well over the last few years but not so much recently. I think it’s. Great stalwart stock.

 

I added a bit to 6099 Elan co. This is more growthy and controlled by another co (which may buy out minority investors ). They supply hospital and nursing homes with uniforms etc, so it s a bit like Cintas or UNF. It seems to me like they can continue to growth for a while,

Edited January 29 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

Pretty good results from Elan. Seems like they should make the forecast of 53 yen in earnings growing ~15%. The stock may have been underreacted to the earnings release

https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/6099/ir_material3/272857/00.pdf

 

4091 Nippon Sanso (industrial gas) also did OK. My two software co’s 9928 and 3836 had mediocre earnings. Same with Tacmina pump 6322.

Edited February 5 by Spekulatius

[DooDiligence]

This is a year old and may have already been posted here or somewhere.

 

https://am.jpmorgan.com/fi/en/asset-management/adv/insights/etf-perspectives/japan-corporate-governance-shareholder-value/

[Spekulatius]

Sold my Holding in 7745 A D Holon. The reason to own it was their semiconductor business which had by far the highest profit margins. They have some metrology (e- beam microscope for photomasks etc) that seems to have some initial traction and then stalled.  Now I saw in the latest report that the backlog is way down. I am not sure why the stock went up a little and may have missed something, but I sold my shares. Made a profit with that one but would have been better off investing in other companies in this space.

 

[rogermunibond]

Excellent take from Pimco on the +s and -s to the Takaichi landslide

 

https://archive.ph/39uUK

[Spekulatius]

Has anyone looked at Bandai Namco 7832. It’s a GME developer (Ace Combat etc) and IP company (action figures etc). Lot’s of IP which they are monetizing more. They even have their own film studio for what looks like niche content. I think Japanese IP in general is undermonetized and gets more popular over time (Manga, Anime, hentai etc).

 

Bandai is not cheap optically (20x earnings ) but they have shown some growth, have a great balance sheet and have even bought back a little stock. So they are better than Nintendo in some respects. I am thinking of staring a small position for my JO basked and wonder if anyone looked at the stock or owns it.