Question For Those That Voted For Trump

[rkbabang]

@rk

 

"I still have no idea what this guy is going to do."

 

i would say i have no idea what this guy will get done. 

 

Trump's R majority in senate is thin and guys like mccain, graham and rubio are unreliable (though i see they will endorse tillerson).  i think trump thinks he can will the senate to follow through trumpian leadership, but he is going to find out that presidential leadership involves more back scratching than his form of leadership is used to.

 

we have gone from no drama obama to a guy who likes to stir the pot.  media actually loves this, so this is going to be a circus for next 4/8 years.  now you know why ringling is closing shop

 

This is what I said back in May:  "I won't be voting, but I do hope Trump wins. Hillary scares the hell out of me and Trump will be entertaining to watch."

 

So far I have not been disappointed.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

And this is particularly concerning on a message board of "value investors" and supposed Buffett and Munger disciples; you know, people who are supposed to look past the circus and at the raw facts.

 

 

 

 

This hasn't been a "value investing" message board in a few years. It's basically a politics board with some investing thrown in.

 

Where the problem arises is with all the namby-pamby, tootie fruity protests like the Women's March, where millions of people are now attempting to discredit our incoming President on the world stage before he has had the chance to Make America Great Again. We must remain diligent and not allow these radicals to take us off course when we are so close to seeing through our plans of the first American National Bankruptcy.

 

No one understands the knife's edge that America is on like Donald Trump and it is time that those of you who haven't supported him buck up and put nation before ideology.

 

The hypocritical butthurt is real.

 

People will protest trump, he'll have to learn to grow a thicker skin. I remember when Trump tried to discredit his predecessor by doubting whether he was born in the U.S....

 

Karma is a b**** and at least Obama could handle criticism and not melt down every time he felt his poor ego was hurt. So much butthurt.

[AzCactus]

I get that this is the general discussion thread.  That said, what's the point ?  We already know that he's in office.  Can't we all just get along and accept it...I would be interested to see if a similar thread existed for Obama during either of his terms. 

[tooskinneejs]

But can you explain why they spent nearly 4 minutes of a 5 minute and 46 second press conference on the crowd size?  You don't believe that was even more petty and stupid than the Martin Luther King bust reporting by the press? 

 

Try something for me and let me know if this changes your perspective on the press conference.  Every time Spicer says "Trump" or "President", replace it with "Kim Jong-Il" and "Supreme Leader".  If those same comments came from North Korea, you would think it was effing crazy!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amz62uUYPeo

 

I agree with you on the importance of news reporting.  Not sure why you took a shot at me as well in your post with the "Maybe you don't" comment.  All that aside, I believe you would agree with me that accuracy in reporting by the President and his staff is even more important than the reporting by the Press, correct?

 

And disclosure of the President's finances, business relations, etc is as important from a conflict of interest perspective as well, is  it not?  Cheers!

 

Sorry for my grumpiness.  I'm just tired of the anti-productive bickering between politicians and the fact that no one is giving the guy a chance to show whether he will do good for the country.  The press should be honest and not focus on petty things and Trump should respond less to trivial matters like this.  And yes, I agree that accuracy is equally important on both sides.

[RichardGibbons]

I get that this is the general discussion thread.  That said, what's the point ?  We already know that he's in office.  Can't we all just get along and accept it...I would be interested to see if a similar thread existed for Obama during either of his terms.

 

The point is that there's value in discussing ideas and making an effort to fight against ideas that you think are tremendously destructive. Most people are reluctant to change their minds once they have espoused a particular view.  Thus, there's value in showing public opinion before people make up their minds.

 

For instance, if a communist were elected, I think there would be a lot of value in making it very clear that people don't want their businesses nationalized and private property taken away.  If you just get along and accept it, as you suggest you would do, then the communist leader won't hesitate to implement all their ideology.  If 1% of the population protests, then they'll think twice about nationalizing everything because they know that there will have a real fight on their hands.

 

That said, I agree somewhat in spirit with your point. Ideally, we would be in the situation to have a win-win exchange of ideas, for everyone to share their thoughts and identify the best way to run the country.  There's ideas from the right that make sense, and there ideas from the left that make sense.  But nobody sees any of the good ideas because everyone's so focused on defending their ideology to the point of irrationality. And how do you get to an open discussion of ideas if the person at the top is demonstrably lying about the most trivial of facts?

 

The core problem is that politics today is viewed as more of a sporting event with winners and losers than a co-operative endeavor where, through spirited debate, we're constantly trying to find the optimal solution for the country.

 

 

[rkbabang]

The core problem is that politics today is viewed as more of a sporting event with winners and losers than a co-operative endeavor where, through spirited debate, we're constantly trying to find the optimal solution for the country.

 

The optimal solution for any problem is never found using aggressive offensive force.  Markets may often arrive at optimal or near optimal solutions to problems, governments almost never will.

 

 

[RichardGibbons]

The optimal solution for any problem is never found using aggressive offensive force.  Markets may often arrive at optimal or near optimal solutions to problems, governments almost never will.

 

Yeah, that's a perfect example of what I meant by "everyone's so focused on defending their ideology to the point of irrationality". We could have a productive discussion that allows some of the great libertarian ideas to actually be adopted for the benefit of the nation. Instead, you'd rather cling to this ridiculous notion of governmental violence that, while true in theory, makes absolutely no sense in practice.

 

[villainx]

I get that this is the general discussion thread.  That said, what's the point ?  We already know that he's in office.  Can't we all just get along and accept it...I would be interested to see if a similar thread existed for Obama during either of his terms.

 

I'm hoping to get some idea what you folks think Trump will do that will impact stocks.

[Alekbaylee]

 

On the other hand, it has helped me with one thing.  I look at all these countries that are communist, fascist, dictatorships, Venezuela etc. and I think, "how did that country end up that way?  Why did the people so easily surrender their free press and freedom?".  Then these threads come along and help me answer that question.  (Mostly with variants of, "I don't care if he puts everyone in the country in shackles as long as he improves the economy.")

 

 

+1

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/america-you-look-like-an-arab-country-right-now-214678

[beerbaron]

I have been thinking about it and Donald Trump "Alternate Fact" theory fit perfectly well with Daffy Duck's alternate reality... I cracked the code guys, the US elected a cartoon character.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqcMxy7BbP4

 

Note I might be watching too much kid's shows lately.

 

BeerBaron

 

 

[Parsad]

 

And this is particularly concerning on a message board of "value investors" and supposed Buffett and Munger disciples; you know, people who are supposed to look past the circus and at the raw facts.

 

 

 

 

This hasn't been a "value investing" message board in a few years. It's basically a politics board with some investing thrown in.

 

I'm not sure that is a fair assessment.  Show me another message board or investment website with as comprehensive a database of comments and analysis on equities like we have in the "Investment Ideas" section without "internet trolls"?  How about a list of investing/finance/psychology books with comments from readers, other than on sites like Amazon, etc?

 

Politics may seem annoying at times, but history shows that how politicians handle periods of crises, can ultimately decide the severity and duration of the eventual outcomes.  Whatever people may want to say about Obama, and really Dubya as well, in my opinion the overall outcome of the financial crisis was handled relatively well by both, when you look at the magnitude of how things could have unfolded and how fast liquidity disappeared.  How would things have turned out under Clinton, Reagan, Roosevelt, Nixon, Kennedy...and Trump? 

 

Studying the historical actions and outcomes of political leaders, and their parties, actually can provide investors valid information in making decisions.  Ultimately, as value investors, we base our decisions on fundamentals.  But during some periods of excess or crisis, macroeconomic events can have significant, and long-term effects...such as the Great Depression, World War 2, the creation and likely breakup of the European Union, etc.

 

Cheers!   

[cwericb]

If anyone thinks this is mainly a political discussion board than they have likely been drawn to certain specific threads involving politics, rather than the board overall.

 

Having said that, one might keep in mind that politics in the U.S. has taken a major turn in politics that can and will have a substantial impact on markets both in the U.S. and around the world.

[Cardboard]

I think that many of you miss the forest for the trees. I also think that a lot of the leftist money managers on this website should be highly thankful to the American people for electing Trump since otherwise they would have had a lot of explaining to do with their clients for poor returns had it not been for this late stage rally.

 

While Trump is unable to be politically correct and will keep on making inflammatory statements, here is what the tangible actions are since he is in on Friday:

 

1- Monday: meets with business and union leaders to discuss job creation, producing locally, taxes, regulations.

2- Today: meets with the big 3 auto CEO's again on the same topic. NBC reports that he will push ahead with Keystone XL and Dakota pipeline.

3- .... You get the picture?

 

I find that a whole lot better than the communist well spoken orator that we have had for 8 years. All he could do was to tell bankers that he was the only protection between them and the furious public. Then he regulated and created this no hope, no dream, moribund atmosphere. Well, maybe that I am vastly exagerating but, he certainly did not live up to my expectations of Hope and Change.

 

I will make the two following predictions and you can laugh at me in 4 years or before if I am wrong:

 

1- In 4 years, the world will do more trade than ever before and by a long shot. When America is at the top of its game, then everyone has to up its game. What people perceive as a trade war will turn into a massive push for every country to be more efficient and innovative which will drive up jobs, growth and innovation. Quite different than this zero sum game being played now.

 

2- China will no longer be communist. If we can get rid of this regime then the Taiwan, South China Sea, Hong Kong and North Korea issues go away. I do believe that it is the strategy of this administration or to liberate the Chinese people from this evil. If you are looking for a Hitler then look to this leadership instead and these comments are exactly what Hitler used to get to power following The Crash:

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/23/china-we-can-lead-world-after-crisis-in-western-democracy-capitalism.html

 

Cardboard

 

 

 

 

[jeffmori7]

I think that many of you miss the forest for the trees. I also think that a lot of the leftist money managers on this website should be highly thankful to the American people for electing Trump since otherwise they would have had a lot of explaining to do with their clients for poor returns had it not been for this late stage rally.

 

While Trump is unable to be politically correct and will keep on making inflammatory statements, here is what the tangible actions are since he is in on Friday:

 

1- Monday: meets with business and union leaders to discuss job creation, producing locally, taxes, regulations.

2- Today: meets with the big 3 auto CEO's again on the same topic. NBC reports that he will push ahead with Keystone XL and Dakota pipeline.

3- .... You get the picture?

 

I find that a whole lot better than the communist well spoken orator that we have had for 8 years. All he could do was to tell bankers that he was the only protection between them and the furious public. Then he regulated and created this no hope, no dream, moribund atmosphere. Well, maybe that I am vastly exagerating but, he certainly did not live up to my expectations of Hope and Change.

 

I will make the two following predictions and you can laugh at me in 4 years or before if I am wrong:

 

1- In 4 years, the world will do more trade than ever before and by a long shot. When America is at the top of its game, then everyone has to up its game. What people perceive as a trade war will turn into a massive push for every country to be more efficient and innovative which will drive up jobs, growth and innovation. Quite different than this zero sum game being played now.

 

2- China will no longer be communist. If we can get rid of this regime then the Taiwan, South China Sea, Hong Kong and North Korea issues go away. I do believe that it is the strategy of this administration or to liberate the Chinese people from this evil. If you are looking for a Hitler then look to this leadership instead and these comments are exactly what Hitler used to get to power following The Crash:

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/23/china-we-can-lead-world-after-crisis-in-western-democracy-capitalism.html

 

Cardboard

 

And climate change will remain a hoax...

[rkbabang]

And climate change will remain a hoax...

 

I personally think that the evidence is substantial that climate change is not a hoax. But since I don't think any government should do anything about it.  I'd much rather have a president that thinks it's a hoax than otherwise.

[Cardboard]

No you are wrong Jeffmori7.

 

With a more friendly business climate, innovation will thrive, start-ups will emerge and new developments will be made in CO2 free sources of energy that you cannot even think of today. As they become increasingly cost competitive, they will take a greater place in our energy mix.

 

So instead of bureaucrats and idiots like Trudeau dictating what people should do or picking winners, it is the free market that will decide which technology wins.

 

So for you tree hugger, I will make this 3rd prediction:

 

3- In 4 years, the world will be generating a lot more of its electric capacity from non-CO2 emitting sources.

 

Cardboard

[rkbabang]

3- In 4 years, the world will be generating a lot more of its electric capacity from non-CO2 emitting sources.

Cardboard

 

Exactly.  There are also ways to scrub CO2 from the atmosphere if it comes to that. There are plenty of ways science, the market, technology, etc. will handle this problem, there is no need for luddite green earth goddess worshipers to get government to make us all poorer in the process.  So Trump thinks it's a hoax?  Good. He'll do the right thing (nothing) for the wrong reason.  Much better than doing the wrong thing for the right reason, IMHO.

 

[jeffmori7]

No you are wrong Jeffmori7.

 

With a more friendly business climate, innovation will thrive, start-ups will emerge and new developments will be made in CO2 free sources of energy that you cannot even think of today. As they become increasingly cost competitive, they will take a greater place in our energy mix.

 

So instead of bureaucrats and idiots like Trudeau dictating what people should do or picking winners, it is the free market that will decide which technology wins.

 

So for you tree hugger, I will make this 3rd prediction:

 

3- In 4 years, the world will be generating a lot more of its electric capacity from non-CO2 emitting sources.

 

Cardboard

 

You could be right, but I still think that if you set the bar too low, people will just aim for that. Just ask them to reach some target and they will find a way to get there. Be flexible on the means, but more rigid on the target. And the more you invest in pipeline and oil extraction today, the less you have to invest elsewhere, so I am worried that the short term profit and after us the flood is driving the market more than anything else. Let's see what happens, but I will continue to advocate for a faster transition by igniting innovation and research based on science.

[onyx1]

Since we are making predictions 4-years forward, I'll offer another:

 

Race relations in America, as measured by opinion polls, will show overwhelming improvement from today.

[Cardboard]

"You could be right, but I still think that if you set the bar too low, people will just aim for that. Just ask them to reach some target and they will find a way to get there. Be flexible on the means, but more rigid on the target."

 

Why is it the government's job and their protege's (read conflict of interest) to set targets? Why don't you let the collective minds of people ask and do what they need? Do you believe that the Chinese need a "target" to know that they need to stop using coal around Beijing?

 

"And the more you invest in pipeline and oil extraction today, the less you have to invest elsewhere,..."

 

This is also incorrect. Capital will flow to the highest return area and as CO2 free technology get cheaper, that is where it will go. It is undeniable that oil is getting more complex and more expensive to extract (watch the price over the last 40 years) while CO2 free sources are getting cheaper. And if the oil fundamentals get tighter and with it price as I think they will, these other sources of energy will see an enormous boost in capital flow.

 

By the way, why do you worry about pipeline owners? They are the ones making the choice to ask for and to build pipelines. It is not your responsibility nor the government's responsibility to prevent them from losing money by making a bad investment. All the government should do is to force them to put into a trust fund required funds to dismantle the whole thing once they are done with it.

 

Cardboard

[Guest cherzeca]

re climate change "He'll do the right thing (nothing) for the wrong reason."

 

+1

[mhdousa]

 

And this is particularly concerning on a message board of "value investors" and supposed Buffett and Munger disciples; you know, people who are supposed to look past the circus and at the raw facts.

 

 

 

 

This hasn't been a "value investing" message board in a few years. It's basically a politics board with some investing thrown in.

 

I'm not sure that is a fair assessment.  Show me another message board or investment website with as comprehensive a database of comments and analysis on equities like we have in the "Investment Ideas" section without "internet trolls"?  How about a list of investing/finance/psychology books with comments from readers, other than on sites like Amazon, etc?

 

Politics may seem annoying at times, but history shows that how politicians handle periods of crises, can ultimately decide the severity and duration of the eventual outcomes.  Whatever people may want to say about Obama, and really Dubya as well, in my opinion the overall outcome of the financial crisis was handled relatively well by both, when you look at the magnitude of how things could have unfolded and how fast liquidity disappeared.  How would things have turned out under Clinton, Reagan, Roosevelt, Nixon, Kennedy...and Trump? 

 

Studying the historical actions and outcomes of political leaders, and their parties, actually can provide investors valid information in making decisions.  Ultimately, as value investors, we base our decisions on fundamentals.  But during some periods of excess or crisis, macroeconomic events can have significant, and long-term effects...such as the Great Depression, World War 2, the creation and likely breakup of the European Union, etc.

 

Cheers! 

 

You're right. I was being excessively harsh. But I (and others who have contacted me through PM) feel that the board would be much improved if political discussions were aggressively moderated. You're right that political events can have effects. But that is not close to what is being discussed here. Most of the posts in this thread have absolutely nothing to do with investing. They are attacks on either politicians or other posters.

 

 

[jeffmori7]

Cardboard as an example, take safety requirements in cars, they have probably advanced much more rapidly because of regulations. Market will optimize cashflow, not other externalities if they are not priced right. This is the same for greenhouse gas. I am not asking the governement to decide everything, but we can agree that there is a cost to carbon that is payed by the whole society or postponed in the future while some are piling cash now. There is a way to correct this to account for the failure in this blinded capitalism using a corrected cost. It is the same that we should do to protect biodiversity from which we all benefit, make sure that if you do damage, you take into account the cost. I just don't believe that a total free market optimize the good thing. This is my worry about pipeline owners, as well as the fact that in the end, greenhouse gas will have non-linear consequences where it is much more profitable to remove them faster. If you just look at the current expenses side, you could conclude that market will be right, but those doesn't take into account future expenses that could be larger in the free market scenario than in the corrected market scenario. And I still think that we are playing a dangerous experiment, because we have a tendency to let things go a little bit too far before we act (i.e. air pollution in China is a good example).

 

Oh and once again, for the benefit of every readers, I don't want you to see it as a personal thing between Cardboard and me, I am sincerely worried about all this stuff and Cardboard enables me to have this interesting discussion on those topics that I think are fundamental in this century.

[ScottHall]

 

And this is particularly concerning on a message board of "value investors" and supposed Buffett and Munger disciples; you know, people who are supposed to look past the circus and at the raw facts.

 

 

 

 

This hasn't been a "value investing" message board in a few years. It's basically a politics board with some investing thrown in.

 

I'm not sure that is a fair assessment.  Show me another message board or investment website with as comprehensive a database of comments and analysis on equities like we have in the "Investment Ideas" section without "internet trolls"?  How about a list of investing/finance/psychology books with comments from readers, other than on sites like Amazon, etc?

 

Politics may seem annoying at times, but history shows that how politicians handle periods of crises, can ultimately decide the severity and duration of the eventual outcomes.  Whatever people may want to say about Obama, and really Dubya as well, in my opinion the overall outcome of the financial crisis was handled relatively well by both, when you look at the magnitude of how things could have unfolded and how fast liquidity disappeared.  How would things have turned out under Clinton, Reagan, Roosevelt, Nixon, Kennedy...and Trump? 

 

Studying the historical actions and outcomes of political leaders, and their parties, actually can provide investors valid information in making decisions.  Ultimately, as value investors, we base our decisions on fundamentals.  But during some periods of excess or crisis, macroeconomic events can have significant, and long-term effects...such as the Great Depression, World War 2, the creation and likely breakup of the European Union, etc.

 

Cheers! 

 

You're right. I was being excessively harsh. But I (and others who have contacted me through PM) feel that the board would be much improved if political discussions were aggressively moderated. You're right that political events can have effects. But that is not close to what is being discussed here. Most of the posts in this thread have absolutely nothing to do with investing. They are attacks on either politicians or other posters.

 

Excuse me. The idea that a bunch of adult men and women cannot moderate their own conversations is ridiculous; it is exactly this kind of nanny state bullshit that got America into this predicament in the first place with the Social Security and Medicare entitlements. It's why we're on the verge of America's first national bankruptcy and it's important to understand that so we never get into this situation again.

 

Now you want Parsad to take the same tactics that have ruined the greatest country on earth and apply them to his message board. If you think the message board has declined from what it used to be now, just wait until we all have to watch our tongues or risk public spankings from the administrator.

 

Give me a break. This kind of intervention does not work and it's important that we are all open and honest about it so that we can Make America Great Again.

[valcont]

Excuse me. The idea that a bunch of adult men and women cannot moderate their own conversations is ridiculous; it is exactly this kind of nanny state bullshit that got America into this predicament in the first place with the Social Security and Medicare entitlements. It's why we're on the verge of America's first national bankruptcy and it's important to understand that so we never get into this situation again.

 

Now you want Parsad to take the same tactics that have ruined the greatest country on earth and apply them to his message board. If you think the message board has declined from what it used to be now, just wait until we all have to watch our tongues or risk public spankings from the administrator.

 

Give me a break. This kind of intervention does not work and it's important that we are all open and honest about it so that we can Make America Great Again.

 

Scott is one of my favorite posters here. His videos are so hilarious that I had a hard time breathing since I am laughing so hard. On the other hand, some of his investment thesis are rock solid.Unlike other posters, I just can't put him in a slot. Scott, you should consider poker.